Creating Actionable Strategies For The Future
History is full of truths to be discovered. However, over the past one hundred years the greatest divergence between a story told and its reality is that of the British Expeditionary Force (BEF) during World War I.
AboutHistorical patterns leading to WW1 and WW2 and our unique behavioural models all point to the fact WW3 has already started!
We must identify the theories that underlie historical cycles, learn the lessons and apply them to today’s changing world. Studying the ebb and flow of empires throughout history, in particular, can enable us to pinpoint the mechanisms that cause civilisations to rise and fall. These principles apply equally to regional powers...
Since the end of the Cold War the majority of the populations of the West have lived with the assumption that World War III (WWIII) would and could never take place. However, what if an aggressive and expansive hegemonic challenger believed that the combination of the West’s collapse in collective moral fibre and resolve, coupled with the use of powerful and decisive new weapons deployed en masse, could make WWIII winnable?
When I wrote ‘Breaking the Code of History’, one of my favourite sections was the chapter on warfare. Not just because the subject fascinated me as a military historian, but because it postulated that warfare was not just a random outbreak in man’s affairs, but a process that takes place within the context of the cycle of empires.
The decline of American power (2003) over the next decades.
The rise of Chinese power (2003) and its economic/military expansion to challenge America.
The acceleration of irreversible climate change (2005) and its huge global economic impact.
Brexit – Predicted the referendum result to leave the EU, with the key social drivers correctly identified (2015) and the course of Brexit with Boris becoming PM.
The rise of Trump to become the next US president (2015) numerous blogs on my site.
In Michael Hopf's post-apocalyptic novel Those Who Remain there is a quote that we should all take heed of: “Hard times create strong men, strong men create good times, good times create weak men, and weak men create hard times.”
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