Creating Actionable Strategies For The Future
Welcome to the archive of Arkite Alerts, Global Forecaster's free newsletter notifying subscribers of the latest news, podcasts, interviews, Global Trader performance reviews and more.
Arkite: the name derived from my Arkent Strategy to navigate, survive and thrive through the great shift.
In these challenging times, Gandalf’s wise words from The Fellowship of the Ring echo true, a quiet reminder to Frodo, bearing a huge burden and facing significant personal risk, that the meaning of our lives comes not from the times we’re born into, but from the choices we make within them.
“All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us.”
Further to our Amber warning on 22nd December (outlined if you scroll down below), we are now upgrading our Red Lightning warning level to RED.
China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has launched record-breaking military exercises encircling Taiwan, described as the largest and most expansive drills ever conducted around the island. These live-fire exercises span multiple maritime and air zones, with navigation warnings indicating an unprecedented geographic scope designed to simulate near-total operational encirclement.
Interestingly wording is different from previous exercises, Justice Mission is a warning to ‘external interference forces’, and includes ‘all dimensional deterrence outside the island chain’.
Strategically, this marks a significant escalation in coercive signalling. The drills go well beyond routine pressure and represent a large-scale operational rehearsal or a potential springboard for the opening of hostilities.
By staging the most extensive exercises to date, the PLA appears to be practising joint blockade enforcement, integrated command-and-control, missile and artillery coordination, and rapid force concentration — all core elements of a Taiwan contingency — while simultaneously normalising sustained, high-intensity military activity around the island.
From a regional security perspective, the sheer scale of these exercises sharply increases the risk of crisis instability and miscalculation. As China continues to push the boundaries of military pressure, Taiwan, the United States, and regional allies face shrinking margins for error. The concern is clear: repeated and ever-larger drills lower the threshold for escalation in the Taiwan Strait.
Adding to the gravity of the situation, Chinese state media has released satellite imagery of Taiwanese airbases and military sites under the title: “How could you ever attempt independence.” This messaging removes any remaining ambiguity regarding intent.
For those who wish to understand just how dangerous this moment has become and why we have issued a RED Warning, we strongly encourage you to read the following-
We note that since the publication of this article, two additional factors have emerged that materially increase Chinese Strategic compression:
We explain how China could justify its attack on Taiwan using Article 53
This is an extended Murrination Report on how we see the Battle for Taiwan and the Western Pacific unfolding
So if you do not wish to be in the dark over this next phase of the unfolding of WW3
As we gather with family and friends this Christmas, surrounded by warmth, light, and the comfort of peace, we must spare a moment for those who have none of these things. For on Europe’s eastern doorstep, as yet another winter descends, Ukraine continues to fight—abandoned, under-resourced, and increasingly alone—shielding the cowardly West from Putin’s imperial war.
While Trump betrays Ukraine and its allies in favour of Putin, European leaders drift, delay, and distract themselves with relatively trivial domestic theatrics.
Meanwhile, Ukraine endures the brutal reality of a conflict that shows no sign of pausing for the holidays.
In a grotesque mockery of the Christmas season, Putin has intensified his assault on civilians. Russian missiles and drones now systematically target Ukraine’s power grid, plunging entire cities into freezing darkness as Siberian winds sweep across the country. This is a deliberate war strategy—one Putin has honed before in Syria, where civilian suffering was weaponised to keep a dictator in power long after legitimacy had crumbled.
The truth is stark: Europe is now locked in a Shadow war with Russia, and is the last line of defence capable of keeping Putin’s conquest contained where it stands.
If Ukraine survives as a sovereign state, it will be because Europeans choose to act decisively and now. After all, Washington under Trump will not rescue them, and Kyiv cannot hold indefinitely without far greater, meaningful militray support.
Yet even now, the warblind cling to the fantasy that Putin will stop at Ukraine. However, Putin's History, written in blood and betrayal, shows otherwise. Russia reneged on the Budapest Memorandum. Putin lied openly about his intentions before the 2022 invasion. To believe he will halt voluntarily is not diplomacy—it is self-deception and a clear recipe for self-destruction.
So as we celebrate Christmas, the question is not what Ukraine owes us for its support, but what we owe Ukraine for its sacrifice.
At a minimum, Europe must deploy a Sky Shield, which the Global Forecaster has been advocating for over the western half of Ukraine, to help protect Ukrainian civilians.
Simultaneously, we must resolve that strengthening Ukrainian air defence is not an escalation; it is a NATO strategic imperative and a humanitarian obligation. NATO, even without US support, has the systems and fighter aircraft to defeat the Russian air forces if push comes to shove.
