WW3 Started With The Invasion Of Ukraine

This article was written by David one week after the invasion of Ukraine, on 3rd March 2022, illustrating his foresight in the geopolitical arena.

Index

Hegemonic Challenge Continues to Increase Global Entropy
The K Wave Cycle And The Drumbeat of War
Consciousness or Catastrophe
Global Forecaster's Early Warnings of WW3
The Current Global Arms Race
Meanwhile, Britain Is Asleep At The Switch
Putin’s War
Putin’s Nuclear Blackmail
China's Challenge
Consequences Of The New Russia-China Alliance
Hypersonic Missiles Are The Weapons of Hegemonic Challenge
The Consequences of Biden’s Rout From Afghanistan
Wartime Lateral Leadership
The Biggest Lie - We are Not At War With Russia Today

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Hegemonic Challenge Continues to Increase Global Entropy
The K Wave Cycle And The Drumbeat of War
Consciousness or Catastrophe
Global Forecaster's Early Warnings of WW3
The Current Global Arms Race
Meanwhile, Britain Is Asleep At The Switch
Putin’s War
Putin’s Nuclear Blackmail
China's Challenge
Consequences Of The New Russia-China Alliance
Hypersonic Missiles Are The Weapons of Hegemonic Challenge
The Consequences of Biden’s Rout From Afghanistan
Wartime Lateral Leadership
The Biggest Lie - We are Not At War With Russia Today

Hegemonic Challenge Continues to Increase Global Entropy

How can we explain why, despite our revulsion at the death, suffering and destruction of wars, they keep occurring? Often starting just when liberal leaders and empires believe they are a blight of the past?

To answer that challenging question, Global Forecaster's core thesis of Anti Entropy in Human Systems describes that life’s greatest enemies are the entropy of the universe and the degrading effects of time. Thus every living creature, small or large, individual or social, has to develop a survival strategy to overcome these challenges. Humanity uses social structures to combine our collective anti-entropy, pushing back the forces of the universe and maximising our chances of survival. Which is why humans self-organise into social systems to create order in the world around them, thus pushing back entropy and increasing our DNA’s longevity and survivability.

The largest social structures we have created to date are empires and super empires, whose progress we are able to track using our Five Stages of Empire model. Our collective unconscious human survival behaviour has been Darwinist, with the strongest empire sweeping aside the weakest at the first opportunity, in challenges that we call wars. This has had the effect of increasing collective human anti-entropy, because only the strongest empire can then lead the human race. As soon as it becomes senescent, ie old and unproductive, it will soon be replaced in a war. Thus wars do not just happen but follow a predictable path of Polarisation Along the Road to War. As the hegemony of the time goes into decline, its productively falls and it seeks to use financial leverage to compensate. (Eg America over the past two decades.) Most importantly, the rising hegemony exhibits greater creativity and productivity, which is focused into revolutions in military affairs, with the goal of overcoming the established hegemonic military dominance. (Eg hypersonic weapons.)

Nor is the timing of war random. It follows a drumbeat regulated by K-wave cycle peaks (and sometimes troughs), because as commodity prices rise, friction and competition between empires inevitably increase in a vicious cycle until war breaks out, as explained in our Theory of Warfare.

Today China’s hegemonic challenge to America is in its final phase, before the point of conflict. Very few people understand how that challenge is shaping our world:

No.1

Inflation will become much higher than central banks predict.

No.2

The Doomsday Bubble will keep imploding, as equities and bonds fall.

No.3

WW3 started with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and at some stage soon China will join in.

No.4

The risk of an AI singularity is 99% with the current arms race at full pace. AI is a key technology that will inevitably, within 12-24 months, create an AI singularity of a weapons system that could challenge mankind.

No.5

The climate catastrophe is ongoing and accelerating but can never be resolved during an ongoing hegemonic challenge, as both sides seek to maximise their economic power with the cheapest energy, whatever the consequences.

