The below Update String follows on from 

Iran’s War on Israel 11; Imminent Nuclear Breakout and the IDF and American Response ,

and can be followed at  

WW3 66: Trump Will Go To War with Iran

 

 

22 JUNE 2025: THE IRAN–ISRAEL WAR – GF ANALYSIS DAY 10 (17.00hrs BST)

Markets-Post US Strike

Following the U.S. strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, we have reached the point where geopolitical conflict is now directly impacting global markets. With the threat and soon-to-be reality that the Gulf will soon be closed, oil and LNG  prices are expected to jump higher, and the market and economic ramifications are immediate and severe. Unlike targeted airstrikes, maintaining the Gulf's open status is an entirely different challenge. Even if the military campaign proceeds as planned, it will likely take weeks to dismantle the Iranian forces obstructing the waterway with naval mines and missile systems.

1.0 OPERATION MIDNIGHT HAMMER

The US caught the world by surprise, but not those who follow Murrinations Gold! Because, as predicted in WW3 66: Trump Will Go To War with Iran, just seven hours later, early on Sunday morning, UK time, the United States launched a decisive military strike. B-2 stealth bombers, flying non-stop for 37 hours from their base in Missouri, were refuelled multiple times mid-air en route to Iran. Their mission: to obliterate what remained of Iran’s nuclear infrastructure.

1. Trump's Announcement

At 7:50 PM Eastern (12:50 AM UK), President Trump made a formal announcement via his Truth Social platform:

“We have completed our very successful attack on the three Nuclear sites in Iran, including Fordow, Natanz, and Esfahan. All planes are now outside of Iran's airspace.”

He declared the strikes a “spectacular success” and claimed that Iran’s nuclear program had been “completely and totally obliterated.” Trump further warned that unless Iran seeks peace, the U.S. would not hesitate to escalate:

“Future attacks will be far greater and a lot easier. There will be either peace or there will be tragedy for Iran, far greater than we have witnessed over the last eight days. Remember, there are many targets left.”

2. According to a briefing by General Dan Cain,

Operation Midnight Hammer began with a carefully orchestrated deception. A single B-2 Spirit bomber flew west, openly and visibly, appearing to head toward Guam and then the Chagos Islands, suggesting prepositioning for a future strike. Meanwhile, the real operation was unfolding in the opposite direction.

In a highly classified manoeuvre, seven B-2 bombers flew eastward over the Atlantic, en route to strike Iranian targets. These aircraft received multiple in-flight refuels and were accompanied as they neared the target zone by a combination of 4th and 5th generation fighters executing SEAD (Suppression of Enemy Air Defences) and DEAD (Destruction of Enemy Air Defences) missions. Their purpose was to ensure there were no active air defences that could impede the bombers, though in reality, such systems were likely neutralised already, given that the IDF had long achieved air dominance over the region.

One curious note is the presence of 4th-generation fighters on the mission, as stealth aircraft like the F-22 and F-35 would have been more suitable in such a high-risk environment.  However, F16S would have been confused by any Iranian defences, with IDF F16S not necessarily giving the game away.

Simultaneously, an Ohio-class U.S. Navy missile submarine (probably from outside the Gulf)  launched 30 Tomahawk Land Attack Missiles (TLAMs) targeting surface infrastructure at Natanz. These impacts were timed to occur after the B-2s had completed their bombing runs and exited the region.

3. Strike Details- so far

• Six B-2s targeted the deeply buried Fordow and Isfahan nuclear facilities, each carrying two GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrators (MOPs). Dropping the second on the same GPS coordinates as the first drop.
• One B-2 targeted the deep structures at Natanz, followed by the TLAM strike that destroyed surface facilities
• In total, approximately 75 munitions were employed:
  • 14 GBU-57 MOPs (notably, this leaves only 6 in the current US inventory)
  • 30 TLAMs
  • 31 other munitions not yet officially detailed

General Cain commented on two aspects of the mission that we consider slightly overhyped and incorrect, respectively.

1. The overstated risk of the operation: He noted that the B-2 bombers could likely have flown in and out of Iranian airspace safely, even if Iran's air defences had remained fully intact before the IDF’s initial strikes earlier in the week.
2. Operational security was high: Although the mission was deemed tightly held, two key details arguably gave it away to Global Forecaster well beforehand:
   • Public knowledge that B-2 bombers were airborne, flying west over the Pacific.
   • Trump’s uncharacteristic decision to return to the White House over the weekend, a move interpreted as positioning himself close to the Situation Room for real-time oversight, signalled that a significant operation was imminent

2.0 POTENTIAL HICCUPS IN THE HIGH FIVES

Much as Trump would like to think otherwise, War is not a predictable endeavour in which the enemy behaves exactly as anticipated and is then easily defeated. Therefore, we must ask: What plans did the Iranians devise to mitigate the high probability of GBU-57 strikes on their site? One thing is certain—they had, and likely still have, a plan.

1. Fordow is shielded by half a mile of rock, according to Rafael Grossi, head of the UN’s nuclear energy watchdog, who has visited the site. This raises questions about whether the U.S. strikes were as effective as Trump has claimed. It also explains why some analysts have doubted whether the site can be destroyed from the air at all—unless nuclear ground penetrators were used.
2. While the centrifuge halls at Fordow may have been destroyed, severely hampering Iran’s enrichment capabilities, it is possible that some centrifuges were relocated beforehand. Satellite imagery in recent days showed convoys departing the facility, suggesting a deliberate effort to safeguard key assets ahead of the attack. Iranian officials claim they moved most of the highly enriched uranium off-site and evacuated staff well before the strike.
3. Where is the stockpile of 60% enriched uranium? We must assume it wasn’t left in an obvious target area—unless enrichment was continuing toward 90% right up until the last minute.
4. Iran’s Secret Enrichment Facility In a significant revelation, Iran reportedly informed the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) of a previously undisclosed uranium enrichment facility. Details remain limited, but the site is believed to have been operating covertly, outside the framework of regular IAEA inspections and monitoring agreements. The facility, whose location has not been officially confirmed, is suspected to be buried underground and heavily fortified—similar in design to Iran’s Fordow site. Intelligence sources suggest it may have been enriching uranium to levels well beyond the 60% threshold seen at other known sites, potentially approaching weapons-grade material. At the time this disclosure raised serious concerns about Iran’s nuclear transparency and intentions, killing diplomatic efforts. But more importantly where is  the site and is it in operation-if so its destruction is a singular priority.
5. Conclusion Because the military action was so delayed—largely due to Trump’s determination to pursue negotiations—there is now a considerable risk that Iran still possesses much of its 60% enriched uranium, and some of it may already have reached 90%. If that’s the case, the question becomes: does Iran also possess a miniaturised warhead capable of deploying it? These major unknowns are likely to drive the escalation into a full-scale conflict with Iran in the days ahead.

3.0 NO RADIATION SPIKE, SAYS UN

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the UN’s nuclear watchdog, reported no detected increase in radiation levels following the bombings of the three atomic sites, easing immediate fears of environmental fallout. However, that might mean that the uranium is buried dergrounded deep undergroud, or that it had been moved before the US strikes.

4.0 IRAN RESPONDS WITH THREATS

Iran’s Foreign Ministry issued a sharp condemnation, vowing to defend the nation “by all force and means”:“The war-mongering and lawless regime of the United States of America is held fully responsible for the dangerous consequences and far-reaching implications of this egregious act of aggression and heinous crime.”Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, the highest-ranking Iranian official to respond, accused the U.S. of a grave breach of international law:“The US has committed a grave violation of the UN Charter, international law, and the Non-Proliferation Treaty by attacking Iran’s peaceful nuclear installations. These events are outrageous and will have everlasting consequences. Every member of the UN must be alarmed by this extremely dangerous, lawless, and criminal behavior.”

5.0 KHAMENEI WILL NOT SURRENDER SO THERE WILL BE WAR IN THE GULF

The expansion of the Iranian empire once appeared unstoppable — until Hamas’s attack on Israel on October 7, 2023. In the months since, the tide has turned. The Islamic Revolution, long pushing outward through proxies and influence, has been forced back to its core on the Persian plateau under the weight of sustained Israeli military pressure.

Yet, when Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei issues defiant warnings from his bunker, they should not be mistaken for the empty bluster of men like Muammar Gaddafi or Saddam Hussein — autocrats whose bravado evaporated as their inner circles crumbled. Khamenei is no Assad either; he will not barter away power in exchange for a quiet exile. A man who has lived his life in service to what he believes is a divine mission will see martyrdom not as a failure, but as fulfilment.

A keen amateur historian, Khamenei’s animosity toward the West — and Britain in particular — is deeply rooted in memory and ideology. He recalls bitterly how Britain dominated Iran’s politics for decades without ever formally colonising it. He reserves particular contempt for the last Shah’s father, Reza Shah, who was elevated by the British only to be cast aside when he backed the Germans during World War II.

