The Fuel of Modern Empires

Brexit Part 1: Historical Perspectives

The British parliament is now approaching a historic moment. It is about to vote on May’s Chequers plan for Brexit.

It therefore seems an appropriate time to review the ‘Five Stages of Empire Principals’ to better understand the social forces at work in British society and the likely outcomes ahead.

The cycles of empire and leadership - China and Japan today

The Five Stages of Empire model describes the exponential rise of a system in the 'expansion to empire' phase, which compares sharply to the overextension and decline phases. The election of President Xi and Prime Minister Abe within a week provides a stark contrast of the underlying energy of China and Japan who are in these two very different empire phases.

Darkest before the Dawn: Part III The Economic Freedom Party, a 'no hope' party of protest

Historically, once a regional civil war has been won, it is rare that it is refought, although the feeling that it might happen again resounds through the society for generations. This, coupled with the simple fact that the EFF (Economic Freedom Fighters) is not a party of wealth distribution, will in all probability mean that they will not be the next party to lead SA after the ANC. Rather, I think of them as a catalyst that acts to weaken the ANC, hopefully as they claim within the rule of law.

The US presidential election

The horrendous events of 9/11 catalysed the ideas in Breaking the Code of History (BTCH) and the Five Stages of Empire Model interpreted 9/11 as the beginning of the decline of the American Empire.

The Olympics as a predictor of geopolitical power: Part II Observations from the 2016 Olympics

Interestingly, there is no official Olympic medal table and the methodology of how it has been unofficially calculated has varied over recent years. For the 2016 Olympics it is based simply on the number of gold medals, but in future perhaps it should have some kind of weighted average, 3 for gold, 2 for silver and 1 for bronze? That being said the 2016 Olympic table shows some fascinating linkages between sport and geopolitical power.

The Olympics as a predictor of geopolitical power: Part I Competitive games and rising empires

In humanity’s ancient past, survival was the key focus; but we are social animals, and fights would have occurred in order to resolve differences between members of a tribe. However, struggles to the death would weaken a tribe by depleting its members. Thus, we can speculate, the notion of ritualised competition as a safe channel for aggression must have arisen. With the later advent of weapons, the need to train for their use in a non-lethal way would also have been necessary.

The rise of President Xi Jinping

Those watching China will no doubt be both impressed and surprised by the rise of President Xi.

Since his arrival he has conducted a powerful and relentless drive to remove corruption, using the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection (CCDI). This far reaching campaign has in reality been a cloak to consolidate Xi's power as head of the party, PLA, and government.This policy has been paralleled by his increasing control over the media and growing personality cult which has nicknamed him Uncle Xi or Xi Dada.

Obama's Iran deal; the road to hell is paved with good intentions

Whilst Obama's pivot to Asia and strengthened alliance with Japan should be considered as both wise and a geopolitical necessity, the US President has during the past year made two appalling blunders that have potentially disastrous consequences. The first was his intervention in Ukraine which resulted in pushing Russia into the arms of China. The second has been his determination to pursue a nuclear deal with Iran. A deal that preserves Iran’s ability to at short notice deploy nuclear weapons.

What next for Britain? Part II

In 2014-09-23 11:22 I wrote A well-educated electorate allows the majority of voters to understand the logic behind complex arguments that they are expected to vote on." In this regard this election has demonstrated the wisdom of the British electorate, in choosing the appropriate leadership for the nation’s growth cycle.

What next for Britain? Part I

The five stages of Empire model for a democracy recognise that there are two fundamental drivers to the political forces within a society. On the one hand, the forces of wealth creation for the nation, and on the other, the forces of wealth distribution to the people. These two forces interact with each other differently according to their location on the cycle. On the way up during expansion there is a greater propensity to wealth creation (and expansion), and on the way down to wealth distribution (and inward looking policies).

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