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There are distinct hallmarks that often precede wars launched by authoritarian regimes, led by highly narcissistic leaders —patterns of behaviour that signal a nation has embarked on an inevitable road to war. These include:

1. An expansive and aggressive sense of national energy or destiny
2. Initiation of rearmament programs with associated revolutions in military affairs- seeking asymmetric militray advantage.
3. The systematic suppression of truth and dissent within society
4. The manipulation of historical narratives and the proliferation of state propaganda
5. A heightened belief in national exceptionalism or historic mission
6. The framing of existential security imperatives requiring preemptive action
7. The dominating influence of the leader’s personal ego and desire for an incredible legacy
8. A manufactured sense of urgency—whether due to the ageing of the leader, perceived windows of opportunity, or the desire to correct so-called historic injustices

These warning signs were visible in Putin’s rationale before he invaded Ukraine, and are increasingly echoed in Xi Jinping’s ambitions toward Taiwan.

Both leaders exhibit a convergence of ideological, personal, and strategic motivations that align with this dangerous autocratic pattern, one that history shows almost always ends in war.

Which partially explains how we arrived at this moment............................

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Trump has been escalating pressure on Putin all week following his ultimatum to impose 100% secondary tariffs on buyers of Russian oil. This aggressive move marks a significant shift in his stance toward Moscow.

While Trump has claimed that he ordered the forward movement of two U.S. ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs) towards Russia, our evaluation is that this is likely just posturing, given that deterrent US submarines are always within range of Russian targets, especially since the invasion of Ukraine. —The message is still clear. After a lifetime of appearing aligned with Russian interests, it seems the tide may be turning.

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This could indicate that Trump is now serious about halting Putin’s war in Ukraine by forcing him to stop through direct economic and strategic pressure.

For more on our Ukraine forecasts as tensions inevitably rise, stay tuned to our upcoming analysis.

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Dear Arkite,

Listen to the latest The State Of It podcast now!

In the second episode of Season 5 of the State of It podcast, David and Horatio talk about the state of the Iran-Israel conflict and how it may expand into a much larger conflict than what people currently believe.

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Listen Now

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As many of you know, one of the core tenets of our human systems theory is the concept of lateral and linear thinkers—two distinct cognitive archetypes that exist in dynamic tension throughout the rise and fall of empires.

We argue that seafarers are inherently more likely to be lateral thinkers, drawn to the uncertainty and entropy of the open seas. In fact, nations with high coastline-to-landmass ratios—such as Britain and Holland—tend to produce higher percentages of lateral thinkers than landlocked nations. Thus, it was no coincidence that these nations were the cradles of Protestantism, meritocracy, and democracy in Europe.

Therefore, sailing is not only the sport of kings but also a celebration of the democratic and innovative spirit. Sailboat racing attracts a high concentration of lateral thinkers, making it a natural fit for our values at Global Forecaster.

That is why we were proud to sponsor this year's BCYC Round Island Race. Above is the gorgeous Laurent Giles yacht  Lutine storming into the Needles.

The race began early on Day Two of British Classic Week, with Classes 1–3 setting off from the Royal Yacht Squadron line. They headed east along the same route as the America's Cup to circumnavigate the Isle of Wight, continuing a tradition that mirrors the pioneering spirit we champion. The weather was perfect to provide a fabulous race over the next 8 hours.

Watch this video Clip Instagram

Read more here-British Classic Week Day 2

Global Forecaster David Murrin commented, “As human beings, we are, sadly, very predictable. Fortunately, this predictability allows us to find deep-seated historical patterns and use them to understand and predict the future.  In today’s turbulent climate, this is even more valuable.”

David continued, “As sailors, we are lateral thinkers.  On the water, we look at problems from different angles, take risks, and have an adventurous nature.  These maritime characteristics helped form the foundations of democracy and will help us track and predict global events in the future.  The question is, can you afford not to know?”

By predicting geopolitical and market moves before they happen and analysing patterns in human behaviour, Global Forecaster supports individuals and businesses to apply lateral thinking to navigate the future, grasp opportunities and safeguard against turbulent events.

So go lateral and .....

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In the coming weeks, a pro-Russia American figure—perhaps Tucker Carlson or even Donald Trump—may begin touting the idea that the United States owes a debt of gratitude to Russia for its alleged support during the American War of Independence. This narrative is likely to be fueled by a recent interview over the July 4th weekend, in which Vladimir Putin claimed that Russia provided arms and money to aid the American cause.

True or False?

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Answer: False- 

Unlike France, Spain, and the Dutch Republic, Russia did not provide troops, arms, or funds to the American revolutionaries. The controversial Empress Catherine the Great was not sympathetic to the American War for Independence, nor to revolutions or republican ideals. She viewed them as threats to the monarchical order.

Near the end of the war, in 1780, Catherine led the formation of the League of Armed Neutrality—a coalition of European naval powers that opposed Britain's interference with neutral shipping during wartime. This move restricted British naval operations, as the Royal Navy could no longer freely stop and search neutral ships from Russia, Sweden, Denmark, and others. But that is a far cry from supporting the American cause with arms and money.

Once again, Putin is lying—his primary goal being to manipulate gullible Americans and pro-Kremlin mouthpieces.

Understanding objective reality and historical truth is essential to resist the many lies of our modern world.

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You’ve heard of cognitive dissonance — that uncomfortable tension we feel when our actions contradict our beliefs. But what happens when that dissonance expands across an entire society?

We call it Extinction Dissonance.

As explored in Breaking Through the Dissonance of Western Decline, both the U.S. and the U.K. are gripped by a widening disconnect:
Institutions are crumbling. Systems are visibly failing.
Yet daily life rolls on — calm on the surface, denial beneath.

This is no accident. It's a form of hypernormalisation — a term coined by Alexei Yurchak to describe the late Soviet Union and later popularised by filmmaker Adam Curtis. In such a state, dysfunction becomes the norm. Illusion replaces action. Denial becomes a coping strategy.

Extinction Dissonance is the terminal stage:
When a society is clearly in decline, facing existential threats, and yet collectively pretends everything is fine. The result? Inaction, paralysis, and ultimately, collapse.

So, how do you break the spell of denial — and choose a different future?

You start by recognising the dissonance. Then, by seeking truth — however uncomfortable — and using it to make conscious, courageous decisions.

Start by-

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Do You?

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Do You?

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Do you? 

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