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FINANCIAL MARKET ANALYSIS & Forecasts
Who is this for?
This service is for asset managers (Hedge Funds, Banks, institutional investors, and Family offices) with Medium and Long Term Time frames.
What is the basis of David's analysis?
David developed a unique and effective set of behavioural models to predict financial markets, whilst at JPM, which were extremely effective and profitable. They acted as the foundation for his 20-year career as a CIO of his hedge fund Emergent. With some remarkable returns in the most bearish of markets (e.g 84% in 2008 - see track record).
What analysis can I get?
David provides two distinct types of market analysis:
- Arkent Updates named after the Ark and severity of the next expected global economic downturn. These are the integration of all elements of our market views into one coherent strategy and perspective. Integrating price models and our Geopolitical perspectives (Murrinations) into a single holistic predictive perspective. They are updated as and when major market events provide new information, which is on average once or twice a month.
- Individual Market Analysis & Forecasts This service is designed to provide long term and medium-term investment outlooks and specific recommendations in a range of markets outlined below. Updates are sent out real time as and when the market moves require.
Do you offer different subscription options?
Yes. David offers two levels of subscription titled Arkent Strategist and FMI (Financial Market Investor), on a 3 or 12 month basis.
- Arkent Strategist - gives you access to David's Murrinations blog and Arkent Updates.
- FMI (Financial Market Investor)- gives you access to David's Murrinations blog, Arkent Updates and Individual Market Analysis.
How do I gain access to the analysis?
Once subscribed, as an Arkent Strategist or FMI (Financial Market Investor), you can login to the site and view the analysis in a secure area of the site. Click on the Pricing tab to view the costs and subscribe now.
David's unique Financial Market Analysis gives you his insights, via his behavioural models, that help him predict financial and geopolitical events.
David's focus with this service is on Macro trends. De-risking against shocks and finding new trading opportunities and strategies to maximize investment returns
This Market Analysis Service is designed by a highly experienced market Risk-taker of over three decades. David’s history in managing macro capital and predicting market dislocations makes him an invaluable advisor to senior risk takers. His expertise and Financial Market Analysis are particularly relevant to the successful management and preservation of capital as the global financial system faces challenges of the order of 2008 in the years ahead. David credentials as a global forecaster are outlined here.
David developed a unique and effective set of behavioural models to predict financial markets, whilst at JPM, which were extremely effective and profitable. They acted as the foundation for his 20-year career as a CIO of his hedge fund Emergent. With some remarkable returns in the most bearish of markets (e.g 84% in 2008 - see track record).
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Pattern Analysis In Markets
Global Forecaster uses pattern analysis templates based on Elliott wave counts to locate trading opportunities. These templates have been developed and applied to markets over the past three decades. Wave counts are in effect a language to describe market behaviour by producing a probability field of outcomes over a range of fractal degrees. In simple terms, this means identifying patterns over multiples time frames, to locate reversal points that then unfold into longer-term trends, providing multiple risk-return profiles.
David provides two distinct types of market analysis:
Arkent Updates - named after the Ark and severity of the next expected global economic downturn. These are the integration of all elements of our market views into one coherent strategy and perspective. Integrating price models and our Geopolitical perspectives (Murrinations) into a single holistic predictive perspective. They are updated as and when major market events provide new information, which is on average once or twice a month.
Individual Market Analysis & Forecasts - this service is designed to provide long term and medium-term investment outlooks and specific recommendations in a range of markets outlined below. Updates are sent out real time as and when the market moves require.
I have known David for over five years and, during that time (all documented) he has predicted the rise of Trump, every twist and turn during the three-year course of Brexit, including Boris becoming PM (a year before he did), and the landslide election result.
Rob Hersov - Chairman of Invest Africa
On January 30th he called me and really panicked me (I have all the WhatsApp’s to prove it), which made me dump most of our family equity portfolio and move into cash. He has saved us a large fortune!
When no one was looking, in early January, he warned that the Wuhan Flu was going to become pandemic that would bring the global economy to a dead stop. Simultaneously he predicted the drop of oil from $65 to sub$27 and the collapse of the stock markets. All these predictions were in papers he wrote, and speeches he gave (some at my Invest Africa events), and most people then thought him mad. How silly (and poor) they look now.
