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Geopolitical Subscribers

We warned of the IDF strike on Iran 24 hours in advance in our Gold Murrination.

Iran’s War on Israel 16: The Imminent Pre-Emptive Strike on Iran

There is also an update string at the bottom of this Murrination that reviews the previous day's war dynamics and anticipates the war's path.

So if you wish to stay ahead of the escalation cycle

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For Asset Managers

Our CIO’s view and Trade updates provide real-time investment recommendations, combining our geopolitical model, war analysis and markets model in a unique predictive blend.

Investing During the Regional Iran–Israel War

Can you afford not to know?

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But.... He WAS SURPRISED –

BECAUSE He didn’t follow GLOBAL TRADER

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But.... They Didn't Read Their Murrinations Gold Insights- Have You?

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A message from David Murrin (amended)

When I launched Murrinations Gold in 2019, my goal was clear: to provide the public with investment-grade geopolitical insight that cuts through the noise of an increasingly chaotic world. Over the past five years, I’ve dedicated myself to delivering ever-high-integrity analysis that goes beyond headlines, helping readers not only interpret the forces shaping our age but also anticipate what comes next.

This work has never been more vital.

In an era dominated by misinformation and narrative manipulation, Murrinations has become a rare and trusted reference point for truth and strategic clarity.

Genuine foresight doesn’t emerge from consensus; rather, it comes from building and operating my now extensive human systems models, which are grounded in historical cycles, reality-tested assumptions, and a deep understanding of the hidden dynamics that shape our world.

Gold level Murrinations have evolved far beyond their original scope. As global entropy accelerates, it has become my most personal and passionate body of work—an extension of the principles laid out in Breaking the Code of History, interpreted in real-time and pushed into new strategic frontiers.

Now, I invite you to join me on this journey so that together, we can share a realistic worldview and help break through the dissonance of our current paradigm.

As a Murrinations Gold subscriber, you’ll receive:

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In a world where exponential change is the new normal,

Foresight is a strategic advantage.

Murrinations Gold is built to provide exactly that, as proven by the accuracy of our work over many years.

Sample Insights

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Trump 16: His Trade War; Another Nail in The American Empires Coffin

Yesterday, Trump escalated his trade war to a global scale, implementing an economic policy driven by delusion—one that may well be the final nail in the coffin of the American empire. In direct…

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Understanding the Interconnected World of Global Forecaster

Looking to the future, my aspiration and most profound hope is that through the development of a new science of the study of human cycles—one dedicated to studying humanity’s past and present…

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The Next Commodity Surge Has Commenced

We believe that the commodity sector is now at the start of one of its biggest rallies in 56 years with an expected peak in 2025-27, as recently explained in my…

If you’ve found value in my free analysis, I encourage you to take the next step. Join Murrinations Gold, and walk with me at the cutting edge of global transformation.

The pace of change is accelerating.
It’s time to see further.
It’s time to go deeper.
It’s time to join Murrinations Gold.

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This extensive interview lasted for over 4.5 hours and is not in the public domain, as it is only available to his gold members

However, Grant has kindly made our conversation available only to Murrination Gold Subscribers.

So  CHOOSE YOUR GOLD SUBSCRIPTION TO David Murrin and gain this bonus and a new understanding of this perilous world we all live in and its oncoming challenges;

The 43rd episode of About Time

Grant travels to rural England to spend the day with David Murrin. From the jungles of Papua New Guinea to the trading floors of Wall Street, David’s life has been a compelling journey through the core of global risk.

A former hedge fund manager, Murrin’s unique worldview—shaped by a family legacy steeped in Britain’s imperial history—has led him to a stark conclusion: the world stands on the cusp of a new era defined by escalating conflict and upheaval.

In this expansive conversation, Murrin challenges conventional thinking with bold predictions about the decline of American power, the rise of China, and the growing likelihood of a third world war—all converging within the next few years. This episode offers a rare and thought-provoking glimpse into a future few dare to acknowledge.

About Time

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Conducting an in-depth interview over the course of a day is a delicate exercise in time management—a dynamic blend of structured choreography and organic improvisation. It’s a pursuit driven by the challenge of uncovering timeless yet original insights. Amid the tangle of cables powering cameras, lights, and microphones, there’s a tangible awareness of the clock ticking—each moment a chance to ask the right question, to spark that elusive “a-ha” moment that captures the essence of a subject’s decades of experience: the building, the setbacks, the breakthroughs. And always, there's the quiet obligation to honour the time our About Time viewers invest in every interview we produce. It’s a challenge the grant-williams.com team welcomes wholeheartedly.

Gold tier subscribers receive exclusive access to About Time—monthly, long-form interviews with some of the most insightful and hard-to-reach figures in finance. Building on the tradition of the In Conversation With… series, Grant hits the road once again to deliver compelling, intimate conversations designed to shift your worldview for years to come.

