Arkite Alerts Archive

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Dear Arkite,

Britain is in the last phase of   The Most Delusional Election In British History without a single party leader even raising the topic of war in what appears to be blissful ignorance. Such that we have to ask  Can Britain Awake From Its Slumber?

Meanwhile, in America, as explained in Dimensions of American Decline 7, Biden's Weakness is Inviting escalation of its ongoing wars with Russia and now North Korea, and Iran.

Whilst Europe is moving to the Ultra-Right, whose policies potentially support the rise of autocracy.The Western Shift To The Far Right is Epitomised by the New 4th French Revolution

Consequently, we are now warning that the dark angry storm clouds are overhead in the next stage of escalation into a fully blown WW3. A major escalation is now potentially only weeks away. 

Because in every theater of conflict with the Axis of Autocracy, the situation is worsening.

• Iran’s War with Israel After Gaza The IDF Will Next Have to Take On Hezbollah and Iran and Iran’s Imminent Nuclear Breakout and the American Response
• The War in Ukraine is Escalating from a shadow war to an overt war between NATO and Russia. Strategic Bombing Campaigns and The Pendulum Is Swinging Back in Ukraine's Favour. Whilst North Korean combat troops are arriving in Ukraine to dig tunnels.
• China; The tensions over the Scarborough Shoal demonstrate the CCP's intentions supporting   Ten Reasons Why Xi Will Go To War In 2024

For those who follow our work at a distance, can you afford to ignore and understand our accurate predictions, which will allow you to be more aware and prepared?

Now would be a good time to shift up a gear and subscribe to Murrinations and to take a 3-month trial of our Gold Membership to get up to speed on what is coming down the track.

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Dear Arkite,

Here's my interview on CNBC Worldwide Exchange from 2010 discussing my book Breaking The Code of History, the Five Stages of Empire, the Fall of the US Empire and loss of its power to the Next Hegemonic Challenger China:

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Fall of American Empire "The real disaster is not to recognise where America is, to continue to be unconscious over the collapse of its power base and that only accelerates the loss of power… the expansion of the Chinese Navy and aggression in the South China Sea... the rise of the Renminbi currency...” Watch Now!

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Watch Now!

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Dear Arkite,

I thought I'd share this article by Daniel Fisher, senior editor at Forbes Magazine from 2011. It highlights some of my predictions from my book Breaking the Code of History written over 20 years ago:

“I’m not joking!” David Murrin says, staring across a table at the Waldorf-Astoria Hotel as he explains why the U.S. is doomed to economic and military decline. “That is not my attitude at all.”

It’s easy to get confused with Murrin, a geophysicist-turned global macro trader who seems to delight in thinking up ways to profit from the decline of the West. Murrin’s U.K. fund, Emergent Asset Management, has bought tens of thousands of acres of African farmland and made aggressive currency bets against the U.S. dollar, in the belief that the industrialized nations will lose the coming war with China for economic and military supremacy.

Murrin has positioned himself to make money on the decline, but he wants everybody to know he doesn’t like it. He speaks quickly, his ideas flowing out in bursts like the commands of the currency trader he once was. He’s even written a book, “Breaking the Code of History,” which explains how the U.S.-led Western empire is following a well-trod path of imperial overreach and decline.

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Murrin’s grand theory revolves around the global fight over commodities. Murrin’s a believer in the Kondratieff wave, a roughly 25-year cycle in which populations that are growing both in number and in wealth make increasingly aggressive demands on a limited pool of commodities. That drives up the price and ultimately can lead to devastating wars.

Supercycle believers see patterns in world history that others might ignore. World War I? Germany’s fatal miscalculation that it could dominate England in the quest for resources to feed its growing, young population. The revolutions sweeping the Middle East? An assertive new generation trying to seize control of commodities – particularly oil – that are vital to the rest of the world.

In countries like Iran and Egypt, Murrin says, “you’re bulging at the seams and you need more resources.”