In a telling public speech, Khamenei recounted the moment Reza Shah was ordered to leave Iran by the British. His tone was not bombastic, but intimate, like a grandfather recounting hard truths. “They told him to go,” he said, “and he went! Can you imagine a greater humiliation for a country?” Then, addressing the long-dead monarch directly: “If you’re a man... if you possess a drop of spunk, you’d say, ‘I won’t go!’ You’d let them kill you!”

That sentiment — a fusion of national dignity, historical grievance, and theological conviction — now defines Khamenei’s state of mind as the war edges closer to Iran’s heartland. We should expect him to lead Iran to fight back. The first signal came from Major General Kowsari, a member of the Parliament's National Security Commission, who stated: “The Parliament has reached the conclusion that the Strait of Hormuz should be closed, but the final decision rests with the Supreme National Security Council.”

6.0 PREDICTION: THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ WILL BECOME A BATTLEZONE

The strategic waters of the Gulf are now at imminent risk of closure, with strong indications that Iran will move to block the Strait of Hormuz in the coming days. This follows the unexplained sinking of a U.S.-associated container ship and a subsequent HIGH threat advisory issued by the Joint Maritime Intelligence Centre (JMIC) for all U.S.-linked commercial shipping in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. The advisory reflects a rapidly deteriorating security environment driven by escalating hostilities between the United States, Israel, and Iran.

The Iranian parliament has now formally approved the closure of the strait—a vital maritime chokepoint through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil and gas supply flows. While the final decision lies with Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, official statements from senior Revolutionary Guard figures have made clear that the closure is not only under serious consideration but "will be done whenever necessary."

This move, if enacted, would mark a major escalation in the conflict and could have sweeping global consequences. A closure of the Strait would disrupt international energy markets, drive a spike in oil prices, and risk temporarily trapping U.S. naval assets in the Persian Gulf. It would also signal Iran’s intent to fully leverage its geographic advantage in response to U.S. airstrikes on its nuclear facilities and the broader campaign being waged by Israel.

Further fueling the urgency is a public threat issued by Houthi leadership on June 21, warning of direct retaliation against U.S.-affiliated maritime assets. This underscores a coordinated regional strategy aligned with Iranian interests, using asymmetric naval warfare—including mines, drones, and anti-ship missiles—to target Western-aligned commercial vessels.

Given these developments, it is increasingly likely that Iran will proceed with closing the Strait of Hormuz in the near future, ushering in a new phase of confrontation with far-reaching geopolitical and economic consequences.

7.0 ASKING RUSSIAN FRIENDS FOR HELP

Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, is set to travel to Moscow tomorrow for a high-stakes meeting with President Vladimir Putin following the recent U.S. strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities. Describing Russia as a “friend of Iran,” Araghchi issued a stark warning that “all options are on the table” as Tehran considers its response, vowing to defend its security, interests, and people. Speaking at a press conference in Istanbul, he emphasised the close coordination between the two nations, stating, “We always consult with each other.” The visit raises serious concerns in Western capitals over the nature of support Moscow might offer, ranging from the provision of advanced defence systems to direct military involvement or intensified diplomatic backing. As Iran recalibrates its next steps, its deepening alignment with Russia could signal a dangerous new phase in the regional conflict. One area that is at risk is if Russia provide miniaturisation technology for Iranian uranium that has already been enriched to 90% and which might have survived the strikes

 

Markets-Post US Strike

Following the U.S. strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, we have reached the point where geopolitical conflict is now directly impacting global markets. With the threat and soon-to-be reality that the Gulf will soon be closed, oil and LNG  prices are expected to jump higher, and the market and economic ramifications are immediate and severe. Unlike targeted airstrikes, maintaining the Gulf's open status is an entirely different challenge. Even if the military campaign proceeds as planned, it will likely take weeks to dismantle the Iranian forces obstructing the waterway with naval mines and missile systems.

1.0 OPERATION MIDNIGHT HAMMER

The US caught the world by surprise, but not those who follow Murrinations Gold! Because, as predicted in WW3 66: Trump Will Go To War with Iran, just seven hours later, early on Sunday morning, UK time, the United States launched a decisive military strike. B-2 stealth bombers, flying non-stop for 37 hours from their base in Missouri, were refuelled multiple times mid-air en route to Iran. Their mission: to obliterate what remained of Iran’s nuclear infrastructure.

1. Trump's Announcement

At 7:50 PM Eastern (12:50 AM UK), President Trump made a formal announcement via his Truth Social platform:

“We have completed our very successful attack on the three Nuclear sites in Iran, including Fordow, Natanz, and Esfahan. All planes are now outside of Iran's airspace.”

He declared the strikes a “spectacular success” and claimed that Iran’s nuclear program had been “completely and totally obliterated.” Trump further warned that unless Iran seeks peace, the U.S. would not hesitate to escalate:

“Future attacks will be far greater and a lot easier. There will be either peace or there will be tragedy for Iran, far greater than we have witnessed over the last eight days. Remember, there are many targets left.”

2. According to a briefing by General Dan Cain,

Operation Midnight Hammer began with a carefully orchestrated deception. A single B-2 Spirit bomber flew west, openly and visibly, appearing to head toward Guam and then the Chagos Islands, suggesting prepositioning for a future strike. Meanwhile, the real operation was unfolding in the opposite direction.

In a highly classified manoeuvre, seven B-2 bombers flew eastward over the Atlantic, en route to strike Iranian targets. These aircraft received multiple in-flight refuels and were accompanied as they neared the target zone by a combination of 4th and 5th generation fighters executing SEAD (Suppression of Enemy Air Defences) and DEAD (Destruction of Enemy Air Defences) missions. Their purpose was to ensure there were no active air defences that could impede the bombers, though in reality, such systems were likely neutralised already, given that the IDF had long achieved air dominance over the region.

One curious note is the presence of 4th-generation fighters on the mission, as stealth aircraft like the F-22 and F-35 would have been more suitable in such a high-risk environment.  However, F16S would have been confused by any Iranian defences, with IDF F16S not necessarily giving the game away.

Simultaneously, an Ohio-class U.S. Navy missile submarine (probably from outside the Gulf)  launched 30 Tomahawk Land Attack Missiles (TLAMs) targeting surface infrastructure at Natanz. These impacts were timed to occur after the B-2s had completed their bombing runs and exited the region.

3. Strike Details- so far

• Six B-2s targeted the deeply buried Fordow and Isfahan nuclear facilities, each carrying two GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrators (MOPs). Dropping the second on the same GPS coordinates as the first drop.
• One B-2 targeted the deep structures at Natanz, followed by the TLAM strike that destroyed surface facilities
• In total, approximately 75 munitions were employed:
  • 14 GBU-57 MOPs (notably, this leaves only 6 in the current US inventory)
  • 30 TLAMs
  • 31 other munitions not yet officially detailed

General Cain commented on two aspects of the mission that we consider slightly overhyped and incorrect, respectively.

1. The overstated risk of the operation: He noted that the B-2 bombers could likely have flown in and out of Iranian airspace safely, even if Iran's air defences had remained fully intact before the IDF’s initial strikes earlier in the week.
2. Operational security was high: Although the mission was deemed tightly held, two key details arguably gave it away to Global Forecaster well beforehand:
   • Public knowledge that B-2 bombers were airborne, flying west over the Pacific.
   • Trump’s uncharacteristic decision to return to the White House over the weekend, a move interpreted as positioning himself close to the Situation Room for real-time oversight, signalled that a significant operation was imminent

2.0 POTENTIAL HICCUPS IN THE HIGH FIVES

Much as Trump would like to think otherwise, War is not a predictable endeavour in which the enemy behaves exactly as anticipated and is then easily defeated. Therefore, we must ask: What plans did the Iranians devise to mitigate the high probability of GBU-57 strikes on their site? One thing is certain—they had, and likely still have, a plan.

1. Fordow is shielded by half a mile of rock, according to Rafael Grossi, head of the UN’s nuclear energy watchdog, who has visited the site. This raises questions about whether the U.S. strikes were as effective as Trump has claimed. It also explains why some analysts have doubted whether the site can be destroyed from the air at all—unless nuclear ground penetrators were used.
2. While the centrifuge halls at Fordow may have been destroyed, severely hampering Iran’s enrichment capabilities, it is possible that some centrifuges were relocated beforehand. Satellite imagery in recent days showed convoys departing the facility, suggesting a deliberate effort to safeguard key assets ahead of the attack. Iranian officials claim they moved most of the highly enriched uranium off-site and evacuated staff well before the strike.
3. Where is the stockpile of 60% enriched uranium? We must assume it wasn’t left in an obvious target area—unless enrichment was continuing toward 90% right up until the last minute.
4. Iran’s Secret Enrichment Facility In a significant revelation, Iran reportedly informed the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) of a previously undisclosed uranium enrichment facility. Details remain limited, but the site is believed to have been operating covertly, outside the framework of regular IAEA inspections and monitoring agreements. The facility, whose location has not been officially confirmed, is suspected to be buried underground and heavily fortified—similar in design to Iran’s Fordow site. Intelligence sources suggest it may have been enriching uranium to levels well beyond the 60% threshold seen at other known sites, potentially approaching weapons-grade material. At the time this disclosure raised serious concerns about Iran’s nuclear transparency and intentions, killing diplomatic efforts. But more importantly where is  the site and is it in operation-if so its destruction is a singular priority.
5. Conclusion Because the military action was so delayed—largely due to Trump’s determination to pursue negotiations—there is now a considerable risk that Iran still possesses much of its 60% enriched uranium, and some of it may already have reached 90%. If that’s the case, the question becomes: does Iran also possess a miniaturised warhead capable of deploying it? These major unknowns are likely to drive the escalation into a full-scale conflict with Iran in the days ahead.

