Financial Market Forecasts

Predicting Market Moves Before They Happen

David, your fully integrated work combining global geopolitical historical perspective, overlaid with a keen understanding of the inner working of financial markets, provides a level of wisdom that is rare. The quality and depth of research is invaluable to leaders across the political, corporate and investment disciplines.

Satish Rai - Chief Investment Officer OMERS Pension Fund Canada

I have known David for over five years and, during that time (all documented) he has predicted the rise of Trump, every twist and turn during the three-year course of Brexit, including Boris becoming PM (a year before he did), and the landslide election result.

On January 30th he called me and really panicked me (I have all the WhatsApp’s to prove it), which made me dump most of our family equity portfolio and move into cash. He has saved us a large fortune!

When no one was looking, in early January, he warned that the Wuhan Flu was going to become pandemic that would bring the global economy to a dead stop. Simultaneously he predicted the drop of oil from $65 to sub$27 and the collapse of the stock markets. All these predictions were in papers he wrote, and speeches he gave (some at my Invest Africa events), and most people then thought him mad. How silly (and poor) they look now.

Rob Hersov - Chairman of Invest Africa

I will state from the outset that I generally shun predictions and, by extension, am suspicious of those that claim to see the future. Nonetheless, while David refers to “predictions” on his website, I believe that these are better described as an interpretation of geopolitical conditions through the prism of his Stages of Empire theory. This has enabled David to consistently make seemingly outlandish but remarkably accurate interpretations of current events and, by extension, market calls. Given his interpretative framework, I see no reason why David’s analysis should not remain as consistently accurate for many years to come.

Andy Pfaff - Chief Investment Officer | Coherent Commodity Investment (Pty) Ltd

Many thanks for your Valuable advice on positioning in different asset classes.

Prakash Shirke - CFA Investment Adviser

Recalling our meeting at a Hannam and Partners dinner and subsequent lunch, I have regarded you as something of a sage as you predicted both the Trump victory and Brexit referendum as well as the market meltdown which we have witnessed over the past week or so.

John Battersby  - Director of the South African Chamber of Commerce consultant/journalist/author

Several years ago I had the fortune of meeting David Murrin through Rob Hersov. David captured his audience with his candid dialogue, no frill content and a wit that equaled his exceptional insights. His ability to leverage off historical context and provide relevance to the current global political arena had his audience spellbound. I would recommend David as both a speaker or VIP dinner guest at any table.

Ariella Kuper - CEO Solution Strategists Pty Ltd

I don’t know enough about charting to make much of it myself, but I’ve seen enough to recognize the repetitive nature of market-driven behaviour. Market patterns do repeat and are therefore worth paying attention to. For instance, for a superb overview, take a look at David Murrin’s website. His global forecasts and commentary is worth a sign up to run through his chart-supported outlook and reading of the underlying forces at play

Bill Blain - Morning Porridge and Shard Capital

David Murrin is a long time friend as well as a very special investor. He brings to the 21st century an enormous amount of experience as well as knowledge. We live in a very difficult environment. He is in invaluable.

Johnathan Smith Founder - Chesapeake Asset Management

David Murrin is one of the best global macro forecasters I know, do sign up for his newsletter… ...he is an outstanding human and one of my favourite people in this industry

Anric Blatt Managing Partner - involved with hedge funds and the #FinancialPlanning community since 1994, has done due diligence on 15,000+ funds and has been an investor in thousands of them

You were spot on your forecast of the Tory majority when I spoke with you 2 months before the November election. You were spot on with your forecast months before the Covid-19 pandemic of what impact it would have on the global economy and I did not believe you ! You have been spot on with gold and commodity prices.

As you know, I tend to always look on the bright side of life and try and believe that disasters will be averted but this pandemic and the global economic partial paralysis is an event which I never thought I would experience in my lifetime and clearly will have disastrous economic ramifications for the medium term.

Retrospection can teach us all lessons but the accurate vision for the future is a rare talent.

Lord St. John Anthony - 22nd Baron St John of Bletso is a British peer, politician, businessman and solicitor

Quite often, those of us continuously trading in the markets tend to get lost in the noise and pay less attention to the major geopolitical issues that will shape the global economy for years to come. These geopolitical transformations are happening now. David is there to help you bring these issues into focus and help you think outside the box. We've had numerous in-depth discussions on how these transformations will impact not only our portfolios but our lives in general.

Antonino Fortes Senior Portfollio manager

Who is this for?

This service is for:

  • Banks
  • Pension Funds
  • Resource and commodity companies
  • Hedge Funds (Macro and Long/short)
  • Corporate Treasuries
  • Family Offices
  • HNWIs

What is the basis of David's analysis?

David developed a unique and effective set of behavioural models to predict financial markets, whilst at JPM, which were extremely effective and profitable. They acted as the foundation for his 20-year career as a CIO of his hedge fund Emergent. With some remarkable returns in the most bearish of markets (e.g 84% in 2008 - see track record).

What analysis can I get?

David provides two types of market analysis:

  • Long/Short Strategist service is designed to provide long-term and medium-term investment outlooks for long-short funds and aims to follow a portfolio of 50 shares from the sectors that we cover.
  • Individual Share Analysis & Forecasts - this service is designed to provide long-term and medium-term investment outlooks into long and short positions in specific shares specific recommendations in a range of markets.

Do you offer different subscription options?

Yes. David offers an number of different levels of subscription to meet your needs and budget, on a 3 or 12 month basis.

How do I gain access to the analysis?

Once subscribed you can login to the site and view the analysis in a secure area of the site. 

Click on the Pricing tab to view the costs and subscribe now.

markets

David Murrin has been a macro trader since 1986, first working at JPM on its first Prop desk and then as a founder and CIO of his Macro and Emerging Market Fund, Emergent Asset Management, for over 20 years. During that time he has had a remarkable track record of predicting major market declines and profiting extensively from them. Short at the highs and then running with the decline in the 1998 Asian Crisis, the 2001 dot com bubble, the 2003 Argentine crisis, the 2007 bear market, the flash crash of 2011, last but not least the February 2020 pandemic risk-off crisis. However, his work not only accurately predicts these big dislocations and but also then focuses on the safe periods to then extract risk-off Alpha. Subscribing to Global Forecaster is effectively akin to having access to an outsourced but very experienced CIO, with a uniquely successful track record.

Global Forecaster provides one of the broadest and most accurate tools for predicting geopolitical events and financial reversals and trends. This is achieved by the integration of two unique behavioural models which act as independently long-range search radars, de-risking against shocks and finding low-risk and high-return trading opportunities and strategies to maximise investment returns. Both models are based on the mosaic gathering of multiple elements of information that, when integrated, create remarkably accurate predictions. Our results speak for themselves: our two long-range search radars are based on:

  1. Our geopolitical predictions are generated from our theories of human collective behaviour. The Five-Phase Lifecycle, the Polarisation Process and the Commodity K cycles allow us to predict national behaviours such as the path of the Brexit process, the path of American decline and the aggressive rise of China in considerable detail. These models have allowed us to predict every UK and US election result accurately for the past 20 years and accompanying foreign policy changes and focuses. Having built a baseline of global geopolitics, we can quickly detect new factors that will have profound impacts on geopolitical and financial markets, e.g. on 5th January 2020, we accurately predicted that the Wuhan epidemic would become a global pandemic. Most of all, our model allows us to look at the impact of cycles that have a longer wavelength that can be detected in the price history of modern financial markets, such as the decline of the Western Christian Super Empire.
  2. Our pattern recognition models are applied across the whole global market complex. Global Forecaster uses a probabilistic pattern recognition system which is applied to over 67 markets. This includes 23 Equity indices, 22 FX pairs, 6 bond markets, and 16 commodity markets, and also over 100 individual shares. Our Wave counts are in effect a language to describe market behaviour by identifying patterns over multiple timeframes, to locate reversal points that then unfold into longer-term trends, providing multiple risk-return profiles. Each market is then correlated to others in their sector, to confirm the pattern quality, and then sectors are compared to other sectors to create integrated roadmap scenarios that give further certainty to our predictions.

    Having constructed a clear image of the expectations of markets, we apply our fire control radar to apply specific risk recommendations across specific sectors and markets that can be combined into effective portfolios for Alpha-generating strategies.
     
  3. We make specific real-time risk-adjusted trade recommendations, with entry points and stops, and recommended sizes relating to our evaluation of the quality of the trade (ranging from 33%, 66%, 100% 133%, 166%, 200%). The results are then published at the end of each quarter so that our performance in various sectors can be evaluated by our clients, allowing them to assess the reliability of our forecasts and the quality of our returns. New trades are sent within five minutes of publication to clients’ emails, providing actionable real-time trade recommendations. This is ideal for risk-takers who seek specific trade recommendations with precise low-risk-high-reward entry points. The sequence of Gold trades below shows our process.

financial-analysis-chartsfinancial-analysis-chartsfinancial-analysis-chartsfinancial-analysis-charts

Click a chart to view a larger version.

Please use the tabs above to view our USP, example market analysis and recommendations, quarterly appraisals, testimonials, FAQs and our full list of prices with links to subscribe. 

1. Who Are Our Clients?

Global Forecaster’s clients range from the largest pension funds and hedge funds in the world to family offices, professional investors (as defined by the FCA). All who value our long and medium-term strategies. Whilst our hedge fund clients benefit from our specific trading recommendations as part of an integrated strategy. All benefit from the increase of 360-degree situational awareness that we offer, derived from a source of analysis that is independent of the impact of collective sentiment that makes most analysis bullish at the highs and bearish at the lows.

  • Banks
  • Pension Funds
  • Resource and commodity companies
  • Hedge Funds (Macro and Long/short)
  • Corporate Treasuries
  • Family Offices
  • HNWIs

2. How To Access Our Market Analysis and Predictions

Global Forecaster has created a range of Products for the needs of both Macro Directional and Long Short Clients; All new updates will arrive by email to your inbox within 5 minutes of publication. We offer paid trials of 3 months and thereafter 12-month rolling subscriptions. All prices are ex-VAT.

1. Long/Short Strategist service is designed to provide long-term and medium-term investment outlooks for long-short funds and aims to follow a portfolio of 50 shares from the sectors that we cover. We use our macro construct as expressed in our Arkent Macro Scenario Updates to find favoured thematics that allow us to then focus on our chosen sectors, eg we might be bullish on oil so we would then focus on the oil sector. Then within the sector, we look for the strongest share to express a bull view and the weakest share to express a bear view. Thus we use a top-down bottom ups methodology that has proven very successful. Our portfolio is then updated as and when major market events provide new information to manage our active portfolio. This product is ideal for long/short funds,  who seek specific trade strategic and detailed recommendations. When combined with our Individual Share Analysis & Forecasts this seeks to provide precise low risk-high reward entry points. £1500 per month per subscriber.

2. Individual Share Analysis & Forecasts – this service is designed to provide long-term and medium-term investment outlooks into long and short positions in specific shares in a range of markets outlined below. Updates and trade recommendations are sent out in real-time as and when the market moves require. We make specific real-time trade recommendations, with entry points and stops and recommended sizes relating to our evaluation of the quality of the trade (ranging from 33%, 66%, 100% 133%, 166%, 200%). The results are then published at the end of each quarter so that our performance in various sectors can be evaluated by our clients, allowing them to assess the reliability of our forecasts and the quality of our returns. New trades are sent within 2 minutes of publication to clients' emails providing actionable real-time trade recommendations. This product is ideal for risk-takers who seek specific trade recommendations with precise low-risk-high reward entry points. £3500 per month per subscriber. They cover the following sectors:

  • Agriculture
  • Aviation
  • Banks
  • Consumer
  • Credit
  • Energy
  • Entertainment
  • Heavy Industry
  • Hi-Tech
  • Homebuilders
  • Mining
  • Precious Metals
  • Russell 2000
  • Space
  • Travel

3. The Long/Short Package includes The Long/Short Strategist, Equity Indices Analysis & Forecasts and Individual Share Analysis & Forecasts £5000 per month per subscriber. In addition, advisory packages are available on request.

4. Personalised Consulting – We also offer higher levels of engagement to senior risk-takers and C-Suite executives, to maximise their outcomes. Price by agreement. Engage David

Individual Share Analysis & Forecasts

Long/Short Scenarios

This product is ideal for long/short funds, who seek specific trade strategies and detailed recommendations. When combined with our Individual Share Analysis & Forecasts this seeks to provide precise low risk-high reward entry points.

1 month - £1500

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Access to Long/Short Scenario Updates - long-term and medium-term investment outlooks for long-short funds and aims to follow a portfolio of 50 shares from the sectors that we cover, within a secure member’s area on the website. Also sent in a newsletter, within minutes of publication to the website.

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Access to David’s Individual Share Analysis & Forecasts - real time trade recommendations across Agriculture, Aviation, Banks, Consumer, Credit, Energy, Entertainment, Heavy Industry, Hi-Tech, Homebuilders, Mining, Precious Metals, Russell 2000, Space and Travel, within a secure member’s area on the website. Also sent in a newsletter, within minutes of publication to the website.
View an example analysis & forecast

£1500 per month

+ VAT UK ONLY

Individual Share ANALYST

You’ll receive David’s invaluable real time trade recommendations, including charts and market outlooks. Sectors covered include: Agriculture, Aviation, Banks, Consumer, Credit, Energy, Entertainment, Heavy Industry, Hi-Tech, Homebuilders, Mining, Precious Metals, Russell 2000, Space and Travel.

1 month - £3500

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Access to Long/Short Scenario Updates - long-term and medium-term investment outlooks for long-short funds and aims to follow a portfolio of 50 shares from the sectors that we cover, within a secure member’s area on the website. Also sent in a newsletter, within minutes of publication to the website.

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Access to David’s Individual Share Analysis & Forecasts - real time trade recommendations across Agriculture, Aviation, Banks, Consumer, Credit, Energy, Entertainment, Heavy Industry, Hi-Tech, Homebuilders, Mining, Precious Metals, Russell 2000, Space and Travel, within a secure member’s area on the website. Also sent in a newsletter, within minutes of publication to the website.
View an example analysis & forecast

£3500 per month

+ VAT UK ONLY

Long/Short Package

David’s premium package is for anyone who seek specific trade strategies and detailed recommendations.

You’ll receive David’s invaluable real time trade recommendations, including charts and market outlooks, for Equity indices and individual shares across a range of sectors, within a secure member’s area on the website.

 

1 month - £5000

+ VAT UK ONLY

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Access to Long/Short Scenario Updates - long-term and medium-term investment outlooks for long-short funds and aims to follow a portfolio of 50 shares from the sectors that we cover, within a secure member’s area on the website. Also sent in a newsletter, within minutes of publication to the website.

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Access to David’s Individual Share Analysis & Forecasts - real time trade recommendations across Agriculture, Aviation, Banks, Consumer, Credit, Energy, Entertainment, Heavy Industry, Hi-Tech, Homebuilders, Mining, Precious Metals, Russell 2000, Space and Travel, within a secure member’s area on the website. Also sent in a newsletter, within minutes of publication to the website.
View an example analysis & forecast

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Access to David’s Financial Market Analysis & Forecasts - real time trade recommendations across Equity Indices, within a secure member’s area on the website. Also sent in a newsletter, within minutes of publication to the website.
View an example analysis & forecast

David Murrin's registered office is:

The Mill, Blackdown Park, Haselmere, Surrey GU27 3BU

Email

Liability disclaimer

While every effort has been made to provide clear, accurate and complete information, the changing nature of laws and regulations may lead to delays, omissions or inaccuracies in information contained on this website. David Murrin does not guarantee that the website will be error-free, omission-free, free from viruses, uninterrupted or without delay. Therefore, the information is provided ‘as is' without warranties of any kind, expressed or implied, including accuracy, timeliness and completeness.

The information contained on the website has been prepared for general guidance only; it does not constitute professional advice. Users should consult with a professional advisers for advice concerning specific matters before making any decision. David Murrin does not accept liability or responsibility for loss (personal or business) occasioned to any person acting or refraining from action as a result of any information contained on this website.

The website contains hypertext links to third party websites. David Murrin cannot provide any warranty (express or implied) as to the accuracy or source of information contained on these third party websites. Hypertext links from the David Murrin website to third party websites do not constitute any endorsement of these third party companies or organisations and are provided purely as a convenience to our users.

Long/short Scenarios and Individual Share Analysis Subscriptions (“the Service”)

  • 100% advance payment for subscription packages and for renewals
  • Subscription period starts from the date of payment realization.
  • No refund of payment allowed under any circumstances.

All decisions of buying & selling stocks are at the sole discretion of the subscriber. The recommendations are based on Technicals/Fundamentals, Facts, Indicators and other methods, which change as the markets are dynamic and we are not liable for any loss that could occur as a result of the recommendations.

