Arkite Alerts Archive

Welcome to the archive of Arkite Alerts, Global Forecaster's free newsletter notifying subscribers of the latest news, podcasts, interviews, Global Trader performance reviews and more.

Interview: Western Leadership Blind & Driving World to War

Dear Arkite,

Watch my latest interview on the Geopolitics & Empire podcast:

"David Murrin discusses his system of forecasting global geopolitics and market trends, which takes into account the stages of empire and imperial decline. There is a rhythm and drumbeat to war which has a bigger cycle of 112 years. We're looking at a struggle between maritime (lateral) democratic governance and landpower (hierarchical) autocratic governance. Democracy is weaker than its ever been. America entered the fifth stage of decline with 9/11. Western leadership is blind and driving the world to war, we're over the brink. WWIII started with the invasion of Ukraine, the Middle East is now on fire, and the last piece of the puzzle is when China chooses to go to war. Decline (e.g. USA) means the fracturing of systems and less to go around. We will continue to see de-dollarization, high inflation, and higher oil and gold prices. Bitcoin, blockchains, and crypto are temporary safe havens that will eventually collapse. We shouldn't worry about Davos Man."

https://geopoliticsandempire.com/

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Geopolitics & Empire

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Global Forecaster David Murrin and Catherine Cashmore discuss the escalation toward WW3

Dear Arkite,

Watch my latest interview with Catherine Cashmore, Land Cycle Investor, where we cover WW3, Australia's defence against attack, the commodity cycle, equities and much more:

"Considering recent global events, it couldn’t be a more foreboding time. The volatility of this cycle has been significant. Economically, the stages have played out as expected. We’ve witnessed land prices follow the same repeating pattern, in the same sequence and rhythm, as outlined in Hoyt’s and Wenzlick’s research in the 1930s.

When I mentioned last week that I would be conducting another interview with David Murrin, to discuss the situation in detail, members flooded me with questions. I managed to get through quite a few of them. Most questions from members were focused on how involvement in war would impact Australia. Are we adequately defended? Would young Australians face conscription into the army? There were also the usual concerns regarding safe havens for investment as we approach the peak and beyond.

David has forecast war with China to commence as early as this year – 2024. That’s a terrifying concept. Whilst I do not totally align with all of David’s timings - especially in respect to the peak of the Commodity cycle (noting, however, that the land cycle exhibits three peaks at slightly different times - in stocks, land, and commodity markets.) His analysis is not rash.

David has conducted decades of research that considers both the timing of the land cycle (in this instance, the Kondratieff Wave, or K-Wave – i.e., 3 land cycles. 54-56 years.) and also the longer 112-year Hegemonic War Cycle. As Kondratiev noted, in the upward swing of the wave years of prosperity are more numerous than during the downswing – the stage of his cycle that some refer to as Winter. “Our investigation demonstrates that during the rise of the long waves years of prosperity are more numerous whereas years of depression predominate during the downswing..” (Kondratiev -The Long Waves in Economic Life) This is where we’re heading. The winter years of the K-wave. You need to be prepared. In our interview we delve into the situation in detail. It was conducted late at night Melbourne time, early afternoon UK time. That always makes these discussions, personally, rather challenging – and doesn’t lead to a very restful night’s sleep afterwards!"

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lci interview

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Lord of The Rings Has profound Lessons For Us All Today; Especially Biden

 

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Rings

As we outlined in Breaking the Code of History, the rise and fall of civilisations is cyclical. Indeed, the periods of order or social coherence (high anti-entropy) and disorder or dark ages (high entropy) are very much part of the continuum of our human history. As a result, we have created stories and fables that encapsulate heroic narratives against the backdrop of the rises and falls of empire. Stories that are designed to act as lessons we can draw upon in our times of need, as well as templates and warnings. Battlestar Galactica, Star Wars and The Matrix are all examples of this phenomenon.

Dramatic narrative has a habit of uncannily mirroring important world events. JRR Tolkien’s Lord of the Rings is a template for the current, potentially catastrophic, chaos we find ourselves in. Sign up to Murrinations to appreciate this perspective. Lord Of The Rings Has Profound Lessons For Us All Today; Especially Biden and Sunak

Today in Ukraine and Israel: "Open war is upon you whether you would risk it or not."