3.0 NO RADIATION SPIKE, SAYS UN

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the UN’s nuclear watchdog, reported no detected increase in radiation levels following the bombings of the three atomic sites, easing immediate fears of environmental fallout. However, that might mean that the uranium is buried dergrounded deep undergroud, or that it had been moved before the US strikes.

4.0 IRAN RESPONDS WITH THREATS

Iran’s Foreign Ministry issued a sharp condemnation, vowing to defend the nation “by all force and means”:“The war-mongering and lawless regime of the United States of America is held fully responsible for the dangerous consequences and far-reaching implications of this egregious act of aggression and heinous crime.”Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, the highest-ranking Iranian official to respond, accused the U.S. of a grave breach of international law:“The US has committed a grave violation of the UN Charter, international law, and the Non-Proliferation Treaty by attacking Iran’s peaceful nuclear installations. These events are outrageous and will have everlasting consequences. Every member of the UN must be alarmed by this extremely dangerous, lawless, and criminal behavior.”

5.0 KHAMENEI WILL NOT SURRENDER SO THERE WILL BE WAR IN THE GULF

The expansion of the Iranian empire once appeared unstoppable — until Hamas’s attack on Israel on October 7, 2023. In the months since, the tide has turned. The Islamic Revolution, long pushing outward through proxies and influence, has been forced back to its core on the Persian plateau under the weight of sustained Israeli military pressure.

Yet, when Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei issues defiant warnings from his bunker, they should not be mistaken for the empty bluster of men like Muammar Gaddafi or Saddam Hussein — autocrats whose bravado evaporated as their inner circles crumbled. Khamenei is no Assad either; he will not barter away power in exchange for a quiet exile. A man who has lived his life in service to what he believes is a divine mission will see martyrdom not as a failure, but as fulfilment.

A keen amateur historian, Khamenei’s animosity toward the West — and Britain in particular — is deeply rooted in memory and ideology. He recalls bitterly how Britain dominated Iran’s politics for decades without ever formally colonising it. He reserves particular contempt for the last Shah’s father, Reza Shah, who was elevated by the British only to be cast aside when he backed the Germans during World War II.

In a telling public speech, Khamenei recounted the moment Reza Shah was ordered to leave Iran by the British. His tone was not bombastic, but intimate, like a grandfather recounting hard truths. “They told him to go,” he said, “and he went! Can you imagine a greater humiliation for a country?” Then, addressing the long-dead monarch directly: “If you’re a man... if you possess a drop of spunk, you’d say, ‘I won’t go!’ You’d let them kill you!”

That sentiment — a fusion of national dignity, historical grievance, and theological conviction — now defines Khamenei’s state of mind as the war edges closer to Iran’s heartland. We should expect him to lead Iran to fight back. The first signal came from Major General Kowsari, a member of the Parliament's National Security Commission, who stated: “The Parliament has reached the conclusion that the Strait of Hormuz should be closed, but the final decision rests with the Supreme National Security Council.”

6.0 PREDICTION: THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ WILL BECOME A BATTLEZONE

The strategic waters of the Gulf are now at imminent risk of closure, with strong indications that Iran will move to block the Strait of Hormuz in the coming days. This follows the unexplained sinking of a U.S.-associated container ship and a subsequent HIGH threat advisory issued by the Joint Maritime Intelligence Centre (JMIC) for all U.S.-linked commercial shipping in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. The advisory reflects a rapidly deteriorating security environment driven by escalating hostilities between the United States, Israel, and Iran.

The Iranian parliament has now formally approved the closure of the strait—a vital maritime chokepoint through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil and gas supply flows. While the final decision lies with Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, official statements from senior Revolutionary Guard figures have made clear that the closure is not only under serious consideration but "will be done whenever necessary."

This move, if enacted, would mark a major escalation in the conflict and could have sweeping global consequences. A closure of the Strait would disrupt international energy markets, drive a spike in oil prices, and risk temporarily trapping U.S. naval assets in the Persian Gulf. It would also signal Iran’s intent to fully leverage its geographic advantage in response to U.S. airstrikes on its nuclear facilities and the broader campaign being waged by Israel.

Further fueling the urgency is a public threat issued by Houthi leadership on June 21, warning of direct retaliation against U.S.-affiliated maritime assets. This underscores a coordinated regional strategy aligned with Iranian interests, using asymmetric naval warfare—including mines, drones, and anti-ship missiles—to target Western-aligned commercial vessels.

Given these developments, it is increasingly likely that Iran will proceed with closing the Strait of Hormuz in the near future, ushering in a new phase of confrontation with far-reaching geopolitical and economic consequences.

7.0 ASKING RUSSIAN AND CHINESE FRIENDS FOR HELP

Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, is set to travel to Moscow tomorrow for a high-stakes meeting with President Vladimir Putin following the recent U.S. strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities. Describing Russia as a “friend of Iran,” Araghchi issued a stark warning that “all options are on the table” as Tehran considers its response, vowing to defend its security, interests, and people. Speaking at a press conference in Istanbul, he emphasised the close coordination between the two nations, stating, “We always consult with each other.” The visit raises serious concerns in Western capitals over the nature of support Moscow might offer, ranging from the provision of advanced defence systems to direct military involvement or intensified diplomatic backing. As Iran recalibrates its next steps, its deepening alignment with Russia could signal a dangerous new phase in the regional conflict. One area that is at risk is if Russia provide miniaturisation technology for Iranian uranium that has already been enriched to 90% and which might have survived the strikes.

 

Two Chinese electronic surveillance ships, designated 855 and 815A, have been confirmed operating in the region. These vessels are not commercial or humanitarian in nature—they are advanced military intelligence platforms, specifically designed to intercept, decode, and monitor electronic signals across air, sea, and land. Their deployment is not symbolic; it is a calculated strategic move, signaling China’s active interest and potential involvement in the unfolding regional dynamics.

 

8.0 A NEW IRANIAN REGIME IN WAITING?

John Bolton, former National Security Adviser to Trump, stated that the recent U.S. strikes have left Iran “on the verge” of regime change. We are less certain, as the current regime still appears to have significant fight left in it. But if regime change is indeed on the horizon, the key question becomes: who are the potential candidates to take over?

From exile near Washington, D.C., Reza Pahlavi—the son of the last Shah and grandson of Reza Shah, whom Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei despises with deep, historic contempt—has reemerged as a vocal opponent of the Islamic Republic. Seizing the moment as Israeli airstrikes pound Iran’s military infrastructure, Pahlavi has called on the Iranian people to rise up, to see this moment of external pressure as an opportunity to throw off their theocratic rulers. He has urged Iranians to take back their country from what he calls a tyrannical regime that has driven the nation into economic ruin, political isolation, and cultural repression. There is truth in his appeal. Millions of Iranians, especially among the youth, loathe Khamenei and the hardline clerical establishment. They blame him for decades of authoritarian rule, brutal crackdowns, and the suffocation of hope. The Islamic Republic's failures—from its mismanagement of the economy to its heavy-handed repression of dissent—have made the regime deeply unpopular with large segments of the population.

Yet history weighs heavily on the future. Pahlavi may speak of freedom and reform, but his lineage is a double-edged sword. His father, Mohammad Reza Shah, fled Iran in 1979 at the height of the Islamic Revolution, and his grandfather Reza Shah abdicated under Allied pressure in 1941. For all of Khamenei’s brutality, many Iranians may still see him as the devil they know. Faced with the choice between a foreign-supported heir to the monarchy and a homegrown despot, even some opponents of the regime may cling to what remains of national sovereignty, however oppressive.

From afar, Pahlavi taunts Khamenei, calling him a "rat in his lair," hidden deep in a bunker as the storm of war gathers. But behind the bravado lies a quiet acknowledgement: unlike his royal forebears, Khamenei is unlikely to flee. He sees himself not as a ruler to be toppled but as a martyr-in-waiting, a guardian of divine revolution, prepared to die rather than surrender. That is a far more dangerous—and resilient—adversary.

If a post-Khamenei Iran is to emerge, it will not be handed to Reza Pahlavi on a platter. The path ahead will require not just rhetoric from exile, but courageous action within—a rising from within the country, not over it. Only then can the vision of a new Iran, free from both theocratic tyranny and foreign dependency, begin to take shape.