The K Wave Cycle And The Drumbeat of War

We have long warned of the danger ahead and campaigned to raise the UK's defence budget, based on the risk of conflict associated with the C-wave of the K-wave cycle, which is expected to peak in 2025/26 as shown below. A powerful and predictable cycle that has made the period of 2022 onwards one of great risk of conflict, potentially leading to WW3, unless the forces of Britain and the West were strong enough to deter Russia and Chinese aggression.

Whilst the cycle is best quantified via inflation, in the context of our theory of Anti Entropy in Human Systems, we are beginning to reframe what it represents within the process of human evolution. Indeed a better way to frame the K-wave cycle is not as the drumbeat of war, but as the heartbeat of the human evolutionary cycle. High periods on inflation corresponding to an entropic challenge provide the opportunity to make an evolutionary leap forward, catalysed by inter-human competition and the rise of lateral leadership and thinking. In periods of lower entropy, linear leadership and thinking are more prevalent, making evolutionary leaps unlikely.

US producer price index, all commodities

Consciousness or Catastrophe

Humans have been fighting wars since the dawn of time. However, today as we enter WW3, our weapons have the potential to wipe the human race from the face of the planet. Unless we make a collective quantum leap of consciousness, this decade, to start our journey to becoming a sentient human race. One that starts with the recognition of the role war has played in our evolution. Only with such an understanding can we possibly replace war with a less destructive process that will continue to catalyse our evolution.

Global Forecaster's Early Warnings of WW3

Our warnings started with the genesis of our Five Stages of Empire model in 2003, which is outlined in The Genesis And Predictive Power Of Breaking The Code Of History.

This was formally followed in 2009 with Breaking the Code of History, predicting WW3 precisely. Then in 2014 we published Lions Led By Lions, which not only reviewed our historical perception of how the BEF won WW1, but also examined the lessons of failed deterrence that allowed the war to start and applied them to the dynamic of America and China today. Lessons that America has not, as of yet, absorbed. Next we published in late 2015 A New Model For Britain's Defence Forces, warning of the impending war and the force structure needed to deter it. Again it fell on deaf ears, and UK defence cuts continued at an irresponsible pace.

Then in late 2020, as the world was absorbed with Covid, we published Now Or Never; The Global Forecaster UK Strategic Defence Review 2020. The publication got into number 10 and even catalysed Boris Johnson to make a November speech to the nation on the importance of defence. However, more defence cuts came in the strategic review of early 2021, accompanied by a denial of the magnitude of the clear and present danger that China represented.

Our next warning came in early 2021 with the publishing of Red Lightning. Since then our warnings have become louder, predicting the invasion of Ukraine six months before it happened and the hard reality that WW3 has commenced, and will only escalate in global extent and intensity. Meanwhile, the K-wave saw commodity price cycles go through the roof, to peak well above the 1975 highs.

The Current Global Arms Race

Today, as predicted, the new Asian arms race is in full swing, as catalysed by China. Consequently it is clear that the drums of war are increasing their beat in response to China and Russia's expansive actions. Indeed, total global military expenditure increased by 0.7% in real terms in 2021, to reach $2113 billion. The five largest spenders in 2021 were the United States, China, India, the United Kingdom and Russia, together accounting for 62% of global expenditure.

Based on historical examples, looking forward over the next few years as friction rises, we expect defence spending to move towards 10% of GDP in the protagonist nations. The autocracies of the world will challenge the democracies in the months and years ahead, driving tensions towards the 2025/26 K-wave peak.

Meanwhile, Britain Is Asleep At The Switch

Johnson And Sunak Failings

Both Johnson and Sunak have failed to protect the realm by wilfully ignoring the defence of the UK. Indeed, even France has now put Sunak's anti-defence-spending policies to shame. Whilst the UK has led the world in its support of Ukraine, it completely lags behind in terms of raising its defence budgets to match the rising threats.

