Dear Arkite,

Listen to the latest The State Of It podcast now!

In the second episode of Season 5 of the State of It podcast, David and Horatio talk about the state of the Iran-Israel conflict and how it may expand into a much larger conflict than what people currently believe.

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Listen Now

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As many of you know, one of the core tenets of our human systems theory is the concept of lateral and linear thinkers—two distinct cognitive archetypes that exist in dynamic tension throughout the rise and fall of empires.

We argue that seafarers are inherently more likely to be lateral thinkers, drawn to the uncertainty and entropy of the open seas. In fact, nations with high coastline-to-landmass ratios—such as Britain and Holland—tend to produce higher percentages of lateral thinkers than landlocked nations. Thus, it was no coincidence that these nations were the cradles of Protestantism, meritocracy, and democracy in Europe.

Therefore, sailing is not only the sport of kings but also a celebration of the democratic and innovative spirit. Sailboat racing attracts a high concentration of lateral thinkers, making it a natural fit for our values at Global Forecaster.

That is why we were proud to sponsor this year's BCYC Round Island Race. Above is the gorgeous Laurent Giles yacht  Lutine storming into the Needles.

The race began early on Day Two of British Classic Week, with Classes 1–3 setting off from the Royal Yacht Squadron line. They headed east along the same route as the America's Cup to circumnavigate the Isle of Wight, continuing a tradition that mirrors the pioneering spirit we champion. The weather was perfect to provide a fabulous race over the next 8 hours.

Watch this video Clip Instagram

Read more here-British Classic Week Day 2

Global Forecaster David Murrin commented, “As human beings, we are, sadly, very predictable. Fortunately, this predictability allows us to find deep-seated historical patterns and use them to understand and predict the future.  In today’s turbulent climate, this is even more valuable.”

David continued, “As sailors, we are lateral thinkers.  On the water, we look at problems from different angles, take risks, and have an adventurous nature.  These maritime characteristics helped form the foundations of democracy and will help us track and predict global events in the future.  The question is, can you afford not to know?”

By predicting geopolitical and market moves before they happen and analysing patterns in human behaviour, Global Forecaster supports individuals and businesses to apply lateral thinking to navigate the future, grasp opportunities and safeguard against turbulent events.

So go lateral and .....

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In the coming weeks, a pro-Russia American figure—perhaps Tucker Carlson or even Donald Trump—may begin touting the idea that the United States owes a debt of gratitude to Russia for its alleged support during the American War of Independence. This narrative is likely to be fueled by a recent interview over the July 4th weekend, in which Vladimir Putin claimed that Russia provided arms and money to aid the American cause.

True or False?

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Answer: False- 

Unlike France, Spain, and the Dutch Republic, Russia did not provide troops, arms, or funds to the American revolutionaries. The controversial Empress Catherine the Great was not sympathetic to the American War for Independence, nor to revolutions or republican ideals. She viewed them as threats to the monarchical order.

Near the end of the war, in 1780, Catherine led the formation of the League of Armed Neutrality—a coalition of European naval powers that opposed Britain's interference with neutral shipping during wartime. This move restricted British naval operations, as the Royal Navy could no longer freely stop and search neutral ships from Russia, Sweden, Denmark, and others. But that is a far cry from supporting the American cause with arms and money.

Once again, Putin is lying—his primary goal being to manipulate gullible Americans and pro-Kremlin mouthpieces.

Understanding objective reality and historical truth is essential to resist the many lies of our modern world.

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You’ve heard of cognitive dissonance — that uncomfortable tension we feel when our actions contradict our beliefs. But what happens when that dissonance expands across an entire society?

We call it Extinction Dissonance.

As explored in Breaking Through the Dissonance of Western Decline, both the U.S. and the U.K. are gripped by a widening disconnect:
Institutions are crumbling. Systems are visibly failing.
Yet daily life rolls on — calm on the surface, denial beneath.

This is no accident. It's a form of hypernormalisation — a term coined by Alexei Yurchak to describe the late Soviet Union and later popularised by filmmaker Adam Curtis. In such a state, dysfunction becomes the norm. Illusion replaces action. Denial becomes a coping strategy.

Extinction Dissonance is the terminal stage:
When a society is clearly in decline, facing existential threats, and yet collectively pretends everything is fine. The result? Inaction, paralysis, and ultimately, collapse.

