Arkite Alerts Archive

World War III, China's ascension, why David Murrin thinks the West is already checkmated and why Churchill was left-handed.

This conversation was recorded on March 18th, 2026, before recent developments, but Murrin’s framework for understanding them remains depressingly relevant.

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An increasing number of people think World War III is coming. However, David Murrin thinks they’re about four years too late.

It's just a rumour that was spread around town
Somebody said that someone got filled in
For saying that, people get killed in
The result of this shipbuilding. Elvis Costello

The geopolitical forecaster who predicted the 2008 financial crisis, Brexit, and Trump's election joins me this week with a thesis that should make you uncomfortable: America's empire is dying on schedule, China's ascension is mathematically inevitable, and your political leaders are systematically selected for their inability to see it coming.

David does not hold back!

The Maths of Empire

Murrin didn't pull these ideas from thin air. He's spent decades mapping what he calls the Five Stages of Empire, a cycle as predictable as tides, and about as stoppable. Think of it as geopolitical science: Regionalisation, Ascension, Maturity, Overextension, and finally, the awkward dinner party conversation where nobody mentions that Grandpa Empire is clearly losing his marbles.

According to Murrin's models, America is firmly in Stage Five. China is in Stage Two. You do the math(s).

Also covered in this interview:

• Iran's $50 Drone vs America's $2 Million Interceptor
• Why Smart People Can't Run Countries (And Why That Might Be the Point)
• The Coming Commodity Supercycle
• The Singularity Arms Race
• What This Means for You

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 Anric Blatt's  View of the World

This quarter, three independent macro frameworks built by three different minds across three decades all converge on the same window.
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• David Murrin’s empire cycle. I consider him the finest global macro forecaster alive. His “Breaking the Code of History” model predicted Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, identified the conditions for Middle East escalation in this exact timeframe, and placed the commodity supercycle peak in the 2025-2027 window. If you haven’t read his work, start there.
• Neil Howe ‘s Fourth Turning. The generational architecture that explains WHY the institutions are breaking.⠀
• Ray Dalio ‘s debt cycle. Which borrows from Murrin’s earlier work in ways that deserve far more public acknowledgement than they’ve received. The overlap in concepts, the five-stage model, the commodity cycle timing, and the hegemonic transition framework. too significant to chalk up to parallel thinking. Readers of both will draw their own conclusions. I’ve drawn mine.

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Three lenses. One verdict. We are inside the convergence window. Right now. Through 2030.

The primary framework behind this report belongs to David Murrin - His book “Breaking the Code of History” is, in my view, the most important work on empire cycles, geopolitical forecasting, and the K-wave commodity cycle that exists today. 

I have known David for over twenty years. He used to fly in to advise our team at Infiniti Capital AG at our annual partners’ meetings on our lake in Italy. Those sessions changed how I see the world. Not the markets. The world. There is a difference, and David taught me to see it.

Over those years, a professional relationship became a genuine friendship. If there is one person on earth I would choose to go into business with, it is David Murrin. Not because he is brilliant, which he is. Because he is honest. And in the rooms I spend my time in, honest brilliance is the rarest commodity of all.

His website is davidmurrin.co.uk. His work deserves your attention. Start with “Breaking the Code of History”

If you would like to follow Global Forecaster’s daily analysis of the trajectory of this regional Middle Eastern conflict, you can upgrade to Gold or Platinum to access our prediction strings—offering some of the most comprehensive open-source intelligence assessments of unfolding events. CHOOSE YOUR SUBSCRIPTION | David Murrin

Meanwhile, for Asset Managers, our Market Views across all asset classes, our Price models have been spot on. Can you afford not to know? Engage David

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Podcast: Oil Wars, Resignations, and the Durand Line

In the latest episode, David and Horatio dive into a fortnight of rapid global escalation that threatens to upend energy markets and western security.

As drone attacks target critical bypass pipelines in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, we ask if the world's last "workarounds" for oil are about to fail.

A look at the shock departure of Joe Kent and the growing internal fractures regarding U.S. involvement in the Middle East.

While the West is fixated on Iran, an "open war" has broken out between Pakistan and Afghanistan. We discuss the conflicting narratives, the collapse of diplomacy, and why this border could be the world's most dangerous oversight.

Stay ahead of the curve.

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There is no change to our analysis:

Trump has let loose the dogs of war as we outlined in WW3-90; Trump 33: His Venezuela Gamble Has Unleashed the Dogs of War. From the first missile fired, we have maintained the view that this is an escalating long war, in stark contrast to the major collective delusion that it would be another short 12-day war.