Defence secretary Ben Wallace has been admirable in leading the charge to support Ukraine, for which he deserves great recognition. But he has failed to raise the alarm that UK forces are not large enough by a factor of 2 to 4. Nor are they equipped with the lethality required to fight a peer competitor like China, or Russia in its strongest warfighting capabilities, ie subsea. Mr Sunak, you are more and more isolated in your Failure to Defend the Realm so it is time to wake up and read Now Or Never!

Putin’s War

Western Failure Of Deterrence

The Ukraine invasion was a Western failure of deterrence, becoming inevitable based on the key drivers expressed in our empire and war theories, coupled with the application of the K-wave. Hence we predicted it would happen six months before it did. History will record that it was a direct consequence of many years of Europe neglecting its defences, coupled with Biden's precipitous rout from Afghanistan, which exposed total weakness in Western leadership. Weakness that then encouraged Putin's opportunistic aggression, in what he perceived to be the grey zone under the NATO walls.

The construct of deterrence is that the price for an aggressive act will be too high to contemplate. Intrinsic within that construct is the concept of intent and capability. NATO failed on both counts. Firstly, because of the American failures in Iraq, Libya and worst of all Afghanistan. Putin and Xi have both made the correct assessment that the intention of the Western leaders is weak. Secondly, NATO was unwilling to project power into Ukraine to defend it, because its military capability was built as a defensive and not an offensive alliance. This alliance had expounded linear thinking over the past two decades, resorting to toothless economic threats as leverage. Economic threats that failed to deter Putin, or even subsequently degrade his war effort, because the West failed to understand that Russia is in a C-wave of a K-wave commodity cycle, so holds all the cards. For the West it was like taking a knife to a gunfight, and we lost!

However, there is one lever of deterrence that should have been applied to Putin that might have stopped him in his tracks. That was the threat that NATO would raise its military spending target for members to 5% of GDP, an increase of 3 percentage points, to be applied in an emergency defence-spending programme. Intrinsic to that process would be that Britain, France and Germany all agreed, as the others would follow. Faced with the prospect of the full mobilisation of NATO in an arms race he could never win, Putin would have, in all probability, stepped back from the brink. This lesson of failed deterrence needs to be urgently integrated into the policy of deterring China from its inevitable act of aggression in the Asian basin.

Nato’s belated Response To Putin's Aggression

Quite simply, we should have expected the West to be shocked to its very core when faced with the total war in Ukraine – the violence, the loss of life – and recognise it as the manifestation of a brutal dictator's ambitions. Instead, its leaders have tried to play down the war, maintaining a state of normality through denial, when they should have been enacting emergency programmes to strengthen their defences. This has wasted precious time. Putin is at war with NATO, just as Germany was at war with America as it supplied Britain across the Atlantic before Pearl Harbor in 1942. Putin recognises that Russia is at war with the West. This is not just rhetoric but a reality. So, NATO needs to move to a war footing before it is surprised by other avenues of attack.

Putin’s Nuclear Blackmail

Putin’s Nuclear blackmail and associated strategy of escalating to de-escalate is based on two components: First, that Western leaders are weak and will shy away from responding to the release of a nuclear weapon in kind. Second, if said release is outside NATO territory in Ukraine, which is in effect a grey zone, the reticence to respond will be greatly increased. At the start of the Invasion we wrote the following:

Before the onset of the war, Putin conducted premeditated nuclear launch exercises on land and sea, to demonstrate his capability. He then warned NATO that any interference would result in consequences the like of which you have never seen, and then followed it up by raising the Russian strategic nuclear alert status. He warned that if NATO enacted a no-fly zone it would be an act of war, and implied that Russia would initiate a major nuclear exchange. In so doing, Putin was exercising his strategic doctrine of nuclear de-escalation, which played on Western weakness and nuclear appeasement, and which consequently has given his huge conventional army free rein in Ukraine.

This is not a one-off policy but one Putin will keep using in the future attacks on Finland and NATO nations. The implication is that NATO will have to face Putin’s nuclear policy down sooner or later and overcome its current policy of nuclear appeasement.