Gold members also gain access to The Gold Bar—Grant’s private, subscriber-only Slack room—where ideas are exchanged, relationships are built, and discourse is held to a standard of mutual respect.

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Contrast David’s predictive power with the retrospective nature of mainstream news.

Why should you invest in David’s Murrination Insights?

David Murrin’s insights are widely praised for their depth, accuracy, and originality. Subscribers frequently highlight the unmatched foresight he offers — identifying key global trends and geopolitical shifts well before they hit the mainstream. While many media outlets report on what’s already happened, David consistently predicts what’s next, making his analysis truly investment-grade and indispensable for anyone trying to stay ahead of unfolding world events.

From military expertise to financial foresight, David brings a rare blend of experience that informs his unique global model. His work has helped investors, business owners, and concerned pensioners make sense of chaotic times, anticipate risks, and seize opportunities. Whether you’re tracking financial markets, planning for retirement, or simply trying to understand the bigger picture, his commentary offers clarity and strategic value.

What sets Murrinations apart is not just accuracy — it’s perspective. David links history, psychology, and patterns like Kondratiev and Elliott waves to explain today’s headlines and tomorrow’s. His work challenges conventional thinking, appeals to naturally curious minds, and speaks to those tired of mainstream echo chambers. For many, reading his work feels like finding a kindred voice — one grounded in realism, truth, and an uncommon optimism that through facing reality we can overcome any obstacles ahead.

"I don’t know enough about charting (price based analysis)  to make much of it myself, but I’ve seen enough to recognise the repetitive nature of market-driven behaviour. Market patterns do repeat and are therefore worth paying attention to. For instance, for a superb overview, take a look at David Murrin’s website. His global forecasts and commentary are worth a sign-up to run through his chart-supported outlook and reading of the underlying forces at play."

Bill Blain - Morning Porridge and Shard Capital

In Trumps entropic world, Murrinations Insights will help you to future-proof your world with analysis, predictions, and strategies to help you anticipate future events. His insights are based on a global model that integrates significant geopolitical, military, economic, financial market, and environmental developments. Murrinations are published on a regular basis as David reacts to the rhythms of the geopolitical world around us, on average twice a week. They are then updated with real time news as they unfold in our update strings at the bottom of each Murrination. Allowing you to follow our predictions.

In contrast to newspapers - which solely furnish yesterday's headlines - David’s insights stand out for their exceptional ability to predict those very headlines.

All you have to do to subscribe is follow this link and select a Gold-level option https://www.davidmurrin.co.uk/choose-your-subscription 

Whilst our Silver-level subscription is designed to offer a taste once a week on Sunday as to our world view. Our Gold-level subscription offers our full coverage of the unfolding geopolitical world.

"I don't think many people realise how difficult and taxing it is to write often and well. And then to write lucidly about vexing topics too; then put your arse on the line with predicting on top of it. I realise that and applaud you every time I get a post from you."

Mario Pretorius, The Unconventional CEO, entrepreneur and writer

Read more here about why you shouldn’t leave it any longer and subscribe now https://www.davidmurrin.co.uk/feedback-0

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Dear Arkite,

Listen to my latest interview on the Warships Pod podcast with Iain Ballantyne.

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In this episode of the Warships Pod guests David Murrin and Dr David Blagden, with help from host Iain Ballantyne, discuss a worldwide struggle in a multi-polar era that is rapidly turning kinetic - from Ukraine, to the Red Sea and Gaza. It may soon burn even hotter should China invade Taiwan and/or the USA attack Iran.

A number of topics are discussed during this episode, including the following:

• Does the European Union (EU) have a place in such a world, at the top table? Or is it going to be sweeping up the crumbs along with the UK, the latter finding itself a bridge to neither the USA or the EU?
• Bearing in mind the UK is a maritime nation, is committing what remains of the British armed forces to policing a frozen war in Ukraine unwise? Do we risk a situation where things get bogged down in that theatre while the Russians run amok at sea, with the UK defenceless?
• With concerted attacks by US Navy carrier jets and cruise missile attacks by other USN units against the Houthis in Yemen is it at odds with the Trump administration’s supposed urgent priority of facing down China and its huge navy? Every missile expended against the Houthis is surely one less for use against the Chinese?
• Narrowing the discussion down to the UK, with the Labour government announcing plans to cut welfare to pay for Defence boosts, how do the two Davids think the Royal Navy should mould itself?
• Finally - and this is a big one for the episode’s final point of discussion - are we heading inexorably towards what the tabloids might call WW3? Or can it be avoided?