9.0 COMMENTARY AND REACTION

• Sources close to the Trump administration emphasised that the strike was not a contradiction of his campaign pledge, but a reaffirmation of the doctrine of “peace through strength.” One former official noted:“Trump remains a dealmaker first, but he understands that the strongest deals are forged when opponents are negotiating from a position of weakness.”
• In Israel, the response was swift and supportive. Former Defence Minister Benny Gantz praised the move as a “historic decision”:“This action makes the world, the Middle East, and Israel safer places. I extend my profound appreciation to President Trump and the American people for their leadership and unwavering support of Israel, particularly tonight, in the face of the Iranian regime.”
• UK Labour leader Keir Starmer also cautiously endorsed the strikes, stating:“The U.S. acted to alleviate a grave threat posed by Iran’s nuclear ambitions to international security.”
• Gabriel Noronha, a former State Department adviser on Iran during Trump’s first term, added:“This is not a pinprick operation. Trump is going all in—this is the finishing blow to the Iranian nuclear program. He owns this moment, and he deserves the credit for it.”
• A deathly silence was heard from the arab world, who are quietly breathing a sigh of relief.

8.0 A NEW IRANIAN REGIME IN WAITING?

John Bolton, former National Security Adviser to Trump, stated that the recent U.S. strikes have left Iran “on the verge” of regime change. We are less certain, as the current regime still appears to have significant fight left in it. But if regime change is indeed on the horizon, the key question becomes: who are the potential candidates to take over?

From exile near Washington, D.C., Reza Pahlavi—the son of the last Shah and grandson of Reza Shah, whom Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei despises with deep, historic contempt—has reemerged as a vocal opponent of the Islamic Republic. Seizing the moment as Israeli airstrikes pound Iran’s military infrastructure, Pahlavi has called on the Iranian people to rise up, to see this moment of external pressure as an opportunity to throw off their theocratic rulers. He has urged Iranians to take back their country from what he calls a tyrannical regime that has driven the nation into economic ruin, political isolation, and cultural repression. There is truth in his appeal. Millions of Iranians, especially among the youth, loathe Khamenei and the hardline clerical establishment. They blame him for decades of authoritarian rule, brutal crackdowns, and the suffocation of hope. The Islamic Republic's failures—from its mismanagement of the economy to its heavy-handed repression of dissent—have made the regime deeply unpopular with large segments of the population.

Yet history weighs heavily on the future. Pahlavi may speak of freedom and reform, but his lineage is a double-edged sword. His father, Mohammad Reza Shah, fled Iran in 1979 at the height of the Islamic Revolution, and his grandfather Reza Shah abdicated under Allied pressure in 1941. For all of Khamenei’s brutality, many Iranians may still see him as the devil they know. Faced with the choice between a foreign-supported heir to the monarchy and a homegrown despot, even some opponents of the regime may cling to what remains of national sovereignty—however oppressive.

From afar, Pahlavi taunts Khamenei, calling him a "rat in his lair," hidden deep in a bunker as the storm of war gathers. But behind the bravado lies a quiet acknowledgement: unlike his royal forebears, Khamenei is unlikely to flee. He sees himself not as a ruler to be toppled but as a martyr-in-waiting, a guardian of divine revolution, prepared to die rather than surrender. That is a far more dangerous—and resilient—adversary.

If a post-Khamenei Iran is to emerge, it will not be handed to Reza Pahlavi on a platter. The path ahead will require not just rhetoric from exile, but courageous action within—a rising from within the country, not over it. Only then can the vision of a new Iran, free from both theocratic tyranny and foreign dependency, begin to take shape.

9.0 COMMENTARY AND REACTION

• Sources close to the Trump administration emphasised that the strike was not a contradiction of his campaign pledge, but a reaffirmation of the doctrine of “peace through strength.” One former official noted:“Trump remains a dealmaker first, but he understands that the strongest deals are forged when opponents are negotiating from a position of weakness.”
• In Israel, the response was swift and supportive. Former Defence Minister Benny Gantz praised the move as a “historic decision”:“This action makes the world, the Middle East, and Israel safer places. I extend my profound appreciation to President Trump and the American people for their leadership and unwavering support of Israel, particularly tonight, in the face of the Iranian regime.”
• UK Labour leader Keir Starmer also cautiously endorsed the strikes, stating:“The U.S. acted to alleviate a grave threat posed by Iran’s nuclear ambitions to international security.”
• Gabriel Noronha, a former State Department adviser on Iran during Trump’s first term, added:“This is not a pinprick operation. Trump is going all in—this is the finishing blow to the Iranian nuclear program. He owns this moment, and he deserves the credit for it.”
• A deathly silence was heard from the arab world, who are quietly breathing a sigh of relief.

 

 

22 JUNE 2025: THE IRAN–ISRAEL WAR – GF ANALYSIS DAY 9

 

1.0 IDF strikes and Iranian Missile attacks continue

Israeli strikes continue to focus not only on Iran’s military infrastructure but also on institutions central to internal security and social control, targeting the regime's coercive apparatus in a way that could erode its stability over time.

 

2.0 Container Ship Sinks in Arabian Sea Near Oman Amid Escalating Regional Conflict

A container ship has sunk in the Arabian Sea off the coast of Oman, according to a statement released early Saturday by Oman’s Maritime Security Centre (MSC), a 24/7 national operations hub overseen by the Royal Navy of Oman and the Ministry of Defence.The vessel, identified as the Phoenix 15, went down under circumstances that remain unclear. Authorities have yet to confirm whether the sinking was the result of mechanical failure, human error, or a deliberate act such as a missile or drone strike. However, the timing of the incident has raised immediate suspicions, coming as the Israel–Iran conflict enters its ninth day and tensions in the region continue to escalate.

The sinking heightens concerns over the vulnerability of commercial shipping lanes, particularly in and around the strategic chokepoints of the Arabian Sea, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Bab el-Mandeb. These waters are vital for global trade, especially for the transport of oil, gas, and container goods.With regional hostilities threatening to spill over into maritime domains, the incident may signal a growing trend of indirect or proxy targeting of commercial vessels, potentially aimed at disrupting global supply chains and pressuring international actors.Omani and international maritime authorities are expected to increase patrols and surveillance in the area as investigations into the cause of the sinking continue.

 

3.0 Iranian Resilience Measures in Preparation for Potential U.S. Strikes

In response to intensifying Israeli military strikes and the looming possibility of U.S. intervention, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has initiated a series of unprecedented emergency measures aimed at ensuring regime continuity. According to Iranian sources cited by The New York Times on June 21, Khamenei has relocated to a secure underground facility, suspended all digital communications, and now issues directives to senior commanders exclusively through a trusted intermediary.

In a further sign of contingency planning, Khamenei has reportedly named three senior clerics as candidates to succeed him in the event of his death, bypassing the formal constitutional process of the Assembly of Experts. He has also designated successors for key military commanders and ordered top officials to operate from fortified underground locations while avoiding the use of mobile phones, likely to prevent surveillance or targeting.

These steps represent the first documented case of the Supreme Leader taking direct action to plan for succession outside Iran’s established institutional framework, underscoring the seriousness with which the regime views the current threat environment.Given Khamenei’s ideological rigidity, it is likely that his chosen successors share his hardline views and commitment to the revolutionary framework of the Islamic Republic. Meanwhile, Israeli strikes continue to focus not only on Iran’s military infrastructure but also on institutions central to internal security and social control—targeting the regime's coercive apparatus in a way that could erode its stability over time.

 

4.0 RAF Base Targeted in Suspected Iran Spy Plot

With the air war against Iran intensifying, it comes as little surprise that both U.S. and UK military installations are now under increased scrutiny. In a serious escalation, a British national has been arrested in Cyprus on suspicion of spying on behalf of Iran, specifically targeting RAF Akrotiri—one of the UK’s most strategically important air bases.

The suspect, who remains unnamed, was taken into custody on Saturday after appearing in court. He faces charges related to espionage and terrorism, with foreign intelligence services reportedly warning that he may have been planning an imminent terror attack, according to Israel’s Channel 12.Local Cypriot media have identified the man as being of Azerbaijani descent, with alleged ties to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). He had been observed frequenting the vicinity of RAF Akrotiri on a near-daily basis, equipped with a camera fitted with a magnifying lens and carrying three mobile phones—strong indicators of surveillance activity.

Phileleftheros, Cyprus’s largest newspaper, reported that his behaviour had raised red flags over several weeks, prompting closer monitoring and eventual intervention by security authorities.RAF Akrotiri has played a pivotal role in supporting allied air operations in the Middle East, making it a high-value intelligence target. The arrest underscores the growing reach of Iranian-linked espionage efforts and the risks faced by Western military infrastructure as the regional conflict deepens.

We expect more Iranian 5^th column activities over the days ahead as the war intensifies.