Behind it all is China, which is destined to become the world’s most powerful nation if it continues its current trajectory. There’s no sense in fighting this, Murrin says. “It’s relentless,” he says. The Chinese Navy may have one aircraft carrier to the U.S.’s 20, he says, but that balance will eventually flip. The same thing happened to the U.K. after it developed the Dreadnought, a speedy steel battleship that made the Royal Navy’s existing fleet obsolete. An economically superior Germany copied the design and matched the rebuilding U.K. navy ship for ship.

The falling dollar makes things worse, Murrin adds. When the U.S. economy was growing at a 1% real, or after-inflation rate and China was growing at 6%, both economies were reasonably healthy. Now China’s growing at 9% nominal, 4% real, and exporting its 5% inflation rate back to the U.S. to make for real growth of -1%. That’s stagflation, even if the U.S. refuses to admit it.

“As things start to go bad, you begin to fracture and argue,” Murrin says, perhaps describing the pitched civil war in the U.S. between taxpayers and public-sector unions. China, meanwhile, has a centralized government that may ultimately prove less resilient than a democracy, but is just the ticket during an empire’s commodity-grabbing ascent. Think: Bismarck, Caesar.

The seemingly benign revolutions in the Middle East mark the beginning of the end of the U.S. empire, Murrin says. As a British subject, perhaps he’s a little too captivated by the parallels between the collapse of the Mubarek regime in Egypt and Britain’s failed attempt to maintain control of the Suez Canal some 60 years before. Mubarek’s defeat was “an utter catastrophe for the U.S.,” Murrin asserts, eliminating a vital ally and insuring Israel’s encirclement and defeat by the Arab nations.

Murrin sees a way out of this trap, but it isn’t palatable or even realistic for most Americans to consider. First, the U.S. must make peace with the fact that China will ultimately overpower it militarily. So this currency trader-turned global macro manager’s advice is to cooperate with the Chinese and invite them into the “global structures of power.”

Cede power to China? “You need to, or they’ll take it,” Murrin says.

Next: Default on the U.S. debt. As a country in the late stages of empire, the U.S. piled up more external debt than it can possibly repay. The costs imposed on its own citizens would stifle economic activity and hasten the military decline. “America has to choose to default, so it can do it on its own terms,” Murrin says.

That leads back to the trading strategy: Short the dollar. The greenback is already down 20% since Murrin predicted a 50% decline in the pages of Forbes two years ago and he says it’s headed lower, flight-to-safety upturns be damned. “It’s going to be oversold all the way down,” he says, chuckling.

A parallel bet is to go long the Euro. “It’s a piece of crap, as a concept, but it’s the only way to absorb the outflows from the dollar so it will go up.”

This post is part of an ongoing effort to identify the people, places, ideas, products and companies that are poised to become central to the global conversation over the next six to nine months. Click here to nominate your own “name.” The best will be featured in an upcoming issue of Forbes magazine.

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Daniel Fisher is a senior editor at Forbes, covering legal affairs, corporate finance, macroeconomics and the occasional sailing story.

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Dear Arkite,

Here's my latest podcast interview with Buddhist podcaster Mahabodhi including discussions on my book Breaking the Code of History, my Five Stages of Empire theory, Kondratiev Waves, China's rise and WW3:

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In today's episode Buddhist podcaster Mahabodhi interviews David Murrin global forecaster, investment advisor and author. In 2010 David published Breaking the Code of History, building on the work of the Russian economist Nikolai Kondratiev.

Kondratiev noticed how capitalist economies experienced long-term economic cycles in agricultural commodity and copper prices, lasting about 54-56 years, later termed Kondratiev or long waves. Such cycles, indicated by periods of evolution and self-correction, were brought about by technological innovation that results in a long period of prosperity. Economists have identified the following Kondratiev Waves and their associated technological advances.

1. The first coincided with the invention of the steam engine, which particularly benefitted Great Britain and its advance to empire and ran from 1780 to 1830.
2. The second cycle arose because of the steel industry and the spread of railroads that ran from 1830 to 1880.
3. The third cycle, which ran from 1880 to 1930, resulted from electrification and innovation in the chemical industry, which benefitted the German Empire.
4. The fourth cycle was fueled by autos and petrochemicals and lasted from 1930 to 1970.
5. The fifth cycle was based on advanced manufacturing and information technology and began in 1970 and ran through the present and flows into quantum computing and AI, benefiting China. 