Can you afford not to know what comes next? Read Iran's War On Israel 9: Over The Brink.

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insights

SIGN UP TO MURRINATIONS TODAY, TO KEEP AHEAD IN THESE DRAMATICALLY CHANGING TIMES! CHOOSE YOUR SUBSCRIPTION | DAVID MURRIN

Our Predictions for What Israel Will Do Next.

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iSREAL PRECIPICE

As an Arkite follower of Global Forecaster, there has never been a better time to sign up to Murrinations, to learn what is coming next.

Based on our extensive human behavioural models, both the Battle for Ukraine and the Middle Eastern Regional War, are being driven by a 112 year entropic cycle, as part of the unfolding hegemonic war of autocracy against democracy. A global war that will only intensify into the 2030 peak.

Read our Extensive Analysis and Prediction; Iran's War On Israel 9: Over The Brink

Following the Hamas attack on Israel on 7 October, two days later we warned that it would inevitably escalate into a full-blown Middle Eastern conflict. See Iran's war Against Israel and Escalation Into The New Regional War. Sadly, on the night of 13 April, this prediction came to pass.

Whilst Biden and Co are desperate to encourage Israel to ''take the win'' we argue that to do so would undermine Israels future survival and that of the West. A position driven by Iran's War On Israel 8; Biden's Election Agenda Overrules Israel's Strategic Imperative. Biden's position of appeasement is now being parroted by Sunak,Cameron and other leaders, demonstrating just how weak the West has become in the face of an outright declaration of war by Iran. A position that will not only emboldened Iran, but Russia, China, and North Korea to continue to escalate their levels of expansive aggression.

In this Special Murrination we summarise the available information on the commencement of the opening of hostilities by Iran and our predictions for what Israel will do next.

Can you afford not to know what comes next?

SIGN UP TO MURRINATIONS TODAY, TO KEEP AHEAD IN THESE DRAMATICALLY CHANGING TIMES! CHOOSE YOUR SUBSCRIPTION | DAVID MURRIN

Our World IS Falling Over The Brink

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Brink 3

As an Arkite follower of Global Forecaster, there has never been a better time to sign up to Murrinations, to learn what is coming next.

We warned our subscribers  of the arrival of the Covid Pandemic and the invasion of Ukraine, months before they took place

Similarly on October 9th, two days after the Hamas attack, we warned that it would inevitably escalate into a fully blown Middle eastern conflict. WW3; The New Age of War; Chapter 2: Iran's war Against Israel and Iran's War Against Israel 1; Escalation Into The New Regional War.

Based on our extensive human behavorial models, both the Battle for Ukraine and the Middle Eastern Regional War, are being driven by a 112 year entropic cycle, as part of the unfolding hegemonic war of autocracy against democracy. A global war that will only intensify into the 2030 peak.

So can you afford not to know what comes next and how to protect yourselves and your loved ones?

Sign up to Murrinations today, to keep ahead in these dramatically changing times! CHOOSE YOUR SUBSCRIPTION | David Murrin

The World is on the Brink

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World on the edge

Dear Arkite,

Watch my recent interview The World is on the Brink, It’s Time to Start Paying Attention Apr 6, 2024.

"Today's episode of the Jay Martin Show features special guest, David Murrin - renowned global forecaster, investor, and author. Join Jay and David as they explore the cycles of war, wealth, and power that have historically shaped our world and our wallets. Unpacking the overlooked conflict that could dictate our future, Murrin offers a unique perspective on the battle for Africa, the rise and fall of empires, and the significant impacts these cycles have on the markets for oil, gold, silver, and Bitcoin. With insights grounded in history and driven by his background in physics, Murrin provides a provocative outlook on where we are in these cycles today and what the future may hold for global hegemony. You'll want to stick around until the end."

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Empires on the edge

0:00 Intro

1:23 The Battle for Africa: Why It's the World's Most Overlooked Conflict

6:14 America's Decline: Murrin Predicts the Future

8:05 The Inevitable Clash: Hegemons in Decline vs Rising Powers

13:37 Democracy vs Autocracy: The Eternal Struggle

15:01 The End of Western Empires: Is America the Last?