 

21 JUNE 2025: THE IRAN–ISRAEL WAR – GF ANALYSIS DAY 8

1.0 Trump Signals Reluctance for Ground War in Iran, Holds Firm on Israel’s Offensive

• Trump appeared to rule out the deployment of U.S. ground forces in Iran, stating, “Well, I’m not going to talk about ground forces. The last thing you want to do is ground force,” in response to a question about whether an air campaign alone could stop Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Regarding his earlier comment about giving Iran a two-week window before potential U.S. military action, Trump clarified, “We’re going to see what that period of time is, but I’m giving them a period of time, and I would say two weeks would be the maximum.”
• Meanwhile, Trump also indicated he had no plans to pressure Israel to halt its ongoing airstrikes to make space for negotiations with Tehran. “I think it’s very hard to make that request right now,” he said. “If somebody is winning, it’s a little bit harder to do than if somebody is losing. But we’re ready, willing, and able—and we’ve been speaking to Iran. We’ll see what happens. “While Trump acknowledged that he might support a ceasefire under certain conditions, he added: “It’s very hard to stop when you look at it. Israel’s doing well in terms of war, and I think you would say that Iran is doing less well. It’s a little bit hard to get somebody to stop.”
• Trump’s Two-Week Delay: Driven By Strategy or Narcissism? Trump’s decision to delay potential U.S. military action against Iran by two weeks is driven by multiple factors. Tactically, it allows the U.S. military time to consolidate its forces and refine combat plans. Politically, it buys time to build consensus within the MAGA movement and, to a lesser extent, among European allies. But this delay also serves a deeper, more personal purpose. For Trump, it’s a grand narcissistic play—a chance to place himself at the centre of global attention, with the world hanging on his every word. It’s not about what’s best for America, Israel, or international stability. This delay is less about diplomacy and more about theatrical dominance—a calculated move to feed his need for adoration and control the narrative on the world stage. His primary concern is personal: how can he be seen to win and certainly not be humiliated by Iran? We argue that this later consideration will, with high probability, result in American airstrikes. However, a smaller probability outcome is the Trumps give the IDF GBU-57s to drop themselves and leave the IDF to pummel the IRGC into dust.

 

2.0 Negotiations With Iran: Why They Are Going Nowhere

• Iran’s Non-Starter Conditions Tehran insists that Israel must first halt all air strikes and that Iran must retain the right to enrich uranium. Both are red lines for Washington—especially the enrichment demand, which directly conflicts with U.S. policy that Iran abandon such activity.
• A Manufactured Dilemma By making these demands, Iran is presenting the West with a stark choice: accept enrichment on Iranian terms or face the prospect of an endless hunt for clandestine nuclear material. Either outcome protects the regime’s nuclear programme, through a permissive deal or by forcing it further underground.
• No Flexibility From Tehran Iranian negotiators have shown no sign of softening their position, and U.S. and Israeli officials remain unwilling to accept any agreement that leaves enrichment intact.
• Europe Is Simply Going Through the Motions European diplomats may keep dialogue alive, but without substantive Iranian concessions, their efforts amount to little more than process-for-process  's-sake.
• Trump’s Overture Will Yield Nothing. The former president’s talk of a two-week pause is unlikely to produce results. At best, it buys time for him to reassure MAGA isolationists that any U.S. role will be confined to air power, not ground troops.
• Iran is Calling Trump's Bluff; Knowing that MAGA and America do not have much appetite for war.
• Bottom line: Iran’s clerical leadership is ideologically committed to its course of a holy war with the Great and Little Satan; negotiations under the current terms are effectively fruitless.

 

3.0 An Unpopular Intervention

• MAGA Remains Split. Trump faces internal resistance from isolationist factions within his MAGA base. However, he appears to be working to bring dissenters on board by framing the potential intervention in Iran as a short, sharp campaign focused solely on overwhelming air power—no ground troops, no long-term entanglement.
• Democrats Refuse to Back Israel Against Iran A recent poll reveals that Democrats remain deeply divided on the Israel-Iran conflict. Just over a third of Democrats expressed support for Israel, while only 8% backed Iran. Strikingly, 52% of Democratic respondents said they could not choose between the two, despite the contrast between a democratic ally and an authoritarian theocracy. This indecision reflects the party’s ideological drift and leadership vacuum following their presidential election defeat. According to James Johnson, co-founder of JL Partners, which conducted the survey, the Democratic base has shifted significantly to the left, making clear foreign policy stances increasingly elusive.
• Conclusion With MAGA fractured and Democrats ambivalent, Trump’s path to consensus on military action remains uncertain, reinforcing his preference for airstrikes over any politically costly escalation.

 

4.0 Options for Striking Fordow

• In addition to the use of GBU-57 bunker buster bombs—whether delivered by U.S. B-2 bombers or transferred to the IDF and dropped from C-130s—there are other potential strategies for neutralizing the Fordow facility.
• One approach could involve deploying elite Israeli Air Force commandos from Unit 5101 “Shaldag.” This unit previously conducted a successful operation in Syria in September to destroy an underground Iranian missile site. A similarly targeted mission could be executed against Fordow.
• Another possible tactic would be to disrupt the facility’s power supply. Without electricity, Fordow’s centrifuges—used to enrich uranium—could become irreparably damaged, effectively halting enrichment activities without the need for a full-scale airstrike.

 

5.0 Israeli Army Chief Warns of ‘Prolonged Campaign’ in Iran

Israel’s military chief has warned of a “prolonged campaign” against Iran, declaring that the country is now engaged in a “multi-front war.” Lieutenant General Eyal Zamir stated that the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) had been preparing for this confrontation with Iran for years, even as operations continue against Hamas in Gaza. During a visit to the Gaza Strip, Zamir addressed Israelis in a video statement:
“We have embarked on the most complex campaign in our history to remove a threat of such magnitude, against such an enemy. We must be ready for a prolonged campaign.”

5.1 Current Developments:

• After a week of sustained Israeli airstrikes, estimates suggest that at least 657 people have been killed and 2,037 others wounded in Iran.
• The IDF reported that more than 60 fighter jets, deploying approximately 120 munitions, struck numerous Iranian military targets overnight—including key sites inside Tehran.
  “During the night, several industrial sites used to manufacture missiles were struck in the Tehran area,” said an IDF spokesperson.
• Suppression of Enemy Air Defenses (SEAD) and Destruction of Enemy Air Defenses (DEAD) sorties continue, allowing the Israeli Air Force (IAF) to establish air superiority over key parts of Iran and preempt missile attacks.
• On Friday morning, over 25 IAF fighters reportedly destroyed more than 35 missile storage and launch facilities in the Iranian cities of Tabriz and Kermanshah.

5.2 Strikes Against Iran’s Internal Security Infrastructure:

Israel has also intensified attacks on Iran’s internal security and regime apparatus, aiming to degrade its ability to repress domestic dissent.
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz stated:
“We must strike at all the symbols of the regime and the mechanisms of oppression of the population, such as the Basij, and the regime’s power base, such as the Revolutionary Guard.”

5.3 Targeted Elimination of Key Personnel:

• According to Reuters, citing Israel’s national broadcaster Kan, a key Iranian nuclear scientist was reportedly killed in a drone strike on an apartment in Tehran. The report attributes the information to an Israeli source who confirmed the scientist’s death.

5.4 Unsung Heroes in the Air Defense Effort:

• IAF AH-64 Apache helicopters have played a pivotal yet underreported role in countering long-range, one-way, slow-attack drones. The Apache has proven highly effective in counter-drone operations, a field in which Israel has been a global pioneer.

5.5 Hezbollah Decapitation Strike

Yesterday, Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz issued a warning to Hezbollah via X, stating:“The Hezbollah Secretary-General is failing to learn from the fate of his predecessors and continues to threaten Israel according to the Iranian dictator’s orders.”

Simultaneously, in a clear message to deter Hezbollah from entering the conflict, the IDF conducted a precision strike that killed senior Hezbollah commander Mohammad Ahmad Khreiss, who led the group’s anti-tank unit at the Chebaa outpost in southern Lebanon. Khreiss was responsible for multiple missile attacks on Israel that had resulted in IDF casualties.In a separate strike, a second senior Hezbollah figure, Yassin Abd al-Mun’im ‘Izz al-Din—an artillery commander in the Litani sector—was also eliminated.

These targeted assassinations represent a significant blow to Hezbollah’s operational leadership and are part of Israel’s broader effort to degrade the group's military capabilities, particularly if it chooses to enter the war on Iran’s side and resume large-scale missile attacks on Israel. Notably, we argue that the deployment of the Gerald Ford Carrier Strike Group by the U.S. was coordinated with Israel to deter exactly such a scenario.

 

6.0 Iranian Missile Attacks Continue at an ever-lower intensity

 

• The IDF reports that Iran has fired 520 ballistic missiles at Israel, with 25 impacting the ground, equating to roughly a 5% hit rate. However, this does not necessarily mean those missiles struck their intended targets. In fact, the actual accuracy rate is likely much lower. GF believe this figure may underestimate the total number of projectiles that landed in Israeli territory by a factor of 2.5 and hide the accuracy of some strikes.
• On Friday, Iran reportedly launched approximately 20 missiles at Israel, with explosions heard over both Tel Aviv and Jerusalem. Simultaneously, Iran has continued to launch small waves of one-way attack drones. However, these efforts have achieved no significant success. The drone attacks appear poorly coordinated if the intent was to overwhelm Israeli air defences.
• One of the most notable locations struck today was the port city of Haifa. Local mayor Yona Yahav confirmed that Iran had hit “two strategic points” in the city. Speaking at one of the impact sites, he stated:
  “I am very depressed. To the residents of Haifa, I say — strictly follow the instructions. “Haifa hosts the main naval base of the Israel Defence Forces, which houses submarines, corvettes, and other key vessels. At this time, it remains unclear whether the naval base was the intended target—or if it was actually hit. Multiple unconfirmed reports suggest that the ballistic missile impacting Haifa may have landed next to a mosque.