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Kondratiev's views were anathema to Josef Stalin, because they suggested that capitalist nations were not on an inevitable path to destruction; he ended up in the Gulag in Siberia and was shot by a firing squad in 1938. (https://www.investopedia.com/terms/k/...)

David trained as a physicist then worked in Wall Street. After 9/11 he developed the theory that every empire passes through five stages, that certain types of war correlate with those stages, and that major wars usually manifest just before peaks in the Kondratiev cycle. As a result he thinks, unfortunately, that we are already in World War Three and he offers how we might best respond to the fact.

Watch Now!

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Dear Arkite,

Here's my talk on Gargour's Global Gaze running you through how we got to where we are now, the reasons behind the current state of play and what's next:

Guest speaker David Murrin, on Gargour's Global Gaze, discusses political and economic events in 'Are We At War?". Forecasts for Gold, Bitcoin, Stocks, Bonds and a deep dive on China and the upcoming conflict in the Middle East.

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Watch Now!

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Dear Arkite,

How do we avoid having to do it all over again? 

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Today’s In our Arkite Alert and in combienation with Bill Blain's epic  Morning Porridge we offer something different and a wee bit special – it’s a joint piece related to D-Day, where the West stands today and what the UK must do to defend itself. In Bills words ''I’ve written it jointly with my friend David Murrin, a man who understands the flow of history and the realities of defence better than anyone else in this country. '' 

Let me kick off our story with some history

There is old chap I know in our village. During the war he was too young for the forces, but as a 14 year old living on the River Hamble, he had a vital job in the wartime economy, fighting tooth and nail for freedom and the liberation of Europe from Nazi tyranny. Each day he skippered a bowser up and down the river, delivering fresh water to the hundreds of vessels moored on the river. From HMS Cricket, the shore establishment where Royal Marines were trained to use landing craft, to the mouth of the river he got to know the crews. He knew the Americans who’d built a quayside from the bombed-out rubble of Southampton a few miles to the North, the Royal Navy matelots sailing the boats and British Marine bootnecks manning the guns. They gave him chocolates and gum, and occasionally a tot of rum.

80 years ago he woke and looked out the window. Aside from the steady drone of aircraft overhead, it was quiet. The river was empty. All the boats had gone. It wasn’t until later that morning, when a smoke-trailing Spitfire with flack splatters across the underside landed on Hamble Airfield, the nearest “prang-patch” repair unit to the Normandy Beaches, that the village knew for sure the Invasion of Europe was underway.

Many villagers must have wondered. The night before they’d heard the sound of Bagpipes on the River. It was the music of the Commandos who’d been training in the Scottish Mountains for years before departing for France. Their commander, Shimi Frazer, better known as Lord Lovat of the Lovat Scouts, had ordered his personal piper, Bill Millan, to play them to war.

Millan recalled years later: “I had been playing to the troops waiting to board the landing craft as we went along the Hamble river, and then I put them back in the box. The Lord Lovat said, "You better get them out again because you can play us out of the Solent and into the Channel. You will be in the leading craft with me."

That night, as he played from the prow of the landing craft, the Lovat Scouts joined thousands of other boats to the East of the Isle of Wight bound for Sword Beach. The 3^rd Infantry Division’s first wave of the South Lancs and the East Yorks were supported by elements of Hobart’s Funnies, the 79^th Armoured Division of swimming tanks, flail mine clearers and crocodile flame throwers, the shock troops of the Commando Brigades and 177 Free French Marines. Millan played The Road To The Isles: 'They heard the pipes, and they were throwing their hats in the air and cheering,' he recalled.

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Lovat told him to disregard War Office orders not to wear kilts or bring bagpipes, “aye, that’s the English War Office, we’re Scots”. Millan landed in his kilt playing Highland Laddie. On hearing the roar of the Great Highland Pipes every Scot, Lancastrian and Yorkshireman on the beach rose as one, thundered up the sands, through the German lines and onwards. Lovat’s mission was to relieve the glider-borne Ox & Bucks who’d seized Pegasus Bridge – the first allied forces to assault France soon after midnight. As the Commandos arrived, the sounds of Blue Bonnets Over the Border could be heard for miles, right down the whole beach.

