For actionable market analysis and trade ideas grounded in a uniquely accurate geopolitical perspective, you need Global Forecaster . Because we have developed a distinctive set of behavioural models that accurately predict both financial market trends and geopolitical dynamics—models that have consistently delivered exceptional results.
These models underpinned my 20-year career as CIO of my hedge fund, Emergent Asset Management, where we achieved remarkable returns, particularly in bearish markets (e.g., +84% in 2008). However, since then, they have been considerably enhanced.
David's current predictions have accurately anticipated the unfolding global paradigm shift from West to East and the rise in global conflict—a pattern he identifies as World War III, which he argues began in 2022. His track record in forecasting military events is exceptional. He predicted Russia’s invasion of Ukraine six months in advance, and then even called in advance the exact day it would begin. He has accurately mapped Israel’s military response trajectory—from its invasion of Gaza, to its destruction of Hezbollah, to the recent strikes on Iran—predicting not only their occurrence but also, in the most recent 12-day war, its onset 36 hours ahead of time. He similarly foresaw the Trump B-2 stealth bomber strike just 16 hours before it occurred.
I outline that this unfolding global conflict, aka WW3, has moved through key phases: beginning in Iraq, escalating through Iran’s war on Israel, and ultimately culminating in a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, triggering a full-scale Asian war.
David Murrin: I expect the invasion of Taiwan will come with little or no warning.
“Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defence (MND) has reported a significant and sustained increase in Chinese military operations across multiple domains near the Taiwan Strait, triggering heightened alert levels across the island. The recent surge appears to reflect a deliberate and escalatory show of force by Beijing, with both tactical and strategic dimensions.
Exercising for Invasion: The scale of PLAN exercises is that they are now the size of a real invasion force. As such, GF argues that any such exercise must be viewed as the real deal.
Understanding the CCP, the PLAN, and its new weapons and tactics has never been more important.
Global Trader-Investment Predictions
Crucially, David’s geopolitical accuracy is matched by his macroeconomic foresight. He has long maintained a bullish stance on precious metals, a bearish outlook on the U.S. dollar, and has successfully extracted Alpha from the cryptocurrency markets. He now warns that combining a global arms race and Trump’s fiscal expansion will likely trigger a Western debt crisis. As a result, he believes the U.S. narrow bull market is at or near a significant top. His investment insights can be accessed via his publications.
The CIO Macro View
It comprises our full spectrum market strategy across all seven macro sectors defined below, which integrates all of the elements of our geopolitical perspectives (Murrinations Insights) and market views into one coherent strategy and perspective. They are updated as and when major market events provide new information, which is on average once or twice a month. This product is ideal for CIOs and Senior Risk takers to gain an external and independent perspective. Our strategies cover long and medium time frames. They are designed to be used with our Macro Trade Executions to maximise risk versus reward through short-term entry points that then cascade in the longer-term trend direction. This comprehensive product delivers our full-spectrum market strategy across all seven macro sectors outlined below. It seamlessly integrates our geopolitical insights and market perspectives into a coherent strategic framework.
Trade executions
We provide real-time entry points, stop levels, and recommended position sizes for trades aligned with the strategies outlined in our CIO’s Macro View. Our alpha-generative performance results are published quarterly, enabling clients to evaluate the accuracy of our forecasts and the quality of our returns across different sectors. New trade recommendations are delivered via email, offering timely, actionable insights. Each market sector is available for individual subscription or as part of our comprehensive Global Macro Package. The global market sectors include:
- Commodity Markets-Precious Metals our Core investment
- Equity Indices
- FX
- Cryptocurrencies
- Bond Markets
- Emerging Market FX and Indices
© David Murrin 2026. All images courtesy of Getty Images. |