By implication, this means returning to a clear first use policy that was implied in the Cold War to defend Europe against the huge tank armies of the USSR. Furthermore, it should be made clear that Putin's location is known at all times to Western intelligence and any nuclear attack would be responded to by hitting his location with a super-accurate strike. In that process, NATO and the whole world will have to face down Putin’s nuclear threat.

However, it is our assessment that although such an action will take the world to the danger zone of the Cuban Missile Crisis, Putin is a bully who if faced with determined intention and force, with assurance that he and his family would die first in a retaliatory strike, whilst being provided with off ramps, would back off and return to Russian borders.

In effect, Putin’s strategy utilises the grey space, or gap, between the well-established and understood Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) escalation ladder that worked in the Cold War, and the use of a tactical nuclear weapon outside NATO territory. Only by closing the gap and linking MAD with the first use of tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine, can the threshold for Putin's first use of nuclear weapons be raised. Hence the logic of warning Putin that any tactical nuclear weapons release would result in an overwhelming NATO conventional response. Such a response would be easier for the timid leaders of the West to authorise, but would inevitably lead Putin to further escalation using nuclear weapons, which would firmly put events onto the MAD nuclear escalation ladder – effectively closing the grey-zone nuclear gap

The nuclear showdown was always going to come, once Putin started losing and did indeed come to a head on 25 Sept 2022 — The U.S. has warned Russia of “catastrophic consequences” if it launches a nuclear attack on Ukraine, few of the public appreciate how almost 60 years to the day how close the world came to a Cuba moment of Armageddon. One that saw Putin back down and the nuclear threshold raised to allow a future conventional victory by Ukraine. The question has to be why that did not happen before the invasion?

China's Challenge

China has followed our predictions made in 2002 (published in 2009 in Breaking the Code of History), that it would follow an exponential economic growth path that would see it militarise and challenge America as the global hegemon. It is now on the cusp of kinetic action, with the potential to bring about the onset of WW3. Despite the clear evidence of a plethora of hostile actions, the majority of Western politicians and people prefer to ignore the clear and present danger. However, understanding China's accession to empire is critical to a probabilistic assessment of risk and ascertaining its intentions.

Militarisation and Navalisation

Militarisation and Navalisation post the 1949 civil war, the PLAN was predominantly land based, as befitted a nation with a tradition of continental power, where the navy was a less significant arm of power projection. However, the 1996 Taiwan Straits crisis fundamentally changed that perception, and from that moment onwards China focused on maritime power to defeat America. Meanwhile, the power of the PLAN generals and admirals remains immense within the CCP systems, especially as Xi has successfully routed his power based on both systems. We can conclude that China is as militarised today as was the empire of Japan before it.

Polarisation; Growing Nationalism and Intolerance

During this time, primary polarisation drove China's sense of cultural superiority, which justified their expansion and aggression, and dehumanised their enemies. This is one of the key steps which human systems take before going to war. The subjugation of the Uyghurs and Tibetans is a clear example.

Hegemonic Defeat or Victory

In March 2020, Xi activated an equivalent to the Nazi four-year plan. This placed China on a secret war footing, in which it shifted from a manufacturing export economy to an externally fuelled consumer society in an arms race. Similar to Germany, the Chinese economy has imploded and Xi will soon have to go to war or suffer an economic collapse that will kill his hegemonic aspirations. In the short term (2 years), his challenge is based on one key cornerstone that if it fails will doom his ambition: that PLAN DF-21 and DF-26 missiles, with their hypersonic warheads, can destroy US carrier power, much as Japan's attack on Pearl Harbour sought to sink the two carriers based there.

The multitude of reasons why Xi has to make his move now are explained in The 4th Taiwan Straits Crisis and War. Meanwhile, to better understand the nature of WW3 that Xi is preparing to unleash, see our Murrination series Lessons from the Falklands War Applied to Taiwan.