The May 2025 edition of Warships IFR is published on 22.4.25 in the UK and also deployed globally. Visit the magazine web site http://bit.ly/wifrmag Also, follow it on X @WarshipsIFR Facebook @WarshipsIFR and Warships IFR TV on YouTube @warshipsifrtv3668 For more on various editions of the magazine https://bit.ly/wifri
 

• Dr David Blagden is Associate Professor in International Security and Strategy at the University of Exeter. Dr Blagden has previously worked in the Cabinet Office, regularly consults for several UK Government departments, and has served as Specialist Advisor to a Parliamentary Select Committee. He is also a Senior Associate Fellow of the NATO Defense College and a Visiting Fellow of the Royal Navy Strategic Studies Centre. Find him on X @blagden_david
• David Murrin is a Global Forecaster, investor, polymath and author of ‘Breaking the Code of History’ (2011). He has a talent for spotting and analysing deep-seated patterns in history and using them to try and understand the present and also where we might be going in today’s turbulent geopolitical scene. His other books are ‘Lions Led by Lions’ (2018), ‘Now or Never’ (2021) and ‘Red Lightning’ (2021). The latter is a work of faction that depicts China winning a world war. David Murrin’s website is https://www.davidmurrin.co.uk/about Find him on X @GlobalForecastr
• Iain Ballantyne is the founding and current Editor of ‘Warships IFR’ magazine (first published in 1998) along with its ‘Guide to the Royal Navy’ (since 2003) and ‘Guide to the US Navy’ (since 2018). Iain is also author of the books ‘Hunter Killers’ (Orion) and ‘The Deadly Trade’ (Weidenfeld & Nicolson), both about submarine warfare, plus ‘Arnhem: Ten Days in The Cauldron’ and ‘Bismarck: 24 Hours to Doom’ (published by Canelo). In 2017 Iain was awarded a Fellowship by the British Maritime Foundation, which promotes awareness of the United Kingdom’s dependence on the sea and seafarers. Visit his web site Bismarckbattle.com and follow him on X @IBallantyn

Listen Now

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The boundaries between fiction and foresight blur intriguingly in the works of David Murrin and the concept of psychohistory, introduced by Isaac Asimov through his character Hari Seldon. Though separated by genre—one a real-world geopolitical thinker, the other a fictional mathematician from a galactic empire—their ideas share remarkable thematic and methodological parallels. At their core lies a singular ambition: to map the future of civilisations through the lens of large-scale behavioral patterns.

David Murrin, a former hedge fund manager turned global strategist, is best known for his theory of civilizational cycles, where nations rise and fall in predictable phases: regionalization, ascension, maturity, overextension, decline, and ultimately collapse. Rooted in historical data, Murrin’s work focuses on patterns of empire, innovation, military expansion, and cultural confidence—arguing that human behavior, especially at the collective level, is cyclical and thus predictable.

Hari Seldon, the fictional mathematician in Foundation, operates on a similar thesis. Psychohistory, the science he develops, uses advanced mathematics and probabilistic modeling to predict the broad course of history over millennia. Though Seldon concedes that the actions of individuals are inherently unpredictable, the behavior of large populations, when taken in aggregate, adheres to statistical laws. Through psychohistory, Seldon foresees the collapse of the Galactic Empire and lays out a secret plan—the Foundation—to shorten the coming dark age.

The parallels between Murrin and Seldon are striking. Both see history not as chaotic or random but as a system governed by rhythms, feedback loops, and self-reinforcing cycles. Murrin’s warning about the West’s decline and China’s rise echoes Seldon’s projections of civilisational decay and rebirth. Both suggest that leaders ignore historical patterns at their peril—and that timely, strategic intervention could mitigate catastrophe.

A particularly compelling link is the idea of preemptive stabilisation. Seldon’s Foundation is designed not to prevent the fall of the empire, but to manage the aftermath, preserving knowledge and accelerating recovery. Similarly, Murrin does not propose utopian avoidance of decline but urges policymakers to recognize early warning signs and act decisively. In both cases, awareness of the cycle is key to transcending it.

Where they diverge is in tools and certainty. Seldon’s psychohistory is mathematical, precise to the point of predicting centuries in advance. Murrin, meanwhile, works within the messier world of human psychology, economics, and realpolitik—where variables are harder to control and narratives resist clean equations. Yet, the spirit of the enterprise remains the same: to impose order on the apparent chaos of geopolitics through deep historical pattern recognition.

Today, as the global order shifts and empires once again teeter between renewal and decline, the dialogue between Murrin’s real-world modeling and Seldon’s fictional foresight seems more relevant than ever. Both warn us that the seeds of the future are sown in the behavior of the present—and that if we learn to read the signs, we might just shape what comes next.

CHOOSE YOUR SUBSCRIPTION | David Murrin

Murrinations Insights will help you to future-proof your world with investment-grade analysis, predictions, and strategies to help you anticipate future events. Our insights are based on a global model that integrates significant geopolitical, military, economic, financial market, and environmental developments. Murrinations are published on a regular basis as David reacts to the rhythms of the geopolitical world around us, on average twice a week.

In contrast to newspapers - which solely furnish yesterday's headlines - David’s insights stand out for their exceptional ability to predict those very headlines.

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