I will state from the outset that I generally shun predictions and, by extension, am suspicious of those that claim to see the future. Nonetheless, while David refers to “predictions” on his website, I believe that these are better described as an interpretation of geopolitical conditions through the prism of his Stages of Empire theory. This has enabled David to consistently make seemingly outlandish but remarkably accurate interpretations of current events and, by extension, market calls. Given his interpretative framework, I see no reason why David’s analysis should not remain as consistently accurate for many years to come.
Andy Pfaff - Chief Investment Officer | Coherent Commodity Investment (Pty) Ltd
Many thanks for your Valuable advice on positioning in different asset classes.
Prakash Shirke - CFA Investment Adviser
Recalling our meeting at a Hannam and Partners dinner and subsequent lunch, I have regarded you as something of a sage as you predicted both the Trump victory and Brexit referendum as well as the market meltdown which we have witnessed over the past week or so.
John Battersby - Director of the South African Chamber of Commerce consultant/journalist/author
Several years ago I had the fortune of meeting David Murrin through Rob Hersov. David captured his audience with his candid dialogue, no frill content and a wit that equaled his exceptional insights. His ability to leverage off historical context and provide relevance to the current global political arena had his audience spellbound. I would recommend David as both a speaker or VIP dinner guest at any table.
Ariella Kuper - CEO Solution Strategists Pty Ltd
I don’t know enough about charting to make much of it myself, but I’ve seen enough to recognize the repetitive nature of market-driven behaviour. Market patterns do repeat and are therefore worth paying attention to. For instance, for a superb overview, take a look at David Murrin’s website. His global forecasts and commentary is worth a sign up to run through his chart-supported outlook and reading of the underlying forces at play
Bill Blain - Morning Porridge and Shard Capital
David Murrin is a long time friend as well as a very special investor. He brings to the 21st century an enormous amount of experience as well as knowledge. We live in a very difficult environment. He is in invaluable.
Johnathan Smith Founder - Chesapeake Asset Management
David Murrin is one of the best global macro forecasters I know, do sign up for his newsletter… ...he is an outstanding human and one of my favourite people in this industry
Anric Blatt Managing Partner - Global Fund Advisors
You were spot on your forecast of the Tory majority when I spoke with you 2 months before the November election. You were spot on with your forecast months before the Covid-19 pandemic of what impact it would have on the global economy and I did not believe you ! You have been spot on with gold and commodity prices.
As you know, I tend to always look on the bright side of life and try and believe that disasters will be averted but this pandemic and the global economic partial paralysis is an event which I never thought I would experience in my lifetime and clearly will have disastrous economic ramifications for the medium term.
Retrospection can teach us all lessons but the accurate vision for the future is a rare talent.
Lord St. John Anthony - 22nd Baron St John of Bletso is a British peer, politician, businessman and solicitor
FINANCIAL MARKETS ANALYST
You’ll receive David’s invaluable real time trade recommendations, including charts and market outlooks.
Choose one sector from Stocks, FX, Bonds, Emerging Markets or Commodities, and receive real time updates and forecasts.
1 month - £1000
Immediate access to Murrinations, David’s blog, as well as updates via newsletter alerts. David writes about geopolitics, national security/military, history and financial markets. Worth £500 p.a.
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Access to Arkent Scenario Updates - unified strategic market perspectives, within a secure member’s area on the website. Also sent in a newsletter, within minutes of publication to the website.
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Access to David’s Financial Market Analysis & Forecasts - real time trade recommendations across Equity Indices, Companies, FX Bonds, precious metals and commodities, within a secure member’s area on the website. Also sent in a newsletter, within minutes of publication to the website.
View an example analysis & forecast
Receive analysis on 1 sector and all indices within - View all available market sectors
£1000 per month
ADDITIONAL SECTORS + £1000 PER MONTH
+ VAT UK ONLY
Asset Strategist
If you’re interested in David’s strategic market perspectives, then this is for you.
These strategy updates are titled Arkent Updates, named after the Ark and severity of the next expected global economic downturn.