Chinese ambitions for phase one of their military expansion emulate those of the Empire of Japan, to gain control out to the second island chain and then the third island chain, gaining effective control of the Western Pacific. The behaviour of both Japan into 1941 and China today in accurately following the Five Stages of Empire not only provides evidence that this unconscious collection of organisation cycles is valid, but also warns us of the almost inevitable risk of WW3 ahead, with a timing predicted in The K Wave Crises; The Drumbeat of War Approaches.

However, there is one other rather spooky indication. Japan took 73 years from the end of its war of regionalisation in 1868 to the onset of the war with America in 1941. China completed its civil war in 1949, and 74 years later here we are in 2023, on the cusp of WW3...

Consequences Of The New Russia-China Alliance

The consequences are many and are all detrimental to the continuance of the West and its free democratic nations, which include increased coordination on all fronts:

1. The strengthening of strategic support for each other’s current objectives in Ukraine and Taiwan.

2. The strengthening of the narrative around anti-Western ideology and rhetoric.

3. Mutual economic enhancement via a match made in heaven, as Russia provides China with energy resources that travel over land and thus away from maritime interdiction. Thus, creating the biggest continental power block in history.

4. Russia’s increasing energy leverage over Europe, as once they sell enough energy to China to keep their economy alive, they can use European sales as leverage, not being affected when they withhold sales.

5. Military coordination of forces and technology sharing is America's worst nightmare, making Europe and the North Atlantic as well as the Pacific key contested theatres of operation. The concern that the Russians share their submarine technology with the PLAN would mean that, with the rate of Chinese ship production, Western domination of the subsea environment could soon be lost.

Hypersonic Missiles Are The Weapons of Hegemonic Challenge

"Heads up, people" is a phrase that came from fighting in the WW1 trenches, when men were called to repel an attack and stand to, heads up out of the parapet, weapons aimed at the enemy. Its warning can be applied today to the threat from Chinese and Russian hypersonic weapons to America and its allies, which is the single most dangerous outcome of the current ongoing arms race.

“If war breaks out tomorrow, we’re probably not going to kill hypersonic boost-glide missiles,” said the Pentagon’s research and development chief, Mike Griffin, early in 2022.

“We don’t have any defence that could deny the employment of such a weapon against us,” Gen. John Hyten, then commander of the Pentagon’s Strategic Command, told the Senate Armed Services Committee in March 2018. Hyten has since been sworn in as the Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, putting him in a position to begin to push for just such programs.

However, in seeking to redress this new imbalance of arms, it is not enough for the West to have similar hypersonic weapons systems. To regain its hegemonic power, it must find an effective way to intercept and thus defeat these new super-fast missiles. Only with such a solution will the ever-more-emboldened genie of war be put back into its bottle.

So how can the US and its allies defend against hypersonic missiles to regain effective conventional deterrence? To answer that question, you as the reader must better understand the unique capabilities of hypersonic weapons. Hypersonics have ensured the acceleration of the weaponisation of space, and the nation that controls the high ground will control the world.

Today American and Western forces face the prospect of a surprise attack from the PLAN that in all probability will come without warning. Requiring new and sustained SOPs and alert status practices to deter such attacks. Read Red Lightning to find out more about how the PLAN might execute Pearl Harbor V2.0.

The Consequences of Biden’s Rout From Afghanistan

Over the past 20 years, we have been predicting and simultaneously tracking the decline of the American Empire. This is a dynamic that we have accurately predicted in our Five Stages of Empire model. We have postulated that this is the stage where mounds of debt produced via money printing are used to sustain an uncompetitive economy, as the system enters a state of collective delusion that it is on a sustainable pathway. Meanwhile challenging hegemonies gather at the gates, waiting for their moment to strike. This delusionary state is almost always burst by a massive geopolitical setback, where it is obvious to the world that the hegemony has become impotent. The most recent example was the Suez Crisis, which ended any residual post-war perception that Britain was still a global power. An acute sterling crisis ensued, completing the collapse.