So, how do you break the spell of denial — and choose a different future?

You start by recognising the dissonance. Then, by seeking truth — however uncomfortable — and using it to make conscious, courageous decisions.

Start by-

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Do You?

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Do You?

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Do you? 

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Russian and Chinese information manipulation efforts extend beyond soft power, posing direct threats to Western national security.

Although their methods differ, both aim to undermine Western democracies by eroding public trust and weakening alliance cohesion.

They employ various tools—including state-controlled media, AI-generated content, cyber-attacks, and social media campaigns—to spread anti-Western narratives, particularly during global crises.

Their global influence is expanding, often without formal coordination.

Western openness and media freedom are being exploited, as these actors thrive on sowing polarisation, undermining NATO and European Union (EU) unity, and deepening societal divisions.

Global Forecaster can help you see through the shadows-

• Your Trusted Lens in an Uncertain World
• A Beacon of Insight  in Turbulent Times
• Decoding the Fog

So in a World of full Shadows, Trust the Forecaster

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3 July 2025 – Taiwan on High Alert Amid Escalating Chinese Military Activity in Taiwan Strait and Beyond

Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense (MND) has reported a significant and sustained increase in Chinese military operations across multiple domains near the Taiwan Strait, triggering heightened alert levels across the island. The recent surge appears to reflect a deliberate and escalatory show of force by Beijing, with both tactical and strategic dimensions.

Key Developments:

• Large-Scale Aerial and Naval Activity:
  As of 6 a.m. local time on 3 July, Taiwan’s MND tracked 41 sorties by PLA (People’s Liberation Army) aircraft and 9 PLAN (People’s Liberation Army Navy) vessels operating in and around the Taiwan Strait. Critically, 30 aircraft crossed the median line—the unofficial boundary between mainland China and Taiwan—penetrating Taiwan’s northern, central, southwestern, and eastern Air Defence Identification Zones (ADIZ).
  This marked one of the largest single-day aerial incursions in recent months.
• Sustained Operations Across Timeframes:
  Earlier in the same 24-hour window, an additional 25 PLA aircraft sorties were recorded, with 16 also crossing the median line, suggesting a coordinated and persistent tempo of operations. These incursions appear to be part of joint air-sea combat readiness drills conducted by the PLA, pointing to growing integration between China’s air and naval forces in the region.
• Morning Surge Intensifies Pressure:
  A further 53 aircraft sorties and 8 naval vessels were detected during the morning hours, with 37 aircraft entering Taiwan’s ADIZ. The sustained volume and breadth of these operations suggest a high level of operational readiness and strategic signalling by the PLA.
• Strategic Escalation in the Western Pacific:
  In a particularly notable development, both of China’s aircraft carriers, Liaoning and Shandong, were observed operating in tandem in the Western Pacific, beyond the so-called Second Island Chain. This rare manoeuvre signals a broader projection of force and highlights China’s growing blue-water naval capabilities. The crossing of the Second Island Chain represents a marked strategic escalation, challenging regional deterrence frameworks and the U.S.-led Indo-Pacific posture.
• Taiwan’s Response and Preparedness:
  In response, Taiwan has increased the readiness of its armed forces. Taiwanese air defence systems actively tracked, monitored, and intercepted PLA aircraft. These actions come as Taiwan prepares for its annual Han Kuang military exercises, scheduled for 9–18 July. These exercises are expected to include simulations of full-spectrum Chinese aggression, including amphibious landings and cyber warfare.

Strategic Context:

The coordinated nature, scale, and timing of China’s actions suggest more than routine military drills—they likely serve multiple strategic objectives:

• Political Signalling: Assert pressure on Taiwan’s leadership and test the resolve of regional allies.
• Deterrence by Demonstration: Disrupt perceptions of Taiwan’s air and maritime control.
• Exercising for Invasion: The scale of PLAN exercises is that they are now the size of a real invasion force. As such GF argues that any such exercise must be viewed as the real deal.

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And get briefed

• Red Peril 44 – Lai’s “Unite Taiwan” Campaign and Beijing’s Escalating Response
  Red Peril 43; China is Configuring for T-Day Invasion
• Red Peril 41. American War Blindness; Part 3 What is China's Grand Plan?
• Red Peril 21; China Has Australia In Its Sights

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