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HISTORY DECODED TO INFORM THE FUTURE
By analysing past patterns we can predict forthcoming events and trends
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Who Is This For? Thought Leaders
Asset Managers
Hedge and PE funds, Family offices
David’s history in managing macro capital and predicting market dislocations makes him an invaluable advisor to senior risk takers. His expertise and Financial Market Analysis are particularly relevant to the successful management and preservation of capital as the global financial system faces challenges of the order of 2008 in the years ahead.
Natural Resources
Oil, Mining and Agricultural Organisations
David’s background in the oil business and agriculture has given him personal experience in this sector, which when combined with his market predictions, gives him a unique perspective to advise natural resource companies on geopolitical risk and market timing in his commodity Market Analysis as to the impending low of the commodity price cycle, and subsequent hyper inflation cycle.
Businesses
Entrepreneur & Corporations
David can act as a special advisor to boards or senior management. Helping you maximize your business strategy in an uncertain geopolitical world, and to also apply the five-phase life cycle to optimize business development. Additionally David's Iconic Leadership program allows organisations to maximise their potential.
Governments
Politicians & Armed Forces
The theories within BREAKING THE CODE OF HISTORY have significant implications for governments to anticipate well in advance the needs of the electorate and the threats posed by other nations in an uncertain world. Follow David’s global forecasts and predictions for the world around us.
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Past history
About David
David Murrin began his unique career in the oil exploration business, amongst the jungles of Papua New Guinea and the southwestern Pacific islands, engaging with the numerous tribes of the Sepik River and exploring the mineral composition of the region. Before the age of adventure tourism, this region was highly dangerous, very uncertain and local indigenous groups were often hostile and cannibalistic.
Not only did he keep his head, but it was his work with the PNG tribespeople that catalyzed his theories on collective human behaviour.
Future
Accuracy Of Past & Present Predictions
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Decline of American Power
The decline of American power (2003) over the next decades.
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China's Expansion To Challenge US
The rise of Chinese power (2003) and it's an economic/military expansion to challenge America.
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Climate Change Acceleration
The acceleration of irreversible climate change (2005) and its huge global economic impact.
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March Towards UK Leaving The EU
Brexit – Predicted the referendum result to leave the EU, with the key social drivers correctly identified (2015) and the course of Brexit with Boris becoming PM.
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Trump's Rise To Presidency
The rise of Trump to become the next US president (2015) numerous blogs on my site.
Subscriber content
Finance Market Analysis
What Information?
David developed a unique and effective set of behavioural models to predict financial markets whilst at JPM which were extremely effective and profitable. These pattern recognition models acted as the foundation for his 20-year career as a CIO of his hedge fund Emergent. With some remarkable returns in the most bearish of markets(e.g. 84% in 2008).
Why Subscribe?
This service is designed to provide long term and medium term investment outlooks and in a range of markets from Equity indices, Bonds Fx, and Commodities. Be the first to gain David's market insights. Which include his Arkent scenario predictions of a pending major paradigm shift that will result in a greater stock market decline than 2008 with the most serious Financial, political and geopolitical consequences.
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Commentator
Media Coverage
Clients / Coverage
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Murrinations
Murrinations
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Examining the responses of nations and their success in combating the Wuhan Virus one trend is very clear; greater testing leads to improved containment… Read more.
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Applying the analogy of Noah’s Ark by likening it to the economic shutdown of the Western economies, I note that it has been 41 days since my Murrination of February 22nd - LESSONS… Read more.
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1.0 Accessing Historical Collective Experience and National Energy
My study of Empire Cycles suggests that Britain has a unique history from which it can draw… Read more.
Murrinations
During the Battle of Britain in 1940, the RAF faced the overwhelming odds of Goering's Luftwaffe. However, Air Chief Marshal of Fighter Command Hugh Dowding was a unique innovator… Read more.
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Writer
Publications
Breaking The Code Of History
We must identify the theories that underlie historical cycles, learn the lessons and apply them to today’s changing world. Studying the ebb and flow of empires throughout history, in particular, can enable us to pinpoint the mechanisms that cause civilisations to rise and fall. Read about the book, an introduction to BTCH, feedback or purchase the book direct.
Lions Led By Lions
History is full of truths to be discovered. However, over the past one hundred years the greatest divergence between a story told and its reality is that of the British Expeditionary Force (BEF) during World War I. Read about the book, extracts from Lions Led By Lions, feedback or purchase the book direct.
The Road To World Wars - Available Soon!
When I wrote ‘Breaking the Code of History’, one of my favourite sections was the chapter on warfare. Not just because the subject fascinated me as a military historian, but because it postulated that warfare was not just a random outbreak in man’s affairs, but a process that takes place within the context of the cycle of empires.
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Theory
The Theory Behind My Predictions
Understand history's "big picture" and accurately assess current and future geopolitical environments
Future
Thought Leadership Campaigns
© David Murrin 2020. All images courtesy of Getty Images.