The disastrous retreat from Afghanistan, created by the total incompetence of Biden, is of the same magnitude. The move has totally destroyed American credibility and exposed the decrepit weakness of the Biden administration. His actions in retreating shambolically from Afghanistan, against the wishes of long-term allies, has lost the trust of America's allies whilst emboldening its enemies. These enemies will now inevitably use the days and months ahead to test a doddering and hubristic Biden administration, to leverage this moment of political weakness and incompetence, potentially creating massive geopolitical and market uncertainty. Meanwhile, the risk of conflict over Taiwan and Iran's nuclear breakout have increased significantly. The retreat from Afghanistan was the failure that opened the way for the invasion of Ukraine.

There are two kinds of government: peacetime leadership, which can be lateral or linear and alternates on the cycle of empires and nations; and wartime leadership, which to be effective and victorious must be lateral. The key to national survival is the speed of transition from linear to lateral during a crisis, before it is too late to make such a critical adaptation.

Peacetime Linear Leadership

A peacetime government is essentially a consensual, linear style of leadership. One that is in abundant evidence in Biden, and indeed in Macron, Scholz and now Sunak. And one that is failing Western democracy by continuing to deny that WW3 has started, and thus refusing to put into action a wartime economy – as we called for on 22 March 2022 following the invasion of Ukraine, in Global Britain: Time to Shift to a Wartime Economy. In effect, we should be hoping for the best but preparing for the worst. Such linear collective denial derives from several deeply flawed thought processes:

1. Rigid linear projections that fail to recognise that entropic change has arrived, but rather assume that normality will soon return – i.e. rose-tinted glasses syndrome.

2. Lack of realistic appraisal of human predatory behaviour, seen repeatedly in history, unfolding on their watch.

3. An unconscious recognition that wartime leadership is not within their capability, thus accepting that war has arrived implies the end of their political fortunes.

History has very clear lessons for such linear leaders who preside over the slide into war: they either lead their nations to destruction, or, if their nation survives the initial onslaught, they are swiftly and humiliatingly replaced by a more effective wartime lateral leadership, ie Chamberlain. Today in Britain, as WW3 intensifies, it is deeply anomalous that the Brexit-based lateral leadership of Johnson, and even Truss, has been replaced by the unsuitable leadership of the linear Sunak government. A political evolution that only took place in a linear (Remainer/sensible) coup, against the wishes of the Conservative membership, whose instincts to demand lateral leadership were 100% correct. Sunak’s rise completes a full hand of weak linear Western leaders and only accelerates Putin and Xi’s ongoing, aggressive, kinetic actions.

Wartime Lateral Leadership

In sharp contrast, an effective wartime government is one of lateral leadership. This was epitomised by Churchill, rather than the WW1 leader Lloyd George (to whom I have dedicated an entire chapter on how NOT to lead, in my book Lions Led By Lions). Qualities that have been abundantly evident in Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President of Ukraine, who has led his nation in the great tradition of Winston Churchill. In so doing he has both protected his country and covered up for the weakness of the collective Western leadership by acting as a lightning rod for Putin's aggression. Zelenskyy is effectively leading the now-overt global war between democracy and autocracy.

Sustained crises, such as the current war, require personal qualities in the form of service-based leadership, vision, emotional fortitude and empathy. One never knows who will shine and who will falter until they are tested, but Zelenskyy is certainly a most capable Hero of Crisis, and we can only hope that Western nations find similar heroic leaders who will rise to the fore.

One essential change Churchill successfully enacted, to enhance the effectiveness of his leadership, was to create a small war cabinet. This dispensed with the larger cabinet and added a more decisive edge to the decision-making process. A practice that Sunak should emulate today. Another key lesson is that senior members with linear iterative thought processes have no place at a senior strategic decision-making level in a fast-moving crisis. But should be greatly valued in the implementation stages once a strategy has been determined. This is because linear thinkers are not conditioned to effectively anticipate events, and are shackled by only being able to react to them – and then, not fast enough. A study of the Ukrainian leadership would undoubtedly find that eight months into a brutal war for survival, its leadership and armed services are now almost fully lateralised. For more information on this process see our Adaptation through lateralisation campaign.