You should be aware of the risks inherent in the stock market. Past performance does not guarantee or imply future success. You cannot assume that profits or gains will be realized or that any recommendation made by the Service will be profitable. The purchase of securities discussed by the Service may result in the loss of some or all of any investment made. We recommend that you consult a stockbroker or financial advisor before buying or selling securities, or making any investment decisions. You assume the entire cost and risk of any investing and/or trading you choose to undertake.

All information provided by the Service is obtained from sources believed to be accurate and reliable. However, due to the number of sources from which information on the Service is obtained, and the inherent hazards of electronic distribution, there may be delays, omissions, or inaccuracies in such information.

These terms and conditions apply to the User who uses the Online Payment Services provided for any payment made to David Murrin. By authorizing a payment to David Murrin through the online payment service, it would be treated as a deemed acceptance of these terms and conditions. David Murrin reserves all the rights to amend these terms and conditions at any time.

Under the AIFMD, a "'professional investor' means an investor which is considered to be a professional client or may, on request, be treated as a professional client within the meaning of Annex II to Directive 2004/39/EC".i.e a professional investor means an investor who possesses the experience, knowledge and expertise to make its own investment decisions and properly assess the risks that it incurs.

No Retransmission Of Information

The services are strictly provided for personal and non-commerical use. You may not resell, redistribute, broadcast or transfer the information or use the information in a searchable, machine-readable database unless separately and specifically authorized in writing by David Murrin prior to such use.

Copyright

Copyright and all intellectual property rights in the content of this site are vested with David Murrin and reserved, unless indicated otherwise. The content of this site belongs to David Murrin unless indicated otherwise.

Any unauthorised use of any material on the website may violate copyright, trademark and other laws. Materials on this website may not be modified, reproduced or publicly displayed, performed or distributed or used for any public or commercial purposes.

Links

Our website contains links to other sites, but this Privacy Policy applies only to personal data collected via the website operated by David Murrin, and to how David Murrin processes personal data. We are not responsible for the privacy policies of other sites.

Use of email

Although we take great care to protect the security of communications to and from our website, please be aware that we cannot guarantee that such communications will remain confidential before they have arrived in or after they have left our systems.

Summary of Global Forecaster

Global Forecaster is a world leader in predicting geopolitical and financial market moves, leading to high alpha generation.

The Global Forecaster’s range of products has been designed to be the perfect adjunct to enhance CIOs and risk-takers investment returns. We provide a fully accountable real-time trade recommendation platform. This allows our clients to access the systematic trading inputs from an external Alpha generating CIO, with 35 years of macro directional trading experience.

Recommendations are made based on pattern recognition techniques in some 5 sectors and 80 markets within the macro markets complex and 200 shares and are structured as a transparent real-time portfolio. Our strategies are published as Long/short scenarios, which highlight the Geopolitical views contained in our Murrinations that should be included in the investment thesis. Our financial analysis service then gives recommendations of trades that we are running and the new ones we will be looking to put on. Then every new trade recommendation is notified by an email alert, with a real-time trade with an entry point/stop level/size.

Individual Shares

  • AVIATION
  • BANKING
  • CREDIT
  • ENERGY
  • ENTERTAINMENT
  • HI-TECH
  • HEAVY INDUSTRY
  • HOMEBUILDERS
  • MINING
  • PRECIOUS METALS
  • RUSSELL 2000
  • SPACE

Global Forecaster Trade Recommendations

GF is structured to be a transparent real-time portfolio. With the strategy published as Long/short scenarios, which heights the geopolitical views from the Murrinations that should be included in the investment thesis. The conclusion then gives outlines of trades we are running and the new ones we will be looking to put on. Then every new trade recommendation is notified by an email alert. With a real-time trade with an entry point/stop level/size.

The below table shows  an example of a supermax long gold trade entered at the lows which as part of our major play within our precious metals strategy

  • Numbers T16a to T 16c refer to 3 separate trade entry points 100% +100%+200% to make a total 400% sized  trade
  • Over 8 quarters up to the end of Q320, gold has made over 420 trade units (trade sizes are normally from (33%) =3.3 units to (200%)= 20units. Only once in 12 months or so would we make a (400%)40 unit recommendation, like the one in play at the moment.
  • Note that the market to market (in yellow) recommendation T16a to c is up 300 units this quarter-which is a whooper of trade. And makes a total return in gold of 720.5 units 40 unit over 8.5 quarters.
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For Silver, the returns were even greater.

  • Over 8 quarters up to the end of Q320 silver has made over 598 trade units
  • Note that the current recommendations T22a,b,c, are now up 386 units for this quarter which makes silver the highest return of all 80 of the macro markest that we trade and track at 985 units over 8.5 quarters.
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Every quarter we then publish our results for every sector and every market and a summary of our top 15 best markets at the end of each quarter. Showing our consistency and breadth of coverage.

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Portfolio Construction

From this system, we can build any portfolio according to the market and sector and the risk allowance.

Eg a simple silver plus gold portfolio that equated to risking  0.5% per 10 trade units would have made

Gold(720 units) plus silver (985.1 units)=42.2% over 9 quarters

never risking more than 1% at any one time, except the last current trade that risked 2%

These are significant risk-adjusted returns.

Furthermore, we can build any portfolio of any composition using this process in our long-short share positions.

 

Long/Short Sectors

This service is designed to provide long term and medium term investment outlooks in a range of markets including:

Heavy Industry

  • Fuji Heavy Industries
  • Melrose

Homebuilders

  • DR Horton
  • Barratt
  • Lennar Corp
  • Pultegroup Inc

Mining

  • Glencore
  • BHP
  • Freeport McMoRan
  • Rio Tinto
  • Yellow Cake PLC

Precious Metals

  • Pan American Silver
  • Silver Lake Resources
  • SSR Mining
  • Wheaton Precious Metals
  • Kirkland Lake Gold Ltd
  • Novagold Resources
  • Eldorado Gold
  • Barrick Gold
  • Coeur
  • GoldFields
  • Hecla Gold
  • Sibyane Stillwater

Hi-Tech

  • Taiwan Semi Conductor
  • Apple
  • Facebook
  • Microsoft
  • Tesla
  • Amazon

Russell 2000 Shares

  • Appian
  • Gamestock
  • Gamestock
  • Novavax
  • Plug Power

Aviation

  • Airbus
  • International Consolidated Airlines Group
  • Boeing
  • Rolls Royce
  • Easy Jet

Space

  • Virgin

Banks

  • HSBC
  • Lloyds PLC
  • Nat West PLC
  • Capital One
  • Bancorp
  • Bank Of America
  • Bank Of Asia
  • Bank Of Scotland
  • Barclays
  • Citi
  • Goldmans
  • JPM
  • Lloyds

Credit

  • Mastercard
  • Visa

Energy

  • BP
  • Chevron
  • Exxon
  • Premier Oil
  • Shell
  • Tullow

Entertainment

  • Peleton
  • Netflix
  • Disney

Those marked in bold are more frequently updated.

Sample Forecasts

Below are some examples from the sectors covered. Click on a sector or use the arrows provided to view each slide.

Heavy Industry
Precious Metals
Precious Metals
Hi-Tech
Aviation
Aviation
Entertainment

Melrose Industries Ready For A Major Decline

Medium Term
Very Bearish

Melrose reversed as anticipated below 200 leaving a double top to the three corrective wave rally.

A break below 140 will see acceleration to ultimately reach new lows on  March 2020. This a weaker version of the FTSE-100 pattern.

lower stops to entry point at 175.0

Melrose 2D

Hecla (Gold ) Mining Ready To Rally Strongly

Medium Term
Very Bullish

The majority of our Gold and Silver longs have survived the recent correction very well, having been very well positioned. Out of 12 only four stopped us out. One of Which is Hecla.

However the pattern of this being  end of of a correction is still in place so we are rentering our long position,

T13b buy 100% @ $500 with a $455 stop

 

Hecla T13b

Novagold Looking Good To Rally

Medium Term
Very Bullish

Novagold is looking good to rally from here and  we are targeting 1400

Buy 100% in T18a here @ 720 with a 665 stop.

T18a Novagold

FaceBook Ready To Face Plant

Medium Term
Very Bearish

Facebook has traced out 5 clear wave since 2013 and most critically its 4th wave is a triangle and as such we expect it to return to its base in the 25000 zone in what at the monet looks to be a 4th wave of larger degree as Long term it may well mount another rally to new high from that region in the year ahead.

But before that Tin hats on as the controller at Duxford famously said as the German bombers appeared overhead!

T2a sell 200% here @ 36252 with a 38425 stop

facebook T2a

Boeing's debt Weighs Heavily

Medium Term
Bearish

Boeing looks to have completed it correction and should now decline to new lows

Short 100% in T4 from 32423

Boeing T4

Easy Jet Not Looking So Easy

Medium Term
Very Bearish

Easy Jet looks to have completed a very clear three wave correction since March  2020 which is now ready to break lower very sharply.A break below 930 should accelerate the decline. Our 12 month target is sub 400.

T27s a sell 100% @ 1016 with 1090 stop

Easy Jet T27 S

Peletons Fall makes 15x On Our Short Position

Medium Term
Bearish

Peleton has fallen dramatically to make 15x our original risk but there is still more to come to the downside.

lower stop to 8000 and run the trade.

Peleton T21 D

Risk Allocation Rules

  1. Trade sizes are allocated on previous success and quality of the individual signals combined with signals from the bigger picture.
  2. The trade weighting model has evolved over the past quarters to hopefully give clients an improved measure of the perceived quality of opportunity associated with a trade recommendation. The essential principle is that each trade recommendation can have up to 10 risk unit on at any one time.100%=a 10 unit risk when translated into our performance stats.
    1. In Q4;2019 and Q1;2020 Trades were weighted with up to three risk units. Either 1x or 2x or 3x positions. In effect, a 1x position was a 33.3% weighting and  3x was a 100% weighting.
    2. In Q2;2020 Trades were weighted with up to nine risk units. Either 3x or 6x or 9x positions. In effect, a 3x position was a 33.3% weighting and  9x was a 100% weighting.
    3. In Q3;2020 Trades are migrating from the Q2;2020 structure (above) to one of the percentages. Thus In effect, a 3x position moves to a 33.3% weighting and a 9x moves to 100% weighting.
  3. Each unit is the same monetary amount from entry to stop, adjusted to size. The tighter the stop the bigger the trade size.
  4. Stops are moved as the trade progress and labelled stop 1, stop 2 and stop 3, etc.
  5. As our levels are set precisely we allow for errors in data and illiquidity. Thus stops have a discretionary add to survive through high or low tick outs.
    1. 0.5% a percent ticks in equity indexes and 2% on individual equities
    2. 40 ticks on ten year Bond trades.
    3. 0.5% on FX.
    4. 0.5% on Gold 0.9% cents on silver.
    5. 1.2% cents on Oil and all other commodities
  6. Each quarter-end there will be a performance summary  for my geopolitical calls and market calls and profitability concerning each market https://www.davidmurrin.co.uk/arkent-scenario-updates/arkent-q1-2020-performance-appraisal

QUANTUM ENTANGLEMENT AND COLLECTIVE HUMAN BEHAVIOUR

From the start of my career in finance as discretionary trader 35 years ago, I have believed that the price of a market at any one time contains all aspects of the information available. Why I hear you ask?

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GEOPOLITICS AND MACRO TRADING

Global macro managers have to navigate a complex web of interconnected risks: market, credit, liquidity, financing, counterparty and operational, to name but a few...

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1. Who Are Our Clients?

Global Forecaster’s clients range from the largest pension funds and hedge funds in the world to family offices, professional investors (as defined by the FCA). All who value our long and medium-term strategies. Whilst our hedge fund clients benefit from our specific trading recommendations as part of an integrated strategy. All benefit from the increase of 360-degree situational awareness that we offer, derived from a source of analysis that is independent of the impact of collective sentiment that makes most analysis bullish at the highs and bearish at the lows.

  • Banks
  • Pension Funds
  • Resource and commodity companies
  • Hedge Funds (Macro and Long/short)
  • Corporate Treasuries
  • Family Offices
  • HNWIs

2. How To Access Our Market Analysis and Predictions

Global Forecaster has created a range of Products for the needs of both Macro Directional and Long Short Clients; All new updates will arrive by email to your inbox within 5 minutes of publication. We offer paid trials of 3 months and thereafter 12-month rolling subscriptions. All prices are ex-VAT.

1. Arkent Macro Scenario Updates - Our macro market strategy, which integrates all of the elements of our Geopolitical perspectives (Murrinations) and market views into one coherent strategy and perspective. They are updated as and when major market events provide new information, which is on average once or twice a month. This product is ideal for pension funds and family offices with a medium to long time frame, and for shorter-term risk-takers to define create a framework within which to apply market risk. £1500 per month per subscriber.

2. Individual Macro Market Analysis & Forecasts - this service is designed to provide specific recommendations in the market sectors outlined below, with entry points and stops and recommended sizes relating to our evaluation of the quality of the trade (ranging from 33%, 66%, 100% 133%, 166%, 200%). Our results are published at the end of each quarter, so that our performance in various sectors can be evaluated by our clients, allowing them to assess the reliability of our forecasts and the quality of our returns. New trades are sent via emails providing actionable real-time trade recommendations. Each sector is available to subscribe to separately or all together as part of our Global Macro package.; The global market sectors are, £1000 per sector per month per subscriber:

  • Equity Indices
  • FX and Crypto Currencies
  • Bond Markets
  • Emerging Market FX and Indices
  • Commodity Markets

3. The Premium Strategist Package includes Murrinations, Arkent Macro Scenario Updates, and one Individual Macro Market Analysis sector for £2200 per month.

4. The Global Macro Package includes Murrinations, Arkent Macro Scenario Updates, and Individual Macro Market Analysis & Forecasts for £5000 per month. In addition, advisory packages are available on request.

5. Personalised Consulting – We also offer higher levels of engagement to senior risk-takers and C-Suite executives, to maximise their outcomes. Price by agreement. Engage David

 

David Murrin's registered office is:

The Mill, Blackdown Park, Haselmere, Surrey GU27 3BU

Email

Liability disclaimer

While every effort has been made to provide clear, accurate and complete information, the changing nature of laws and regulations may lead to delays, omissions or inaccuracies in information contained on this website. David Murrin does not guarantee that the website will be error-free, omission-free, free from viruses, uninterrupted or without delay. Therefore, the information is provided ‘as is' without warranties of any kind, expressed or implied, including accuracy, timeliness and completeness.

The information contained on the website has been prepared for general guidance only; it does not constitute professional advice. Users should consult with a professional advisers for advice concerning specific matters before making any decision. David Murrin does not accept liability or responsibility for loss (personal or business) occasioned to any person acting or refraining from action as a result of any information contained on this website.

The website contains hypertext links to third party websites. David Murrin cannot provide any warranty (express or implied) as to the accuracy or source of information contained on these third party websites. Hypertext links from the David Murrin website to third party websites do not constitute any endorsement of these third party companies or organisations and are provided purely as a convenience to our users.

Arkent Strategists and Macro Market Subscriptions (“the Service”)

  • 100% advance payment for subscription packages and for renewals
  • Subscription period starts from the date of payment realization.
  • No refund of payment allowed under any circumstances.

All decisions of buying & selling stocks are at the sole discretion of the subscriber. The recommendations are based on Technicals/Fundamentals, Facts, Indicators and other methods, which change as the markets are dynamic and we are not liable for any loss that could occur as a result of the recommendations.

You should be aware of the risks inherent in the stock market. Past performance does not guarantee or imply future success. You cannot assume that profits or gains will be realized or that any recommendation made by the Service will be profitable. The purchase of securities discussed by the Service may result in the loss of some or all of any investment made. We recommend that you consult a stockbroker or financial advisor before buying or selling securities, or making any investment decisions. You assume the entire cost and risk of any investing and/or trading you choose to undertake.

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Under the AIFMD, a "'professional investor' means an investor which is considered to be a professional client or may, on request, be treated as a professional client within the meaning of Annex II to Directive 2004/39/EC".i.e a professional investor means an investor who possesses the experience, knowledge and expertise to make its own investment decisions and properly assess the risks that it incurs.

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Copyright and all intellectual property rights in the content of this site are vested with David Murrin and reserved, unless indicated otherwise. The content of this site belongs to David Murrin unless indicated otherwise.

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 Summary of Global Forecaster

Global Forecaster is a world leader in predicting geopolitical and financial market moves, leading to high alpha generation.

The Global Forecaster’s range of products has been designed to be the perfect adjunct to enhance CIOs and risk-takers investment returns. We provide a fully accountable real-time trade recommendation platform. This allows our clients to access the systematic trading inputs from an external Alpha generating CIO, with 35 years of macro directional trading experience.