 

7.0 Keeping the Oil Flowing

The Strait of Hormuz remains a vital artery for global energy, with over 20 million barrels of oil passing through it daily. In response to rising tensions, the U.S. is coordinating with Gulf allies to:

• Develop alternative oil export routes
• Manage OPEC production and pricing coordination
• Bolster regional air defences in preparation for potential escalation

A sustained closure of the strait could push oil prices to $120–$140 per barrel, severely impacting developing economies and exacerbating global inflation. Meanwhile, China continues to quietly benefit from heavily discounted Iranian oil while taking no responsibility for Gulf security.The greatest wildcard may be potential disruptions to global LNG supplies—particularly Qatari exports and Israeli gas exports to Egypt and Jordan—which could trigger significant ripple effects across international energy markets.

 

20 JUNE 2025: THE IRAN–ISRAEL WAR – GF ANALYSIS DAY 7

 

1.0 The Day Trump Almost Went to War — Then Stepped Back from His FOMO Moment

We argue that Netanyahu expertly manipulated Donald Trump into a FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) mindset, appealing to his ego by showcasing the rapid success of the IDF’s initial campaign. With images of decisive Israeli military action dominating the media, Trump felt compelled to join in and claim credit for the anticipated victory—a "hero’s lap" in his eyes. However, despite his initial inclination toward military escalation, it appears that two powerful voices intervened to temper his impulsive instincts: the MAGA non-interventionists and key European leaders. Their combined pressure, alongside signals from Tehran suggesting a willingness to talk, pushed Trump back from the brink—at least temporarily.

1.1 MAGA Restraint

Trump's own base is far from unified on the issue. The die-hard MAGA isolationists, represented by figures like Steve Bannon and Tucker Carlson, have been vocal in opposing another Middle Eastern war. Their public pressure and influence within the movement may have caused Trump to reconsider a war that could alienate his most loyal followers.

1.2 European Diplomatic Push

European leaders have urgently called for de-escalation. Today, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, through his spokesperson, urged all sides to "de-escalate and halt the fighting." He added: “The continuation of the current situation is in no one’s interest. We want to see cool heads and a return to diplomacy, because that is the best route forward.”

As part of this broader diplomatic initiative, UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy met with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio in Washington. While both agreed Iran must never acquire nuclear weapons, the exact path forward remained vague. Their talks precede a high-level summit in Geneva between the foreign ministers of the UK, France, Germany, and Iran, with EU foreign affairs chief Kaja Kallas also attending.

1.3 Quiet US-Iranian Contacts

Meanwhile, U.S. Special Envoy for the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, has reportedly spoken multiple times with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi since Israel’s airstrikes began. Though Iran has shown some interest in ending hostilities, Tehran insists that negotiations will not resume unless Israel halts its attacks—an unlikely condition, especially after Israel today escalated its military operations on Tehran.

1.4 Trump’s Temporary Pause

Despite approving detailed attack plans, Trump has momentarily stepped back. In a statement delivered by White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt, Trump said: “Based on the fact that there’s a substantial chance of negotiation that may or may not take place with Iran in the near future, I will make my decision whether or not to go in the next two weeks.”Leavitt added that any deal must include a total halt to uranium enrichment and a verifiable dismantling of Iran’s nuclear weapons capability. While this might sound conciliatory, the military option remains firmly on the table whilst the IDF continues its airstrikes with renewed vigour. Trump has approved contingency strikes, including on deeply buried nuclear facilities like Fordow. As long as Fordow remains intact, Israel’s strategic goal of ending Iran’s nuclear ambitions will remain unfulfilled.

1.5 Trump can clearly be Manipulated

This FOMO incident demonstrates how easily Netanyahu manipulated Trump’s ego through flattery and promises of grandiosity—a tactic likely also used by Putin. In this case, it nearly dragged the United States into another regime change war without a clear plan or strategic framework.

1.6 The Mullah's Creed of Apocalyptic War

Iran is the world’s biggest state sponsor of terrorism. At rallies, speeches by the supreme leader are greeted by chants of “death to England” and “death to America” as well as “death to Israel”.The driving ideology of the regime is to plunge the globe into conflict by destroying Israel. Some Iranian sects have in the past argued that this would facilitate the emergence of a mythical Messiah figure called the “Mahdi” from invisibility, leading the faithful to victory. Those same extremists argue that this showdown is happening right now.

2.0 Two Options to Destroying Fordow and Isfahan

Notably, General Dan “Razin” Caine, the current U.S. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, has logged over 2,800 flight hours in the F-16, including more than 150 hours in combat. He is widely acclaimed for his operational leadership in Middle Eastern theatres, particularly for his role in executing a rapid and effective campaign against ISIS using a decentralised command structure. Given his background, he is likely to be a strong advocate for the use of airpower over Iran and its potential to deliver decisive strategic effects.There are two plausible scenarios by which the Fordow and Isfahan nuclear sites could be bombed:

1. Direct U.S. Military Action:
   A full-scale American strike using B-2 bombers and GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrators would represent the most powerful and accurate option—but also the most escalatory. This route would likely signal a shift from containment to active regime change, which would require extensive planning, clear strategic goals, and long-term commitment.
2. An Israeli Proxy Strike:
   Alternatively, the U.S. could transfer GBU-57s or smaller GBU-72s to Israel, allowing the IDF to conduct the strike independently—possibly using modified C-130s or standoff delivery systems. This would allow Washington to remain officially uninvolved, preserving strategic ambiguity while achieving a key objective.

However, if the goal is regime change, then indirect methods may no longer suffice. Any decision to remove Iran’s leadership must be carefully calibrated, both politically and militarily. Without a clear endgame, any military escalation risks plunging the region into long-term chaos.

 

3.0 Understanding Trump's decision-making process-

We argue that this situation could have been avoided if Trump had authorised B-2 bombers to strike Iran’s key nuclear sites in coordination with a pre-emptive, decisive decapitation strike by the IDF. This entire crisis is the product of Trump’s appeasement policies and his failure to confront the Axis of Autocracy with force when necessary. At his core, however, Trump is both a bully and a coward—traits that the world’s authoritarian leaders have clearly recognised and learned to exploit.

As we have often pointed out, “America First” in practice has always meant “Trump First.” Every decision is shaped by what benefits Donald Trump personally—driven by his narcissistic need for aggrandisement and to always be seen as the winner. This perspective is not unique to us; it is echoed by numerous observers and experts.

Anne Applebaum, the respected American journalist, historian, and author, known for her work on authoritarianism and the erosion of democratic norms, has warned about the dangers of leaders who prioritize personal image over strategic thinking. She makes the essential point:

“Trump doesn’t think strategically. He doesn’t understand geopolitics. He doesn’t have a plan for what comes after an attack on Iran. His decisions are driven by emotion and optics—what looks tough, what makes him seem victorious. He must be seen to win, regardless of the consequences. His choices are not about what’s good for Iran, the Middle East, or even Israel. They’re about what’s good for Trump.”

Anthony Scaramucci, former White House communications director, offers this candid insight:

“Trump is all about looking tough, and Netanyahu has clearly played to that. Remember, when Trump says ‘America First,’ what he really means is ‘Me First.’ There’s no coherent or principled foreign policy—decisions are made on the fly, without strategic foresight. And if regime change is the goal, we should reflect on what we’ve learned over the last two decades. Look at Afghanistan: we spent 20 years and enormous resources only for the Taliban to return. Iraq was another disaster. Even if the Iranian people desire regime change, it’s not clear that the United States should be the one to impose it.”

Together, these voices paint a troubling picture: a president whose foreign policy is reactive, ego-driven, and dangerously unmoored from historical lessons or long-term strategy. Applying  trump logic of having to win down into two outcomes

• Iran capitulates to diplomatic pressure and gives up it nuclear ambitions
• Trump is seen as destroying the nuclear sites, which draws the US into a war of regime change and an ongoing war.

GF Prediction- Now that Trump has imposed a two-week delay and reverted to a diplomatic posture, the Iranians are likely to interpret it as weakness. They will use the time to prepare defensively and harden their positions, ultimately forcing Trump’s hand and drawing the United States into a major air war.

 

4.0 IDF Airstrikes Continue

With Trump’s two-week delay on American intervention, the IDF is now racing to inflict maximum damage before the possibility that Trump agrees to a weak deal under the guise of protecting Israel.