However, the scale of delusion in global markets is likely to be stripped away as the Gulf conflict escalates, forcing a rapid reassessment of risk as volatility spikes. For weeks, markets have priced in a contained confrontation, assuming that energy flows—particularly through the Strait of Hormuz—would remain largely unaffected. That assumption is now increasingly fragile.

As the conflict intensifies and shipping disruptions become total, energy markets will begin to reflect the true strategic risk imposed by teh IRGC war strategy, driving oil and gas prices sharply higher on a sustained basis. This shift in market perception will not be gradual; it will be abrupt, as traders move from complacency to crisis pricing, recognising that the shutdown of the Gulf and the destruction of its energy production infrastructure will have outsized global economic consequences.

So far, our predictions of the war's course have been very accurate. We continue to argue that the war is set to escalate in both scope and intensity, with a high risk that China will soon also commence a war in the Pacific. Hence, the trends are only in their early stages with huge potential returns to come.

Despite the ongoing bullish rhetoric, Trump’s War against Iran is not going well, but is hopelessly off track and increasingly out of control. Having lost the initiative, Trump has effectively fallen into an IRGC “bear trap,” where the conflict is now being shaped on Iran’s terms rather than his own. As such, its duration will be far longer than the majority expect; American forces will be drawn into the threat, and oil prices will rocket to $250 as the full 20 billion barrels per day from the Gulf stops flowing and the infrastructure for energy production is laid waste on all sides by increasingly intense and destructive exchanges of missile, bombs and drone Fire.

Murrination gold Insights

Our views on the war are detailed in our extensive Murrination insights-

• Iran's War on Israel and America 27:Trump Has Underestimated Iran’s “Martyrdom Mindset”
• Iran's War on Israel and America 26:The Battle for the Gulf and Strait of Hormuz -Part II The USN Counter A2/AD Strategy
• Iran's War on Israel and America 25:Trump is Caught In An Iranian Bear Trap
• Iran's War on Israel and America 24:The Battle for the Gulf and Strait of Hormuz -Part I Iran's A2/D2 Strategy
• WW3 107: Iran’s War with Israel 23: The Big Picture Escalatory Path to China Declaring War
• WW3 106: Iran's War on Israel and America 22: Epic Fury - Midcourse Interceptor Depletion Will Be A Strategic Opening for China
• WW3 102: Iran's War On Israel 21: Chinese Support of Iran Makes The Inevitable War Highly Escalatory

Murrination Platinum Insights

Then, each day, in our Platinum level, we update every Murrination string with the latest relevant information to our Gold Insights with related developments and our analysis—creating one of the most comprehensive and forward-looking open-source intelligence products available.

If you would like to follow Global Forecaster’s daily analysis of the trajectory of this regional Middle Eastern conflict, you can upgrade to Gold or Platinum to access our prediction strings—offering some of the most comprehensive open-source intelligence assessments of unfolding events. CHOOSE YOUR SUBSCRIPTION | David Murrin

Meanwhile, for Asset Managers, our Market Views across all asset classes, our Price models have been spot on. Can you afford not to know? Engage David

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David and Horatio discuss the escalation in the regional Iranian war. Going into depth about where and when this began and how this conflict may look in the coming months and years. 

We also go over the other current conflicts in the globe right now, Pakistan and Afghanistan and Russia and Ukraine. Mentioning the complex dynamics that are involved in these very different but interlinked situations. 

Stay ahead of the curve.

Listen Now

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The New Quantum Fibonacci dynamics impacting Markets and Geopolitics

What do galaxies, ancient monuments, financial markets, and quantum physics have in common? The Fibonacci sequence. Far from a mathematical curiosity, new research suggests Fibonacci geometry may be a universal stabilisation principle — operating across space, time, and even market cycles. This article explores how breakthroughs in quantum quasiperiodic science reinforce the fractal logic behind Elliott Wave theory and Global Forecaster's five-phase model of empire. A compelling read on why resilience — in markets, systems, and civilisations — may depend on adaptive, non-repeating patterns rather than rigid cycles.

Read the full article now

Dear Arkite,

Listen to my latest interview on the Longview podcast: Longview Conversations with David Murrin: Is the West Sleepwalking Into WWIII?

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In this fifteenth instalment of Longview Conversations With, CEO Chris Watling speaks with David Murrin — geopolitical strategist, market forecaster, and founder of Global Forecaster — in a wide-ranging discussion on war patterns and geopolitical tensions. Murrin, originally a geophysicist in Papua New Guinea, developed an early interest in collective human behaviour that shaped his work across markets and conflict. After JP Morgan and co-founding Emergent Asset Management, he launched Global Forecaster, advising governments, militaries, and financial institutions.