The second key lesson that Churchill learned very early in WW2 was never to lie to his people, and Zelensky has similarly been truthful, has communicated daily and shared bad news first hand, not allowing it to be disseminated by whispers. Trusting the judgement of the people and thus empowering them. Western leaders seem to forget that their electorates are much smarter than most politicians ever wish to believe, and that honesty, however hard, will win their trust and mobilise their nations to act as one.

The Biggest Lie - We are Not At War With Russia Today

Western leaders (and Putin) are perpetrating an even bigger lie to their electorates than the one they created to enact lockdowns, when the evidence of their efficacy was the very opposite. Now, they are lying that NATO is not at war with Putin. Worst of all, they seem to be telling it to themselves too, because whilst there are good strategic reasons not to publicise the ongoing war and fuel its escalation, in private they should have enacted plans to shift their economies onto a wartime footing, recognising that without doing so, deterrence is truly dead and full-blown global WW3 is inevitable. They have not.

Written by Global Forecaster David Murrin

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Breaking The Code of History

The dwindling of the Earth’s energy, water and food resources, within the context of global warming and geopolitical instability, poses a threat to humanity on a scale that might have been unimaginable. Yet we have been there before. Again and again and again.

In this prescient book of astonishing breadth – the culmination of decades of personal research across a wide range of disciplines – Murrin offers a conclusion as brilliant in its simplicity as it is complex in its workings. Human behaviour, he argues, is not random, but determined by specific, quantifiable and predictable patterns fuelled by our need to survive and prosper. As individuals and collectively, we have been governed for thousands of years by unconscious responses that repeatedly mire us in catastrophe.

According to Murrin, to resolve the issues confronting us today we cannot merely study the past. We also need to understand the precise algorithm of behaviour that has caused us to re-enact the same destructive cycles in ever-greater magnitudes.

Murrin takes the reader on a journey from the first civilising impulses of early humans to the modern era, offering evidence of how civilisations develop, wax and wane in a five-stage replicating process. These ‘Five Stages of Empire’ are repeated the world over as regional powers accumulate resources, expand, mature, overextend and finally decline, no longer able to master the supply of finite resources that feed imperial ambition.

The Predictions Of Breaking The Code Of History Have Been Frighteningly Prescient

Breaking the Code of History was written with the specific aim of analysing man's past, the structure of our world today and how our future could play out. It was designed to offer a new understanding, especially, of the risks that we face. Its key conclusions were as below, and have been proven 100% accurate. Implying that we are also correct about what comes next:

1. The Western world (or SWCE – Super Western Christian Empire) is in the final decade of its decline, as defined by the last of a series of empires that ends with the United States of America.

2. The Asian Super Empire (ASE) has been rising for over a hundred years and is currently led by China. It will be in the most aggressive phase of its expansion over the next decade.

3. The next decade will see a huge commodity squeeze that will accelerate frighteningly in the last half of this decade. Its peak should be around 2025, but this may come sooner as a result of the scarcity of global resources.

4. The accelerating effects of climate change will only exacerbate the competition for basic resources of water and food.

5. Wars are only fought for resources, with religious and nationalist memes being used to bond and polarise each combatant into a unique combination of beliefs.

6. The next decade will see China become a military powerhouse as it converts its economy’s strength into military power. China’s ever-growing need for resources will drive it into wars with the rest of the world, if it believes it can win such a conflict owing to a massive military capability advantage over its enemies.

7. Extrapolating all the factors above, back in 2002-09 we predicted a global war (WW3) between 2022–25, instigated by China that could destroy the democratic West and risks the future of humanity.

