Image

Are you one of the hedge funds piling into the “Rebuild Ukraine” trade, betting on peace after Trump’s talks with Putin in Alaska? If so, you’ve clearly not been reading Murrinations insights—where we explain why peace is nowhere near breaking out.

Some managers are “salivating” at the prospect of a $486bn reconstruction boom, chasing Morgan Stanley’s “Rebuild Ukraine” basket of stocks like Vinci, Heidelberg Materials, Assa Abloy, Holcim, CRH, and Buzzi. But this is classic FOMO investing—misreading geopolitics, mistiming markets, and mistaking noise for signal.

At Murrinations Corporate Platinum, we cut through the hype and show you the real trajectory of this war and its market consequences. Before you chase the wrong trade, get the analysis that matters.

CHOOSE YOUR SUBSCRIPTION | David Murrin

Image

Dear Arkite,

Image

"Tom welcomes David Murrin to the Competent Man to explore the importance of resilience and lateral thinking in navigating the challenges facing society. Murrin shares his personal journey as a dyslexic individual who developed unique problem-solving abilities through adversity. He argues that lateral thinkers, often misunderstood, possess valuable skills that are crucial for leadership and innovation, especially as the world faces increasing conflict and disruption. David emphasizes the need for educational systems that nurture diverse learning styles and the importance of parents deliberately fostering resilience in their children through exposure to hardship and challenges. He cautions against the dangers of overprotection, which can stifle personal growth and adaptability.

Murrin also delves into the dynamics of partner selection, advocating for lateral individuals to seek compatible matches to cultivate fulfilling relationships. Looking ahead, David foresees a looming "extinction event" for linear thinkers as artificial intelligence increasingly automates repetitive tasks. He believes lateral individuals, with their ability to think creatively and adapt, will be better positioned to thrive in this shifting landscape. Ultimately, Murrin emphasises the importance of self-awareness, emotional intelligence, and a willingness to confront one's fears as key components of building resilience and competence, both on an individual and societal level."

Watch Now

Image

Image

A Message from David Murrin

When I launched Murrinations Gold in 2019, my mission was clear: to provide investment-grade geopolitical insight that cuts through the noise of an increasingly chaotic world. Over the past six years, I’ve dedicated myself to delivering high-integrity analysis, helping readers not only understand the forces shaping our era, but also to anticipate what comes next.

Today, that mission is more vital than ever.

In an age defined by misinformation and narrative manipulation, Murrinations Gold has become a rare and trusted source of strategic clarity. True foresight doesn’t emerge from consensus—it’s built on reality-tested models of human systems, historical cycles, and a deep understanding of geopolitical and economic dynamics.

1.0 Our track record speaks for itself.

Over the past few years, we’ve made a series of highly accurate and time-sensitive predictions: Some of the Biggest have been:

• The Pandemic: We forecast the arrival of COVID-19 three months before it hit Europe, and identified Omicron as its natural endpoint.
• World War III: We predicted the onset of global conflict in 2022 two decades ago, including Russia’s invasion of Ukraine—six months in advance and, more precisely, a week before it occurred. We continue to track its evolution closely.
• Middle East War: On October 8th—immediately following the Hamas massacre—we forecast the strategic phases of Israel’s campaign, from Gaza to Hezbollah. We also warned that once Iran’s proxy threats were neutralised, Israel would strike Iran’s nuclear facilities. To that end, we provided a 24-hour alert ahead of the first strike and a 12-hour warning before the US B2 bombers launched.

So, the question is no longer why follow Murrinations—but whether you can afford not to.

2.0 What’s New at Murrinations Gold?

Our core product, Murrinations Gold, has evolved far beyond its original scope. As global instability accelerates, it has become my most personal and dynamic body of work—an extension of the themes from Breaking the Code of History, updated in real time and pushed into new strategic frontiers.

We’ve enhanced the offering with the following new features:

• Summaries and Key Predictions are included with each post for faster, clearer takeaways.
• Weekly Digest Emails sent to subscribers—so you can catch up quickly with all the critical insights from the past week.

3.0 Introducing: Murrinations Platinum for Corporates

For organisations seeking a deeper edge, our new Murrinations Platinum corporate tier offers an expanded, bespoke advisory service. This includes:

• Extended prediction threads linked to Murrinations Gold content
• Strategic insights tailored for decision-makers in finance, security, and industry
• Direct access to our team for briefings and risk assessments

Now is the moment to stay ahead, not behind.