Recommendations are made based on pattern recognition techniques in some 5 sectors and 80 markets within the macro markets complex and 200 shares and are structured as a transparent real-time portfolio. Our strategies are published as Arkent views, which highlight the Geopolitical views contained in our Murrinations that should be included in the investment thesis. Coupled with our road map for the macro sector complex, and an analysis of each macro/share sector and how it interrelates with the other markets. Our financial analysis service then gives recommendations of trades that we are running and the new ones we will be looking to put on. Then every new trade recommendation is notified by an email alert, with a real-time trade with an entry point/stop level/size.

Macro Products

  • Equities
  • FX
  • Bonds
  • Emerging Markets
  • Commodities

Global Forecaster Trade Recommendations

GF is structured to be a transparent real-time portfolio. With the strategy published as Arkent views, which heights the geopolitical views from the Murrinations that should be included in the investment thesis. Coupled with our road map and an analysis of each macro/share sector and how it interrelates with the other markets. The conclusion then gives outlines of trades we are running and the new ones we will be looking to put on. Then every new trade recommendation is notified by an email alert. With a real-time trade with an entry point/stop level/size.

The below table shows  an example of a supermax long gold trade entered at the lows which as part of our major play within our precious metals strategy

  • Numbers T16a to T 16c refer to 3 separate trade entry points 100% +100%+200% to make a total 400% sized  trade
  • Over 8 quarters up to the end of Q320, gold has made over 420 trade units (trade sizes are normally from (33%) =3.3 units to (200%)= 20units. Only once in 12 months or so would we make a (400%)40 unit recommendation, like the one in play at the moment.
  • Note that the market to market (in yellow) recommendation T16a to c is up 300 units this quarter-which is a whooper of trade. And makes a total return in gold of 720.5 units 40 unit over 8.5 quarters.
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For Silver, the returns were even greater.

  • Over 8 quarters up to the end of Q320 silver has made over 598 trade units
  • Note that the current recommendations T22a,b,c, are now up 386 units for this quarter which makes silver the highest return of all 80 of the macro markets that we trade and track at 985 units over 8.5 quarters.
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Every quarter we then publish our results for every sector and every market and a summary of our top 15 best markets at the end of each quarter. Showing our consistency and breadth of coverage.

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Portfolio Construction

From this system, we can build any portfolio according to the market and sector and the risk allowance.

Eg a simple silver plus gold portfolio that equated to risking  0.5% per 10 trade units would have made

Gold(720 units) plus silver (985.1 units)=42.2% over 9 quarters

never risking more than 1% at any one time, except the last current trade that risked 2%

These are significant risk-adjusted returns.

Furthermore, we can build any portfolio of any composition using this process in both Macro markets positions.

Who is this for?

This service is for:

  • Banks
  • Pension Funds
  • Resource and commodity companies
  • Hedge Funds (Macro and Long/short)
  • Corporate Treasuries
  • Family Offices
  • HNWIs

What is the basis of David's analysis?

David developed a unique and effective set of behavioural models to predict financial markets, whilst at JPM, which were extremely effective and profitable. They acted as the foundation for his 20-year career as a CIO of his hedge fund Emergent. With some remarkable returns in the most bearish of markets (e.g 84% in 2008 - see track record).

What analysis can I get?

David provides two types of market analysis:

  • Arkent Scenario Updates named after the Ark and severity of the next expected global economic downturn. These are the integration of all elements of our market views into one coherent strategy and perspective. Integrating price models and our Geopolitical perspectives (Murrinations) into a single holistic predictive perspective. They are updated as and when major market events provide new information, which is on average once or twice a month.
  • Individual Macro Market Analysis & Forecasts - This service is designed to provide long term and medium-term investment outlooks and specific recommendations in a range of markets outlined below. Updates are sent out real time as and when the market moves require.

Do you offer different subscription options?

Yes. David offers an number of different levels of subscription to meet your needs and budget, on a 3 or 12 month basis.

How do I gain access to the analysis?

Once subscribed you can login to the site and view the analysis in a secure area of the site. 

Click on the Pricing tab to view the costs and subscribe now.

David Murrin has been a macro trader since 1986, first working at JPM on its first Prop desk and then as a founder and CIO of his Macro and Emerging Market Fund, Emergent Asset Management, for over 20 years. During that time he has had a remarkable track record of predicting major market declines and profiting extensively from them. Short at the highs and then running with the decline in the 1998 Asian Crisis, the 2001 dot com bubble, the 2003 Argentine crisis, the 2007 bear market, the flash crash of 2011, last but not least the February 2020 pandemic risk-off crisis. However, his work not only accurately predicts these big dislocations and but also then focuses on the safe periods to then extract risk-off Alpha. Subscribing to Global Forecaster is effectively akin to having access to an outsourced but very experienced CIO, with a uniquely successful track record.

Global Forecaster provides one of the broadest and most accurate tools for predicting geopolitical events and financial reversals and trends. This is achieved by the integration of two unique behavioural models which act as independently long-range search radars, de-risking against shocks and finding low-risk and high-return trading opportunities and strategies to maximise investment returns. Both models are based on the mosaic gathering of multiple elements of information that, when integrated, create remarkably accurate predictions. Our results speak for themselves: our two long-range search radars are based on:

  1. Our geopolitical predictions are generated from our theories of human collective behaviour. The Five-Phase Lifecycle, the Polarisation Process and the Commodity K cycles allow us to predict national behaviours such as the path of the Brexit process, the path of American decline and the aggressive rise of China in considerable detail. These models have allowed us to predict every UK and US election result accurately for the past 20 years and accompanying foreign policy changes and focuses. Having built a baseline of global geopolitics, we can quickly detect new factors that will have profound impacts on geopolitical and financial markets, e.g. on 5th January 2020, we accurately predicted that the Wuhan epidemic would become a global pandemic. Most of all, our model allows us to look at the impact of cycles that have a longer wavelength that can be detected in the price history of modern financial markets, such as the decline of the Western Christian Super Empire.
  2. Our pattern recognition models are applied across the whole global market complex. Global Forecaster uses a probabilistic pattern recognition system which is applied to over 67 markets. This includes 23 Equity indices, 22 FX pairs, 6 bond markets, and 16 commodity markets, and also over 100 individual shares. Our Wave counts are in effect a language to describe market behaviour by identifying patterns over multiple timeframes, to locate reversal points that then unfold into longer-term trends, providing multiple risk-return profiles. Each market is then correlated to others in their sector, to confirm the pattern quality, and then sectors are compared to other sectors to create integrated roadmap scenarios that give further certainty to our predictions.

    Having constructed a clear image of the expectations of markets, we apply our fire control radar to apply specific risk recommendations across specific sectors and markets that can be combined into effective portfolios for Alpha-generating strategies.
     
  3. We make specific real-time risk-adjusted trade recommendations, with entry points and stops, and recommended sizes relating to our evaluation of the quality of the trade (ranging from 33%, 66%, 100% 133%, 166%, 200%). The results are then published at the end of each quarter so that our performance in various sectors can be evaluated by our clients, allowing them to assess the reliability of our forecasts and the quality of our returns. New trades are sent within five minutes of publication to clients’ emails, providing actionable real-time trade recommendations. This is ideal for risk-takers who seek specific trade recommendations with precise low-risk-high-reward entry points. The sequence of Gold trades below shows our process.

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Click a chart to view a larger version.

Please use the tabs above to view our USP, a sample Arkent Scenario, example market analysis and recommendations, quarterly appraisals, testimonials, FAQs and our full list of prices with links to subscribe. 

David, your fully integrated work combining global geopolitical historical perspective, overlaid with a keen understanding of the inner working of financial markets, provides a level of wisdom that is rare. The quality and depth of research is invaluable to leaders across the political, corporate and investment disciplines.

Satish Rai - Chief Investment Officer OMERS Pension Fund Canada

I have known David for over five years and, during that time (all documented) he has predicted the rise of Trump, every twist and turn during the three-year course of Brexit, including Boris becoming PM (a year before he did), and the landslide election result.

On January 30th he called me and really panicked me (I have all the WhatsApp’s to prove it), which made me dump most of our family equity portfolio and move into cash. He has saved us a large fortune!

When no one was looking, in early January, he warned that the Wuhan Flu was going to become pandemic that would bring the global economy to a dead stop. Simultaneously he predicted the drop of oil from $65 to sub$27 and the collapse of the stock markets. All these predictions were in papers he wrote, and speeches he gave (some at my Invest Africa events), and most people then thought him mad. How silly (and poor) they look now.

Rob Hersov - Chairman of Invest Africa

I will state from the outset that I generally shun predictions and, by extension, am suspicious of those that claim to see the future. Nonetheless, while David refers to “predictions” on his website, I believe that these are better described as an interpretation of geopolitical conditions through the prism of his Stages of Empire theory. This has enabled David to consistently make seemingly outlandish but remarkably accurate interpretations of current events and, by extension, market calls. Given his interpretative framework, I see no reason why David’s analysis should not remain as consistently accurate for many years to come.

Andy Pfaff - Chief Investment Officer | Coherent Commodity Investment (Pty) Ltd

Many thanks for your Valuable advice on positioning in different asset classes.

Prakash Shirke - CFA Investment Adviser

Recalling our meeting at a Hannam and Partners dinner and subsequent lunch, I have regarded you as something of a sage as you predicted both the Trump victory and Brexit referendum as well as the market meltdown which we have witnessed over the past week or so.

John Battersby  - Director of the South African Chamber of Commerce consultant/journalist/author

Several years ago I had the fortune of meeting David Murrin through Rob Hersov. David captured his audience with his candid dialogue, no frill content and a wit that equaled his exceptional insights. His ability to leverage off historical context and provide relevance to the current global political arena had his audience spellbound. I would recommend David as both a speaker or VIP dinner guest at any table.

Ariella Kuper - CEO Solution Strategists Pty Ltd

I don’t know enough about charting to make much of it myself, but I’ve seen enough to recognize the repetitive nature of market-driven behaviour. Market patterns do repeat and are therefore worth paying attention to. For instance, for a superb overview, take a look at David Murrin’s website. His global forecasts and commentary is worth a sign up to run through his chart-supported outlook and reading of the underlying forces at play

Bill Blain - Morning Porridge and Shard Capital

David Murrin is a long time friend as well as a very special investor. He brings to the 21st century an enormous amount of experience as well as knowledge. We live in a very difficult environment. He is in invaluable.

Johnathan Smith Founder - Chesapeake Asset Management

David Murrin is one of the best global macro forecasters I know, do sign up for his newsletter… ...he is an outstanding human and one of my favourite people in this industry

Anric Blatt Managing Partner - involved with hedge funds and the #FinancialPlanning community since 1994, has done due diligence on 15,000+ funds and has been an investor in thousands of them

You were spot on your forecast of the Tory majority when I spoke with you 2 months before the November election. You were spot on with your forecast months before the Covid-19 pandemic of what impact it would have on the global economy and I did not believe you ! You have been spot on with gold and commodity prices.

As you know, I tend to always look on the bright side of life and try and believe that disasters will be averted but this pandemic and the global economic partial paralysis is an event which I never thought I would experience in my lifetime and clearly will have disastrous economic ramifications for the medium term.

Retrospection can teach us all lessons but the accurate vision for the future is a rare talent.

Lord St. John Anthony - 22nd Baron St John of Bletso is a British peer, politician, businessman and solicitor

Quite often, those of us continuously trading in the markets tend to get lost in the noise and pay less attention to the major geopolitical issues that will shape the global economy for years to come. These geopolitical transformations are happening now. David is there to help you bring these issues into focus and help you think outside the box. We've had numerous in-depth discussions on how these transformations will impact not only our portfolios but our lives in general.

Antonino Fortes Senior Portfollio manager
Arkent Macro Q1 2022 Performance Review – The Year To Look Up
Arkent Macro Q4 2021 Performance Review-Beaucoup Movement
Arkent Macro Scenarios Q3 2021 Performance Appraisal – The Peak Of The Doomsday Bubble
ARKENT SCENARIO 2021 Q2 PERFORMANCE APPRAISAL
Arkent Scenario 2021 Q1 Performance Appraisal
Arkent Scenerio 2020 Q4 Performance Appraisal

Arkent Macro Q1 2022 Performance Review – The Year To Look Up

eurostoxx

The chart above shows the fall of the EUROSTOXX 50 and our perfect trade location at the high of the bull market.

 

INTRODUCTION

If we described the last quarter as another excellent result, then Q1 2022 knocked the ball out of the park with our geopolitical calls predicting Putin's invasion of Ukraine and the rampant inflation and its impact on economies and markets. Those calls translated into some huge alpha extraction in Equity indices and shares, the Yen's decline, the precious metals and the fall of the Ruble, which we exited at the lows. We strongly recommend that our subscribers take the time to read this analysis of our performance to enhance their understanding our how we consistently extract alpha from the markets.

 

Q1 2022 PERFORMANCE REVIEW CONTENTS

1.      Global Forecaster introduction

2.      Our main Q1 2022 geopolitical calls

3.      Q3 market predictions and performance

4.      Alpha Capture funds and their performance

 

1.0 GLOBAL FORECASTER TRADE RECOMMENDATIONS AND RISK METHODOLOGY

Global Forecaster was set up in the summer of 2019 to inform and advise professional asset managers through troubled waters. During that year, there were obvious indicators that global markets were soon to peak (in February 2020) and collapse with the most grievous consequences. We have called this transition The Great Shift as it is driven by the intersection of the peak of the K wave cycle and hegemonic challenge of China to America and the West.

We now have 11 quarters of performance under our belt, and the results of our geopolitical predictions, market predictions and Alpha Capture fund performances have been exceptional. We believe the key to high returns and long-term success is based on:

1.      Prescient market views generated within a systematic multi-timeframe and price modelling system

2.      Good trade entry points with tight and structurally meaningful stops (entered with contrarian price modelling)

3.      Appropriate position sizing

4.      Risk management following the progression of a trend

5.      Successful trade exit points.

These key five points describe Global Forecaster’s risk methodology. By reading the below quarterly performance appraisal, you will have a better idea of how we apply our risk allocation methodology, as well as how we combine geopolitical predictions using various models from Breaking The Code Of History. All of these real-time predictions have been published on the Global Forecaster website and are available to our clients.

 

 2.0 OUR MAIN Q4 GEOPOLITICAL CALLS IN 2022 SO FAR, THE YEAR TO LOOK UP

 

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We predicted that 2022 would be a tumultuous year as the K Wave Crisis took hold, impacting through wars, inflation, energy and food security challenges with growing political unrest. All of which have come to pass and never have our geopolitical predictive models been more in tune with the unfolding reality and entropic shocks.

Our advice was to position trades early, as we indeed managed to do in the equity indices, and then run them as prices cascade and accelerate. That is exactly what we did within our macro universe and our trade recommendations, with the exception of bonds, as we awaited a clear entry point in that sector on the short side, whilst seeking to avoid any reflex risk-off rally as equities tumble.

For those who have not seen the new film ‘Don’t Look Up’, we recommend you do so as quickly as you can. Rarely has a film captured a society's mental state of total delusion and denial. If it was a comedy that came out of the blue then it would be very amusing; however, it’s not a comedy, but a representative satire on America’s collective psychology and culture today, which is in total denial as to the risks that surround the decline of America. Instead, the leaders and population prefer to occupy themselves with insignificant issues hoping that denial will solve the inescapable existential problems. However, the evidence is that 2022 will be the year to look up, as the threats to America impact all at once. We forecast that 2022 would be a tumultuous year for everyone but especially for asset managers and market participants. This has proven correct and we believe that worse is yet to come.