But what we need more than anything is the manifestation of a new iron political will in the West—driven by the fear that if we do not stop Putin in Ukarine the European continent will be engulfed in a decade-long war - again.
Why has there been no serious effort to establish protected airspace over vital civilian infrastructure this winter, because no one dares to stand up to Putin?
But Putin respects only strength and exploits European weakness to feed his narrative of victory.
When the West hesitates, he advances. But faced with intention and force, he will back down like all bullies when outmatched.
And so, as weary Ukrainian soldiers stand guard through freezing nights and civilians shelter from nightly bombardments, Europe risks looking away for Christmas and 2026
But war observes no holidays and spreads like a virus.
That leaves Europe with only a single choice.
Either Europe finds its courage and acts, or it sinks further into moral and strategic decay, leading to our defeat and subjugation by Putin and his Autocratic Allies.
Protecting civilians, keeping the lights on, defending the innocent from terror—these are not acts of warmongering. They are acts of leadership, of conscience, of the civilisation Christmas was created to guide us towards.
If Ukraine falls, Europe will be next. And history will record that once again, tyranny advanced because democracies hesitated.
This Christmas, let us refuse to look away.
Let us resolve to increase our military and financial support for Ukraine dramatically in 2026, and arm ourselves to be able to defend them and ourselves from the danger spearheading from the East.
We, as Europeans, must find our collective courage and deliver unwavering support with urgency, so that next Christmas, Ukrainians may celebrate not in the cold and darkness to the sound of explosions, but in peace—and in freedom.
Over recent weeks in our Murrinations, we have warned that China is now experiencing acute strategic compression from Japan and its regional neighbours, increasing the likelihood that Beijing could initiate an offensive conventional war out to the third island chain that we have named our Red Lightning scenario after my 2021 book.
We have outlined how the CCP has constructed a casus belli around Article 53 to go to war with Japan—another clear warning indicator.
Only yesterday, China declared it would take “forceful measures” in response to the newly approved U.S. arms-sales package to Taiwan, condemning the decision as a serious violation of the One China principle and interference in its internal affairs.
Beijing stated that the sale undermines regional stability and vowed to take retaliatory measures to defend its sovereignty and security interests.
As we have explained, the PLA Rocket Force has been configured for a cold-start posture, meaning that the West should not expect meaningful warning of an attack.
This raises the question: when might such a war begin?
Historically, aggressors choose moments of maximum advantage and minimum vigilance. The Yom Kippur War erupted on a religious holiday, Hamas struck Israel on 7 October during a Jewish festival, and Pearl Harbour was attacked on a Sunday.
Similarly, for the PLAN, the Christmas and New Year period presents a similarly vulnerable window when Western attention, staffing, and readiness are typically reduced.
Recognising that for this specific event Global Forecaster framework can identify only risk periods, not precise predictions, our systemic warning indicators would classify the upcoming holiday period as amber—a heightened danger phase requiring increased vigilance.
If you wish to learn more about our extensive strategic analysis on the extraordinary risks of conventional war in the Asian basin, then.
In the early summer of 2020, having picked the negative low of oil prices that marked the commencement of the C-wave of the current K-wave cycle, we warned that the long-standing pattern of declining interest rates was about to reverse. We anticipated a decade-duration rise that would push long-end rates above 16 percent by 2030. For the ill-informed, failing to recognise or prepare for such an interest paradigm shift in an over-indebted world would have created untold economic pain.
Thus, this was one of our market predictions that intersected with real-time geopolitical impacts no one could afford to miss, and its implications were—and remain—immense.
Over the past two years, the surge in long-end rates briefly paused, leading many to forget what the first stage of this new Bond bear market felt like.
However, the second phase of the great bear market is approaching.
To understand what comes next and how it will impact markets, our politics and you-
Strategic Compression describes the critical moment when a rising power’s expansion collides with the resistance of established states, creating a tightening strategic environment that both constrains its ambitions and accelerates its willingness to use force. As rival empires, regional powers, and defensive coalitions push back, the rising state’s external room for manoeuvre shrinks at the same time internal pressures—economic strain, demographic stress, or declining legitimacy—intensify. This dual squeeze produces a dangerous “now-or-never” psychology in which leaders conclude that peaceful pathways are closing and that delay will worsen their strategic position.
