There is no change to our analysis:
Trump has let loose the dogs of war as we outlined in WW3-90; Trump 33: His Venezuela Gamble Has Unleashed the Dogs of War. From the first missile fired, we have maintained the view that this is an escalating long war, in stark contrast to the major collective delusion that it would be another short 12-day war.
However, the scale of delusion in global markets is likely to be stripped away as the Gulf conflict escalates, forcing a rapid reassessment of risk as volatility spikes. For weeks, markets have priced in a contained confrontation, assuming that energy flows—particularly through the Strait of Hormuz—would remain largely unaffected. That assumption is now increasingly fragile.
As the conflict intensifies and shipping disruptions become total, energy markets will begin to reflect the true strategic risk imposed by teh IRGC war strategy, driving oil and gas prices sharply higher on a sustained basis. This shift in market perception will not be gradual; it will be abrupt, as traders move from complacency to crisis pricing, recognising that the shutdown of the Gulf and the destruction of its energy production infrastructure will have outsized global economic consequences.
So far, our predictions of the war's course have been very accurate. We continue to argue that the war is set to escalate in both scope and intensity, with a high risk that China will soon also commence a war in the Pacific. Hence, the trends are only in their early stages with huge potential returns to come.
Despite the ongoing bullish rhetoric, Trump’s War against Iran is not going well, but is hopelessly off track and increasingly out of control. Having lost the initiative, Trump has effectively fallen into an IRGC “bear trap,” where the conflict is now being shaped on Iran’s terms rather than his own. As such, its duration will be far longer than the majority expect; American forces will be drawn into the threat, and oil prices will rocket to $250 as the full 20 billion barrels per day from the Gulf stops flowing and the infrastructure for energy production is laid waste on all sides by increasingly intense and destructive exchanges of missile, bombs and drone Fire.
Murrination gold Insights
Our views on the war are detailed in our extensive Murrination insights-
- Iran's War on Israel and America 27:Trump Has Underestimated Iran’s “Martyrdom Mindset”
- Iran's War on Israel and America 26:The Battle for the Gulf and Strait of Hormuz -Part II The USN Counter A2/AD Strategy
- Iran's War on Israel and America 25:Trump is Caught In An Iranian Bear Trap
- Iran's War on Israel and America 24:The Battle for the Gulf and Strait of Hormuz -Part I Iran's A2/D2 Strategy
- WW3 107: Iran’s War with Israel 23: The Big Picture Escalatory Path to China Declaring War
- WW3 106: Iran's War on Israel and America 22: Epic Fury - Midcourse Interceptor Depletion Will Be A Strategic Opening for China
- WW3 102: Iran's War On Israel 21: Chinese Support of Iran Makes The Inevitable War Highly Escalatory
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