Arkite Alerts Archive

See what he called before the world caught up.

For the past three years, Gold-level subscribers have had access to David's insights back to June 2023. As of today, that archive opens all the way back to July 2020 — over a thousand additional days of forecasts, warnings, and analysis, now yours to explore in full.

This isn't just "more content." It's the paper trail. Read these Murrinations in order, and you can watch David call the shape of the next five years before almost anyone else was willing to say it out loud. 

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Here are some insights now available to Gold-level subscribers:

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Russia — the warning NATO was too slow to hear
In August 2020, David warned that Britain and the West had "severely underestimated Putin," pointing to the UK's own Russia Report as evidence of how exposed Western institutions already were to subversion. This was eighteen months before the invasion of Ukraine.

Time to Wake Up To The Threat of Russian Power Part 1 →

China — the strategic mind the West still doesn't understand
That same August, David went back to Sun Tzu to explain why China's rise was never just economic or military — it was strategic, rooted in centuries of thought the West has never taken the time to study. Five years on, that gap in understanding is still the story.

Sun Tzu and The Art of War Part 1: The Chinese Perspective →

Britain — the defence review nobody wanted to write
By September 2020, David was laying out his second Strategic Defence Review, tracing the failure back to 2015 — a political class with almost no military experience, paired with a highly politicised military leadership, leaving national security dangerously exposed.

Now Or Never: The Global Forecaster 2020 Strategic Defence Review →

America — the decline that started before Trump
By November 2020, David was tracing America's leadership crisis back to the Clinton era — arguing it was a long structural decline, not a single administration's failure, and using his Five Phase Life Cycle model to map what would come next.

Western Leadership Part 1: The Crisis Of American Leadership →

Four warnings. One thread. Read together, they show the pattern David has been tracking for years — and why his forecasts keep arriving ahead of the headlines, not after them.

Explore the full 2020–2023 archive →

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Listen Now

Geopolitical forecaster and strategist David Murrin joins Francis Gorman to argue that the world isn't experiencing ordinary volatility it's in the middle of a deep, structural transition between great powers. Drawing on his "Five Stages of Empire" framework, David lays out why he believes America's decline began after 9/11, why China is rising into the vacuum, and why he sees the next decade as a period of unavoidable escalation. The conversation ranges across the war in Ukraine, the Iran nuclear question, the battle for the Pacific, the hollowing-out of Western military capability, and the subtler war being fought through economics, infiltration, and influence. It closes on Ireland's exposure as a neutral state and David's blunt verdict that there is "nowhere to hide."

Key Takeaways

• David's "Five Stages of Empire" model frames how nations regionalise, fight a civil war, expand, peak, and decline and where he places the West today.
• His view that American power entered structural decline after 9/11, with China rising to fill the vacuum.
• The concept of "strategic compression" why rising powers are forced to act not when they choose, but when the window around them starts to close.
• Why he sees Ukraine and Iran as conflicts enabled and shaped by China, used as testing grounds for systems and tactics.
• His argument that Western societies are being degraded from within through long-running influence operations targeting domestic politics.
• A stark assessment of UK military readiness, and why he believes adaptability not hardware alone decides who survives modern conflict.
• What all of this means for a small, neutral, strategically significant state like Ireland.

Soundbites

• "Nature absolutely abhors a vacuum. It hates it."
• "It's as if we're playing draughts and the Chinese are playing three-dimensional chess."
• "The timing of hegemonic conflicts is never at the choosing of the hegemon."
• "There are no neutral countries in its story, so there are no places to hide."
• "Stand up and be counted."

Listen Now

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Watch Now

Is the world entering a new era of geopolitical conflict, market instability and leadership pressure? In this powerful conversation, David Murrin explains how history, empire cycles, China, America, AI and human behaviour may shape the next decade.

David Murrin is a globally respected forecaster, investor, strategist and author whose work connects geopolitics, financial markets, war, leadership, collective psychology and the future of civilisation.