  1. The COVID Pandemic Is Over. Our prediction at the onset of the pandemic was that it would last for 18–24 months (from March 2020) until a vaccine was applied globally en masse, or herd immunity was reached. Calling the end of the COVID pandemic is the only good news that we could offer in 2022. As we predicted in our Murrinations Insight on 4th December, Omicron – Darkest Before The Dawn, we believed that this is the fourth attenuated wave of the pandemic that inoculates populations without significant deaths and serious illness and thus ends the pandemic. So far, the evidence strongly supports our hypothesis. The Lockdown Brigades across all the Western nations will, in time, be judged as having over-responded to the Omicron threat and will consequently suffer the political consequences. (Also read: The Failures Of Lockdowns And Boris Johnson) This has proven correct.
  2. The Doomsday Stock Market Bubble Will Collapse. The evidence is that the biggest bubble in the history of the Western Christian Super Empire has already made its Thanksgiving highs in November 2021 and is now in the process of building momentum to the downside. It will collapse catastrophically this year, creating a reduction in asset prices of between 50% and 60% (more details are given below in the Market Risks section). This will be coincident with a US Dollar fall and a US debt crisis that will spread to the EU. The switch of modes from the super doomsday bubble feeding the American population with dopamine to cortisol, as prices fall, will put America into threat-sensitive psychology that will, in all probability, come too late to respond to outside aggression form Russia and China to deter it. All Western politicians will consequently face a wave of unpopularity. This collapse is well and truly on track and our greatest alpha extraction has been in the stock markets.
  3. The Year The Dollar Will Dive. This will be the year the Dollar collapses and will be seen as the point when America finally lost it hegemonic and reserve status, much as the Pound did in the year of the Suez crisis. We are targeting 30–40% lower on the Dollar against the major currencies over the next three years. This move has not yet started.
  4. Inflation Will Remain High As Assets Fall, Creating Stagflation And Social Unrest. We expect the increased supply chain constriction from China will only worsen and will at some point stop totally as hostilities build. This upward inflation pressure will more than compensate for any demand collapse, driving inflation higher. We also expect the dam to break concerning the huge devaluation of the Dollar through money printing that will feed into inflation dynamics. Consequently, we could then see the post-collapse bottom of the doomsday cycle be accompanied by high inflation, making rampant stagflation a terrible reality. Inflation on this scale will no doubt translate to a cost of living crisis across the Western economies, causing widespread social unrest and political upheaval that strongly supports socialist and trade unionist policies. This prediction has been accurate and is still unfolding and driving markets and political change.
  5. The Year Of Precious Metals. If you choose one horse to ride in 2022, we recommend our precious metals strategy. For those that subscribe to our Global Trader Product, we have been advocating the main financial survival strategy to be focused in precious metals and their mining stocks. We believe, this year, this strategy will prove to be the only game in town. The strongest rate of price rise in precious metals will be coincident with the Dollar decline. In time, we expect that, as the prices rise, at some stage there will not be enough gold to deliver into EFT and futures structures, placing a massive premium on physical metals and mining stocks. This has been accurate and our alpha extraction has been very high in this sector.
  6. War In Ukraine Is A Certainty based on the K wave Cycle and the weakness of Bidens presidency. This rare and bold prediction was made many months in advance of the invasion and was spot on as has been our analysis of the military situation and fundamental shift into a new age of war.
  7. The Invasion Of Taiwan Is Highly Probable – and remains so.
  8. The Iranian Bid For Nuclear Weapons – is ongoing.
  9. Biden Will Not Survive 2022 In-Office – looks increasingly probable.
  10. Johnson Will Be Removed By His Party – is ongoing and looks increasingly probable.
  11. The Judgement On The Lockdown Strategy Will Be Politically Damning. A prediction that we made at the start of the pandemic crisis, and stand by today, is that the lockdown strategy of Western governments will, in time, be viewed as a misguided response that equated to economic suicide. This is because lockdowns failed to balance the overall relatively low death rate of the majority of the older demographic versus the high magnitude of economic destruction. By focusing on the preservation of the older, less-productive population, governments have sacrificed the futures for the younger population. The failure by Western governments to respond holistically illuminates both the predominant linear thinking process and the influence of the madness of collective behaviour. Governments should have resisted this with clear strategic leadership and those that did not will suffer the consequences (also read: The Failures Of Lockdowns And Boris Johnson).The collapse of the Doomsday Bubble will, in future, bring about clear recognition as to how recklessly the Lockdown Brigade handled economies, by pushing them into collapse. Is ongoing and looks increasingly probable.

 

 

3.0  Q3 MARKET PREDICTIONS AND PERFORMANCE

3.1 Global Forecaster Methodology – Designed For Risk-Takers

We always seek to quantify the accuracy of our recommendations as they translate into market trade recommendations that are readily actionable by risk managers. We are pleased to report that the system we have used over the past two years has produced a very accurate representation of our market calls, both in the direction, size and magnitude of the move. This has allowed risk-takers to quickly assess the accuracy of our past predictions in any market or sector.

To remind you of our methodology behind each trade recommendation; each idea has a risk unit, defined from the entry point to the stop level, and a trade idea in one market can have a maximum of 200% which equates to 20 risk units at any one time. Trade recommendations can be either 33.3%, 66.6%, 100%, 133%, 166% or 200%. The 200% limit in a market can be put on all at once or in combinations of sub-trades. High-conviction trades require the time frames of short, medium and long to all be aligned. Notably, in Q2 2021, the conviction levels were very high due to the high and integrated signal strength associated with our Phase 3 Road Map.

Our strategy is to trade in alignment with long-term directions and trends and then find short-term entry points that translate into long-term time frames that produce tight risk rewards on entry as well as high multiple risk returns. The tight risk rewards on entry may mean that sometimes an entry point might require several attempts. A spreadsheet is available on request to explain all the trades that are displayed on the website and the summary tables below.

We then go a stage further, taking our trade recommendations and applying them to specific fund structures such as Top Macro, General Macro, Long Short and Commodity funds operated on behalf of clients. The history and performance of those funds are given below. 

 

3.2 Top 20 Performing Markets During The Past 33 Months

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Q1 saw a hugely successful alpha extraction process in the Equity index and shares sectors with the EUROSTOXX making some 630 trade units, making it the first market to move above 1,000 units knocking Dollar Turkish off its No.1 spot. Gold and silver made really solid gains again moving to third and fourth whilst the FTS remained in the top five. T-notes and Bunds were lacklustre and lost small amounts, whilst the Ruble trade shot into the tables as price patterns and geopolitics provides a great EM trade to add to our Turkish devaluation scalp.

3.3  Worst 10 Performing Markets During The Past 24 Months

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Q1 saw our worst-performing markets in the commodity sector in oil, which we have struggled to get a good handle on, in contrast to Natuaral Gas which has been a great performer. The only other notable failure was aluminium and nickel which have become complex patterns departing from the other commodity patterns. We note that bad quarters are less than 20% off our top-returning assets, demonstrating good risk-return management.

3.3 Specific Macro Sector Performance

3.3.1 Equity Markets

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NASDAQ

The above NASDAQ chart shows the location of our super max shorts at the high of the move just before the November 2021 Thanksgiving Holiday, which we called precisely, and subsequent trade actions that produced some 295 trade units on a supermax short position.

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EqityQ1

One of our very big calls this quarter has been the high of the Doomsday Bubble going into the Thanksgiving Holiday in 2021, which has proven spot on and was reflected in returns across the index spectrum from Asia to Europe to America. In Europe, the returns in the EUROSTOXX have been spectacular and are ongoing and, in the US, the SP500 NASDAQ and Russell 2000 have been very high indeed, with the expectation that there is much more to come.

 

3.3.2 FX Markets

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yen

Dollar Yen and Sterling Yen and been the only trending FX markets and we are pleased to say that we extracted a significant amount of Alpha in the process. However, we do feel that we exited this trend a wee bit too early to maximise the potential returns.

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FXQ1

As above, our best performance in an otherwise messy market has been short the Yen. In the main Dollar pairs, we have been searching for a high and sell location, which so far has proven unrewarding.

 

3.3.3 Crypto Markets

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Bitcoin1

Bitcoin has been in a 4th wave correction and range bound but has great downside potential.

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CryQ1

We remained bearish of all the Cryptocurrencies throughout Q1 as they traded sideways.

 

 

3.3.4 Bond Markets

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Bonds

US T notes have started to move as we expected.

 

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Bonds

Despite accurately predicting that inflation would skyrocket and thus bond yields rise as prices fell, we missed the key entry point at the start of the quarter and without a good entry point were wary of being short with the risk of a risk-off driven rally if equities accelerated to the downside. We are revaluating this strategy for Q2.

 

 

3.3.5 EM Markets

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ruble

Our short on Dollar Ruble proved very profitable and we exited soon after the invasion which proved prescient as we also predicted the Western sanctions were like taking a knife to a gunfight and would be ineffective at curtailing Putin's ongoing aggression.

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EMQ1

Our Ruble short was by far the best trade in this EM sector and we exited the trade before the return to the Ruble’s starting location pre-war, which is always satisfying. Meanwhile, we have been confounded by the Rand's ongoing strength. Our MSCI trade is following the main equity indices lower.

3.3.6 Commodity Markets

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Goldxc

Gold remains our favourite precious metal and performed very well.

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comQ1

Our precious metal strategy performed very well indeed, but on the negative side, we made a total mess of our oil trading, losing the clarity of the wave count in the price action shown in the below WTI chart. However, we seem to be back on track for Q2 and expect oil to follow natural gas’s Q2 rally.

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Oil

 

4.0 ALPHA CAPTURE FUNDS AND THEIR PERFORMANCE

All our long-short Alpha Capture funds performed exceptionally well in Q4 – two were in the top 10% and one in the top 15% of a sample size of some 250 to 390 of competitors. More details are in our Long Short Performance Appraisal.

 

 

Arkent Macro Q4 2021 Performance Review-Beaucoup Movement

turkey

The chart above shows the Devaluation of The Turkish Lira that allowed us to make very significant returns of some 70X our original risk capital

 

Introduction

We have had another excellent quarter with some outstanding trade recommendations.In Dollar Turkey, Natural Gas, Gold,Cable and Dollar Yen.We strongly recommend that our subscribers take the time to read this analysis of our performance to enhance understanding our how we consistently extract alpha from the markets.

 

Q4 2021 Performance Review Contents

1.      Global Forecaster introduction

2.      Our main Q3 geopolitical calls

3.      Q3 market predictions and performance

4.      Alpha Capture funds and their performance

 

1.0 Global Forecaster Trade Recommendations and Risk Methodology

Global Forecaster was set up in the summer of 2019 to inform and advise professional asset managers through troubled waters. During that year, there were obvious indicators that global markets were soon to peak (in February 2020) and collapse with the most grievous consequences. We have called this transition The Great Shift, as it is driven by the hegemonic challenge of China to America and the West.

We now have ten quarters of performance under our belt, and the results of our geopolitical predictions, market predictions and Alpha Capture fund performances have been exceptional. We believe the key to high returns and long-term success is based on:

1.      prescient market views generated within a systematic multi-timeframe and price modelling system

2.      good trade entry points with tight and structurally meaningful stops (entered with contrarian price modelling)

3.      appropriate position sizing

4.      risk management following the progression of a trend

5.      successful trade exit points.

These five points describe Global Forecaster’s risk methodology. By reading the below quarterly performance appraisal, you will have a better idea of how we apply our risk allocation methodology, as well as how we combine geopolitical predictions using various models from Breaking The Code Of History. All of these real-time predictions have been published on the Global Forecaster website and are available to our clients.]

 

 2.0 Our Main Q4 Geopolitical Calls

1.      The Doomsday Bubble is the name we have given this current asset price bubble. WE EXPECT THIS TO BE THE BIGGEST FINANCIAL COLLAPSE IN WESTERN HISTORY – because when it bursts, the damage that the asset price implosion will cause will be huge and very difficult for the Western economies to recover from. We have been tracking the bursting of the smaller bubbles as the ‘riders of the apocalypse’ very successfully this quarter. We expect that the delusional gap between economic reality and the stock market will imminently close. In  October when the index was at 15200 we recognised that the NASDAQ was in a fith wave extension with a target of 16740. So far the high has held and we expect a reversal in Q1 2022. This prediction is in play and on track

 

2.      Chinese -Western polarisation will accelerate  as the CCP become increasingly aggressive, inducing a secondary polarisation in America 
This prediction is on track and continues to be very significant in its geopolitical impact, but has yet to impact markets

 

3.      The Wolves are Gathering highlighted that after Biden's route from Afghanistan Russian, China and Iran will act as a coordinated pack to challenge America hegemony in Q1/2 2022 Risking Open Conflict  
This prediction is on track and continues to be very significant in its geopolitical impact, but has yet to impact markets
 

4.      Inflation expectations would Accelerate. and be heightened at the peak of wave one of the commodity rally. That shift in perspective would also trigger recognition of not only input inflation but also supply chain inflation and inflation-linked to money printing that would become increasingly dominant ever as input inflation fell in wave 2 of the commodity wave. As such, we argued that inflation increases were systematic and not temporary. However that the commodity Peak of Wave 1 would be followed by a deep wave 2 drops that would signal a demand decline that pauses input inflation for 6–12 months before it returns with a vengeance. Thus, the Western economies will be in varying states of stagflation through this period, initially increasing/a pause/massive stagflation. This prediction is on track and continues to be very significant

 

5.      The global pandemic would last for 18–24 months (from March 2020) and Omicron was the end. until a vaccine is applied globally en masse, or herd immunity is reached. Herd immunity is being bolstered through T cell immunity, which is not as of yet being tested. When Omicron appeared in late November we predicted that its attenuated 4th wave was the end of the pandemic, and represented its transition to become endemic. Effectively immunising everyone who was not vaccinated. This prediction is on track and continues to be very significant
 

6.      The lock down strategy of Western governments will, in time, be viewed as a misguided response that equated to economic suicide. This is because lock down failed to balance the overall relatively low death rate of the majority versus the high magnitude of economic destruction. By focusing on the preservation of the older, less-productive population, governments have sacrificed the future for the younger population. The failure by Western governments to respond holistically illuminates both the predominant left-brained thinking process and the influence of the madness of collective behaviour. Governments should have resisted this with clear strategic leadership. This prediction is playing out, and will do increasingly as the economic situation worsens.
 

7.      There will be a sovereign debt crisis starting in the US, Italy and/or Spain. Bond yields will first fall as equities fall and then, as the panic builds, yields will rise considerably by the year's end. America will be at risk of a sovereign bond crisis and ultimate restructuring. Bond yields will rise not due to economic recovery, but to the risk over the issuance of sovereign debt. This prediction is on track as inflation and rates rise.
 

8.      Britain will increase its global influence. The vacuum created by the shrinkage of American global influence and the accelerated Chinese coercion of other nations could provide Britain with a massive opportunity to strengthen its global links with the Commonwealth and establish a new global trading network.This prediction is on track. Indeed, the AUKUS agreement and trade deals with Indo-Pacific nations is proof in point.
 

9.      Sterling will be the safe-haven currency. After an initial risk-off dip to 1.30/1.25 as the risk comes out of the markets and the Dollar gains some ground, Sterling will then appreciate, more than any other currency in the world during the next six months, rising to Cable 1.60 plus and against the Euro to 0.65. Exporters, be warned and prepared. This prediction is on track.

10.  Johnson will be removed from office  (Jan 2020) Unless he could manifest competent Leadership, as systems in expansion demand capable leadership This prediction is on track.

 

 

3.0  Q3 Market Predictions And Performance

3.1 Global Forecaster Methodology – Designed For Risk-Takers

We always seek to quantify the accuracy of our recommendations as they translate into market trade recommendations that are readily actionable by risk managers. We are pleased to report that the system we have used over the past two years has produced a very accurate representation of our market calls, both in the direction, size and magnitude of the move. This has allowed risk-takers to quickly assess the accuracy of our past predictions in any market or sector.

To remind you of our methodology behind each trade recommendation; each idea has a risk unit, defined from the entry point to the stop level, and a trade idea in one market can have a maximum of 200% which equates to 20 risk units at any one time. Trade recommendations can be either 33.3%, 66.6%, 100%, 133%, 166% or 200%. The 200% limit in a market can be put on all at once or in combinations of sub-trades. High-conviction trades require the time frames of short, medium and long to all be aligned. Notably, in Q2 2021, the conviction levels were very high due to the high and integrated signal strength associated with our Phase 3 Road Map.

Our strategy is to trade in alignment with long-term directions and trends and then find short-term entry points that translate into long-term time frames that produce tight risk rewards on entry as well as high multiple risk returns. The tight risk rewards on entry may mean that sometimes an entry point might require several attempts. A spreadsheet is available on request to explain all the trades that are displayed on the website and the summary tables below.

We then go a stage further, taking our trade recommendations and applying them to specific fund structures such as Top Macro, General Macro, Long Short and Commodity funds operated on behalf of clients. The history and performance of those funds are given below. 

 

3.2 Top 20  Performing Markets During The Past 24 Months

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Top 20 Q4 2021

This quarter has provided another remarkable performance in our nine-quarter history. Most notable of which the capturing of the collapse of the Turkish Lira with a 70x return to risk on a 100% long of Dollar Turkish making this one of the most profitable trades in our history and pacing it at the top of our best 20 performers. This trade was an indication that the EM world would suffer the most in the current economic and pandemic environment.

We have also been operating four exceptional 400% super max double-sized trade allocations (400%) strategies in line with what we see as a massive alpha-generating opportunity. All of which created very strong gains over the quarter.