• The Israeli Air Force has sustained its campaign against Iranian nuclear, military, and energy infrastructure.
• On June 19, Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz stated that one of the objectives of the air campaign is to “prevent [Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s] existence,” signalling a clear intent to escalate.
• Katz also warned that Israel would intensify its strikes in response to Iran’s recent attack on the Soroka Medical Centre.
• Among the latest targets were several key nuclear facilities, including the Arak Heavy Water Reactor in Markazi Province—a site that could support the production of plutonium-based nuclear weapons. The IDF also hit a nuclear-related storage facility in Natanz, Esfahan Province.
• Since June 12, the IDF has destroyed at least six Iranian Ghadir radar systems, based on commercial satellite imagery. These radars reportedly have the capability to detect aircraft at ranges of up to 1,100 kilometres.

5.0 Iran Continues to Retaliate

• On June 19, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei appointed Brigadier General Mohammad Karami as the new commander of the IRGC Ground Forces. Karami has a history of suppressing domestic dissent, suggesting the regime is bracing for possible internal unrest.
• Iran has continued launching ballistic missiles despite Israeli claims of destroying between 50–66% of Iran’s missile launchers. Since June 18, Iran has deployed more advanced missile types in its attacks against Israel.
• One such missile struck the Soroka Medical Centre in Beersheba, injuring more than 200 individuals and marking a significant escalation in Iran’s targeting of civilian infrastructure.

 

6.0 The UK Lamentable Response

The UK’s response to the war in Iran under Prime Minister Keir Starmer has been, at best, lamentable. As the conflict intensifies and Israel targets deep inside Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, the British government appears paralysed. Attorney General Lord Hermer’s suggestion that UK involvement may be illegal reflects either a profound misunderstanding of modern precision warfare or a reluctance to confront strategic reality. Equating a limited series of high-altitude, precision strikes with a full-scale Gulf War is a false equivalence—one that risks undermining Western credibility at a critical moment. Meanwhile, government warnings to the U.S. about potential repercussions—such as Iranian reprisals or terror threats to Western citizens—may be well-intentioned but ultimately project fear rather than resolve. Instead of demonstrating leadership, the UK has become diplomatically reactive, allowing France and Germany to dominate ceasefire diplomacy.

Strategically, the decision to continue Operation Highmast and deploy UK carrier groups to the Asia-Pacific, at a time of rising global tension, raises serious questions. With 24 F-35Bs on board, ideally suited for short-range precision missions in the Middle East, the carriers could provide immediate and valuable support to U.S. operations. Instead, their continued push into the Asian theatre—where they risk becoming an exposed and potentially symbolic target if China enters the conflict—borders on strategic folly. If the UK wishes to remain a serious global power, it must move beyond legalistic hesitations and performative diplomacy to demonstrate strategic clarity and meaningful military commitment.

7.0 GF Prognosis for the War

There will be no Iranian surrender, as the leadership believes that a nuclear weapon is essential to its survival. Without it, they fear the regime will eventually collapse, with or without Israel’s attempt at forced regime change. As a result, Iran will continue to fight and aim to inflict maximum damage. This strategy is likely to draw the United States fully into the conflict.

 

19 JUNE 2025: THE IRAN–ISRAEL WAR – GF ANALYSIS DAY 6

1.0 OVERVIEW - IRAN REFUSES TO SURRENDER

Our prediction that Iran’s bellicose position would remain unchanged—rooted in a doctrine of destruction and martyrdom—has proven accurate. As anticipated, escalation has intensified, and it is now almost certain that the United States will join the campaign in the coming days. Following Trump’s demands for a complete end to Iran’s nuclear program and for regime change, the conflict entered a new phase on Day 6 of the war.

Trump’s call for Iran’s unconditional surrender was met with Supreme Leader Khamenei’s defiant vow of resistance and retaliation. “We will not surrender,” he declared, warning that if the U.S. takes military action, “it will undoubtedly cause irreparable consequences to them.” “In the name of the noble Haidar, the battle begins,” Khamenei proclaimed on his English-language X account, invoking a revered Shiite figure. “We must give a strong response to the Zionist terrorist regime. We will show the Zionists no mercy.”

While Trump is attempting to maintain strategic ambiguity, stating, “I may do it, I may not do it. I mean, nobody knows what I’m going to do. I can tell you this, that Iran’s got a lot of trouble,” the reality is that Khamenei will not surrender. Trump now appears to be on an almost inevitable path to war. The massive U.S. force build-up clearly signals intent for military engagement. The only remaining variable is timing, which likely depends on the full deployment of two new U.S. carrier strike groups, expected to be in position over the weekend.

2.0 THE MAGA SPLIT

Trump’s pivot to war has opened a significant divide within the MAGA movement. Isolationists like Tucker Carlson and Steve Bannon oppose any intervention, whi, le more traditional Republicans and influential tech and hedge fund leaders support the effort to neutralise Iran’s nuclear ambitions and remove the regime. They see this as an opportunity to demonstrate American power through a short, sharp, and brutally efficient campaign—sending a clear message to adversaries, including Russia. Trump’s veiled threat to “kill” Iran’s leader underscores this posture: “You can’t hide. We know where you are.”

What isolationists fail to acknowledge is that Trump, now acting with near-dictatorial authority, has already decided on war as one route to satify his need to ' win'

3.0 ISRAEL’S INITIAL WAR AIMS HAVE BEEN ACHIEVED

• Iran’s nuclear program has been significantly set back, thereby delaying any potential breakout.

• Around 50% of Iran’s long-range ballistic missile arsenal has been destroyed.

• The regime is now on the defensive and potentially on the path to collapse.

• The United States has been drawn into the conflict, poised to complete the campaign.

4.0 THE IDF AIR CAMPAIGN CONTINUES AT A REDUCED TEMPO

Following five days of high-intensity air operations, the tempo of Israel's campaign has slowed in anticipation of U.S. reinforcement. Recent Israeli strikes have focused on missile production sites, including those used to supply Russia and Iran’s regional allies. Tehran reports at least 585 Iranians killed and an unknown number wounded in Israeli strikes.

4.1 REGIME CHANGE TARGETS

Iranian leaders appear increasingly concerned about internal unrest. Israel has targeted infrastructure tied to Iran’s internal security forces. Defense Minister Israel Katz announced that the IDF destroyed the headquarters of Iran’s internal security apparatus. Though many Tehran residents are fleeing, this strike may garner quiet support among ordinary Iranians long oppressed by the regime.

5.0 IDF DEFENCES STRENGTHENING DESPITE BREACHES

Iranian salvos have drastically shrunk in size in recent days. What began as 100-projectile blitzes aimed at Israel has now been reduced to dozens of missiles being launched at a time. Over the past 24 hours, Iran conducted two ballistic missile attacks on Israel, each involving only 20 to 30 missiles. Despite the reduced scale, several missiles penetrated Israeli defences, including one that struck Soroka Medical Centre in Beersheba, causing significant damage and civilian casualties.

The fact that smaller missile barrages are still breaking through highlights a concerning development: these missiles appear to be evading interception by exploiting hypersonic speeds and/or advanced manoeuvrability characteristics consistent with the capabilities of Iran’s Fattah-1 hypersonic missile system.

6.0 THE JOURNEY FROM DIPLOMACY TO WAR: TRUMP’S PATH

Our working theory is that Trump has been influenced by both Vladimir Putin and Israel. Putin may have encouraged prolonged diplomacy to buy time for Iran. Conversely, Israel likely exerted strong influence, possibly leveraging compromising material such as the Epstein files, which may have Mossad ties.

When Iran failed to act within the 60-day window, Netanyahu launched military operations. Israel’s success has undercut Putin’s agenda. Trump, facing yet another diplomatic failure and experiencing FOMO, appears eager to align with the winning side and claim victory over Iran.

This erratic and externally influenced process at the highest level is deeply concerning. Nonetheless, Trump now appears committed to full-scale war—likely without fully understanding the long-term consequences.

7.0  IRAN’S THREATS TO AMERICA

Iran has warned of a strong response to any U.S. military strike.

7.1 Iran plans to target U.S. positions in Iraq and potentially in the Gulf region.

American intelligence officers have identified Iranian preparations for missile strikes on U.S. military bases in the Middle East, according to anonymous officials cited in a report by the New York Times. The U.S. maintains a presence at no fewer than 20 military bases across the Middle East and surrounding regions. Most of these installations fall within the 2,000 km range of Iran’s Sejil-2 ballistic missile.

Any Iranian attempt to target U.S. facilities is likely to be less effective than the ballistic missile attack launched on two American bases in Iraq in January 2020. That strike, conducted in retaliation for the assassination of Qassem Soleimani—ordered by then-President Donald Trump—caused no fatalities, partly because Iran had issued a forewarning. However, 110 U.S. servicemen suffered concussions and other brain injuries due to the blasts.

Recent missile attacks on Israel have highlighted the difficulty of intercepting ballistic missiles, which are launched into the upper atmosphere before descending at supersonic speeds. Even with one of the most advanced air defence networks in the world, Israel has struggled to intercept every projectile.