Join Murrinations Gold or Murrinations Platinum Corporate and gain the foresight to navigate what’s coming. 

CHOOSE YOUR SUBSCRIPTION | David Murrin

Dear Arkite,

We're happy to announce all new subscription options and their associated newsletters, view them now, providing you with big picture views supported by detailed analysis, foresight, and strategy. 

Bronze level - FREE

Now, along with Arkite Alerts, free subscribers will receive Headlines from the Week, once a week on a Friday, which includes the Murrinations image and headlines via email only. This will allow you to keep on top of the latest topics David is writing about.

Image

Silver level - starting at £9.99 per month

Go Silver For those that wish to receive a single Murrination of the week on Sundays, via email only, but do not wish to access Murrinations in full through the website, as they are published and any of our comprehensive real time updates.

Murrinations of the Week contain the complete article, including the image, title, summary, content, key predictions, aspirations but not predictions strings. Sent out once a week on Sunday mornings, via email only,

Image

Gold level - starting at £50 per month

Our Gold level is our full level Geopolitical subscription that will unlock a wealth of insights, granting you exclusive online access to David's complete series of Murrinations and the subsequent real time updates to his geopolitical predictions. Delve into the intricacies of David's perspectives, understanding the genesis of his insights, his foresight on the trajectory of key global topics, and the recommended actions for strategies to enhance our outcomes. 

This now includes:

Murrinations Gold Publication Alerts - Alerts to New Murrinations, via email, with the image, title and a few intro lines.

Image

Murrinations Gold Refresh - Updates to previous Murrinations, via email, that serve as reminders of key live topics.

Image

Murrinations Gold Key Predictions - The summary of each Murrinations Key Predictions, lessons learned and actions to implement, via email.

Image

Murrinations Predictive strings - This element is now part of our Platinum service, as it has evolved into a comprehensive list and running commentary on the insights David provides. If you are a current Gold level subscriber and would like to retain access and receive this newsletter, please contact us and we'll be happy to re-subscribe you for the duration of your subscription.

Platinum level - starting at £1,500 per month

Platinum Corporate is our premier Geopolitical Forecasting service, purpose-built for the military, companies, asset managers, and institutional clients who need to stay decisively ahead of fast-moving geopolitical and macroeconomic developments. This elite offering builds upon the foundations of our Murrination Gold service, enhancing it with tailored predictive narrative strings—dynamic, forward-looking insights that help you anticipate key global shifts before they appear in mainstream discourse.

Murrinations Platinum Predictive strings - Follow the unfolding of news linked to a Murrination via email. At the top of each string is the Murrination image, title, and summary.

Image

One On One Monthly Q&A CC - A monthly hour-long Q and A session. Discussing the key topics of the past month and the next.

Currently subscriptions have to be renewed manually each 6 or 12 months. But starting from today newly purchased subscriptions will take advantage of our new integration with the payment provider Stripe and it's automated recurring payments systems. 

View a comprehensive table of subscriptions to get a complete overview of our products.

Join Murrinations Gold or Murrinations Platinum Corporate and gain the foresight to navigate what’s coming. 

Image

There are distinct hallmarks that often precede wars launched by authoritarian regimes, led by highly narcissistic leaders —patterns of behaviour that signal a nation has embarked on an inevitable road to war. These include:

1. An expansive and aggressive sense of national energy or destiny
2. Initiation of rearmament programs with associated revolutions in military affairs- seeking asymmetric militray advantage.
3. The systematic suppression of truth and dissent within society
4. The manipulation of historical narratives and the proliferation of state propaganda
5. A heightened belief in national exceptionalism or historic mission
6. The framing of existential security imperatives requiring preemptive action
7. The dominating influence of the leader’s personal ego and desire for an incredible legacy
8. A manufactured sense of urgency—whether due to the ageing of the leader, perceived windows of opportunity, or the desire to correct so-called historic injustices

These warning signs were visible in Putin’s rationale before he invaded Ukraine, and are increasingly echoed in Xi Jinping’s ambitions toward Taiwan.

Both leaders exhibit a convergence of ideological, personal, and strategic motivations that align with this dangerous autocratic pattern, one that history shows almost always ends in war.

Which partially explains how we arrived at this moment............................