A Safe Haven in Precious Metals detailed in  Arkent – Activating Our Long Precious Metals Strategy and Arkent Update 2 – Long Precious Metals Strategy in which our trade location at the low of the cycle was perfectly positioned and which by the quarter-end were producing very good returns as are the specific mining shares strategies.

A Sterling Safe Haven Strategy detailed in Arkent Scenario-Activating Our Sterling Safe Haven Strategy.

A Short Yen Strategy detailed in Arkent Scenario – Arkent Scenario – The Sun Sets On Japan

A Short Dollar Strategy based on our Arkent Road Map PHASE 3. Arkent Update; The Green Backs Next Moves

This quarter has once more demonstrated the profitability of our predictive systems across all the asset classes we cover. Most importantly, we believe we are set up for a hugely profitable Q1 2022 that follows the predictions made in our Arkent Road Map. 

 

 

3.3  Worst 10 Performing Markets During The Past 24 Months

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WORTST 10 q4 2021

The worst 10 in our universe of 80 markets that we cover, shows that our biggest failures have come in predicting the end of the US equity Super bubble. Although our losses have been minimised by consistently excellent trade entry points, they have been worsened compared to the last 24 months with the use of 400% trade sizes. We recognise that picking the precise timing of the high of this bubble is like a giant elephant hunting with a 22 rifle. However, our numerous successes in picking the highs of other summary bubbles over the past 24 months mean that we will continue the hunt. Meanwhile, the other markets in the table is our lower frequency markets and the losses are akin to one or two trades which is tremendously encouraging for our overall performance.

 

3.3 Specific Macro sector Performance.

3.3.1 Equity Markets

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HK index

The chart above shows the HK Index which demonstrates a continued bear trend that should accelerate in Q1 2022..

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Equity Q4

Equity Indices have been our worst Macro sector, as we hunted for the peak of the doomsday bubble. Notably, our saving grace has been in our trade locations when using super max sized 400% positions. Our biggest and most notable losses have been in the three strongest of the US indices the NASDAQ (moderate) and the SP500 and DJI which were expensive. Meanwhile, our losses in the weaker European and Asian markets were net-net neutral. We remain short into Q1 2022 expecting the axe to fall in January as phase 3 of our Arkent scenario engages as the doomsday bubble starts to implode.

Notably, All our long-short alpha capture funds performed exceptionally well in Q4 2 were in the top 10% and one in the top 15% of a sample size of some 250 to 390 competitors. This is very significant as a reversal in equity indexes are often preceded by individual shares falling precipitously as we witnessed. More details in our Long short performance appraisal.

 

3.3.2 FX and Crypto Markets

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Cable Q4

The chart above shows our trade capture of the cable which after a messy and complex correction back to the long term diagonal break out point, should now rally strongly  in Q1 2022. 

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bitcoin Q4

The chart above shows our trade capture of the bitcoin, which in our analysis has been trading a wave 4 correction. As such the rally into November 8th counted as a B wave with the correction which we attempted to short. However, the sentiment was exceptionally bullish as captured by investors polls (consistent with a B wave been termed as the suckers rally) and our disciplined attempts to sell the B wave at 62% and 78% of the A wave failed. However, we were later able to identify the hew high as a B wave irregular high and sell into it with a reasonably tight stop on a super short 400% position. Price action since has conformed to a C wave fall to a sub 30K target zone

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FX q4

 This quarter demonstrated solid returns across all our currency pairs in cable and dollar-yen. However, the end of the dollar index corrective rally produced an unexpected extension in price the meaning that we exited our long dollar positions early and rolled into a short position early which was expensive in the Dollar index and significantly less so in the Euro Dollar. Hoverer it was  profitable in dollar Swiss and the Yuan. Notably, our short commodity currency trades worked well in dollar Canada and dollar Aussi. Our Bitcoin and other cryptocurrency trade produced excellent returns this quarter. Our main currency strategies are detailed below

A Sterling Safe Haven Strategy detailed in Arkent Scenario-Activating Our Sterling Safe Haven Strategy.

A Short Yen Strategy detailed in Arkent Scenario – Arkent Scenario – The Sun Sets On Japan

A Short Dollar Strategy based on our Arkent Road Map PHASE 3. Arkent Update; The Green Backs Next Moves

 

 

3.3.3 Bond Markets

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Bonds Q4

This sector had a messy corrective quarter with little clear opportunity. The Bund's losses of 182.5 trade units were a result of a give-back from the previous quarters position which had accumulated  very large (record)  returns of 438 trade units

 

3.3.4 EM Markets

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Dollar Rand Q4

Dollar Rand is expected to follow the path of Dollar Turkey and has been rallying strongly, continuing a positive return profile as part of our long-term view that the country will soon be riven by, at worst, civil war and, at best, the succession of the Western Cape.

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EMBI Q4

The MSCI  reversed from its rally in Q 1 2021 and has since been coiling for its anticipated decline. Notably, the wave 5 extension target of 1464 was met precisely and is the same pattern that produced the 16740 targets on the NASDAQ

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EMBI Q4

EM equities and currencies moved in our favour as the risk-off trend has built momentum. Dollar Turkish was a massive winning trade and we expect our max sized positions to be very profitable in Q1 2022.

 

 

3.3.5 Commodities

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Gold Q4

Gold traded in a complex correction that finished in August 2021 and has been trading in the start of a major bull rally since then  We located our supermax long (400%) trades perfectly at the wave 2 low Allowing us to capture substantial returns and to expect Q1 to explode to the upside.

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NAT GAS

Our sell at the peak of The Natural Gas panic and continued short during the wave 2 correction demonstrates again how powerful our trading tools are.

Our commodity sector demonstrated diverse and very strong performance over Q4 with excellent returns in our A Safe Haven in Precious Metals Strategy detailed in  Arkent – Activating Our Long Precious Metals Strategy and Arkent Update 2 – Long Precious Metals Strategy in which our trade location at the low of the cycle was perfectly positioned and which by the quarter-end were producing very good returns as are the specific mining shares strategies

An outstanding trade of a short of Natural Gas Panic when it was surrounded by significant panic, and a similarly excellent trade in the agricultural soft sector of Corn completing a beautiful short trade in a wave two corrective decline.

 

 

4.0 Alpha Capture Funds And Their Performance

All our long-short alpha capture funds performed exceptionally well in Q4 2 were in the top 10% and one in the top 15% of a sample size of some 250 to 390 of competitors. More details in our Long short performance appraisal.

Arkent Macro Scenarios Q3 2021 Performance Appraisal – The Peak Of The Doomsday Bubble

SP500

The chart above shows the SP500 during the quarter with double-sized 400% double short excellent entry points that produced good returns, but that most importantly set up Q4 for a spectacular outcome. We have long maintained that once the strongest equity index commences its decline (like the SP500), then the Doomsday Bubble is very close to bursting.

Q3 2021 Performance Review Contents

  1. Global Forecaster introduction
  2. Our main Q3 geopolitical calls
  3. Q3 market predictions and performance
  4. Alpha Capture funds and their performance

 

1.0 Global Forecaster Introduction

Global Forecaster was set up in the summer of 2019 to inform and advise professional asset managers through troubled waters. During that year, there were obvious indicators that global markets were soon to peak (in February 2020) and collapse with the most grievous consequences. We have called this transition The Great Shift, as it is driven by the hegemonic challenge of China to America and the West.

We now have eight quarters of performance under our belt, and the results of our geopolitical predictions, market predictions and Alpha Capture fund performances have been exceptional. We believe the key to high returns and long-term success is based on:

  1. prescient market views generated within a systematic multi-timeframe and price modelling system
  2. good trade entry points with tight and structurally meaningful stops (entered with contrarian price modelling)
  3. appropriate position sizing
  4. risk management in accordance with the progression of a trend
  5. successful trade exit points.

These five points describe Global Forecaster’s risk methodology. By reading the below quarterly performance appraisal, you will have a better idea of how we apply our risk allocation methodology, as well as how we combine geopolitical predictions using various models from Breaking The Code Of History. All of these real-time predictions have been published on the Global Forecaster website and are available to our clients.

 

2.0 Our Main Q3 Geopolitical Calls

  1. The Doomsday Bubble is the name we have given this current asset price bubble. WE EXPECT THIS TO BE THE BIGGEST FINANCIAL COLLAPSE IN WESTERN HISTORY – because when it bursts, the damage that the asset price implosion will cause will be huge and very difficult for the Western economies to recover from. We have been tracking the bursting of the smaller bubbles as the ‘riders of the apocalypse’ very successfully this quarter. We expect that the delusional gap between economic reality and the stock market will now soon closeThe Phase 2 correction (of our Arkent Road Map) will end imminently and, following a sharp reversal sentiment, will swing to the other extreme during a six-month decline of up to 80% from the European stock markets and only a slightly smaller fall in America. As the reality gap closes, the social mood of populations will become markedly darker and there will be increasing social unrest due to economic stress on the lower and middle classes. These classes will find a just cause to express their collective frustration and anger. Additionally, as the pressure builds, there will be regime changes in countries with unstable economies (especially hydrocarbon economies). 
    This prediction is on track.
     
  2. Sino-Western polarisation will accelerate swiftly as the effects of the pandemic worsen.  
    This prediction is on track and continues to be very significant in its geopolitical impact.
     
  3. Inflation expectations. There will be a very significant asset price fall (the collapse of the Doomsday Bubble) triggered by input inflation at the peak of wave one of the commodity rally. The asset price collapse will then create a demand drop that pauses inflation for 6–12 months before it returns with a vengeance. Thus, the Western economies will be in varying states of stagflation through this period, initially increasing/a pause/massive stagflation.
    This prediction is on track.
     
  4. The global pandemic would last for 18–24 months (from March 2020) until a vaccine is applied globally en masse, or herd immunity is reached. Herd immunity is being bolstered through T cell immunity, which is not as of yet being tested. We estimate that with T cell immunity, the herd immunity levels are at least double the published figures. We are not confident that we will see an effective global vaccine roll-out until late next year (2022). 
    This prediction has been correct and although we expect COVID-19 to persist like a flu, its main impact has now abated.
     
  5. The lockdown strategy of Western governments will, in time, be viewed as a misguided response that equated to economic suicide. This is because lockdown failed to balance the overall relatively low death rate of the majority versus the high magnitude of economic destruction. By focusing on the preservation of the older, less-productive population, governments have sacrificed the future for the younger population. The failure by Western governments to respond holistically illuminates both the predominant left-brained thinking process and the influence of the madness of collective behaviour. Governments should have resisted this with a clear strategic leadership. 
    This prediction is playing out, and will do increasingly as the economic situation worsens.
     
  6. There will be a sovereign debt crisis starting in the US, Italy and/or Spain. Bond yields will first fall as equities fall and then, as the panic builds, yields will rise considerably by the year's end. America will be at risk of a sovereign bond crisis and ultimate restructuring. Bond yields will rise not due to economic recovery, but to the risk over issuance of sovereign debt. 
    This prediction is on track as inflation and rates rise.
     
  7. The EU will fracture from its current structure and devolve to national levels as the sovereign debt crisis unfolds later in 2021. 
    This prediction is still to play out, but Germany is failing and France flailing around to cover up its weakness.

     
  8. Brexit will happen on terms that benefit the UK as the EU’s position weakens. Britain will involve Article 16 over the Northern Ireland protocol. 
    This prediction proved correct.
     
  9. Britain will increase its global influence. The vacuum created by the shrinkage of American global influence and the accelerated Chinese coercion of other nations could provide Britain with a massive opportunity to strengthen its global links with the Commonwealth and establish a new global trading network.
    This prediction is on track. Indeed, the AUKUS agreement and trade deals with Indo-Pacific nations is proof in point.
     
  10. Sterling will be the safe haven currency. After an initial risk-off dip to 1.30/1.25 as the risk comes out of the markets and the Dollar gains some ground, Sterling will then appreciate, more than any other currency in the world during the next six months, rising to Cable 1.60 plus and against the Euro to 0.65. Exporters, be warned and prepared. 
    This prediction is on track.
     
  11. There will be social unrest in Russia. Resultantly, there is a high probability that Putin will be displaced. Such an eventuality would provide the strategic opportunity to entice Russia back into the Western fold. 
    This prediction has started to unfold, and we expect the process to accelerate as the commodity markets and Russian GDP drops in 2021. So far, Putin has suppressed any unrest; however, the collapse in the Doomsday Bubble and fall in commodities will provide one last moment of vulnerability to Putin in the next 6–9 months.

 

3.0  Q3 Market Predictions And Performance

3.1 Global Forecaster Methodology – Designed For Risk-Takers

We always seek to quantify the accuracy of our recommendations as they translate into market trade recommendations that are readily actionable by risk managers. We are pleased to report that the system we have used over the past two years has produced a very accurate representation of our market calls, both in the direction, size and magnitude of the move. This has allowed risk-takers to quickly assess the accuracy of our past predictions in any market or sector.

To remind you of our methodology behind each trade recommendation; each idea has a risk unit, defined from the entry point to the stop level, and a trade idea in one market can have a maximum of 200% which equates to 20 risk units at any one time. Trade recommendations can be either 33.3%, 66.6%, 100%, 133%, 166% or 200%. The 200% limit in a market can be put on all at once or in combinations of sub-trades. High-conviction trades require the timeframes of short, medium and long to all be aligned. Notably, in Q2 2021, the conviction levels were very high due to the high and integrated signal strength associated with our Phase 3 Road Map.

Our strategy is to trade in alignment with long-term directions and trends and then find short-term entry points that translate into long-term timeframes that produce tight risk rewards on entry as well as high multiple risk returns. The tight risk rewards on entry may mean that an entry point needs to be attempted several times. A spreadsheet is available on request to explain all the trades that are displayed on the website and the summary tables below.

We then go a stage further, taking our trade recommendations and applying them to specific fund structures such as Top Macro, General Macro, Long Short and Commodity funds operated on behalf of clients. The history and performance of those funds are given below. 

 

3.2 Top-Performing Markets During The Past 21 Months

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top 15 Q321

This quarter has been one of the most remarkable performances in our eight-quarter history. Our recommendations have been in line with our Phase 3 Arkent Scenario Road Map and we have executed a multitude of outstanding short-term entry points across all sectors. These trades have then extended to medium-term timeframes and multiple returns.

Top of the quarter's performance list was Bunds followed by US T Notes, as we captured first the corrective rally in prices from bottom to top and then reversed our position at the top and captured the impulsive decline. Silver and Palladium were the next best performers over the quarter, with our EURO STOXX 50 and SP500 shorts following up. Notably, the SP500 carried an exceptional 400% double-sized trade allocation to emphasise the once-in-a-lifetime importance of the unfolding high. Full details can be found in Double Shotting The High Of The US Equity Markets. Meanwhile, all our currency views were on track with the Dollar Index leading the currency returns.

This quarter has once more demonstrated the profitability of our predictive systems across all the asset classes we cover. Most importantly, we believe we are set up for a hugely profitable Q4 that follows the predictions made in our Arkent Road Map. 

 

3.3 General Appraisal Of Q2 Performance

Q3 was a quarter dominated by our strategy of picking the reversal point of the Doomsday Bubble across all the risk assets. We started the quarter believing that the bubble was on its last legs and was running out of momentum, consistent with our Arkent Phase 3 Road Map. We were able to pick our sell locations, setting max size positions with tight stops. To our satisfaction, during both Q2 and Q3, we have demonstrated a very clear and consistent skill of picking blow-off highs in markets that were in acute bubble dynamics; Bitcoin, lumber, soya and iron ore being some of the best macro examples. This gave us confidence concerning picking the reversal and equity highs in Q3.

 

3.3.1 Equity Markets

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eurostoxx Q3

The chart above shows the EURO STOXX 50 chart during Q3 with a max-sized 200% short that had an excellent entry point and which has since produced encouraging returns. But that, most importantly, we are now set up in Q4 for a spectacular outcome as we expect the Doomsday Bubble to burst in the worst financial crash since 1929.

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EQ Q321

This quarter demonstrated positive returns in all our short equity strategies, with the best results demonstrated in the SP500 and EURO STOXX 50. Our max short positions should bear bountiful fruit in Q4, judging by the price action across the equity index complex. Note also the preservation of capital from the FTSE and EURO STOXX 50 profits after the Feb–March 2020 decline, despite trading from the short side in the corrective rally. This is a clear demonstration of our ratchet trade management programme, using precise short-term entry points to gain access to larger longer-term moves.

 

3.3.2 FX Markets

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index

The chart above shows our trade capture of the Dollar Index unfolding in a C wave rally.  

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fx q321

This quarter demonstrated solid returns across all our currency pairs. We expect that we will see continued risk-off Dollar purchasing in the first portion of Q4.

