Join us for a unique journey of discovery at Global Forecaster, where we'll push the boundaries of your thinking and empower you to embrace innovative approaches, leading to comprehensive and nuanced outcomes.
Our relationship with reality is a very personal experience. The modern age of false truths raises the question of how as individuals we can better discern what is happening in the highly entropic human world around us. In the wonderful thought-provoking film The Matrix, there is the famous clip below, in which Neo faces the choice to continue living in his delusion or to wake up and see and understand the real world.
So... do you take the blue pill or the red pill? Global Forecaster challenges you to choose red.
This very human choice was first encapsulated in Plato's allegory of the cave in his work Republic (514-520 BC), comparing the impact of education and the lack of it upon our nature.
In Plato's allegory of "The Cave", he depicts a scenario where individuals have been chained their entire lives within a cave, facing a barren wall. These individuals observe shadows cast on the wall, created by objects moving in front of a fire situated behind them, and assign names to these shadows. These shadows constitute the prisoners' perceived reality, though they are merely distorted reflections of the true world. The allegory suggests that what we perceive through our senses is just a fraction of reality, whereas the true essence of objects, illuminated under the sun, can only be grasped through reasoning. Socrates further illustrates that a philosopher acts like a prisoner who has been liberated, coming to realise that the shadows are not the real source of what is observed. Philosophers strive to comprehend and discern the profound levels of reality. However, the remaining prisoners are content in their confinement, lacking any aspiration for a life beyond, as they are unaware of anything superior. Plato's subsequent observation was that offering the truth to some is like Inserting vision into blind eyes, which in the case of the Matrix was represented by the Blue Pill. We have examined the issues around human denial in Expanding Flat Earth Thinking Part 1; The Cascade of Change and Expanding Flat Earth Thinking Part 2; The Forces of Denial.
To understand the allegory between The Matrix and Plato's Cave, watch this excellent commentary: All I’m Offering is the Truth | The Philosophy of the Matrix (youtube.com).
1.0 Taking The Red Pill
In the case of Global Forecaster's means to embrace a broader, more expansive way of thinking, seeking the fusion of lateral and linear thought depicted in our version of the Taoist Yin Yang of balance. One that offers you a new way of perceiving the human world. One that holds the potential to survive the entropic forces of change and to then create a new social balance and harmony in humanity's affairs, escaping the wheel of history by replacing old unconscious patterns of collective organisation with those shaped by greater awareness. The first step on that journey is for each of us to become more aware of which part of our brain we are using when discussing or thinking about challenging or outright threatening scenarios.
2.0 Escaping Herd Thinking
We are all, in varying ways, affected by collective group behaviour, best described as Human Herding. Linear thinking is most commonly found within the herd, and lateral thinking is outside it. This process is driven by collective dopamine and cortisol levels. Ideas outside the herd will always invoke a fear/cortisol response, which must be overcome to see a new reality, as we break the bond with group thinking to become more self-aware and separate.
3.0 The Lateral-Linear Balance Has Been Lost
All human societies are regulated by where their nation/system is on its empire curve/five-stage life cycle. Systems that are rising are driven predominantly by lateral thought processes, whilst systems in decline become increasingly linear institutional and un-adaptive, accelerating their demise. Today, the Western world is in late-stage decline and two decades of money printing have pushed the linear pendulum to an extreme position, which is unsustainable. The consequence has been The Exile Of The Laterals and the solution is Adaptation Through Lateralisation. This is essential if we want to avoid a black-and-white world devoid of colour.
4.0 How to Predict the Future
Quantum mechanics describes the future as a field of probabilities. However, the path of human affairs seems to narrow its outcomes, so at times many streams can coalesce into just one single stream, making the future predictable. Hence in a quantum mechanical universe with infinite futures, divining the future is the domain of lateral thinking, tracking many possibilities until one becomes more probable.
5.0 Lateral and Linear Thinking are two distinct cognitive approaches to problem-solving, reasoning, and creativity. Understanding the differences between these thinking styles can offer insights into how each of us approaches challenges, generate ideas, and make decisions.
We are all a mixture of right (lateral) and left (linear) thinking. But most of us allow (or have been conditioned to allow) one side of the brain to dominate our thought process, in what is known as cognitive bias. To determine your own bias, please watch this video.
Did you see the horse go forwards or backwards? If you saw it walking forwards you are more likely to be a linear thinker, and if you saw it walking backwards you are more likely to be lateral.
6.0 Lateral Thinking (Quantum)
- Creative Problem-Solving: Lateral thinkers excel at finding innovative and creative solutions to problems. They are adept at thinking "outside the box" and are not limited by traditional approaches.
- Indirect and Non-Sequential: This approach is characterised by a non-linear path to problem-solving, where the thinker jumps between ideas in a non-sequential manner, often making unexpected connections.
- Openness to Ambiguity: Lateral thinkers are comfortable with ambiguity and uncertainty, which allows them to explore a wider range of possibilities and perspectives.
- Idea Generation: They are skilled at brainstorming and generating a diverse array of ideas, often leading to novel or unconventional solutions.