1 month - £1500
Immediate access to Murrinations, David’s blog, as well as updates via newsletter alerts. David writes about geopolitics, national security/military, history and financial markets. Worth £500 p.a.
View an example post
Access to Arkent Updates - unified strategic market perspectives, within a secure member’s area on the website. Also sent in a newsletter, within minutes of publication to the website.
View an example update
Access to David’s Financial Market Analysis & Forecasts - real time trade recommendations across Equity Indices, Companies, FX Bonds, precious metals and commodities, within a secure member’s area on the website. Also sent in a newsletter, within minutes of publication to the website.
View an example analysis & forecast
Receive analysis on 1 sector and all indices within - View all available market sectors
£1500 per month
+ VAT UK ONLY
PREMIUM STRATEGIST PACKAGE
In addition to David’s strategic market perspectives, titled Arkent Updates, this package will give you David’s invaluable real time trade recommendations, including charts and market outlooks.
Choose one sector from Stocks, FX, Bonds, Emerging Markets or Commodities, and receive real time updates and forecasts.
1 month - £2200
Immediate access to Murrinations, David’s blog, as well as updates via newsletter alerts. David writes about geopolitics, national security/military, history and financial markets. Worth £500 p.a.
View an example post
Access to Arkent Updates - unified strategic market perspectives, within a secure member’s area on the website. Also sent in a newsletter, within minutes of publication to the website.
View an example update
Access to David’s Financial Market Analysis & Forecasts - real time trade recommendations across Equity Indices, Companies, FX Bonds, precious metals and commodities, within a secure member’s area on the website. Also sent in a newsletter, within minutes of publication to the website.
View an example analysis & forecast
Receive analysis on 1 sector and all indices within - View all available market sectors
£2200 per month
ADDITIONAL SECTORS + £1000 PER MONTH
+ VAT UK ONLY
Global Macro Package
David’s premium package is for anyone who needs David’s strategic market perspectives, updates and forecasts for all sectors: Stocks, FX, Bonds, Emerging Markets and Commodities.
You’ll receive real time updates and forecasts as and when the markets changes, giving you predictions on when to make your move.
1 month - £5000
+ VAT UK ONLY
Immediate access to Murrinations, David’s blog, as well as updates via newsletter alerts. David writes about geopolitics, national security/military, history and financial markets. Worth £500 p.a.
View an example post
Access to Arkent Updates - unified strategic market perspectives, within a secure member’s area on the website. Also sent in a newsletter, within minutes of publication to the website.
View an example update
Access to David’s Financial Market Analysis - real time trade recommendations across Equity Indices, Companies, FX Bonds, precious metals and commodities, within a secure member’s area on the website. Also sent in a newsletter, within minutes of publication to the website.
View an example update
Receive analysis on 1 sector and all indices within - View all available market sectors
Global Strategic Consultancy
David’s personalised consulting service, for C suite executives, private equity firms, heads of family businesses or Asset Managers, provides a bespoke selection of insights, predications and market strategies. Integrated with regular briefings over email and by phone or video conference, as and when you need it most.
Arkent Scenario; Heads Up Phase 3 is Accelerating
Above is the Vix Chart that is running on rails. Expect a major upwards move in Volatility next week. As the wave 3 accelerates
Although last week might have seemed relatively quiet I believe that it has set the scene for some very big weeks ahead as our Phase 3 scenario begins to move into reality. The five crises of American decline are all in play and any one of them can appear from nowhere. Most of all I believe that with the perception of the Fed PUT making investments an apparent dead cert, everyone is max long and only a few smart investors are boldly short. The longs are in my view the walking dead.Note the risks of a stock market crash decline are extremely high, as delusion andreality meet.
1. Bond Markets
Look set to break to the upside in price in Bunds and US T Notes. This will be a dash to negative yields from the current 0.7% to -0.3% as the reality of the US economic collapse hits home. Note the bond market is much smarter than the equity market. Breaks only ½ appoint higher should see accelerations to the upside. However once yields have gone negative the next phase will be a sovereign debt crisis due to the hugh debt levels incurred by the response to the pandemic compounding the already high debt burdens. As reported in the Guardian today.