 

3.3.3 Bond Markets

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Bonds and Bunds

US T Notes and Bunds have accurately followed our predictions and very specific trade recommendations with the very high returns associated with tight entry points and 10x moves on both the T Notes and Bund's rally and subsequent decline this quarter. Bond markets have been following our Phase 3 Road Map in our Arkent Road Map perfectly and we are now set up for the biggest bear move in bonds for over two decades. The reversal of positions from long to short took place in early August 2021.
 

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bOND q321

We started the quarter 200% bullish Bunds and bonds in what we viewed as the wave two bounce in prices. We then reversed and moved to a short 200% position at the highs with super-tight rewards ready for the main bear trend to resume. The results in Bunds were exceptional at 449 trade units.

 

3.3.4 EM Markets

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Rand

Dollar Rand has been rallying strongly, continuing a positive return profile as part of our long-term view that the country will soon be riven by, at worst, a civil war and, at best, the succession of the Western Cape.

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MSCI

The MSCI has shown a similar topping pattern to the Western Equity Indexes.

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em q3

EM equities and currencies started to move as the risk-off trend built momentum. We expect our max positions to be very profitable in Q4 2021.

 

3.3.5 Commodities

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SilverQ3

Silver traded in a complex correction that finished at the end of the quarter. Allowing us to capture substantial returns.

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Iron Ore

We captured iron ore’s top to bottom bursting its bubble, signalling in advance a global fall in demand.

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cOM q321

Silver, Platinum and Palladium provided our best returns as our short trades reached the termination and the point of profit-taking. Iron ore, although only 46-unit trade return, which equates to 4x the initial risk, was an outstanding advanced call on demand reduction in China, feeding back into our macro scenario. We made continued gains in soya and corn and the industrial metals also showed profitability.

The only area that produced losses was the energy sector, whose wave one extended further than we expected in Q3.

 

4.0 Alpha Capture Funds And Their Performance

We performed well in the one Alpha Capture platform we operate, with a 4/97 rank.

 

ARKENT SCENARIO 2021 Q2 PERFORMANCE APPRAISAL

Bitcoin AK

Bitcoin was Our trade of the quarter. Having run long positions for 60% of the bubbles rally from 6000, to 30,000 out of the whole move to 64,000, we then identified the final high and positioned of a maximum size short @62,000 with a tight stop to makeover 11X returns and capturing 226 trading Units.... so far!

Contents of this Q2 2021 Performance Review

  1. Global Forecaster Introduction.
  2. The main Q2 geopolitical calls.
  3. The market predictions and performance.
  4. Funds and their performance.

 

1.0 Global Forecaster Introduction

Global Forecaster was set up in the summer of 2019 to inform and advise professional asset managers through troubled waters. During this year, there were obvious indicators that global markets were soon to peak in February 2020 and collapse with the most grievous consequences. We have called this transition The Great Shift, as it is driven by the hegemonic challenge of China to America and the West.

With seven quarters of performance under our belt, the results of our geopolitical predictions, market predictions, and fund performances have been very encouraging indeed. We believe the key to high returns and long term success is based on:

  1. Prescient market views generated with a systematic multi-timeframe and price modelling system.
  2. Good trade entry points with tight and structurally meaningful stops (entered with contrarian price modelling).
  3. Appropriate position sizing.
  4. Risk management in accordance with trends.
  5. Successful trade exit points.

These five points describe Global Forecaster’s risk methodology. By reading the below quarterly performance appraisal you will have a better idea of how we apply our risk allocation methodology, as well as how we combine geopolitical predictions using various models from Breaking The Code of History. All of these real-time predictions have been published on the Global Forecaster site and have been available to our clients.

 

2.0 The Main Q2 Geopolitical Calls Made at The Beginning of Q2)

  1. The Doomsday Bubble-Is the name we have given this current asset price bubble. Because when it bursts the damage that the asset price implosion will cause will be huge and very difficult for the Western economies to recover from. We have been tracking the bursting of the smaller bubbles as the riders of the apocalypse very successfully this quarter. We expect that the delusional gap between economic reality and the stock market will now soon closeThe Phase 2 correction (of our Arkent Road Map ) will end imminently and, following a sharp reversal sentiment, will swing to the other extreme during a six-month decline of up to 80% from the European stock markets and only a slightly smaller fall in America. As the reality gap closes, the social mood of populations will become markedly darker and there will be increasing social unrest due to economic stress on the lower and middle classes. These classes will find a just cause to express their collective frustration and anger. Additionally, as the pressure builds there will be regime changes in countries with unstable economies (especially hydrocarbon economies).  This prediction is on track
  2. Sino-Western polarisation will accelerate swiftly as the effects of the pandemic worsen.  This prediction is on track and continues to be very significant in its geopolitical impact.
  3. Inflation Expectations There will be very significant asset price deflation well before inflation sustainably impacts profitability through shares, commodities and the property market. This prediction is on track.
  4. The Global Pandemic will continue for 18-24 months (from March 2020) until a vaccine is applied globally en mass, or herd immunity is reached. Herd immunity is being bolstered through T cell immunity which is not as of yet being tested. We estimate that with T cell immunity the herd immunity levels are at least double the published figures. We are not confident that we will see an effective global vaccine role out until late next year (2022). This prediction is on track
    1. There will be secondary and tertiary waves.  This prediction is on track as attested by the third wave driven by the Delta Variant.
    2. Governments will have to become more effective at constraining the pandemic, locating new virulent strains and keeping the economy operating. This is happening in the East at present, but not in the West, although it will do increasingly. This prediction is on track.
    3. Testing (including for new strains) and tracking must be greatly enhancedThis prediction proved correct. 
    4. A globally coordinated response to the pandemic could and should be led by Britain. This prediction is on track.
    5. There needs to be more focus on the inevitable mutations of the virus into a multi-strained simultaneous pandemic. This prediction is on track.
    6. In Western societies,  could derive long-term health benefits, with new technologies to kills viruses and eradicates their associated diseases. But also as populations are in future encouraged to take self-responsibility for their health. This prediction is on track but early stage
  5. The lockdown strategy of Western governments will in time be viewed as a misguided response that equated to economic suicide. This is because lockdown failed to balance the overall relatively low death rate of the majority versus the high magnitude of economic destruction. By focussing on the preservation of the older, less productive population, governments have sacrificed the future for the younger population. The failure by Western governments to respond holistically illuminates both the predominant left-brained thinking process and the influence of the madness of collective behaviour. Governments should have resisted this with clear strategic leadership. This prediction is still to play out
  6. There will be a Sovereign debt crisis starting in the US, Italy and/or Spain Bond yields will first fall as equities fall, and then as the panic builds yields will rise considerably by the year's end. America will be at risk of a sovereign bond crisis and ultimate restructuring. Bond yields will rise not due to economic recovery, but due to the risk over issuance of sovereign debt. This prediction is still to play out.
  7. The EU will fracture from its current structure, and devolve to national levels as the Sovereign debt crisis unfolds later in 2021. This prediction is still to play out.
  8. Brexit will happen on terms that benefit the UK as the EU’s position weakensThis prediction proved correct over the sausage war.
  9. Britain will increase its relative global influence as the Pandemic progresses. The vacuum created by the shrinkage of American global influence and the accelerated Chinese coercion of other nations could provide Britain with a massive opportunity to strengthen its global links with the Commonwealth and establish a new global trading network. Britain will hold the upper hand in the Brexit negotiations. This prediction is on track. After an initial risk-off dip to 1.30/1.25, before Sterling will then appreciates, more than any other currency in the world during the next 6 months rising to Cable 1.60 plus and against the Euro to 0.65. Exporters, be warned and prepared. This prediction is on track
  10. There will be social unrest in Russia. Resultantly, there is a high probability that Putin will be displaced. Such an eventuality would provide the strategic opportunity to entice Russia back into the Western fold.  This prediction has started to unfold, and we expect the process to accelerate as the commodity markets and Russian GDP drops over the rest of 2021.

 

3.0 The Q3 Market Predictions

3.1 GF Methodology-Designed for Risk Takers

We always seek to quantify the accuracy of our recommendations as they translate into market trade recommendations that are readily actionably by risk managers. We are pleased to report that the system we use over the past two years has produced a very accurate representation of our market calls, both in the direction, size, and magnitude of the move. Allowing risk-takers, to quickly assess the accuracy of our past predictions in any market or sector.

To remind you of our methodology behind each trade recommendation; each idea has a risk unit, defined from the entry point to the stop level, and a trade idea in one market can have a maximum of 200% which equates to 20 risk units at any one time. Trade recommendations can be either 33.3%, 66.6% 100%, 133% 1665 OR 200%. The 200% limit in a market can be put on all at once or in combinations of  sub-trades. High conviction trades require the time frames of short, medium, and long to all be aligned. Notably, in 2021 Q2 the conviction levels were very high due to the high and integrated signal strength associated with my Phase 3 roadmap.

Our trading strategy is to trade in alignment with long-term directions and trends and then find short-term entry points that translate into long-term time frames that produce tight risk rewards on entry as well as high multiple risk returns. The tight risk rewards on entry may mean that an entry point needs to be attempted several times. A spreadsheet is available on request to explain all the trades which are displayed on the site and the summary tables below.

We then go a stage further, taking my trade recommendations and applying them to specific fund structures such as Top Macro, General Macro, Long Short, and Commodity funds operated on behalf of clients. The history and performance of those funds is given below. 

 

3.2 Top Performing Markets During the Past 21 Months

Image
Q2 Top 15

The FTSE remains on top of teh top 15 by some margin, as our strategy of well-positioned maximum shorts over 5 quarters has broken even, keeping all the gains captured from the February to March decline. Whilst currently being 200% maximum short from the highs having entered the position in Q2 2021. The FTSE demonstrated the efficacy of our ratchet trading strategy, with the loses being small when it goes against our views but with  big profits when we are correct.

In second and third place on the top 15 table, were great gains for Gold, Platinum, and to a lesser extent silver. All three’s metal's declines were linked to the risk-off dollar rally which also produced solid gains across our long dollar trades, Dollar Canada being our best FX performer.

Bitcoin was the star performer of Q2 with the highest quarterly return, which moved it up to 5th place on the all star table.

Notably, all the European stock indices made only moderate positive to neutral gains. In contrast to the US and in particular the NASDA and SP500 which were the strongest of equity markets and as a result were our worst performers in the equities sector.

Meanwhile, we had some great successes locating the reversals in many commodity markets. The most notable being lumber, whose fall has now signalled the end of the US housing Bubble, followed by a dramatic Soya spike and reversal. However, Oil proved to be a very determined bull and cost us 137 trading units on maximum short positions located too early.

This quarter has once more demonstrated a clear pattern as to how our predictive systems work across all the asset classes we cover. This is conditional of course on directional movement which has a cyclicity of fallow periods and fertile periods. The key to our system is avoiding the fallow periods that eat up energy and capital with no return, focusing instead on the fertile periods in sectors with dynamic price moves. This is key to consistent and high portfolio returns.

 

3.3 General Appraisal of Q2 Performance

Q2 Was a quarter dominated by our strategy of picking the Reversal to the massive risk on Bubble, that we believed was running out of momentum. Our view was that the Doomsday Bubble was bursting, and we were able to pick our sell locations setting max size positions in such a way that in all but The NASDAQ, SP500, and in Oil were successful which then made positive returns across the different sectors. In cases like precious metals and Bitcoin and lumber and soya we had an exceptional quarter and are now set up with a maximum position in every asset to profit from a major risk-off move in Q3.

During This quarter we demonstrated a very clear and consistent skill of picking blow-off highs in markets that were in acute bubble dynamics. Bitcoin, Lumber, and Soya being the best examples. Giving us confidence with respect to the picking the reversal and equity highs, which look to be unfolding as we write.

 

3.3.1 Equity Markets

Image
eurostoxx Q2

The Above Chart Shows the Eurostoxx 50 trading during the quarter with excellent entry points that produced marginally positive returns in this leading edge of the bubble index

Image
Q2 Equities

This quarter we extended our coverage to Asian Indices and included the Vix  (SP500) and the Euro Vix (Eiro Stoxx 50) and the FTSE 350 Travel and Leisure index. Except for the US equity markets, our calls in Europe and Asia on average were net break-even. We noted the weakness in China as a leading indicator of a wave of bearishness moving east. Our worst losses in any quarter in any market since we stated took place in the NASDAQ this quarter, where several attempts at max-sized 200% shorts blew up in our face. However, our large short position should bear bountiful fruit in Q3, judging by the price action across the equity index complex.

 

3.3.2 FX Markets

Image
can AK

The above chart shows the Dollar Canada and the quarter's excellent trade location for the  major reversal, linked to the commodity cycle as well as a dollar risk-off move

Image
Q2 Currency

This quarter we extended our coverage to include the crypto 10 index. Our FX strategy was one of being medium-term long the Dollar for a correction, which worked well in the European Dollar pairs. Dollar Aussie and Canada became interesting as the commodity cycle turned lower. On the negative side Dollar Yen is still a challenging pattern. Notably, bitcoin produced outstanding returns for the quarter.

 

3.3.3 Bond markets

Image
Bunds AK

Bunds Provided some solid returns, after a good entry point near the lows was allowed to run in what we believe is a wave 2 bounce.

Image
Q2 Bonds

We started the quarter bearish Bonds in what we viewed as the 5th wave of a larger degree wave 1. We moved to a long position too early but stayed with the strategy and ultimately bought the largest long position at the very lows; in a contrarian trade as the market was spooked by the inflation meme which creates a very strong negative sentiment in bonds as befits the 5th wave. Our analysis that some commodities had reversed after completing their wave 1, gave us more signals that our max 200% long positions were correct. Indeed for the last month bond prices have rallied against large shorts which have been rolled up. Bunds produced better returns than T Notes.

 

3.3.4 EM Markets

 

Image
Turk Ak

Dollar Turkish has been rallying strongly continuing a positive return profile

Image
Q2 EM

With the exception of the Dollar Turkish, the quarter was unremarkable in this sector. However, we expect the lateral correction to give way to major risk-off moves in Q3 and are well-positioned to take advantage of such a move.

 

3.3.5 Commodities

Image
Gold AK

Gold traded in a Complex correction, with the rally into $1905 being difficult to understand, until the very end. When it provided a tight entry point with maximum position size.

Image
Lumber AK

Lumber was the second major bubble that we called correctly in Q2, signalling the end of the US housing Bubble.

Image
Soya AK

Soya was not a bubble but rather the vigorous end of a wave 1 of a 5 year bull market. We captured the high with max size a dn tight entry risk.

Image
Q2 Commodities

This Commodity sector produced some very good and broad returns except for Oil which like the NASDAQ proved tough to locate a short position in. Gold Platinum and Silver made solid returns in a messy sideways trading pattern. Whilst the other commodities like soya produced excellent returns as we located our shorts too early before the reversals finally took place. Oil and copper were our best shorts. Lumber was a new addition and one we are very pleased with both as stand alone market, but also to warn of the impending US house bubble collapse, as part of the riders of the apocalypse thesis before the equity bubble bursts. We are set up for a major commodity decline to unfold from here.

 

 

Arkent Scenario 2021 Q1 Performance Appraisal

Turkish Lira

The above chart in Turkish Lira shows the capture of 122 trading units during the rally so far. Note that EM currencies are on the leading edge of the Bubbles collapse.

 Contents of this Q1 2021 Review

  1. Introduction.
  2. The main geopolitical calls.
  3. The market predictions and performance.
  4. Funds and their performance.

 

1.0 Global Forecaster Introduction

Global Forecaster was set up in the summer of 2019 to inform and advise professional asset managers through troubled waters. During this year, there were obvious indicators that global markets were soon to peak in February 2020 and collapse with the most grievous consequences. I have called this transition The Great Shift as it is driven by the hegemonic challenge of China to America and the West.

With six quarters of performance under our belt, the results of our geopolitical predictions, market predictions, and fund performances have been very pleasing. We believe the key to high returns and long term success is based on:

  1. Prescient market views generated with a systematic multi-timeframe and price modelling system.
  2. Good trade entry points with tight and structurally meaningful stops (entered with contrarian price modelling).
  3. Appropriate position sizing.
  4. Risk management in accordance with trends.
  5. Successful trade exit points.

These five points describe Global Forecaster’s risk methodology.By reading the below quarterly performance appraisal you will have a better idea of how we apply my risk allocation methodology as well as how we combine geopolitical predictions using various models from Breaking The Code of History. All of these real-time predictions have been published on the Global Forecaster site. We then go a stage further and apply these trades to different fund mandates. Track records are given below.

