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Welcome to the archive of Arkite Alerts, Global Forecaster's free newsletter notifying subscribers of the latest news, podcasts, interviews, Global Trader performance reviews and more.
Arkite: the name derived from my Arkent Strategy to navigate, survive and thrive through the great shift.
David and Horatio discuss the escalation in the regional Iranian war. Going into depth about where and when this began and how this conflict may look in the coming months and years.
We also go over the other current conflicts in the globe right now, Pakistan and Afghanistan and Russia and Ukraine. Mentioning the complex dynamics that are involved in these very different but interlinked situations.
Stay ahead of the curve.
What do galaxies, ancient monuments, financial markets, and quantum physics have in common? The Fibonacci sequence. Far from a mathematical curiosity, new research suggests Fibonacci geometry may be a universal stabilisation principle — operating across space, time, and even market cycles. This article explores how breakthroughs in quantum quasiperiodic science reinforce the fractal logic behind Elliott Wave theory and Global Forecaster's five-phase model of empire. A compelling read on why resilience — in markets, systems, and civilisations — may depend on adaptive, non-repeating patterns rather than rigid cycles.
Dear Arkite,
Listen to my latest interview on the Longview podcast: Longview Conversations with David Murrin: Is the West Sleepwalking Into WWIII?
In this fifteenth instalment of Longview Conversations With, CEO Chris Watling speaks with David Murrin — geopolitical strategist, market forecaster, and founder of Global Forecaster — in a wide-ranging discussion on war patterns and geopolitical tensions. Murrin, originally a geophysicist in Papua New Guinea, developed an early interest in collective human behaviour that shaped his work across markets and conflict. After JP Morgan and co-founding Emergent Asset Management, he launched Global Forecaster, advising governments, militaries, and financial institutions.
His 2009 book Breaking the Code of History outlines his Five Stages of Empire and 108–112 year hegemonic war cycle theory, frameworks behind his non-consensus forecasts. The conversation explores this war cycle and today’s position within it, alongside his fractal, quantum-inspired view of market behaviour during conflict. Murrin argues tensions around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz may persist longer than markets expect, supporting elevated oil prices. He also highlights Western strategic weakness and declining defence capacity, while pointing to China’s steady build-up as it positions itself as the next hegemonic power. We hope you enjoy it.
Based on our analysis outlined in
Even if the United States saturates the campaign for control of the Gulf and Strait of Hormuz with the full range of sensors and combat assets outlined in this Murrination insight report, the operation to secure the Strait of Hormuz could be completed within three to four months. However, we anticipate that the United States may struggle to deploy and sustain such a high operational tempo, potentially extending the conflict well beyond that timeframe.
In addition, well before that point, there is a high probability that the depletion of American mid-course interceptors, the concentration of US naval and missile defence assets in the Gulf at the cost of Pacific and Atlantic deployments, and the disruption of oil flows as production facilities are damaged during missile/bomb exchanges will generate significant strategic compression. This will, in high probability, provide China with an opportunity to launch a major military campaign across the Pacific without warning to seize control out to the third island chain, potentially in parallel with a Russian escalation against NATO.” A view outline in-
WW3 107: Iran’s War with Israel 23: The Big Picture Escalatory Path to China Declaring War
Why do rising powers so often launch wars they cannot win? This article argues that a recurring structural phenomenon, strategic compression, plays a central role. As states expand through population growth, economic strength, and internal unity, they inevitably meet resistance from the powers already dominating the system. That resistance narrows their options, creating pressure to act aggressively before conditions deteriorate further, even when the timing is poor.
The pattern repeats across centuries. Revolutionary France, Imperial Germany in 1914, Nazi Germany in 1939, and Japan in 1941 all followed strikingly similar trajectories — expansion meeting containment, followed by high-risk gambles born of perceived necessity.
The article places these dynamics within longer economic and geopolitical rhythms, drawing on Kondratiev Wave theory and the roughly 108–112-year cycle of hegemonic conflict. It then turns to the present, examining how compression shapes China's strategic calculus and Ukraine's regional position. The concluding section offers policy recommendations for Ukraine and Eastern Europe, focusing on resilience, anticipation, and collective approaches to managing systemic pressure.