Many believe the sound of the pipes was the moment the success of the invasion became inevitable. In the hell that was the battle for Sword Beach the Germans chivalrously declined to shoot Millan, thinking he must be an escaped lunatic.

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Today, Millan’s statue looks over the beach and towards Juno, Gold, Bloody Omaha and Utah beaches, each with its own tales of Canadian, British and American heroics. I was privileged to meet Bill Millan’s son a few years ago when we sponsored The 100 Pipers march through Hamble in commemoration of Bill’s bravery that day. He told me his father was armed with nothing more than his Sgian-Dubh, the wee dagger tucked into our socks to frighten Englishmen with. Who needs a rifle when you have the pipes?

Operation Overlord, the D-Day invasion was the most complex and unsurpassed feat of military organisation. It was huge. It had mass. 5000 vessels, 133,000 troops landed on day one, and 10,300 casualties.  The Battles for Normandy, France, the Low Countries and crossing the Rhine into Germany required a million and a half troops to be trained, supplied and armed, thousands of aircraft to be loaded and painted with invasion stripes, ships’ magazines to be filled and bunkered, landing craft to be crammed with tanks and men, the concrete Mulberry Harbours to be ready and the Pluto oil-pipeline coiled to lay across the channel in days. It was a momentous and huge operation.

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Today the world is a very different place. In his writings on “Breaking the Code of History”, David Murrin has seen how new hegemonic struggles seem to erupt every 112 years of so. This one is bang on time. On one hand we have the alliance of Western Democracies. On the other we have the Axis of autocracy centred around China. Under Putin Russia has become a wartime economy dedicated to the leader’s dream of restoring his version of Russian historical lands. In Iran, the ayatollahs covet dominance across the Muslim world. 

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To avoid war you need to be prepared to fight and win it. Yet, the sad reality is World War 3 is already underway – triggered in Ukraine. Yet many in the West seem in blithe denial of the reality and unaware of historical precedent – appeasement does not work. 

At the end of the Cold War, when the Berlin Wall came down, the UK armed forces numbered 312,000 men. Defence spending was 4.09% of GDP – even after decades of defence cuts. Today the UK’s defence capability is perilously thin. Much of our kit is being canabilised to keep others functional. Our airspace is defended by a few elderly Typhoon fighters. The navy’s anti-submarine capabilities are limited to just three on-call escorts. A single attack sub annoys the Russians. Our aircraft carriers – let’s not go there. The Army has been hollowed out to such an extent its single deployable brigade would struggle after just a few days at a high operation pitch. Our recruitment is a shambolic mess.

Yet, the British Armed forces remain among the most professional in Nato sustained by our martial traditions and the ancestral muscle memory of the unsurpassed British Army of 1918 that ended the trench stalemate and destroyed the German Army. The RAF that won the Battle of Britain. The Royal Navy that won the Battle of the Atlantic, and kept the supply lines to Russia open. The Forgotten 15^th Army that fought the largest single battle against the Japanese at Kohima and whipped them – a fact Americans are blithely unaware of. Or the 5 battalions that took on the Argies might and swept them from the Falklands. Past glories are not a guarantee of future victory – but British Armed forces have form.

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Already critical lessons have been picked up from Ukraine. The first we already knew – that lateral-thinking, highly motivated soldiers with the ability to make swift and effective tactical decisions can smash the Soviet mindset, nullifying their command and control on the battlefield – but it has become a World War 1 stalemate costly in terms of leaders and troops. New simple tech, like drones, has changed battlefield economics. UK forces understand the asymmetric nature of modern war and cyber security – but again it's costly. 

What will the UK have to do to win a future war, and hence dissuade Putin and his successors?

David reckons there are a host of factors to be addressed.

