Murrinations

Winston Churchill once said about history, ‘The longer you can look back, the farther you can look forward’. As we approach the centenary of the end of World War I (WWI), perhaps it is time to ask questions about whether we really understand why such a destructive war, which blighted a generation, took place, and more importantly, how it was won. And out of respect for those that gave their lives and for the benefit of future generations, we must ask the key question: Have we learned the necessary lessons to avoid it ever happening again?

When confronted with extreme situations the majority of us short circuit and attempt to continue our normal routines. Even in the face of obvious and impending danger. This is classic human behaviour.

Trump’s strategy to reverse America's global decline has impacted three critical areas of American foreign policy: Russian relations, the Middle East and China. I have not included North Korea because it is, in reality, part of the Chinese challenge to oblate American power. It is worth remembering that North Korea ascended to become a nuclear power by using the distraction of the second Iraq war, on the basis that America would not fight on two fronts. It worked and is a lesson that Kim seems not to have forgotten.

One of the core thesis of BTCH is that there are five stages of an Empire: the first of which is characterised by “copy and assimilate” as a rising system seeks to gain best practice knowledge to accelerate its growth. For many years China was known as just that, a nation that copied others. Indeed it has taken this “copy and assimilate” stage to new levels with its systemised, government sponsored intelligence operations designed to extract every piece of IP for advanced technology from every nation in the world, specifically America.

We have mentioned that we expect a trade war to unfold between Trump’s America and China this year so how does that translate into the global markets?

Well, last year in early 2017 we created what we called the Arkent Scenario as the sequence in which we expected the markets to roll over into global economic trauma. The Arkent scenario was a road map to follow markets and prepare for the worst. It articulated the following signs in this specific order:

During the positive phases of an empire leaders serve the people they lead, which is in sharp contrast to the negative self-centred leadership values demonstrated in the declining phase of empire.

The recent film “The Darkest Hour” is firstly an absolutely brilliant and engaging drama. Secondly, like all successful films, its’ underlying theme resonates with the state of the underlying society from which it originates.

“Breaking the code of History” defines five distinct stages within every empire or human system cycle. The first three stages represent positive expansion and the last two negative contraction.

America has been building the political pressure towards both North Korea and China to bring about a peaceful resolution to North Korea’s nuclear ambitions. That pressure reached white hot levels when America orchestrated the capture of the Hong-Kong-flagged oil tanker which was accused of transferring 600 tons of refined oil to a North Korean ship in October in violation of United Nations sanctions.