In this episode of The King Dems Podcast and Diary Of A CFO, Ademola Odewade sits down with David Murrin for a deeply urgent conversation on the decline of the West, the rise of China, the risk of wider global conflict, the future of AI, the psychology of markets and what business leaders must prepare for now.

This is not just a geopolitical conversation.

It is a leadership warning.

It is a market reality check.

It is a strategic briefing for founders, executives, investors and decision makers who want to understand the forces shaping the future before the future arrives.

Key Insights:

• Why David Murrin believes history moves in repeating cycles that most leaders fail to understand
• How collective human behaviour shapes markets, nations, war and leadership decisions
• Why the decline of the West and rise of China may define the next decade
• What entrepreneurs and business leaders must understand about geopolitical risk
• Why trade interdependence does not always prevent conflict between nations
• How market behaviour reveals emotional patterns long before most people notice reality changing
• Why leadership requires self-awareness, responsibility, courage and service to others
• How AI could transform war, business, productivity and civilisation
• Why business leaders must rethink debt, markets, resilience and strategic positioning
• Why understanding history may be one of the most important leadership advantages of our time

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David Murrin joined me this week for one of the most thought-provoking LCI LIVE sessions we've held to date. I’ve had heaps of positive feedback from those who attended – from beginning to end, it was a fascinating session.

We were able to answer all questions that were submitted, and also took questions live during the event. The recording additionally features a brief cameo appearance from Andrew Pancholi, who joined the session from his home in London.

As always, David didn't hold back. He is one of the most intelligent men I've met. One of the reasons I enjoy interviewing him is that it doesn't seem to matter what question you throw his way, he almost always has an informed, well-considered answer. Whether you agree with him or not, his ability to connect ideas and think several steps ahead is genuinely impressive.

During the discussion, David argued that the world is already in the early stages of what he considers World War III – not a conventional conflict, but a long-duration struggle between major powers that he believes will peak around 2030. He explained why this conflict is fundamentally inflationary, why bond yields could move far higher than most investors expect, and why he believes governments across the West have largely lost control of their debt dynamics.

We also explored China's growing military and shipbuilding capability, the implications for Australia and New Zealand, whether Taiwan remains the flashpoint everyone assumes it is, and why David believes the strategic landscape is becoming increasingly dangerous for anyone living in Australia and New Zealand. Where can you hide? That question is one that came up repeatedly. David’s answer – look in the mirror. If you want to understand what he meant by that – you’ll have to tune in to the recording!

For investors, David outlined where he would – and would not – place capital as we move toward the latter part of this decade. He discussed commodities, energy, gold and silver, why he remains sceptical of many mainstream equity markets, and why he believes inflation has much further to run. The conversation also ventured into some unexpected territory. David shared his thoughts on entropy and historical cycles, whether human civilisation is largely governed by repeating patterns, and even answered a question on the most contrarian investment thesis he can imagine – a response that surprised everyone in attendance, “we are not alone” –  I’ll get David back to investigate that at a later date.

Whether you agree with David's conclusions or not, this was a fascinating discussion covering geopolitics, war cycles, inflation, commodities, investing and the future trajectory of the global economy.

Watch Now

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Yesterday, I went to see the film Disclosure.

There is absolutely no doubt that Steven Spielberg is one of the great filmmakers of our time.

His first major film on the UFO phenomenon—now more commonly referred to as UAPs (Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena)—Close Encounters of the Third Kind, was a huge success when it was released. What few people realise is that elements of the story were reportedly inspired by events associated with Holloman Air Force Base UFO landing. The story is most commonly dated to 1964 at Holloman Air Force Base. According to the UAP legend,  three disc-shaped craft approached the base, one landed, and non-human entities allegedly met with military and intelligence personnel.

His latest offering is equally relevant to the UAP/USO topic, at a time when the drive for NHI disclosure has moved from the fringe into mainstream political discussion in Congress and the White House. The DOW's release of previously classified files on UAPs has been formally mandated by the Trump administration (we argue, with distraction in mind). Whilst progress appears frustratingly slow to those who closely follow the subject and are aware of teh immense body of clear evidence, there can be no doubt that we are in a soft disclosure process that will inevitably lead to a big reveal sooner than many realise.