• We need to sort out the political leadership of the West – it’s not about how little or how much we spend on defence, but how well we spend and direct defence. There is precious little awareness of defence on the front benches today. 
• Trump’s threat to pull the Yanks from Nato must be taken seriously – and Europe become its own defender. 600 million moderately prosperous Europeans vs 140 million poor Russians may not seem a fair fight – but what have they got to lose, and what does it matter to China how much they do? Russia breaking itself in Europe opens the door to China in Siberia.
• The continued focus on initiative and lateral-thinking at all-ranks levels must be encouraged. The market improvement in Russian fighting capabilities in recent months is easy to explain – they are learning.
• The UK needs a missile shield – something comparable to Israel - the modern equivalent of Fighter Command in 1939. We need Patriot-type systems, backed by Sky Sabre and investment into new lazer tech.
• Defence procurement remains a perennial problem. For instance, the RAF is short AWACs radar control – having retired the old ones to save money before the new ones arrived!
• All three services need to upgrade the lethality of their platforms in terms of enhance air defences. The Royal Navy’s Daring Class destroyers have superb radars, but cost cuts meant they aren’t fitted with state-of-the-art missiles and offensive systems. This needs to be addressed immediately.
• The Navy’s carriers have proved a bad compromise – fitted without catapults to save money, but only capable of operation the less effective VSTOL F-35 Bs, and not the cheaper F-18s and the new effective drones coming on line. It hasn’t helped that Big Lizzy and The POW are not reliable.

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However, the main issue is Mass. To make clear to Putin that Europe is serious about defence, we need to put boots on the ground, ships on the sea and planes and drones in the air.

• It’s time to bulk up the navy and refit last generation equipment ahead of new kit being designed – that means recommissioning older frigates, amphibious warfare ships and attack submarines.
• We need to strengthen the RAF – train more pilots swiftly and give them more and better Typhoons and F-35s (even if Trump might decide to “switch them off”).
• It’s time to put the UK’s defence industry on a wartime footing – as happened in the race to rearm from 1938 onwards. New equipment and ammunition is critical. The economy would receive a substantial boost if we build new ships using the latest robo-tech. 
• Take back control of armed services recruitment from Circo (hopeless), and have experienced soldiers, airmen and sailors run the process.
• Focus on innovating new warfighting paradigm shifts in weapons and tactics to maximise the effectiveness of reconstituted mass.
• Build a capability for the UK to space launch its own satellites – don’t assume Elon Musk is on our side.
• Secure vital resources and build stockpiles of strategic materials.

Finally, a renewed focus on defence needs to involve the whole nation. While Rishi Sunak’s half-cocked conscription plan was yet another embarrassment, the need for a National Resilience Plan to ensure the UK can cope with war and its consequences is a whole population exercise. That’s something every Brit should get used to.

Bill Blain & David Murrin

Dear Arkite,

Watch my latest interview 'War Equals Massive Inflation' on Palisades Gold Radio:

"In this Palisades interview, Tom Bodrovics welcomes back hosts global forecaster David Murrin to delve into the differences between lateral and linear thinking in the context of current world conflicts. Murrin posits that empires cycle through phases of thinking, with laterals leading initially and linears taking control as empires mature. He attributes the current global climate to an unprecedented level of linear thinking due to sophisticated money printing over the past two decades, which has left societies inflexible to dynamic threats.

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Murrin further discusses geopolitical implications, particularly regarding the Houthis' actions in the Red Sea and its significance for American maritime hegemony. He raises concerns about China's involvement and advanced military capabilities, emphasizing the importance of maintaining control over critical sea lanes for wealth and resource extraction.

Murrin believes historical cycles of war could have been avoided with greater awareness and full-spectrum deterrence, aligning with the 112-year contractive cycle that has led to hegemonic conflicts throughout history.

David also shares his views on China's strategic intentions and resource acquisitions, arguing that China is not primarily concerned with wartime resource gathering but rather denying resources to the West. He points to Argentina as an example where Chinese interests were rejected, giving the West a foothold in the region. Murrin suggests Western engagement and political activism are necessary for regime change in countries with autocratic regimes.

He uses numerous price-based systems to understand various markets and sectors, predicting a decline in bond prices and increased inflation for commodities due to excess demand from fiat money. David sees the current situation as a commodity supercycle that affects the entire commodities complex and causes inflation for all physical resources. War contributes to inflation during these cycles. Murrin warns of impending wars, emphasizing the importance of adapting and strong leadership in response to threats."

