David Murrin's Subscription based views and analysis straight to your inbox
David's focus will be on Macro trends, de-risking against shocks and locating new trading opportunities and strategies to maximize investment returns.
Who is this For?
This Market Analysis Service is designed by a highly experienced market risk taker of over three decades for asset managers (hedge funds, banks, institutional investors and Family offices) with medium and long term time frames. David’s history in managing macro capital and predicting market dislocations makes him an invaluable advisor to senior risk takers. His expertise and financial market analysis skills are particularly relevant to the successful management and preservation of capital as the global financial system faces challenges of the order of 2008 in the years ahead. David's credentials as a forecaster are outlined below.
Basis of Analysis
David developed a unique and effective set of behavioural models to predict financial markets whilst at JPM which were extremely effective and profitable. They acted as the foundation for his 20-year career as a CIO of his hedge fund Emergent Assest Management and yeilded some remarkable returns in the most bearish of markets (e.g 84% in 2008 - see track record).
How does it work?
The service is subscription based and provides two distinct inputs to our market analysis:
Arkent Updates named after the Ark and severity of the next expected global economic downturn. These are the integration of all elements of our market views into one coherent strategy and perspective and take into account price models and our geopolitical perspectives (Murrinations) into a single holistic predictive perspective. They are updated as and when major market events provide new information (on average once or twice a month).
Individual Market Analysis is a service is designed to provide long term and medium term investment outlooks and specific recommendations in a range of markets outlined below. Updates are sent out real time as and when the market moves require.
- China A50
- Dow Jones Index
- Euro Stoxx 50
- FTSE 100
- Individual Stocks
- Italy 40
- Spain 35
- S&P 500
- US Tech 100
- Other DM Indices
- Bitcoin ($)
- Dollar Canada
- Dollar Index
- Dollar Swiss
- Dollar Yen
- Dollar Yuan
- Euro Dollar
- Sterling (Cable)
- Sterling Euro
- Sterling Yen
- UK Gilts
- Italian BtB
- US Bonds
- German Bunds
- MSCI Index
- South African 40
- Brazil 60
- India 50
- Dollar Ruble
- Dollar Turkish
- Other EM Indices
- Carbon Emissions
- Commodity Stocks
- Gold and Silver Stocks
- Iron Ore
- Soya Beans
I have known David for over five years and, during that time (all documented) he has predicted the rise of Trump, every twist and turn during the three-year course of Brexit, including Boris becoming PM (a year before he did), and the landslide election result.Rob Hersov - Chairman of Invest Africa
On January 30th he called me and really panicked me (I have all the WhatsApp’s to prove it), which made me dump most of our family equity portfolio and move into cash. He has saved us a large fortune!
When no one was looking, in early January, he warned that the Wuhan Flu was going to become pandemic that would bring the global economy to a dead stop. Simultaneously he predicted the drop of oil from $65 to sub$27 and the collapse of the stock markets. All these predictions were in papers he wrote, and speeches he gave (some at my Invest Africa events), and most people then thought him mad. How silly (and poor) they look now.
I will state from the outset that I generally shun predictions and, by extension, am suspicious of those that claim to see the future. Nonetheless, while David refers to “predictions” on his website, I believe that these are better described as an interpretation of geopolitical conditions through the prism of his Stages of Empire theory. This has enabled David to consistently make seemingly outlandish but remarkably accurate interpretations of current events and, by extension, market calls. Given his interpretative framework, I see no reason why David’s analysis should not remain as consistently accurate for many years to come.Andy Pfaff - Chief Investment Officer | Coherent Commodity Investment (Pty) Ltd
Many thanks for your Valuable advice on positioning in different asset classes.Prakash Shirke - CFA Investment Adviser
Recalling our meeting at a Hannam and Partners dinner and subsequent lunch, I have regarded you as something of a sage as you predicted both the Trump victory and Brexit referendum as well as the market meltdown which we have witnessed over the past week or so.John Battersby - Director of the South African Chamber of Commerce consultant/journalist/author
Several years ago I had the fortune of meeting David Murrin through Rob Hersov. David captured his audience with his candid dialogue, no frill content and a wit that equaled his exceptional insights. His ability to leverage off historical context and provide relevance to the current global political arena had his audience spellbound. I would recommend David as both a speaker or VIP dinner guest at any table.Ariella Kuper - CEO Solution Strategists Pty Ltd
I don’t know enough about charting to make much of it myself, but I’ve seen enough to recognize the repetitive nature of market-driven behaviour. Market patterns do repeat and are therefore worth paying attention to. For instance, for a superb overview, take a look at David Murrin’s website. His global forecasts and commentary is worth a sign up to run through his chart-supported outlook and reading of the underlying forces at playBill Blain - Morning Porridge and Shard Capital
David Murrin is a long time friend as well as a very special investor. He brings to the 21st century an enormous amount of experience as well as knowledge. We live in a very difficult environment. He is in invaluable.Johnathan Smith Founder - Chesapeake Asset Management
David Murrin is one of the best global macro forecasters I know, do sign up for his newsletter… ...he is an outstanding human and one of my favourite people in this industryAnric Blatt Managing Partner - Global Fund Advisors
Global macro managers have to navigate a complex web of interconnected risks: market, credit, liquidity, financing, counterparty and operational, to name but a few...
Pattern analysis templates for Market Analysis based on Elliott wave counts.
Below is an example Market Outlook you would commonly receive from David. But as a subscriber you will also get a lot more detail and exclusive guidance on what to do with your investments.
Example Market Outlook
Oil coiling To Drop
The $78 high in late 2018 completed the end of the wave 4 correction and since then we have been coiling to make a new low. The secondary high at $67 is significant as a wave 2. The pop upwards post the strike on Saudia facilities is also a smaller wave 2 correction and as such we expect to see oil break down in the weeks ahead. Long term targets are sub $27.