Brexit Part XXIX: Boris for PM and the inevitable sinking of the EU

As we have often described in the context of Breaking the Code of History, Prime Minister May falls into the model of a dictator post a regional civil war, employing the energy of force and coercion to keep both previously warring factions together for the sake of the nation’s future. However, May does not have the force or energy to pull this role off. Indeed, she could be described as the accidental dictator, whose delusional self-image got the better of everyone else’s judgement.

Meanwhile, the Conservatives are in no position to tolerate another disastrous loss at the polls; a spectre that looms very large after the Conservative Party's conference and May’s dire speech. Hence, the knives will be out and I believe May will be gone by Christmas at the very latest. So, who will be next? Well, the choice for the Conservatives is very simple. They need a prospect who is someone who has proven that he/she can lead and win when the choice is offered to the people. That rules out another accidental candidate Amber Rudd, whose margin in her own constituency was far too small. It also eliminates Philip Hammond with his inability to connect with the electorate on an emotional level and his mistaken belief that austerity is the right economic medicine. Yes, there will inevitably be a dark horse that has a profile but is not proven in battle.

Thus, the only choice will be Boris as the next PM. Noticeably, he very smartly did not challenge May in his speech, but rather supported her as Brutus never becomes Caesar in politics. He has matured in the past year in his post of Great Office of State and I think by the model of Breaking the Code of History's leadership profile that he is the only possible candidate in the field. Now, I did not say he was optimal, but he is the only choice for the Conservatives and Britain.

Let's go back to Brexit and two key points. When in 1904 the Entente Cordiale was signed, the negotiations between Britain and France had taken only six months. Yes, in just six months complex differences that had defined an almost permanent state of conflict between the two nations for centuries were discussed and resolved never to resurface. Why? Because the growth of the German power in Europe threatened both nations and it changed the calculus of their relationship.

Similarly with the Brexit negotiations, remember they will not be over until the last minute of the last day of the deadline. So, do not let the over-emotional, conservative British press panic you into thinking that time is running out. Next, with a new PM fully committed to Brexit, the negotiating gaps perceived by the EU will be quickly closed. Lastly, I have always maintained that, by 2019 and the end of negotiations, the EU in its current form will be in terminal decline driven by two forces. One being the secession of some members of the EU, the social force of which today Catalonia falls dead centre. Secondly, the bond markets will collapse in the EU zone and create a political crisis that will break the EU in two. In all probability, the two will be closely linked. The result will be that Britain becomes a safe haven for capital and the sterling will soar. To the extent that it will kill any exporters who have not forward hedged their currency.

To summarise the situation with a parable. We were on the forward deck of the Titanic taking some evening air, when we saw the iceberg ahead and watched it rake the side of the ship. Believing that the damage was catastrophic we got into the first lifeboats and rowed away. When at a safe distance we stopped and took stock, the ship was still floating apparently undamaged, no other lifeboats had left and the lights were on. We asked ourselves if we had made the wrong choice and would the unsinkable ship patch the damages and sail off leaving us to die alone? Just as we pondered this issue, it became discernable that the Titanic was down at its bows. Next, we saw a second lifeboat being lowered and the panic to escape began. Catalonia is that second lifeboat fleeing from the EU, and the EU's collapse is now all but assured.

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