Einstein famously observed that doing the same thing over and over again while expecting a different result is the definition of stupidity and insanity; a warning that seems relevant to recent U.S. war operations in the region against Iran. The failed “mowing the grass” approach (aka Ruble bouncing as I have come to call it), previously seen in repeated strikes against Houthis' targets that cost hundreds of millions of dollars yet left the Houthis still operational, clearly illustrates the problem.
Rather than learning from these profound military lessons, Washington appears to have repeated the same strategy in confronting Iran on a larger, high-tempo scale. The Houthis themselves drew lessons from the IRGC’s doctrine of asymmetric warfare, and Tehran is now demonstrating a similar mastery in the Gulf; hidden long-range missiles to keep attacking Israel, to keep doing damage, whilst reducing US mid-course interceptor magazine depth with huge strategic consequences for imminent WW3 escalations in the Pacific. But best of all, it has emulated and expanded on the Houthis' success of denying the Red Sea to shipping, while using mines, drones, missiles and unmanned fast attack boats to challenge far more expensive U.S. naval assets and disrupt shipping across the gulf through the Strait of Hormuz. For the IRGC, this is like shooting fish in a barrel, and we should expect many more ships to be hit in the days ahead.
The result is a classic case of a technologically superior American force struggling against a well-prepared adversary using asymmetric tactics to impose disproportionate costs. This strategic paradigm is America's nemesis; as time erodes national willpower, leading to defeat on every occasion since and including Vietnam. In the case of Trump today, he is, by our assessment, less able to withstand the atrophy of time than any other US president caught in war. Indeed, on Monday this week (war day 8), he announced it was all over and on Wednesday, he was bawling out his four main advisors for feeding him misinformation that led us to war.........
The US has already lost the initiative. Find out why this conflict is heading for a prolonged escalation, what it means for oil prices and inflation, and how to position yourself ahead of the curve.
Find out why Trump has lost the initiative in the war, why the conflict is likely to become protracted, and why oil prices and inflation are set to surge higher.
A Parable of War
And then, just after Trumpy proudly declared victory on Monday, the Iranians quietly started laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz.
This, unsurprisingly, made Trumpy rather angry.
So he ordered his navy to go and remove them.
The navy duly dispatched its three-remaining mine-clearing ships to deal with the problem. Unfortunately, by Thursday, two had been blown up by mini-submarines and the third was taken out by a small cruise missile.
Now completely bereft of minesweepers, the C-in-C of the Navy received a spectacular rant from Trumpy, who had just discovered—somewhat late in the day—that the U.S. military is not, in fact, the world champion when it comes to mine-sweeping.
Meanwhile, in the next few weeks, oil shot up to $200 a barrel.
The Chinese, finding themselves rather short of oil and knowing that the US has run out of mid-course interceptors, decided this might be a good moment to start a war.
And everyone was apparently very surprised, except those who follow Global Forecaster!
This article explores strategic compression as a structural catalyst for hegemonic wars. Expansionary momentum – driven by demographic growth, economic vitality, and national cohesion – inevitably collides with systemic resistance from established powers. The resulting compression narrows strategic options, fostering premature aggression at suboptimal moments. Historical case studies, including Revolutionary
France, Germany in 1914, Nazi Germany in 1939, and Japan in 1941, illustrate this recurring pattern.
The analysis situates compression within Kondratiev Waves and the 108–112-year hegemonic war cycle, highlighting their predictive value. Contemporary application highlights China’s strategic environment and Ukraine’s regional experience, demonstrating the universality of compression dynamics. The article concludes with policy recommendations for Ukraine and Eastern Europe, emphasising resilience,
foresight, and cooperative strategies to mitigate systemic pressures.
I aim to provide early warnings of geopolitical and economic shifts, allowing leaders and the public to anticipate and navigate critical inflection points.
Historical patterns leading to WW1 and WW2 and our unique behavioural models all point to the fact WW3 has already started!
Last week, I had the privilege of visiting Ukraine and seeing its remarkable people first-hand and witnessing how they were adapting to being a country at war; meeting numerous senior military leaders and politicians to gain a unique insight.
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