20:34 Africa's Strategic Importance in Global Conflicts

26:01 World War III: Are We Already In It?"

31:19 The West's Betrayal of Ukraine

36:09 The Economic Time Bomb: China's Strategy Revealed

39:12 The Rise of Individualism: Its Impact on Society and Democracy

44:25 The Necessity of Lateral Thinking in Leadership

48:14 The Return to Community and Faith: A Trend Among Young Families

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Time Is Money Podcast

Dear Arkite,

I recently appeared on the Tid er penger (Time Is Money) podcast which you can listen to now:

"Time is money has had the pleasure of interviewing the multi-talented David Murrin. He has a background as a hedge fund manager and currently does geopolitical analysis full-time. He goes over the state of affairs, his views on the markets and makes very specific predictions."

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Time is money
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Time is money

If you don't speak Norwegian please skip to 4 minutes 30 seconds. Listen Now!

31 March 2024 Why Russia’s glide bomb assault is changing the war in Ukraine (thetimes.co.uk) 17 days after publication of our Murrination The Battle for Ukraine 73; Large Russian Glide Bombs Are Breaking The Stalemate the main line press followed with similar articles. Demonstrating that Murrination’s bring you the news before others understand its unfolding.

Can you afford not to know?

Wisdom from 40 years of investing

Dear Arkite,

I'm very pleased to have the privilege of sharing a website with you from our long-standing client Satish Rai. Here he shares his wisdom from 40 years of investing with lots of helpful tips that will improve your savings and investment strategies. We highly recommend you view his insights:

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Satish Rai

 

Find out more

Interview: War and the Real Estate Cycle - Part II

Dear Arkite,

We've listened to your feedback and simplified the homepage of the website, adding tabbed content and a new menu to help you navigate the site! The homepage still contains most of its original content but we have moved it into tabs to make it easier to grasp what products and content we offer. Do take a look and let us know what you think

My third interview with Catherine Cashmore, Land Cycle Investor, is available to watch covering my five-stage empire model, Israel, Yemen’s Houthi rebels, Iran, Russia, AI and China!

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Land Cycle podcast

"This is my third interview with David, and despite the early hour, it didn’t disappoint. David is one of the smartest analysts I’ve met. He has over two decades of experience in financial forecasting and strategic consulting.

Murrin’s thesis is essentially a five-stage empire model (using K-Wave and Elliot wave analysis), which in 2002 when he created it, implied, and predicted that:

  • The US was in terminal decline — the fifth stage of his empire model.
  • China was the second of the Asian super empires and was in its expansion phase and would move into the gap aggressively to create a hegemonic challenge to the US.
  • He has forecast that the peak of their hegemonic challenge will come with the next commodity cycle peak — between 2027 to 2030.
  • And we would have a human systems threat of a third World War unless certain steps were taken now to change the course of history.

David is forecasting war with China to commence this year – 2024."

Watch Now

China Will Go To War This Year

 

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Who could have predicted the outbreak of COVID-19 and Putin’s invasion of Ukraine? The answer is David Murrin of Global Forecaster. He predicted the former in his groundbreaking book “Breaking the Code of History” published way back in 2010.

The world urgently needs to listen to David again, because now he is forecasting that China will go to war in 2024, in the Chinese Year of the Dragon. Few outside China are even remotely prepared for this.

There are three main reasons why David believes China will go to war this year. The first is the decline of America. The second is the rise of China. The third is David’s detailed analysis that shows war is both cyclical and inevitable, though the majority of us fail to understand its primary drivers. Let’s examine briefly these three arguments.

 

The Decline of America

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America has been omnipotent since the end of WW2. However, based on David’s Predictive Model of Empire Cycles, America is now in the 5th and final stage of decline. America today is weaker than Great Britain in 1914 and even 1939. This weakness is demonstrable in the political fracture of the nation and the massive rise in the debt-to-GDP ratio, now at levels last seen in 1945. These huge levels of leverage imply that the real unleveraged growth rate of the economy is barely 0.1 - 0.2%.

