Murrinations

Market Outlook: Oil Long Term - Bearish

The powerful drop from $150 to $32 in 2009 was impulsive. Since then we have seen a correction in Big B back up to $116 in 2011 and since then have been in the second phase of a bear market that has yet to be completed with a low sun $22.

View valid below $78.

Market Outlook: Oil Medium Term - Bearish

The $78 high in late 2018 made the end of the wave 4 correction and since then we have been coiling to make a new low. The secondary high at $67 is significant and we should not see prices above that level.

Market Outlook: DAX Long Term - Bearish

The Dax has been the strongest of the European stock markets and is the only one to emulate the dynamism of the S&P 500 (to a large degree!) However the party is now over and the high in place at 13700 is the pivot point. Below which we are bearish and expect prices to decline to 10200 and 8000 and possibly as low as 6000 when the western debt crisis hits.

Market Outlook: DAX Medium Term - Bearish

We expect a sequence of lower highs and lows as the downside energy coils. Bear stops at 13200 and 13600. Meanwhile, the recent rally labeled wave 2 looks to be a good entry point (currently at 12400).

Market Outlook: FTSE 100 Long Term - Bearish

The FTSE 100 has been a weaker version of both the S&P 500 and DAX. But much stronger than the rest of the European stock markets. Whilst below 8000 we are bearish and expect a decline to the 6500 zones, to be followed by ultimate bear targets as low as 4000 in the next 24 months.

Market Outlook: FTSE 100 Medium Term - Bearish

The FTSE 100 has been coiling energy for its decline, with a five wave decline from 7800 to 6500 and a correction back to 7600 as the S&P has made new highs.

Bearish below 7900.

Market Outlook: China 300 Long-Medium Term

The China 300 has been in a bear market since 2016.

With the five wave move from 4500 to 3000, the recent sharp rally must still be viewed as corrective and we expect long term targets in the 2500 region and possibly lower to complete this consolidation.

china-300-medium-term

Market Outlook: India 50 Long Term

India 50 has been performing very well to date. However, it has completed a five wave rally since 2016 and now looks set to decline to 1000 at a bare minimum whilst below 12300.

This is inline with every other major stock market in the world.

Market Outlook: Dollar Yen Long Term - Bullish

The Dollar-Yen pair ended its decline in 2012 and since then has been appreciating as the dollar has weakened and the Yen has strengthened. The first impulse from 76 to 126 could either be part of a three-wave or a five wave larger structure.

Market Outlook: Dollar Yen Medium Term - Bullish

The Dollar-Yen Big 2 or Big B wave looks to be complete. Whilst there is a chance of a thrust lower before the long term rally unfolds, the dollar index suggests that the break out to the high side is imminent. Use 104.80 as the pivot, being long above it looking for a breakout of 112/113. Any move below 104.80 suggests that there will be a thrust lower before long term scenario unfolds.

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