Britain’s public debt is larger than the size of the country’s economy for the first time since 1963, after the government borrowed a record £55bn in May.
The total level of debt has risen by £173bn over the last year to reach £1.95tn, or 100.9% of GDP, as ministers introduced unprecedented support for businesses and households during the coronavirus crisis.
The UK joined Italy, the US and Japan in the club of nations with levels of borrowing higher than their national income as the latest Office for National Statisticsfigures showed the UK government borrowed £55.2bn in May, roughly nine times more than the same month last year and the highest monthly borrowing since comparable records began in 1993.
2.Gold and Silver
Look ready to break higher with Bonds. After a period of lateral corrections, I expect these two metals to truly surprise in the strength of their rally in the week ahead.
3.The Dollar.
Has been in a lateral correction, but I expect that the trend of the decline of the dollar will continue next week. Especially as the move to negative rates removes and Dollar carry advantage.
4.Emerging Markets
The MSCI along with other EM stock markets has been very correlated to the SP500 and similarly is ready to decline from current levels in the Phase 3 decline. What is fascinating is that the Dollar/Em currency pairs turned earlier than the stock markets complex by a week and have been coiling for a major upside break (EM currency weakness) to new highs.
5.Commodities
Have been behaving like equities with coincident timing and they two finished their wave 2s on Friday so should drop in the days to come.
6.Individual Equities.
We are keen on three sectors.
- Long gold and silver stocks as they are set to sore so max positions here.
- Short the banking sector will suffer very heavily with the negative rate move.
- Short oil stocks will have a powerful drop as oil falls once more to below break evens.
Of note is that Tesla looks to have made a high and reversed (we are short) and all the strong US stocks that drove the corrective rally are now reversing.
7.Equities.
Our scenario that OUR Phase 2 high was on 9/10 June looks stronger at this week's end.
Last week was in essence the wave 2 correction week, with a powerful rally that conformed to expectations of an irregular pattern that got every bull in town hot and excited. The mantra I heard all week was, see I told you you could not fight the FED and ECB! What fascinated me however was that no one seemed to realise that the price was lower than the major high of June 9/10th so why were they so bullish? Because wave 2s are all about giving the impression that the previous trend is intact, ie in this case the bull is in play. However Fridays drop is the start of wave 3 and whilst initially, the bulls will think they are right the impending falls below critical levels on the downside will begin to change this psychology. Expect a negative next week with price accelerating to the downside as it progresses. Note the risks of a crash decline are extremely high, as delusion andreality.
8.Special Feature last week's subtle patterns exposed.
As a special feature, I have included the subtly of the pattern differentiation between markets that helped me better predict the short term reversal points and rate the relative strengths of each market.
This service is designed to provide long term and medium term investment outlooks in a range of markets including:
Equities
- Nasdaq
- S&P 500
- Dow Jones Industrial
- Individual Stocks
- DAX
- Euro Stoxx 50
- FTSE 100
- Italy 40
- Spain 35
- China A50
- Other DM Indices
FX
- Dollar Index
- Euro Dollar
- Euro Yen
- Dollar Swiss
- Dollar Yen
- Dollar Yuan
- Dollar Canada
- Sterling (Cable)
- Sterling Euro
- Sterling Yen
- Dollar NZD
- AUD/USD
- AUD/NZD
- EM Currencies
- Bitcoin ($)
Bonds
- US Bonds
- Bunds
- UK Gilts
- Italian BtB
- EU
- High Yield Credit
Emerging Markets
- MSCI Index
- South Africa 40
- Brazil 60
- India 50
- Other EM Indices
- Dollar/Mex
- Dollar/Brazil
- Dollar/Rand
- Dollar Ruble
- Dollar Turkish
Commodities
- Gold
- Silver
- Gold and Silver Stocks
- Platinum
- Palladium
- Carbon Emissions
- Oil
- Natural Gas
- CRB
- Copper
- Iron Ore
- Aluminium
- Lead
- Nickel
- Commodity Stocks
- Corn
- Soya Beans
Those marked in bold are more frequently updated.
Sample Analysis
Below one indices is shown from each of the five sectors covered. Click on an indices or use the arrows provided to view each slide.