 

2.0 The Main Q1 Geopolitical Calls

  1. Sino-Western polarisation will accelerate swiftly as the effects of the pandemic worsen.  This prediction is on track and continues to be very significant in it geopolitical impact.
  2. The delusional gap between economic reality and the stock market will close. The Phase 2 correction will end imminently and, following a sharp reversal sentiment, will swing to the other extreme during a six month decline of up to 80% from the February highs in European stock markets and only a slightly smaller fall in America. As the reality gap closes, the social mood of populations will become markedly darker and there will be increasing social unrest due to economic stress on the lower and middle classes. These classes will find a just cause to express their collective frustration and anger. Additionally, as the pressure builds there will be regime changes in countries with unstable economies (especially hydrocarbon economies).  This prediction is still to play out, with the bubbles collapse.
  3. There will be very significant asset price deflation well before inflation becomes noticeable in shares, commodities and the property market. Gold and silver will be a major store of value and will appreciate 200%+. This prediction is still to play out and we have been short gold in the correction that should allow good buying levels.
  4. The Pandemic will continue for 18-24 months until a vaccine is found or herd immunity is reached. Herd immunity is being bolstered through T cell immunity which is not as of yet tested. We estimate that with T cell immunity the herd immunity levels are at least double the published figures. We am not confident that we will see an effective vaccine role out until next year (2021). This prediction is on track.
    1. There will be secondary and tertiary waves.  This prediction is on track.
    2. Governments will have to become more effective at constraining the pandemic, locating new virulent strains and keeping the economy operating. This is happening in the East at present, but not in the West. This prediction is on track.
    3. Testing (including for new strains) and tracking must be greatly enhanced. This prediction proved correct. 
    4. A global response to the pandemic could and should be led by Britain. This prediction is on track.
    5. There needs to be more focus on the inevitable mutations of the virus into a multi-strained simultaneous pandemic. This prediction is on track.
    6. In Western societies, there could be long-term health benefits as populations are encouraged to take self-responsibility for their health. This prediction is on track.
  5. The lockdown strategy of Western governments will in time be viewed as a misguided response that equated to economic suicide. This is because lockdown failed to balance the overall relatively low death rate of the majority versus the high magnitude of economic destruction. By focussing on the preservation of the older, less productive population, governments have sacrificed the future for the younger population. The failure by Western governments to respond holistically illuminates both the predominant left-brained thinking process and the influence of the madness of collective behaviour. Governments should have resisted this with clear strategic leadership. This prediction is still to play out
  6. There will be a sovereign debt crisis starting in the US, Italy and/or Spain. The German Supreme Court will do all they can to resist the ECBs support of the Italian bond market. Bond yields will rise considerably by the years end. America will also be at risk of a sovereign bond crisis and ultimate restructuring. Bond yields will rise not due to economic recovery, but due to the risk of holding debt. This prediction is still to play out.
  7. The EU will fracture from its current structure and devolve to national levels. This will be triggered in the later stages of Brexit. Moreover, Brexit will happen on terms that benefit the UK as the EU’s position weakens. This prediction proved correct. The vacuum created by the shrinkage of American global influence and the accelerated Chinese coercion of other nations could provide Britain with a massive opportunity to strengthen its global links with the Commonwealth and establish a new global trading network. Britain will hold the upper hand in the Brexit negotiations. This prediction is on track.Sterling will appreciate more than any other currency in the world during the next 6 months rising to Cable 1.60 plus and against the Euro to 0.65. Exporters, be warned and prepared. This prediction is on track, although we are in a corrective phase to 1.30 before the next advance.
  8. There will be social unrest in Russia. Resultantly, there is a high probability that Putin will be displaced. Such an eventuality would provide the strategic opportunity to entice Russia back into the Western fold.  This prediction is still to play out.

 

3.0 The Q3 Market Predictions

3.1 GF Methodology-Designed for Risk Takers

I was a macro asset manager for over 35 years. I know there is a big difference between having an idea and translating it into profit. My Arkent and Market Analysis Services are designed to do just that.

Over the past 12 months, Global Forecaster has evolved its risk system into the one described below. The trade performance tables represent this standardised system.

To remind you of how it works, each idea has a risk unit, defined from the entry point to the stop level, and a trade idea in one market can have a maximum of 100% which equates to 10 risk units at any one time. Trade recommendations can be either 33.3%, 66.6% or 100%. The 100% limit in a market can be put on all at once or in combinations of 33% and 66% sub-trades. For example, T12a, T12b and T12c would be three 33% trades in one market and for one idea. High conviction trades require the time frames of short, medium, and long to all be aligned. Notably, in 2020 Q3 the conviction levels were very high due to the high and integrated signal strength associated with my Phase 3 roadmap.

My trading strategy is to trade in alignment with long-term directions and trends and then find short-term entry points that translate into long-term time frames that produce tight risk rewards on entry as well as high multiple risk returns. The tight risk rewards on entry may mean that an entry point needs to be attempted several times. A spreadsheet is available on request to explain all the trades which are displayed on the site and the summary tables below.

We then go a stage further, taking my trade recommendations and applying them to specific fund structures such as Top Macro, General Macro, Long Short, and Commodity funds operated on behalf of clients. The history and performance of those funds is given below. 

 

3.2 Top Performing Markets Over the Past 12 Months

Image
top 13

Key changes; Our top 13 table shows no movement at the top with the FTSE remaining in the No1 position. However Silver is up from 4th to second after a solid quarter, with gold stationery despite some solid returns. The other main movers have been dollar pairs. The Dollar index up from 8 to 6 and Dollar Swiss up shooting into 8th and Dollar Turkey shooting into 10th. Meanwhile, Spain and the Sp500 have dropped out of the table.

How the table works As an example of how the Global Forecaster risk system works, we have included the above  table of our 13 top-performing markets. Take the FTSE as an example where 763.2 risk units were generated over 12 months. This equates to a 76x return on a 100% trade of 10 units. In reality,76x is a massive number. Even a 13x multiple represents a very significant return at the bottom of the table.

Another clear pattern that this table demonstrates is how our predictive systems work in all the asset classes we cover. This is conditional of course on directional movement which has a cyclicity of fallow periods and fertile periods. The key to this system is avoiding the fallow periods that eat up energy and capital with no return, focusing instead on the fertile periods in sectors. This is key to consistent overall portfolio generation.

 

3.3 General Appraisal of Q1 Performance

Q1 was a quarter of mixed parts, but overall produced excellent returns. Our view is that the Bubbles of Bubbles is bursting, saw confirming evidence in the leading edge of the bubble indices and stocks like the NASDAQ and Tesla all reversing. However, the trailing edge of the bubble benefited from a value switch and continued to make a mixture of marginal gains  and new highs. Within this environment, the excellent positioning of our trade entry points at peaks made some gains in the weakest markets like the NASDAQ and minimised capital loss in the stronger equity markets. Meanwhile, our Dollar calls and trades were all very successful, as were our Sterling cross trades. The linkage between the Dollar and Gold and Silver also meant that we had a good quarter in precious metals (43 pts in gold and 56 in silver). Our Emerging markets recommendations in the currencies had strong returns with Turkish Lira the top-performing market of the quarter (122 pts) as did the shorts in emerging equity indexes. In commodities, our short positions endured losses initially and came good as the markets finally peaked and reversed, oil being our best performer.

3.3.1 Equity Markets

Image
nasdaq

The Above Chart Shows the NASDAQ trading during the quarter and some excellent entry points that produced positive returns in this leading edge of the bubble index

 

Image
equity markets

Except for the NASDAQ and FTSE our calls on equities were negative this quarter. Our strategy of selling the weakest stock markets in preference to the strongest proved once more to be a successful trading adage. Whilst the largest loss in Eurostosxx, was due to the 200% short position at the end of the month, based on a potential diagonal triangle pattern which proved incorrect.

 

3.3.2 FX Markets

Image
Dollar Swiss

The above chart shows the Dollar Swiss and the quarter's excellent trade locations within the bullish trend

Image
Currecny markets

Our strategy was one of being medium-term long the Dollar for a correction, which worked well in the European Dollar pairs.As did our long sterling Crosses. Dollar Aussie became interesting as the commodity cycle turned lower. On the negative side Dollar, Yen is still a challenging pattern, and bitcoin did not reverse quite where we expected it to do so, but still looks set to fall to 30,000.

3.3.3 Bond markets

Image
Bonds

We started the quarter bullish expecting one more new high on bonds, but after key levels were breached switched our view to bearish bonds  in March, recouping some of our losses.

 

3.3.4 EM Markets

Image
EMs

We made nice incremental gains across this sector in both EM currencies and equity indexes, with Dollar Turkey returning a bumper quarter. This sector has been leading the risk off/Bubble collapse.

 

3.3.5 Commodities

Image
Commodities

Gold and Silver made solid returns in a messy sideways trading pattern. Whilst the other commodities gave small returns as we located our shorts too early before the reversals finally took place. Oil and copper were our best shorts.

 

4.0 Alpha Capture Funds Performance

Global Forecaster operates four fund portfolios for clients by applying GF trade recommendations.

 

4.1 Long Short (Square point)

A long-short fund of $200m with a max of 50 equity positions of $4m. A loss of $11,935,896 equates to a 5.9% loss.

Image
square point equities

 

This fund suffered from the equity market rally in which our key short on oil and banks flew in our face in teh value switch 

4.2 Commodity (Square Point) A Commodity Fund

Image
Squpt commodities

 

There we failed to effectively represent or  trade recommendations in this portfolio.

 

4.3 Top Macro (Client X)

A concentrated best of our macro ideas with zero leverage, which in the quarter actually represented our best performing trade recommendations, in a non leveraged portfolio.

Its key positions have been: Short WTI, gold silver NASDAQ FTSE, and Eurostoxx. 

The net loss over the quarter was 0.4% with the previous net return of 12%.on 8 months.

 

4.4 General Macro (Client Y)

Contains 80% of all the trades generated from equity indices, FX, bonds and commodities.

The returns over this quarter were negative ($3,008,594).

 

Arkent Scenerio 2020 Q4 Performance Appraisal

Bitcoin

The above chart in Bitcoin shows both the capture of the rally and the missed opportunity of the impulsive rally above 20,000

 

Contents of this Q3 Review

  1. Introduction.
  2. The main geopolitical calls.
  3. The market predictions and performance.
  4. Funds and their performance.

 

1.0 Global Forecaster Introduction

Global Forecaster was set up in the summer of 2019 to inform and advise professional asset managers through troubled waters. During this year, there were obvious indicators that global markets were soon to peak in February 2020 and collapse with the most grievous consequences. I have called this transition The Great Shift as it is driven by the hegemonic challenge of China to America and the West.

With one year of performance under our belt, the results of our geopolitical predictions, market predictions and fund performances have been very pleasing. We believe the key to high returns and long term success is based on:

  1. Prescient market views generated with a systematic multi-timeframe and price modelling system.
  2. Good trade entry points with tight and structurally meaningful stops (entered with contrarian price modelling).
  3. Appropriate position sizing.
  4. Risk management in accordance with trends.
  5. Successful trade exit points.

These five points describe Global Forecaster’s risk methodology.

By reading the below quarterly performance appraisal you will have a better idea of how we apply my risk allocation methodology as well as how we combine geopolitical predictions using various models from Breaking The Code of History. All of these real-time predictions have been published on the Global Forecaster site. We then go a stage further and apply these trades to different fund mandates. Track records are given below.

 

2.0 The Main Q3 Geopolitical Calls

  1. Biden would win the election by a considerable marginContextually, this call was made back in January when Trump's re-election seemed inevitable and when no one was predicting Biden's victory. We based this call on the need of the American electorate for wealth distribution to keep them afloat. This prediction proved correct.
  2. Sino-Western polarisation will accelerate swiftly as the effects of the pandemic worsen. Ultimately, China will be found guilty in Western courts and damages against the state will result in expropriations on Western soil. China will drive an accelerated arms race using its idle industrial capacity to build ships, missiles, planes, armoured vehicles and an amphibious capability. Faced with the overwhelming polarisation against China, President Xi could well choose the path of accelerated aggression. Taiwan is the most probable flashpoint. This is the biggest geopolitical shift of them all and it is unfolding at the rate I expected. Our estimate is 99% of all senior political and business leaders are underestimating this shift and its impact. Recent Murrinations give details of Xi’s future path for China as an internally fuelled consumer society that becomes fully militarised like Germany in 1939, which is effectively the road to war in 2025. This prediction is on track.
  3. The delusional gap between economic reality and the stock market will close. The Phase 2 correction will end imminently and, following a sharp reversal sentiment, will swing to the other extreme during a six month decline of up to 80% from the February highs in European stock markets and only a slightly smaller fall in America. As the reality gap closes, the social mood of populations will become markedly darker and there will be increasing social unrest due to economic stress on the lower and middle classes. These classes will find a just cause to express their collective frustration and anger. Additionally, as the pressure builds there will be regime changes in countries with unstable economies (especially hydrocarbon economies). This prediction has still to unfold.
  4. There will be very significant asset price deflation well before inflation becomes noticeable in shares, commodities and the property market. Gold and silver will be a major store of value and will appreciate 200%+. Expect this to unfold in the autumn as unemployment numbers increase. This prediction has still to unfold.
  5. The Pandemic will continue for 18-24 months until a vaccine is found or herd immunity is reached. Herd immunity is being bolstered through T cell immunity which is not as of yet tested. I estimate that with T cell immunity the herd immunity levels are at least double the published figures. I am not confident that we will see an effective vaccine until next year.
    1. There will be secondary and tertiary waves. We were correct concerning the onset of a second wave.
    2. Governments will have to become more effective at constraining the pandemic, locating new virulent strains and keeping the economy operating. This is happening in the East at present, but not in the West. This prediction proved correct.
    3. Testing (including for new strains) and tracking must be greatly enhanced. This prediction proved correct.
    4. A global response to the pandemic could and should be led by Britain. This will exclude China and possibly America (by its own choice). This prediction is on track.
    5. There needs to be more focus on the inevitable mutations of the virus into a multi-strained simultaneous pandemic. This prediction proved correct.
    6. In Western societies there could be long term health benefits as populations are encouraged to take self-responsibility for their health. This prediction is on track.
  6. The lockdown strategy of Western governments will in time be viewed as a misguided response that equated to economic suicide. This is because lockdown failed to balance the overall relatively low death rate of the majority versus the high magnitude of economic destruction. By focussing on the preservation of the older, less productive population, governments have sacrificed the future for the younger population. The failure by Western governments to respond holistically illuminates both the predominant left-brained thinking process and the influence of the madness of collective behaviour. Governments should have resisted this with clear strategic leadership. This prediction is on track.
  7. There will be a sovereign debt crisis in Italy and/or Spain. The German Supreme Court will do all they can to resist the ECBs support of the Italian bond market. Bond yields will rise considerably by the years end. America will also be at risk of a sovereign bond crisis and ultimate restructuring. Bond yields will rise not due to economic recovery, but due to the risk of holding debt. This prediction has still to unfold.
  8. America's role as the global hegemony will continue to wane. Trump will not be elected again. New non-American alliances will evolve. The dollar will fall by 20-30% against the major currencies. This prediction is on track.
  9. The EU will fracture from its current structure and devolve to national levels. This will be triggered in the later stages of Brexit. Moreover, Brexit will happen on terms that benefit the UK as the EU’s position weakens. This prediction proved correct. The vacuum created by the shrinkage of American global influence and the accelerated Chinese coercion of other nations could provide Britain with a massive opportunity to strengthen its global links with the Commonwealth and establish a new global trading network. Britain will hold the upper hand in the Brexit negotiations. While a no-deal outcome is probable (as the economic environment worsens in the next six months) the EU will find they have the weaker hand and thus will yield to British demands at the last moment. Sterling will appreciate more than any other currency in the world during the next 6 months rising to Cable 1.60 plus and against the Euro to 0.65. Exporters, be warned and prepared. This prediction is on track.
  10. There will be social unrest in Russia. Resultantly, there is a high probability that Putin will be displaced. Such an eventuality would provide the strategic opportunity to entice Russia back into the Western fold.  This prediction is on track.

 

 

3.0 The Q3 Market Predictions

3.1 GF Methodology

I was a macro asset manager for over 35 years. I know there is a big difference between having an idea and translating it into profit. My Arkent and Market Analysis Services are designed to do just that.

Over the past 12 months, Global Forecaster has evolved its risk system into the one described below. The trade performance tables represent this standardised system.

To remind you of how it works, each idea has a risk unit, defined from the entry point to the stop level, and a trade idea in one market can have a maximum of 100% which equates to 10 risk units at any one time. Trade recommendations can be either 33.3%, 66.6% or 100%. The 100% limit in a market can be put on all at once or in combinations of 33% and 66% sub-trades. For example, T12a, T12b and T12c would be three 33% trades in one market and for one idea. High conviction trades require the time frames of short, medium, and long to all be aligned. Notably, in 2020 Q3 the conviction levels were very high due to the high and integrated signal strength associated with my Phase 3 roadmap.