Two decades of money printing, pushing most stock market indices to record levels, have blinded the public, the government, and the military to the threats America faces. The long period of relative peace since WW2 has led Western populations to believe this is a permanent state, rather than a phase of the same cycles that their ancestors experienced. Worst of all, this denial by the West is perceived by the axis of autocracy as weakness, thus encouraging escalation. To add fuel to the fire, there is the specific issue of President Biden. His weakness, as evidenced by his rout from Afghanistan and his failure to support Ukraine to victory, invites attack. The longer Biden is in office, the greater the gains to be had by China in fighting America. Hence the imperative for China to start the war as early as possible in 2024.

 

The Rise of China

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China, by contrast, is in the second stage of its expansion. However, it has been constrained by American power until recently. President Xi understands that he either challenges hegemony or accepts the status quo. In that sense, 2024 is a now-or-never moment.

The CCP’s plan to covertly seduce the West to invest in and build the world’s greatest industrial base in China has succeeded beyond its wildest dreams. With unfettered access to natural resources coming overland from Russia, China can easily outbuild the world, and continue to do so in the event of WW3. Since 2020, Xi has shifted China from a manufacturing, export-driven economy to an internally driven economy, with a growing demand to build ships and weapons. This has been accompanied by stockpiling supplies of energy and commodities, in what David calls “Xi’s Four Year Plan”. It emulates the Nazis’ four-year plan in 1936, the consequences of which Chamberlain never understood: that Hitler must either go to war in 1940 or go bust, as will Xi if he does not go to war this year.

Simultaneously China’s intelligence services have been running rings around the West for decades, stealing military and civilian IP on an industrial scale, penetrating the West’s top universities, and compromising senior politicians and families. Meanwhile, China’s counterintelligence efforts have blinded the CIA, allowing China the element of total surprise, similar to that achieved by Hamas on the 7th of October. Not only is China’s PLAN (People’s Liberation Army Navy) ready for war, but it also now has technological superiority in key spheres of battle. This comes in the form of the mass deployment of DF-21 and DF-26 anti-ship ballistic missiles and more recently DF-17 hypersonic glide weapons. This PLAN window of superiority may only last 12-18 months, further strengthening the case for China to attack sooner rather than later. Today China has already amassed missiles on the recently fortified islands off its coast, both to deny an enemy access to China and to control the water and airspace out to the second island chain. China has thousands of missiles ready for launch at very short notice, which would quickly overwhelm any US and Japanese forces operating inside the second island chain.

The unfolding world war is one of a titanic nature, continuing the pattern that dates back to the Napoleonic wars, between the organisational constructs of greater individual responsibility and growth (aka democracy), and that of constrained human existence in a hierarchical structure (aka autocracy) led by a cohort of dictators. The greatest of them all is President Xi. He is a predator, coded to think in a way that few understand. He sees the world very differently. Like most predators, he is cautious and calculating, seeking to remove the risks of destroying his prey. With him, strong deterrence works, if only the West possessed such a thing! Conversely, the extreme denial and weakness displayed in the West will only encourage Xi’s aggression, as it did Putin over Ukraine.

The cyclicality and inevitability of war

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The entropic 112-year hegemonic war cycle dates back beyond the Napoleonic wars and was the trigger for WW1 in 1914. This entropic pulse has already driven the wars in Ukraine and Israel and is set to intensify into its 2027-2030 peak. The cycle places us today at the start of a decade-long WW3 with China and its allies, which back in 2009, David predicted would start in 2022.

Every signal David sees today suggests that the cycle is running as predicted and that these current wars will erupt into WW3. When they do, the PLAN will conduct a Pacific war that has the same geographical constraints as that fought by Japan in WW2. The intermediate objective will be to extend power out to the third island chain, thus evicting America from the region and allowing China to consolidate these gains into one economic sphere. Five years later they will emerge with a giant navy to dominate the oceans and to pick off democratic nations continent by continent.

American weakness, China’s rise, and the cycles of history lead David to the conclusion that China will go to war in 2024. He was right about Covid. He was right about Ukraine. Heaven help us all if he is right about China too.

 

For further information on how Global Forecaster can help you navigate an exceptionally challenging geopolitical and market environment, David can be contacted via his website http://www.davidmurrin.co.uk.

GF