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What Can You Do To Make A Difference

When faced with the increasing risk of these disastrous global events that were described back in 2010 in Breaking The Code Of History, which include the West’s potentially catastrophic decline, it is very easy to feel impotent. I am often asked the question as to what one person can do in the face of such huge geopolitical events. So, where does one start? We must believe that, with knowledge and a greater awareness of mankind and our geopolitics, we will be able to act before it is too late, not just for the West but for the whole world.

1. Have Courage, take heart from the Steadfastness of the Ukrainian people.

2. The greater the number of people who are aware of the problems our world faces, the more likely we are to be able to solve them.

3. Start by seeing the danger ahead, if not for ourselves but for our children. Stop sleepwalking with the others and take responsibility for our future.

4. Become informed, and express this information to MPs, your friends and colleagues, drawing upon the cycles described in Breaking The Code Of History to inform your perspective on what is really going on.

5. Demand much more from our leadership, and be clear on what defines good leadership so that you can recognise it when you see it and support it at every level of our society. To change the course of the future for the better, we will need to collectively manifest something very special in the form of iconic leadership. See Iconic Leadership »

6. Support our campaign for Adaptation Through Lateralisation

So, Get Up To Speed

By reading our Murrination Insights, you will realise that we are not lurching from one short-term crisis to another, as the mainstream media would have us believe. You will understand the patterns and rhythms behind these 'crises', which are actually predictable and in some cases avoidable, helping you to prepare both on a personal level and as a valuable and informed member of society.

1. Read Breaking The Code Of History

2. Stay up to date and follow our Murrinations Insights

3. Learn about Adaptation Through Lateralisation

Solutions: So What Can The West Do?

The answer is both simple and yet seemingly impossible to enact. The West needs to rebuild its economies to create real growth and wealth, and then ensure that it has strong armed forces to deter any potential Chinese aggression. The key steps to achieving this are:

1. Collectively recognise the qualities of good leadership and then elect iconic leaders. This may mean a reformation of government processes or the evolution of new political parties.

2. Replace the values of decline with the values of growth and expansion within our Western society, as defined in Breaking The Code Of History.

3. Urgently enact a policy of widespread debt forgiveness/restructuring in the US and Europe.

4. Lower taxes to the minimum possible without incurring the burden of having to pay the interest on the debt.

5. Create a new enterprise/adaptive culture with tax incentives and effective cultural support for those that take innovative risk, and create real wealth and jobs based on hard work and enterprise.

6. Then massively re-invest in defence and ensure that the Chinese do not gain any significant leads through revolutions in military affairs.

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I decode major historical events to forecast global change in today's world. Helping you make more informed decisions that avoid repeating past destructive cycles. Together we can create positive actionable strategies for the future.

To date we have posted 37 updates on the Russian invasion of Ukraine alone. We bring you insights and information on a frequent basis, ahead of most media outlets.

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Global Strategist

Our deliverables are proven and winning strategies for governments, the armed forces, corporations and financial institutions, which empower leadership with proven and winning strategies. Our USPs are:

integrate our understanding of past cycles to predict future geopolitical and market events that affect the environment that the organisation sits in;
locate the position of our clients’ organisation on their own five-phase lifecycle;
identify all current and future threats;
apply proven strategies based on the applicable lessons of the five-phase lifecycle.

Governmental Advisor

Company Advisor

Financial Institution Advisor

Defence Advisor

Red Lightning

How The West Lost World War III To China In 2025

Since the end of the Cold War the majority of the populations of the West have lived with the assumption that World War III (WW3) would and could never take place. However, what if an aggressive and expansive hegemonic challenger believed that the combination of the West’s collapse in collective moral fibre and resolve, coupled with the use of powerful and decisive new weapons deployed en masse, could make WW3 winnable? This is the story of how the past ten years and next five years comprise the road to war in 2025 and the moment that China mounts surprise attacks on the free world. Red Lightning then precisely details how the PLAN wins WW3 in only a few days and ends the rule of democracy globally.

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