Watch Now!

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Dear Arkite,

Watch my latest interview on the Geopolitics & Empire podcast:

"David Murrin discusses his system of forecasting global geopolitics and market trends, which takes into account the stages of empire and imperial decline. There is a rhythm and drumbeat to war which has a bigger cycle of 112 years. We're looking at a struggle between maritime (lateral) democratic governance and landpower (hierarchical) autocratic governance. Democracy is weaker than its ever been. America entered the fifth stage of decline with 9/11. Western leadership is blind and driving the world to war, we're over the brink. WWIII started with the invasion of Ukraine, the Middle East is now on fire, and the last piece of the puzzle is when China chooses to go to war. Decline (e.g. USA) means the fracturing of systems and less to go around. We will continue to see de-dollarization, high inflation, and higher oil and gold prices. Bitcoin, blockchains, and crypto are temporary safe havens that will eventually collapse. We shouldn't worry about Davos Man."

https://geopoliticsandempire.com/

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Watch Now!

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Dear Arkite,

Watch my latest interview with Catherine Cashmore, Land Cycle Investor, where we cover WW3, Australia's defence against attack, the commodity cycle, equities and much more:

"Considering recent global events, it couldn’t be a more foreboding time. The volatility of this cycle has been significant. Economically, the stages have played out as expected. We’ve witnessed land prices follow the same repeating pattern, in the same sequence and rhythm, as outlined in Hoyt’s and Wenzlick’s research in the 1930s.

When I mentioned last week that I would be conducting another interview with David Murrin, to discuss the situation in detail, members flooded me with questions. I managed to get through quite a few of them. Most questions from members were focused on how involvement in war would impact Australia. Are we adequately defended? Would young Australians face conscription into the army? There were also the usual concerns regarding safe havens for investment as we approach the peak and beyond.

David has forecast war with China to commence as early as this year – 2024. That’s a terrifying concept. Whilst I do not totally align with all of David’s timings - especially in respect to the peak of the Commodity cycle (noting, however, that the land cycle exhibits three peaks at slightly different times - in stocks, land, and commodity markets.) His analysis is not rash.

David has conducted decades of research that considers both the timing of the land cycle (in this instance, the Kondratieff Wave, or K-Wave – i.e., 3 land cycles. 54-56 years.) and also the longer 112-year Hegemonic War Cycle. As Kondratiev noted, in the upward swing of the wave years of prosperity are more numerous than during the downswing – the stage of his cycle that some refer to as Winter. “Our investigation demonstrates that during the rise of the long waves years of prosperity are more numerous whereas years of depression predominate during the downswing..” (Kondratiev -The Long Waves in Economic Life) This is where we’re heading. The winter years of the K-wave. You need to be prepared. In our interview we delve into the situation in detail. It was conducted late at night Melbourne time, early afternoon UK time. That always makes these discussions, personally, rather challenging – and doesn’t lead to a very restful night’s sleep afterwards!"

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Watch Now!

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As we outlined in Breaking the Code of History, the rise and fall of civilisations is cyclical. Indeed, the periods of order or social coherence (high anti-entropy) and disorder or dark ages (high entropy) are very much part of the continuum of our human history. As a result, we have created stories and fables that encapsulate heroic narratives against the backdrop of the rises and falls of empire. Stories that are designed to act as lessons we can draw upon in our times of need, as well as templates and warnings. Battlestar Galactica, Star Wars and The Matrix are all examples of this phenomenon.

Dramatic narrative has a habit of uncannily mirroring important world events. JRR Tolkien’s Lord of the Rings is a template for the current, potentially catastrophic, chaos we find ourselves in. Sign up to Murrinations to appreciate this perspective. Lord Of The Rings Has Profound Lessons For Us All Today; Especially Biden and Sunak

Today in Ukraine and Israel: "Open war is upon you whether you would risk it or not."

Can you afford not to know what comes next? Read Iran's War On Israel 9: Over The Brink.

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