In a year that has started with extensive Australian bush fires, which clearly demonstrates yet another aspect of the increasingly damaging effects of climate change. It seems serendipitous that the oil and gas companies who have benefited from carbon emissions will endure their own reckoning as part of a general commodity price collapse by 50% during 2020. A drop that will complete the decade long counter-trend correction of the K cycle.
Since writing Breaking The Code of History, I have continued to seek enhanced concepts that explain human interactions and to better predict and understand our collective behaviours. This has lead me to develop my Theory of Anti Entropy in Human Systems.
Firstly, we have to understand exactly what is entropy:
My work is based around collective human behaviour, how to predict it, understand it and enhance the ways we interact with each other.
My fascination for military history, which started when I was young has continued to this day: why we fight wars, who wins, how they win. This is really, sadly, the history of mankind. It is an essential piece of understanding as to how we sit here in today’s world.
We would all like to benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week's meals. Unfortunately, people in general tend to be terrible forecasters! As they are part of a collective thought the process. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, 'even experts predictions are only slightly better than chance'. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight.
We have mentioned that we expect a trade war to unfold between Trump’s America and China this year so how does that translate into the global markets?
Early in 2017 we created what we called the Arkent Scenario as the sequence in which we expected the markets to roll over into global economic trauma. The Arkent scenario was a road map to follow markets and prepare for the worst. It articulated the following signs in this specific order:
The week before last, out of the blue I was bombarded with simultaneous questions about bitcoin by friends and 'Breaking the Code of History' readers, some on behalf of their children. They all announced that they were proudly mining coins and what did I think?
Naturally, I looked at the price history shown below; the price was 7500 at the time. I responded that it was a bubble and most likely the bitcoin price had made a blow off high following which the price would decline significantly back to the 3500 level.
Most of us are aware of the Industrial Revolution in Britain in the 19th century, but how many people have truly appreciated the social impact of the arrival of these new technologies? This tumultuous period is known as the First Phase of the Industrial Revolution which heralded the advent of new manufacturing processes from 1760 to sometime between 1820 and 1840.
1. A return to the Cold War paradigm The Battle of Trafalgar in 1805 commenced 10 decades of the British Empire’s control of the globe. During that period, the strength of its navy and the absence of major competitors allowed its army to be configured for small colonial wars. However, this changed rather belatedly with the rise of Germany and its challenge in 1914, forcing Britain to build a large continental army for the first time.
1. 2015-2025 The relentless growth of the human population to an estimated 11bn in 2100 will put immense pressure on food supplies.
2. 2015-2025 Population expansion combined with climate change and demand for more protein will pose grave challenges for the food production process.
3. 2015-2025 Africa will become the major breadbasket of the world.
4. 2015-2025 Food and water security will become key strategic considerations for all nations, and a vital national economic resource.
1. 2015 The world will fail to take the rapid action required to prevent the acceleration of climate change and its pervasive negative impacts. Thus, temperatures will rise above the 2C mark (that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change “IPCC” had set as a target) above pre-industrial levels within two decades.