Historically, such compression has been a powerful trigger of hegemonic wars: states do not lash out at the height of their strength, but rather when they fear their window of opportunity is about to close, prompting bold, risky attempts to break containment. Understanding this dynamic is therefore essential for predicting not only why wars occur, but when. In the context of China’s rise, Strategic Compression 2.0 provides the framework for identifying the point at which Xi Jinping—facing tightening geopolitical constraints and growing internal pressures—may choose to initiate a “breakout war” in the Asian basin.
By analysing China through this lens and mapping the dynamics of Strategic Compression onto the 108–112-year hegemonic war cycle, we can more accurately anticipate the timing and conditions that could trigger Beijing’s shift from competition to kinetic conflict.
Curiosity is the single greatest divider between those who evolve and those who decay.
It is the spark that compels individuals and societies to question assumptions, explore the unknown, and constantly recalibrate in a changing world.
The curious remain dynamic—absorbing new information, adapting their thinking, and developing capabilities that keep them relevant.
Those who lack curiosity, by contrast, become rigid, complacent, and blind to emerging threats and opportunities.
Over time, this stagnation turns into atrophy: skills fade, awareness narrows, and the ability to pivot disappears.
In an era defined by rapid technological, geopolitical and societal upheaval, curiosity is no longer a luxury—it is the foundational trait that determines whether one survives, thrives, or is left behind.
Dear Arkite,
Watch my latest interview on Why Geopolitical Awareness Matters to David Murrin, Military and Financial Forecaster:
Olivia interviews David Murrin, a geopolitical and financial forecaster. Murrin discusses the cyclical nature of empires, asserting that the western world, particularly the United States, is in decline while China rises in power—leading towards inevitable conflict. He emphasizes the importance of recognizing these cycles, addressing political and economic dissonance, and urgently waking up to imminent threats.
In the Matters/Not Matters speed round, they discuss topics like military strategy, cryptocurrency, artificial intelligence, and the role of social media. Murrin concludes by urging listeners to educate themselves and actively engage in discussions that shape the future of democracy and freedom.
00:21 The Cycles of Empires and Current Geopolitical Climate
03:08 America's Decline and Global Implications
06:13 Call to Action: Awakening the West
09:21 Historical Context and Lessons from Empires
12:51 Speed Round: Matters/Not Matters
Curiosity is the single greatest divider between those who evolve and those who decay.
It is the spark that compels individuals and societies to question assumptions, explore the unknown, and constantly recalibrate in a changing world.
The curious remain dynamic—absorbing new information, adapting their thinking, and developing capabilities that keep them relevant.
Those who lack curiosity, by contrast, become rigid, complacent, and blind to emerging threats and opportunities.
Over time, this stagnation turns into atrophy: skills fade, awareness narrows, and the ability to pivot disappears.
In an era defined by rapid technological, geopolitical and societal upheaval, curiosity is no longer a luxury—it is the foundational trait that determines whether one survives, thrives, or is left behind.
According to Modern Diplomacy, recent satellite imagery and open-source monitoring indicate that the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) and the China Coast Guard have deployed an expanding flotilla — dozens of ships and cutters — across multiple maritime zones, including the East China Sea, the South China Sea, and areas near Taiwan and Okinawa. The report describes the mobilisation as “the largest coordinated maritime show of force in the region thus far,” combining naval warships, logistics vessels, maritime-militia groups and paramilitary cutters.
Strategically, this deployment reflects a major shift in how China uses maritime power: rather than isolated drills or patrols, Beijing now appears to favour a persistent, simultaneous multi-theatre presence — a maritime equivalent of grey-zone saturation that tests adversary surveillance, challenges claims of sovereignty, and erodes the resilience of contested sea areas. For regional states like Japan, Taiwan, and the Philippines, the massing increases pressure on national coast guards and navies, complicates freedom-of-navigation operations, and heightens the risk of accidental escalation. For the wider Indo-Pacific security architecture, the show-of-force acts as a signal that China is ready to operationalise its A2/AD (anti-access/area-denial) toolbox at scale — and that future crises may begin with overwhelming maritime presence rather than traditional naval battles.
Read More About The Building Chinese Japanese Crisis
Red Peril 52:A Major Escalation in Japan–China Tensions
Red Peril 43; CCP Preparations For The T-Day Invasion
I aim to provide early warnings of geopolitical and economic shifts, allowing leaders and the public to anticipate and navigate critical inflection points.
Historical patterns leading to WW1 and WW2 and our unique behavioural models all point to the fact WW3 has already started!
Putin launched the invasion of Ukraine, believing it would restore Russia’s stature as a great power. Instead, it has accelerated a geopolitical reversal unprecedented in modern Russian history; the steady transfer of Russia’s sovereignty, resources and strategic autonomy into China’s hands.
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