Disclosure Day draws on witness testimony and evidence provided by a growing number of whistleblowers; Spielberg's latest film is far more than a science-fiction fantasy. It reflects many of the themes and questions now emerging from official investigations and public testimony.

In the process, it tackles what may prove to be the defining question of the twenty-first century: the reality that humanity is not alone and that we are moving steadily towards full disclosure of that complex reality. We would even go further and suggest that this film is part of a long, tightly controlled process to prepare society for the real day of disclosure.

If you find the UAP/NHI topic difficult to grasp, we recommend signing up for Murrinations Gold and reading our extensive series on the subject, accompanied by a wealth of predictive strings that make our work one of the best accessible sources of knowledge on the UAP and NHI topic. Over some twenty-three Murrinations,  we examine the evidence, the scientific arguments, and the growing body of high-quality military and intelligence testimony suggesting this phenomenon is both real and eminently worthy of serious study.

If you prefer not to have your assumptions challenged, then do not be surprised when reality suddenly intrudes upon them.

But if you are curious, sign up for Murrinations and learn more. The evidence may challenge what you think you know about our place in the universe.

Can you afford not to know?

Subscribe Now To Murrinations Gold

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Can you afford not to know?

Subscribe Now To Murrinations Gold

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In our recent Murrination Starmer 31: His Wilful  Destruction of the Royal Navy would Make Nelson Turn In His Grave, we warn that Starmer and his Labour Government are doing what our enemies have failed to achieve since the Dutch raided the Medway in June 1667, during the Second Anglo-Dutch War (1665–1667). When a Dutch fleet commanded by Lieutenant-Admiral Michiel de Ruyter sailed up the Thames Estuary and into the River Medway, attacking England's principal naval anchorage at Chatham.

Because Starmer is bringing a once-proud and strong British nation to its knees as our enemies of China, Russia and Iran gather their forces against us to do us most grievous harm.

Introduction

Today Britain faces the worst maritime threat it has faced for decades. From the blatant acts of hostility of Putin's Northern fleet, as we outlined in 

• The Battle for Ukraine 88: Putin's Northern Submarine Fleet Leverage and The Hidden Front of WW3 Part 1
• Putin's Northern Submarine Fleet and The Hidden Front of WW3 Part 2-A Major RN Counter Sub Operation

Combined with the war in the Gulf and the blockade of the Strait and the Red Sea, which constitutes acts of war against the UK's economic prosperity, as we have outlined in

• Iran's War on Israel and America 24:The Battle for the Gulf and Strait of Hormuz -Part I Iran's A2/D2 Strategy
• Iran's War on Israel and America 26:The Battle for the Gulf and Strait of Hormuz -Part II The USN Counter A2/AD Strategy
• Iran's War on Israel and America 27: Trump Faces A Catastrophic Defeat If he leaves the Strait in Iranian Hands.
• Iran's War on Israel and America 25:Trump is Caught In An Iranian Bear Trap

Taken together, it is clear that Britain is now facing its most serious defence crisis since the start of the Second World War. This time, however, the threat is not solely the result of hostile actions by our enemies, whether Nazi Germany and Japan in the past or Russia and China today. Rather, it is a crisis of our own making which has been accelerated by Starmers willful destruction of the UK's defences

In our Murrination series 

• Defenceless Britain-Who is responsible? Part 1: Missed Signs
• Defenceless Britain-Who is responsible? Part 2: Starmer's Betrayal Exposed by War with Iran

We explained how decades of wilful neglect have hollowed out what was once one of the world's most respected military powers and who was/is responsible for this lamentable catastrophe unfolding before our eyes.

