Murrinations

If we compare today's Brexit with our two past examples of the English civil war and Henry VIIIs reformation we find an anomaly in the new British cycle. At the bottom of the British national cycle post-1970 there was a continuity of governance unseen in past cycles due to the framework of the super western Christian empire. Whilst continuity accelerated Britain's recovery time considerably, its' downside was that the legacy leadership structures of the nation remained in place, rather than evolving through a period of chaos which would have allowed new leadership to rise to the fore.

The British parliament is now approaching a historic moment. It is about to vote on May’s Chequers plan for Brexit.

It therefore seems an appropriate time to review the ‘Five Stages of Empire Principals’ to better understand the social forces at work in British society and the likely outcomes ahead.

David’s new book will be available for Xmas 2018.

We have created a limited edition of 500 books to commemorate WW1. The cost is £19.95 and it is only available at https://www.davidmurrin.co.uk/book/lions-led-by-lions/purchase

Please encourage your friends to buy one too and change your perspective on the BEF and WW1 Happy Xmass

Winston Churchill once said about history, ‘The longer you can look back, the farther you can look forward’. As we approach the centenary of the end of World War I (WWI), perhaps it is time to ask questions about whether we really understand why such a destructive war, which blighted a generation, took place, and more importantly, how it was won. And out of respect for those that gave their lives and for the benefit of future generations, we must ask the key question: Have we learned the necessary lessons to avoid it ever happening again?

When confronted with extreme situations the majority of us short circuit and attempt to continue our normal routines. Even in the face of obvious and impending danger. This is classic human behaviour.

Trump’s strategy to reverse America's global decline has impacted three critical areas of American foreign policy: Russian relations, the Middle East and China. I have not included North Korea because it is, in reality, part of the Chinese challenge to oblate American power. It is worth remembering that North Korea ascended to become a nuclear power by using the distraction of the second Iraq war, on the basis that America would not fight on two fronts. It worked and is a lesson that Kim seems not to have forgotten.

One of the core thesis of BTCH is that there are five stages of an Empire: the first of which is characterised by “copy and assimilate” as a rising system seeks to gain best practice knowledge to accelerate its growth. For many years China was known as just that, a nation that copied others. Indeed it has taken this “copy and assimilate” stage to new levels with its systemised, government sponsored intelligence operations designed to extract every piece of IP for advanced technology from every nation in the world, specifically America.

We have mentioned that we expect a trade war to unfold between Trump’s America and China this year so how does that translate into the global markets?

Well, last year in early 2017 we created what we called the Arkent Scenario as the sequence in which we expected the markets to roll over into global economic trauma. The Arkent scenario was a road map to follow markets and prepare for the worst. It articulated the following signs in this specific order: