Murrinations

David will be offering a series of summer geopolitical briefings aboard Cetewayo over the duration of a day, aimed at senior managers and officers in businesses and politics. The day is designed to highlight key political and economic risks that are critical for the survival of many businesses and that will need to be navigated in the years ahead.

Cetewayo

Years ago, it was China who refused to recognise climate change, because it believed that to do so would inhibit its industrial grow and completion with America. Then, at a critical point, China ratified the Kyoto Protocol as a Non-Annex Party to the Convention on Climate Change, in which status it was not required to limit greenhouse gas emissions under terms of the agreement. The reason was because China felt that in time it would win its challenge against America and asked the question as to what sort of world it would inherit.

Whilst continuing to believe that the Democratic Alliance (DA) will win the 2019 election, there is one area that is a weak spot for the party.

We, as individuals and nations learn the most from our mistakes. Especially, from the painful ones! So, the first step for the Conservatives is to take a deep breath and digest the lessons from the election, before choosing the path forward (see yesterday's Murrination). In that regard, the Conservatives are correct in keeping May as the PM and falling in behind her for a short time at least.

After such a calamitous election result, it is time to take stock and analyse the lessons; lessons that should provide a guide as to how Britain can navigate its path through what could be a challenging but ultimately, very positive journey. However, before we do that, it is time to review our Breaking the Code of History (BTCH) predictions for UK politics going into the polls and most importantly, which key lessons can be learned from our failed expectations:

We previously noted that as part of America’s force build up in preparation for a pre-emptive strike against North Korea, the Americans would concentrate at least three carrier groups in the area. With the USS Carl Vinson already in the region and the USS Ronald Reagan stationed in Yokosuka, Japan, the last carrier group the USS Nimitz is undergoing a 'final pre-deployment assessment' off Oregon.

The closure of the difference between the polls of the Conservatives and Labour has caused great consternation to those who thought it would be a landslide victory. However, the reason is very simple. May has tried to follow the path of Blair and Cameron in occupying the centre ground when the vast majority of the electorate requires a move to the right with the associated wealth creation policies.

Using the model from ‘Breaking the Code of History’, we have identified that Britain has started a new cycle. The UK ‘bottomed out’ in 1970, completed its regionalisation stage in 2016 with its Brexit referendum, and is now in a phase of expansion once more. As such, we should expect its foreign and trade policies to encourage Britain to seek new partners across the globe.

The Democratic Alliance, on the other hand, is a very different proposition for SA’s future. It is a party of wealth creation, which is what the nation most requires, with a proven track record of effective governance. Now, it has a black rather than white leader which gives them general appeal. There has been, and will continue to be, a massive shift in sentiment as the population no longer chooses a party for its past associations like the ANC, but for its ability to govern and give its children a bright economic future.

Historically, once a regional civil war has been won, it is rare that it is refought, although the feeling that it might happen again resounds through the society for generations. This, coupled with the simple fact that the EFF (Economic Freedom Fighters) is not a party of wealth distribution, will in all probability mean that they will not be the next party to lead SA after the ANC. Rather, I think of them as a catalyst that acts to weaken the ANC, hopefully as they claim within the rule of law.