Much of the responsibility lies with successive Conservative governments, which repeatedly delayed difficult decisions, cut force levels and underfunded defence as outlined in Sunak 15; PM has Wilfully Made the UK Defenceless

Yet the situation has worsened manyfold under the destructive leadership of Starmer's Labour Government, which, while loving to blame the Conservatives, is clearly unwilling to rectify the problem and provide the Armed Forces with the resources required to rapidly rebuild and to once more effectively deter aggression and defend Britain's interests.

Since taking office, Starmer and his Labour Party have accelerated the pattern of delay and underinvestment to new disastrous levels. The new  Defence Investment Plan (DIP), which will be announced tomorrow, and we fear Stamer will continue this dangerous trend of the willful destruction of the Royal Navy

Labour Ministers have relied on blatant lies and accounting tricks, counting future spending commitments as present expenditure and claiming to be delivering the largest increase in defence spending for a generation. However, the electorate increasingly sees through such claims. While government spending on social programmes continues to rise, Britain's military capabilities continue to decline. Starmers Britain 21; SDR 2025: Britain Remains Defenceless as It Prepares for Conflict at a Glacial Pace.

If you are concerned by the fate of the Royal Navy, and wish to make your voice heard Sign this petition

The next question is, can you afford not to know what comes next as the War in the Gulf Restarts?

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Well over three months after GF predicted that the pendulum was swinging in Ukraine’s favour, in our Murrination  WW3 106; The Battle For Ukraine 92; Russian Exhaustion, Desperation and Retreat articles like this have become commonplace in the Press.

8 June 2026, Ukraine is turning the tide against Putin. What happens next should terrify Europe

Moscow's forces are steadily ceding ground to Ukrainian advances as their logistics networks come under sustained attack. Russian conscripts are dying in their thousands as Ukrainian drones relentlessly target troop concentrations, supply depots, and transport routes far behind the front lines. At home, economic pressures are mounting. Rising prices, punitive taxation, and declining living standards are fuelling public discontent. At a recent meeting of senior economic officials in the Kremlin, Vladimir Putin reportedly acknowledged that Russia's GDP had contracted by almost 2 per cent in 2026. Behind closed doors, both the finance ministry and central bank warned of growing threats to economic stability. Finance Minister Anton Siluanov is said to have cautioned Putin that the country's fiscal position is deteriorating rapidly as Russia edges towards recession.

This reversal has not occurred by chance. Ukraine has quietly pursued a ruthless and highly effective twin-track strategy: systematically degrading Russia's military capability on the battlefield while simultaneously undermining the economic foundations that sustain the Kremlin's war effort.

Can you afford not to know what is coming next?

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As global geopolitical tensions continue to rise, the likelihood of a major international conflict—potentially World War III—is no longer speculative but increasingly probable.

Escalations in the Russia–Ukraine conflict, Iran–Israel-US ongoing war, and the US–China Pacific competition reflect a breakdown in diplomacy and a loss of deterrent power across the West.

NATO leaders are sounding the alarm, urging both governments and civilians to adopt a "whole-of-society" defence mindset.

While countries like Sweden and Finland are renewing civil defence efforts, the UK remains critically underprepared, lacking both effective missile defence systems and updated contingency plans.

Some governments are now reviving Cold War-era strategies such as the War Book, and households are being encouraged to build resilience against threats ranging from cyberattacks to energy supply disruptions.

In this context, proactive preparation—by both the state and individuals—is not alarmist, but necessary.

So, have you read Global Forecasters Series On  Family Resilience Preparations 1: Why Now?

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Global forecaster David Murrin is now available for speaking engagements and strategic briefings on the rapidly escalating wars in Ukraine and the Gulf, and their profound implications for the global economy and financial markets.

His analysis focuses on the emerging supply shock across energy and commodities, the inflationary consequences of prolonged geopolitical conflict, and the growing risk of a historic global bond bear market as governments confront rising military spending, fractured trade routes and structural inflation.

David provides a unique macro-geopolitical framework linking war, resources, debt and financial instability at a time of extraordinary accelerating global transition.

Engage David | David Murrin