My trading strategy is to trade in alignment with long term directions and trends and then find short term entry points that translate into long term time frames that produce tight risk rewards on entry as well as high multiple risk returns. The tight risk rewards on entry may mean that an entry point needs to be attempted several times. A spreadsheet is available on request to explain all the trades which are displayed on the site and the summary tables below.

We then go a stage further, taking my trade recommendations and applying them to specific fund structures such as Top Macro, General Macro, Long Short and Commodity funds operated on behalf of clients. The history and performance of those funds is given below. 

 

3.2 Top Performing Markets Over the Past 12 Months

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Q4

As an example of how the Global Forecaster risk system works we have included a table of my top-performing markets. Take the FTSE as an example where 763.2 risk units were generated over 12 months. This equates to a 71x return on a 100% trade of 10 units. In reality, as some of the units would have been 33% and 66% this will underestimate the return. Even so, 76x is a massive number. Even a 13x multiple represents a very significant return at the bottom of the table.

Another clear pattern that this table demonstrates is my predictive systems work in all the asset classes I cover. This is conditional of course on directional movement which has a cyclicity of fallow periods and fertile periods. Key to this system is avoiding the fallow periods that eat up energy and capital with no return, focusing instead on the fertile periods in sectors. This is key to consistent overall portfolio generation.

 

3.3 General Appraisal of Q3 Performance

October looked to be on track for a major risk-off market move as the weaker European stock markets started to accelerate lower. As they did so we were able to lower the stops and lock in small returns. However, the rally that in retrospect looks like a continuation of the Phase 2 correction was sharper and unexpected and hence our equity performance for the quarter was poor and mixed in FX bonds and commodities. The best performing market was Bitcons which we captured from 6000 to 20,000.

 

3.3.1 Equity Markets

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eurostoxx Q4

The Above Chart Shows the Eurostoxx trading during the quarter

 

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Equity

Our strategy of selling the weakest stock markets in preference to the strongest proved once more to be a successful trading adage this quarter as the weakest markets dropped the furthest distance, allowing the stops to be lowered before the late October rally commenced. However, overall equity predictions were negative for this quarter.

 

3.3.2 FX Markets

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dollarindexQ4

The above chart shows the Dollar Index and the quarters trade locations

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currency

Our  strategy was one of being long term short on the Dollar, but medium term being in a 4th wave correction. The effect was a mixed return across the Dollar pairs. Only Bitcoin produced an exceptional return for the Quarter as our long predictions bore fruit.

 

3.3.3 Bond markets

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bonds

These markets were trapped in corrective ranges that we classify as 4th wave before one more rush higher. As such, they provided mixed returns. Bunds gave positive returns, with US  bonds giving negative returns.

 

3.3.4 EM Markets

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EM

There were very few recommendations made in this sector over the quarter.

 

 

3.3.5 Commodities

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com

Considering that Gold and Silver were in a messy sideways trading pattern our recommendations were very solid and productive. In oil we sought to go short too early, but in Nat gas made some good returns. In basic metals we were too early for our short position.

 

 

4.0 Funds Performance

Global Forecaster operates four fund portfolios for clients by applying GF trade recommendations.

 

4.1 Long Short (Square point)

A long short fund of $200m with a max of 50 equity positions of $4m.

Image
equities Q4 SqPt

This fund suffered from the equity market rally in which our key short on oil and banks flew in our face. Whilst we traded our Gold and Silver stock portfolio well the gains were only net marginal. This created the first loss making quarter in this fund.

 

4.2 Commodity (Square Point) A Commodity Fund

Image
commodity sqpoint

There were few technical problems that prevented the capturing of the Gold and Sliver rally, whilst we lost money on the Oil rally and base metal move, producing a  quarter.

 

4.3 Top Macro (Client X)

A concentrated best of my macro ideas with zero leverage.

Its key positions have been: Short WTI and Brent and Short FTSE and Eurostoxx. 

The net loss over the quarter was 3% with the previous four month return at 15%.

 

4.4 General Macro (Client Y)

Contains 80% of all the trades generated from equity indices, FX, bonds and commodities.

The returns over this quarter were poor.

 

Individual Macro Market Analysis & Forecasts

FINANCIAL MARKETS ANALYST

You’ll receive David’s invaluable real time trade recommendations, including charts and market outlooks.

Choose one sector from Stocks, Crypto Currency, FX, Bonds, Emerging Markets or Commodities, and receive real time updates and forecasts.

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Immediate access to Murrinations Insights, on the website, as well as updates via newsletter alerts. David writes about geopolitics, national security/military, history and financial markets. Worth £500 p.a. 
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Access to Arkent Macro Scenario Updates - unified strategic market perspectives, within a secure member’s area on the website. Also sent in a newsletter, within minutes of publication to the website.
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Access to David’s Financial Market Analysis & Forecasts - real time trade recommendations across Equity Indices, Companies, Crypto Currency, FX Bonds, precious metals and commodities, within a secure member’s area on the website. Also sent in a newsletter, within minutes of publication to the website.
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If you’re interested in David’s strategic market perspectives, then this is for you.

These strategy updates are titled Arkent Macro Scenario Updates, named after the Ark and severity of the next expected global economic downturn.

1 month - £1500

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Immediate access to Murrinations Insights, on the website, as well as updates via newsletter alerts. David writes about geopolitics, national security/military, history and financial markets. Worth £500 p.a. 
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Access to Arkent Macro Scenario Updates - unified strategic market perspectives, within a secure member’s area on the website. Also sent in a newsletter, within minutes of publication to the website.
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Access to David’s Financial Market Analysis & Forecasts - real time trade recommendations across Equity Indices, Companies, Crypto Currency, FX Bonds, precious metals and commodities, within a secure member’s area on the website. Also sent in a newsletter, within minutes of publication to the website.
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PREMIUM STRATEGIST PACKAGE

In addition to David’s strategic market perspectives, titled Arkent Macro Scenario Updates, this package will give you David’s invaluable real time trade recommendations, including charts and market outlooks.

Choose one sector from Stocks, Crypto Currency, FX, Bonds, Emerging Markets or Commodities, and receive real time updates and forecasts.

1 month - £2200

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Immediate access to Murrinations Insights, on the website, as well as updates via newsletter alerts. David writes about geopolitics, national security/military, history and financial markets. Worth £500 p.a. 
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Access to Arkent Macro Scenario Updates - unified strategic market perspectives, within a secure member’s area on the website. Also sent in a newsletter, within minutes of publication to the website.
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Access to David’s Financial Market Analysis & Forecasts - real time trade recommendations across Equity Indices, Companies, Crypto Currency, FX Bonds, precious metals and commodities, within a secure member’s area on the website. Also sent in a newsletter, within minutes of publication to the website.
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Global Macro Package

David’s premium package is for anyone who needs David’s strategic market perspectives, updates and forecasts for all sectors: Stocks, Crypto Currency, FX, Bonds, Emerging Markets and Commodities.

You’ll receive real time updates and forecasts as and when the markets changes, giving you predictions on when to make your move.

 

1 month - £5000

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Immediate access to Murrinations Insights, on the website, as well as updates via newsletter alerts. David writes about geopolitics, national security/military, history and financial markets. Worth £500 p.a. 
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Access to Arkent Macro Scenario Updates - unified strategic market perspectives, within a secure member’s area on the website. Also sent in a newsletter, within minutes of publication to the website.
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Access to David’s Financial Market Analysis - real time trade recommendations across Equity Indices, Companies, Crypto Currency, FX Bonds, precious metals and commodities, within a secure member’s area on the website. Also sent in a newsletter, within minutes of publication to the website.
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Receive analysis on 1 sector and all indices within - View all available market sectors

Global Strategic Consultancy

David’s personalised consulting service, for C suite executives, private equity firms, heads of family businesses or Asset Managers, provides a bespoke selection of insights, predications and market strategies. Integrated with regular briefings over email and by phone or video conference, as and when you need it most.

 

 


Arkent Scenario; Heads Up Phase 3 is Accelerating

Image
Vix stock chart

Above is the Vix Chart that is running on rails. Expect a major upwards move in Volatility next week. As the wave 3 accelerates

Although last week might have seemed relatively quiet I believe that it has set the scene for some very big weeks ahead as our Phase 3 scenario begins to move into reality. The five crises of American decline are all in play and any one of them can appear from nowhere. Most of all I believe that with the perception of the Fed PUT making investments an apparent dead cert, everyone is max long and only a few smart investors are boldly short. The longs are in my view the walking dead.Note the risks of a stock market crash decline are extremely high, as delusion andreality meet.

1. Bond Markets

Look set to break to the upside in price in Bunds and US T Notes. This will be a dash to negative yields from the current 0.7% to -0.3% as the reality of the US  economic collapse hits home. Note the bond market is much smarter than the equity market. Breaks only ½ appoint higher should see accelerations to the upside. However once yields have gone negative the next phase will be a sovereign debt crisis due to the hugh debt levels incurred by the response to the pandemic compounding the already high debt burdens. As reported in the Guardian today.

Britain’s public debt is larger than the size of the country’s economy for the first time since 1963, after the government borrowed a record £55bn in May.

The total level of debt has risen by £173bn over the last year to reach £1.95tn, or 100.9% of GDP, as ministers introduced unprecedented support for businesses and households during the coronavirus crisis.

The UK joined Italy, the US and Japan in the club of nations with levels of borrowing higher than their national income as the latest Office for National Statisticsfigures showed the UK government borrowed £55.2bn in May, roughly nine times more than the same month last year and the highest monthly borrowing since comparable records began in 1993.

2.Gold and Silver

Look ready to break higher with Bonds. After a period of lateral corrections, I expect these two metals to truly surprise in the strength of their rally in the week ahead.

3.The Dollar.

Has been in a lateral correction, but I expect that the trend of the decline of the dollar will continue next week. Especially as the move to negative rates removes and Dollar carry advantage.

4.Emerging Markets

The MSCI along with other EM stock markets has been very correlated to the SP500 and similarly is ready to decline from current levels in the Phase 3 decline. What is fascinating is that the Dollar/Em currency pairs turned earlier than the stock markets complex by a week and have been coiling for a major upside break (EM currency weakness) to new highs.

5.Commodities

Have been behaving like equities with coincident timing and they two finished their wave 2s on Friday so should drop in the days to come.

6.Individual Equities.

We are keen on three sectors.

  1. Long gold and silver stocks as they are set to sore so max positions here.
  2. Short the banking sector will suffer very heavily with the negative rate move.
  3. Short oil stocks will have a powerful drop as oil falls once more to below break evens.

Of note is that Tesla looks to have made a high and reversed (we are short) and all the strong US stocks that drove the corrective rally are now reversing.

7.Equities.

Our scenario that OUR Phase 2 high was on 9/10 June looks stronger at this week's end.

Last week was in essence the wave 2 correction week, with a powerful rally that conformed to expectations of an irregular pattern  that got every bull in town hot and excited. The mantra I heard all week was, see I told you you could not fight the FED and ECBWhat fascinated me however was that no one seemed to realise that the price was lower than the major high of June 9/10th so why were they so bullish? Because wave 2s are all about giving the impression that the previous trend is intact, ie in this case the bull is in play. However Fridays drop is the start of wave 3 and whilst initially, the bulls will think they are right the impending falls below critical levels on the downside will begin to change this psychology. Expect a negative next week with price accelerating to the downside as it progresses. Note the risks of a crash decline are extremely high, as delusion andreality.

8.Special Feature last week's subtle patterns exposed.

As a special feature, I have included the subtly of the pattern differentiation between markets that helped me better predict the short term reversal points and rate the relative strengths of each market.

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stock charts
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market analysis

Macro Markets

This service is designed to provide long term and medium term investment outlooks in a range of markets including:

Equities

  • Fang Index
  • Nasdaq
  • S&P 500
  • Vix Volatility
  • Dow Jones Industrial
  • Russell 2000 Index
  • DAX
  • Euro Stoxx 50
  • Eurovix Volatility
  • FTSE 100
  • FTSE 350 Travel
  • Italy 40
  • Spain 35
  • China A50
  • Hong Kong HS 50
  • Japan 225
  • Tawain Index
  • Other DM Indices

Crypto

  • Bitcoin ($)
  • Crypto 10 Index

FX

  • Dollar Index
  • Euro Dollar
  • Euro Yen
  • Dollar Swiss
  • Dollar Yen
  • Dollar Yuan
  • Dollar Canada
  • Sterling (Cable)
  • Sterling Euro
  • Sterling Yen
  • Dollar NZD
  • AUD/USD
  • AUD/NZD
  • EM Currencies

Bonds

  • US Bonds
  • Bunds
  • UK Gilts
  • Italian BtB
  • EU
  • High Yield Credit

Emerging Markets

  • MSCI Index
  • South Africa 40
  • Brazil 60
  • India 50
  • Other EM Indices
  • Dollar/Mex
  • Dollar/Brazil
  • Dollar/Rand
  • Dollar Ruble
  • Dollar Turkish

Commodities

  • Gold
  • Silver
  • Platinum
  • Palladium
  • Carbon Emissions
  • Oil
  • Natural Gas
  • CRB
  • Copper
  • Iron Ore
  • Aluminium
  • Lead
  • Nickel
  • Lumber
  • Corn
  • Soya Beans

Those marked in bold are more frequently updated.

Sample Forecasts

Below one indices is shown from each of the five sectors covered. Click on an indices or use the arrows provided to view each slide.

Equities
Crypto
Bonds
Emerging Markets
Commodities

FTSE About to Accelerate to The Downside

Medium Term
Very Bearish

The FTSE has been trading in what to the unstrained eye looks like a sideways pattern. However it counts as a coil of 1,2s which is soon to accelerate to the downside. Thus sell a further 3x here at 6166 with a 6230 stop and move the stops on the 6x short sold at 6444, down to 6350 locking in a a 12x return.

FTSE

Bitcoin-Reversal Structure In Play-Do Not Be suckered In!

Medium Term
Very Bearish

 

BitcoinT7a4HBitcoin has been tracing out what we believe is a diagonal triangle that will reverse to the downside anytime soon, in a sharp break lower to 30,000.

T7a sell 100% here at 62730 with a 65800 stop

BitcoinT7aD

T Notes; Increasing Position To Max Short

Medium Term
Very Bearish

We are increasing our Short position to an max 200% short here, as evidence builds to support the next move being down in price.

T17b sell 100% here @ 134.44 with a 134.84 stop

T Notes 17b

Brazil 60 Ending Its Phase 2 Correction

Medium Term
Very Bearish

The Brazil 60 has now competed its phase 2 correction and will reverse and start a decline to below the March lows.

T2a Sell 6x here @ 98.9K with a 103.0K stop 

Brazil 60

Take Profit On Gold

Medium Term
Neutral

Gold looks to have completed  a 5 wave rally from £1670 and should fall back to $1740 before the next phase of the rally.

take all profits here at $1782

Gold

Risk Allocation Rules

  1. Trade sizes are allocated on previous success and quality of the individual signals combined with signals from the bigger picture.
  2. The trade weighting model has evolved over the past quarters to hopefully give clients an improved measure of the perceived quality of opportunity associated with a trade recommendation. The essential principle is that each trade recommendation can have up to 10 risk unit on at any one time.100%=a 10 unit risk when translated into our performance stats.
    1. In Q4;2019 and Q1;2020 Trades were weighted with up to three risk units. Either 1x or 2x or 3x positions. In effect, a 1x position was a 33.3% weighting and  3x was a 100% weighting.
    2. In Q2;2020 Trades were weighted with up to nine risk units. Either 3x or 6x or 9x positions. In effect, a 3x position was a 33.3% weighting and  9x was a 100% weighting.
    3. In Q3;2020 Trades are migrating from the Q2;2020 structure (above) to one of the percentages. Thus In effect, a 3x position moves to a 33.3% weighting and a 9x moves to 100% weighting.
  3. Each unit is the same monetary amount from entry to stop, adjusted to size. The tighter the stop the bigger the trade size.
  4. Stops are moved as the trade progress and labelled stop 1, stop 2 and stop 3, etc.
  5. As our levels are set precisely we allow for errors in data and illiquidity. Thus stops have a discretionary add to survive through high or low tick outs.
    1. 0.5% a percent ticks in equity indexes and 2% on individual equities
    2. 40 ticks on ten year Bond trades.
    3. 0.5% on FX.
    4. 0.5% on Gold 0.9% cents on silver.
    5. 1.2% cents on Oil and all other commodities
  6. Each quarter-end there will be a performance summary  for my geopolitical calls and market calls and profitability concerning each market https://www.davidmurrin.co.uk/arkent-scenario-updates/arkent-q1-2020-performance-appraisal

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