His 2009 book Breaking the Code of History outlines his Five Stages of Empire and 108–112 year hegemonic war cycle theory, frameworks behind his non-consensus forecasts. The conversation explores this war cycle and today’s position within it, alongside his fractal, quantum-inspired view of market behaviour during conflict. Murrin argues tensions around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz may persist longer than markets expect, supporting elevated oil prices. He also highlights Western strategic weakness and declining defence capacity, while pointing to China’s steady build-up as it positions itself as the next hegemonic power. We hope you enjoy it.

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Based on our analysis outlined in

1. Iran's War on Israel and America 24:The Battle for the Gulf and Strait of Hormuz -Part I Iran's A2/D2 Strategy
2. Iran's War on Israel and America 26:The Battle for the Gulf and Strait of Hormuz -Part II The USN Counter A2/AD Strategy
3. Iran's War on Israel and America 25:Trump is Caught In An Iranian Bear Trap

Even if the United States saturates the campaign for control of the Gulf and Strait of Hormuz with the full range of sensors and combat assets outlined in this Murrination insight report, the operation to secure the Strait of Hormuz could be completed within three to four months. However, we anticipate that the United States may struggle to deploy and sustain such a high operational tempo, potentially extending the conflict well beyond that timeframe.

In addition, well before that point, there is a high probability that the depletion of American mid-course interceptors, the concentration of US naval and missile defence assets in the Gulf at the cost of Pacific and Atlantic deployments, and the disruption of oil flows as production facilities are damaged during missile/bomb exchanges will generate significant strategic compression. This will, in high probability, provide China with an opportunity to launch a major military campaign across the Pacific without warning to seize control out to the third island chain, potentially in parallel with a Russian escalation against NATO.” A view outline in-

WW3 107: Iran’s War with Israel 23: The Big Picture Escalatory Path to China Declaring War

So find out more -  Trump is Caught In An Iranian Bear Trap, and the implications for you, and  get ahead of the pack - 

Subscribe now to  Murrinations Gold

Strategic Compression as a Catalyst for Hegemonic Wars: Historical Cycles and Contemporary Implications

Why do rising powers so often launch wars they cannot win? This article argues that a recurring structural phenomenon, strategic compression, plays a central role. As states expand through population growth, economic strength, and internal unity, they inevitably meet resistance from the powers already dominating the system. That resistance narrows their options, creating pressure to act aggressively before conditions deteriorate further, even when the timing is poor.

The pattern repeats across centuries. Revolutionary France, Imperial Germany in 1914, Nazi Germany in 1939, and Japan in 1941 all followed strikingly similar trajectories — expansion meeting containment, followed by high-risk gambles born of perceived necessity.

The article places these dynamics within longer economic and geopolitical rhythms, drawing on Kondratiev Wave theory and the roughly 108–112-year cycle of hegemonic conflict. It then turns to the present, examining how compression shapes China's strategic calculus and Ukraine's regional position. The concluding section offers policy recommendations for Ukraine and Eastern Europe, focusing on resilience, anticipation, and collective approaches to managing systemic pressure.

Download Article

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Find out more

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Einstein famously observed that doing the same thing over and over again while expecting a different result is the definition of stupidity and insanity; a warning that seems relevant to recent U.S. war operations in the region against Iran. The failed “mowing the grass” approach (aka Ruble bouncing as I have come to call it), previously seen in repeated strikes against Houthis' targets that cost hundreds of millions of dollars yet left the Houthis still operational, clearly illustrates the problem.

Rather than learning from these profound military lessons, Washington appears to have repeated the same strategy in confronting Iran on a larger, high-tempo scale. The Houthis themselves drew lessons from the IRGC’s doctrine of asymmetric warfare, and Tehran is now demonstrating a similar mastery in the Gulf; hidden long-range missiles to keep attacking Israel, to keep doing damage, whilst reducing US mid-course interceptor magazine depth with huge strategic consequences for imminent WW3 escalations in the Pacific. But best of all, it has emulated and expanded on the Houthis' success of denying the Red Sea to shipping, while using mines, drones, missiles and unmanned fast attack boats to challenge far more expensive U.S. naval assets and disrupt shipping across the gulf through the Strait of Hormuz. For the IRGC, this is like shooting fish in a barrel, and we should expect many more ships to be hit in the days ahead.

The result is a classic case of a technologically superior American force struggling against a well-prepared adversary using asymmetric tactics to impose disproportionate costs. This strategic paradigm is America's nemesis; as time erodes national willpower, leading to defeat on every occasion since and including Vietnam. In the case of Trump today, he is, by our assessment, less able to withstand the atrophy of time than any other US president caught in war. Indeed, on Monday this week (war day 8), he announced it was all over and on Wednesday, he was bawling out his four main advisors for feeding him misinformation that led us to war.........

Now, find out more about why Trump is Caught In An Iranian Bear Trap and the implications for you.

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