SUBSCRIBE TO- Murrinations Gold

Trump has been escalating pressure on Putin all week following his ultimatum to impose 100% secondary tariffs on buyers of Russian oil. This aggressive move marks a significant shift in his stance toward Moscow.

While Trump has claimed that he ordered the forward movement of two U.S. ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs) towards Russia, our evaluation is that this is likely just posturing, given that deterrent US submarines are always within range of Russian targets, especially since the invasion of Ukraine. —The message is still clear. After a lifetime of appearing aligned with Russian interests, it seems the tide may be turning.

Image

This could indicate that Trump is now serious about halting Putin’s war in Ukraine by forcing him to stop through direct economic and strategic pressure.

For more on our Ukraine forecasts as tensions inevitably rise, stay tuned to our upcoming analysis.

SUBSCRIBE TO- Murrinations Gold

Text to go here...

Image

Dear Arkite,

Listen to the latest The State Of It podcast now!

In the second episode of Season 5 of the State of It podcast, David and Horatio talk about the state of the Iran-Israel conflict and how it may expand into a much larger conflict than what people currently believe.

Image

Listen Now

Image

Image

As many of you know, one of the core tenets of our human systems theory is the concept of lateral and linear thinkers—two distinct cognitive archetypes that exist in dynamic tension throughout the rise and fall of empires.

We argue that seafarers are inherently more likely to be lateral thinkers, drawn to the uncertainty and entropy of the open seas. In fact, nations with high coastline-to-landmass ratios—such as Britain and Holland—tend to produce higher percentages of lateral thinkers than landlocked nations. Thus, it was no coincidence that these nations were the cradles of Protestantism, meritocracy, and democracy in Europe.

Therefore, sailing is not only the sport of kings but also a celebration of the democratic and innovative spirit. Sailboat racing attracts a high concentration of lateral thinkers, making it a natural fit for our values at Global Forecaster.

That is why we were proud to sponsor this year's BCYC Round Island Race. Above is the gorgeous Laurent Giles yacht  Lutine storming into the Needles.

The race began early on Day Two of British Classic Week, with Classes 1–3 setting off from the Royal Yacht Squadron line. They headed east along the same route as the America's Cup to circumnavigate the Isle of Wight, continuing a tradition that mirrors the pioneering spirit we champion. The weather was perfect to provide a fabulous race over the next 8 hours.

Watch this video Clip Instagram

Read more here-British Classic Week Day 2

Global Forecaster David Murrin commented, “As human beings, we are, sadly, very predictable. Fortunately, this predictability allows us to find deep-seated historical patterns and use them to understand and predict the future.  In today’s turbulent climate, this is even more valuable.”

David continued, “As sailors, we are lateral thinkers.  On the water, we look at problems from different angles, take risks, and have an adventurous nature.  These maritime characteristics helped form the foundations of democracy and will help us track and predict global events in the future.  The question is, can you afford not to know?”

By predicting geopolitical and market moves before they happen and analysing patterns in human behaviour, Global Forecaster supports individuals and businesses to apply lateral thinking to navigate the future, grasp opportunities and safeguard against turbulent events.

So go lateral and .....

SUBSCRIBE TO- Murrinations Gold

In the coming weeks, a pro-Russia American figure—perhaps Tucker Carlson or even Donald Trump—may begin touting the idea that the United States owes a debt of gratitude to Russia for its alleged support during the American War of Independence. This narrative is likely to be fueled by a recent interview over the July 4th weekend, in which Vladimir Putin claimed that Russia provided arms and money to aid the American cause.

True or False?

Image

Answer: False- 

Unlike France, Spain, and the Dutch Republic, Russia did not provide troops, arms, or funds to the American revolutionaries. The controversial Empress Catherine the Great was not sympathetic to the American War for Independence, nor to revolutions or republican ideals. She viewed them as threats to the monarchical order.

Near the end of the war, in 1780, Catherine led the formation of the League of Armed Neutrality—a coalition of European naval powers that opposed Britain's interference with neutral shipping during wartime. This move restricted British naval operations, as the Royal Navy could no longer freely stop and search neutral ships from Russia, Sweden, Denmark, and others. But that is a far cry from supporting the American cause with arms and money.

Once again, Putin is lying—his primary goal being to manipulate gullible Americans and pro-Kremlin mouthpieces.

Understanding objective reality and historical truth is essential to resist the many lies of our modern world.

SUBSCRIBE TO- Murrinations Gold