- Adaptability: Lateral thinking fosters adaptability, as individuals are more willing to shift perspectives and explore new approaches when faced with obstacles.
7.0 Linear Thinking (Newtonian)
- Logical Reasoning: Linear thinkers approach problems through logical reasoning and analysis. They follow a sequential, step-by-step process to reach conclusions.
- Detail-Oriented: This thinking style is detail-oriented, focusing on the components of a problem and how they logically connect to form a solution.
- Structured Problem-Solving: Linear thinkers prefer structured environments and clear, well-defined problems where they can apply direct methods to find solutions.
- Consistency and Reliability:** They value consistency and reliability, often relying on established rules, principles, and methodologies to guide their decision-making.
- Analytical Skills: Linear thinking is associated with strong analytical skills, where individuals break down complex problems into manageable parts and solve them systematically.
While lateral and linear thinking are presented as distinct, they are not mutually exclusive. Many effective problem-solvers can employ both thinking styles depending on the situation. For example, one might use lateral thinking to generate innovative ideas and then apply linear thinking to evaluate and implement those ideas systematically. Integrating both approaches can enhance creativity, improve problem-solving skills, and lead to more effective decision-making. Recognising when and how to leverage each thinking style can be a powerful tool in both personal and professional contexts.
8.0 Combating Linear Lateral Polarisation
Today in the Western world, which is living through a late stage of decline, the collective thought process of the population and its leadership is predominantly linear. A situation characterised by an extreme level of lateral-liner polarisation in society that limits its anti-entropic potential.
To be effective, we must ideally each harness a combination of both lateral and linear thinking modes. Thus, lateral thinkers need to be taught how to think logically, which occurs when they are put through the modern educational system. However, linear thinkers can also be taught to think laterally if they pursue activities like painting that use the right side of their brains. The key is to harmonise both lateral and linear processes within ourselves and to enhance society's tolerance to lateral neural diversity and its consequent views. The best analogy is that of an air defence destroyer that has a long-range search radar (lateral) to detect and evaluate threats and a short-range radar (linear) to guide its missiles onto oncoming threats.
9.0 A Personal Experience of Taking the Red Pill
Following my recent podcast Interview: War And The Real Estate Cycle - Part II with Catherine Cashmore, she was contacted by a gentleman who stated that he was reluctant to sign up for her real estate reports because she was supporting Global Forecaster's work – and in doing so (he said), spreading fear and the message that the 'end of the world is nigh' etc. This gentleman was a 65-year-old trader who had done a lot of work on cycles, from which he makes his living via trading. In response, she sent him the interview, to which he came back with the following response.
Dear Catherine !!!
What a dark interview that has shaken me to the core and given me the strangest sensation of being 'a witness to myself '- the dawning of a deep internal realization David is right. I found myself in a state of disbelief listening to your account of the atrocities in your homeland of Israel.
I’m so sorry to hear ‘the truth’ and was moved and deeply shocked. We are all kept numb and dumb by the Western media complex
This information should be out there in its cold reality.David Murrin has woken me up!!
I was in denial… as most complacent Westerners are. And of course, this is complicit with the mentality of the hegemonic cycle of decline as described by David that lives in a state of denial. I was part of the statistic.
Catherine
THANK YOU again!
10.0 Seeking a New Balanced Lateral-Linear Logic
Each of us should have the goal of being able to think strategically and tactically with the lateral process and then implement and incrementally improve the process with linear thinking. A process we call balanced lateral-linear logic. So, in a modern world where the pendulum has swung too far to the linear way of leadership and thinking, we encourage you to take the red pill and develop your lateral applied logic to understanding the world we live in and the path ahead, by following our work at Global Forecaster. To those lateral tinkers who feel exiled and have spent their time down rabbit holes, then our linear analysis within our lateral framework will help you determine which rabbit holes are real, and which ones are false echos!
Whichever way you currently think, Global Forecaster offers you an opportunity to grow and develop from either spectrum of thought to a balance point in the middle of integrated lateral-linear thinking.
History provides us with many lessons which we can apply to today's world, as collective human behaviour has remained constant since the time of the Greeks. “The society that separates its scholars from its warriors will have its thinking done by cowards and its fighting by fools.”― Thucydides (Athenian General and Historian 400BC)
Thucydides has been dubbed the father of "scientific history" by those who accept his claims to have applied strict standards of impartiality and evidence-gathering and analysis of cause and effect. His Melian dialogue is regarded as a seminal text of international relations Theory. Today our Global Forecaster models for human behaviour have broken new ground in understanding and predicting the unfolding of our human world. So please join us on our journey of enlightenment and discovery to find better ways to navigate the inevitable entropic rapids ahead for both yourself, your family, your business, and our democratic world.
Subscribe to higher levels of subscription with Global Forecaster and expand both your lateral creative thinking and your linear logical thinking around the challenging and entropic future scenarios ahead in the world of geopolitics and global markets.
© David Murrin 2024. All images courtesy of Getty Images. |