The U.S. military relies on two proven systems for ballistic missile defence: the Patriot system and the Terminal High Altitude Area Defence (THAAD). In response to rising tensions between Israel, Iran, and its proxies, the U.S. has been redeploying these systems from Asia to the Middle East. Patriot batteries have been installed at key bases such as Erbil and Ain al-Asad in Iraq, where they have previously intercepted militant rocket attacks. Additionally, American commanders have repositioned Patriot systems from South Korea to Isa Air Base in Bahrain and Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar.

This strategic shift underscores how the growing threat of conflict in the Middle East has weakened American defensive capabilities in Asia, potentially providing Chinese President Xi Jinping with a tempting opportunity to exploit a regional security gap. Note that hitting many of these targets would be done using the medium and shorter-range missiles in Iran's inventory that do not have the range to hit Israel, and which have not been IDF priority targets so far. Suggesting a massive, preemptive US strike against these targets as the opening phase of America's campaign in teh days ahead.

7.2 The Closing Of The Gulf

Iran could relatively easily close the Strait of Hormuz by deploying naval mines, repositioning mobile ballistic missile launchers, and utilizing maritime drones. Similar tactics were used during the Tanker Wars of the 1980s, although Iran never fully succeeded—primarily due to intervention by the Royal Navy and, later, the U.S. Navy, which escorted commercial vessels through the Gulf.

This scenario remains a key concern for U.S. officials, as it could compel American naval warships to remain stationed in the Persian Gulf. Mine clearance remains a challenging area for the U.S. Navy, potentially complicating any rapid response.

From Tehran’s perspective, closing the strait is one of the most probable methods for drawing the United States deeper into the conflict.

 

7.3 Iran's Allies

Iranian-backed militias have pledged to carry out attacks on U.S. forces in Iraq. The Houthis have also threatened retaliation against both U.S. and Israeli interests, with the potential to target international shipping lanes. Meanwhile, Pakistan remains an undefined variable. However, given the historical support provided by the ISI to the Taliban during their conflict with the United States and its allies, it is reasonable to assume that Pakistan may adopt a similarly aligned posture with the IRGC in any escalating confrontation.

8.0 U.S. FORCE BUILD-UP

The U.S. is significantly escalating its military presence in the Middle East. A third carrier group has moved into the Eastern Mediterranean to protect Israel’s western and northern flanks. U.S. forces at regional airbases have also been strengthened, clearly preparing for a large-scale air campaign against Iran.

9.0 ESCALATION RISKS REMAIN HIGH – A YALU RIVER MOMENT?

As noted yesterday, the risk of escalation remains acute. We may be nearing a “Yalu River moment”—referencing China’s surprise entry into the Korean War.

Hezbollah has increased attacks; proxy militias across Iraq, Syria, and Yemen are threatening retaliation. China’s silence and North Korea’s support are ominous, while Russia may offer covert support through cyber or intelligence assets.

If Iran’s regime nears collapse, these actors may intervene to preserve their strategic positions. The deployment of U.S. carrier groups and aggressive Israeli strikes further raise the risk of a regional chain reaction.

The coming days will be critical. The West must balance military objectives with the very real risk of regional—and possibly global—escalation, especially if China chooses this moment to ignite conflict in Asia.

 

 

18 June 2025 The Iran–Israel War – GF Analysis Day 5

1.0 Overview

As the IDF continues its systematic campaign to degrade Iranian defences and key strategic targets, the major development in the past 24 hours is that  Trump now appears poised to join Israel in its war against Iran. This shift is underscored by both the growing U.S. force buildup (detailed below) and Trump’s increasingly aggressive rhetoric.

Having moved from a staunch advocate of diplomacy—which was clearly failing—to a reluctant supporter of Israel’s war effort, Trump now appears to be driven by a form of geopolitical FOMO (fear of missing out). His language has escalated dramatically, with calls for Iran’s unconditional surrender and a complete end to nuclear enrichment. On Tuesday, he stated that he was aiming for a “real end” to the conflict, not merely a temporary ceasefire.“The Israeli army is unable to accomplish that. It lacks the necessary weapons. But the Americans have them,” Trump said bluntly, indicating a willingness to take direct military action.

This marks a major departure from the previous MAGA-era emphasis on non-intervention. Hence, JD Vance framed Trump’s position as consistent with his "America First" doctrine, stating that U.S. military involvement would only be in pursuit of American strategic objectives. However, as Trump weighs potential action against Iran, he is encountering growing resistance from within the MAGA movement over fears of entanglement in another Middle East conflict. Prominent voices such as Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene and broadcaster Tucker Carlson have expressed concern about the U.S. being drawn into another “forever war.”

To justify his new stance, Trump has openly challenged his own intelligence community. He contradicted an assessment by Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, who had said that Iran was not imminently close to producing a nuclear weapon.“I don’t care what she said. I think they were very close to having it,” Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One when asked if Tehran was further along in its nuclear ambitions than U.S. intelligence had indicated.

Netanyahu must be smiling from ear to ear, as Trump has bought into his war hook, line, and sinker—unable to resist the allure of being associated with success. Trump has even claimed credit for Israeli jets taking control of Iran’s airspace: “We (the royal we) now have complete and total control of the skies over Iran,” he wrote on Truth Social.

We remain alert to the risk that America joining the war could catalyse China into action that catches the world by surprise, as detailed below.In our analysis below, we also examine the forces driving Trump’s decision-making over Iran.

2.0 G6 Becomes Bolder – Israel Is ‘Doing the Dirty Work for All of Us’

After the initial platitudes offered by the G6 about de-escalation, a few have become bolder. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has voiced strong backing for Israel’s military actions against Iran, describing them as a service to the broader international community.“This is the dirty work Israel is doing for all of us. We, too, are victims of this regime. The mullah regime has brought death and destruction to the world,” Merz said in an interview with German broadcaster ZDF.Speakofing on the sidelines of the G7 summit in Canada, Merz also suggested that if Israel intends to fully dismantle Iran’s nuclear programme, it will likely require direct U.S. involvement in the conflict.

3.0 Iran's Position Holds Firm Despite Urgent Messages and Ongoing Conflict

There has been no change in Iran’s position, which we argue will be one on destruction and martyrdom

4.0 The IDF Air Campaign Continues

This is a highly complex, long-range air war, which explains why there have only been 197 reported or confirmed Israeli airstrikes on Iran since the start of the campaign on June 12. However, as Israel increasingly secures air dominance, this picture is set to change dramatically—and the mullahs are likely to face a far higher tempo of destruction.

• Tankers and Extended Loiter Times Enabling 'Hunt and Kill' Missions
  With air superiority extending deeper into Iranian airspace, Israeli tankers are now able to operate further east. This development brings two significant advantages to Israel’s air campaign. First, it greatly increases loiter time for strike fighters tasked with hunting and destroying Iran’s ground-mobile long-range ballistic missile systems. These missions are extremely challenging—even in smaller theatres—and flying from Israel to Iran leaves limited time on station to locate and destroy mobile launchers, which can be hidden almost anywhere. Having refuelling assets closer to the battlespace means aircraft can spend more time on station, enhancing their ability to act on real-time intelligence and prosecute targets effectively. Medium-altitude, long-endurance drones are also likely playing a critical role in these persistent surveillance and strike operations.

4.1 Duration and Course of the War Are a Function of Magazine Depths

As we predicted, Israel is winning the war of magazines.

• Reduced Iranian magazine depth
  In total, Iran is estimated to have fired 370 to 430 ballistic missiles at Israel since hostilities resumed. The IDF estimated on June 17 that it had destroyed between 35% and 45% of Iran’s ballistic missile stockpile. This includes the destruction of over 120 surface-to-surface missile launchers since the start of the fighting. Between June 16 and 17 alone, the IDF destroyed approximately 80 additional launchers, bringing the total number destroyed to over 200. According to Times of Israel reporter Emanuel Fabian, this represents more than half of Iran’s known launcher arsenal.
• Increased IDF firepower with air dominance
  IDF weapons loads are increasing. Thanks to more robust aerial refuelling closer to the target as a function of a degraded Iranian air-defence picture, Israeli fighters can now carry cheaper and more numerous heavier direct-attack payloads instead of relying on expensive and more limited lighter stand-off munitions. As a result, far more powerful ordnance is being dropped on targets in central Iran. This enables the IAF to strike hardened sites—such as missile caves—with bunker-buster bombs, destroying large stockpiles or at least sealing the caves and disabling the firing apertures. Consequently, we will see an acceleration in the magnitude and rate of destruction raining down on Iran.

4.2 SAM Suppression Missions Continue

• IDF anti-SAM attacks are continuing, especially in the west, seeking to ensure clear skies for the tanker fleets.

4.3 Decapitation Strikes Continue at Lower Command Levels

• Trump warned that the United States could eliminate Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei "anytime it wanted."
• The IDF has killed the newly appointed Iranian commander of the Khatam al-Anbia Central Headquarters, which oversees Iran’s joint and wartime operations. The commander, who had replaced his predecessor, survived only four days in the role. This suggests that the IDF is conducting an effective electronic warfare (EW) targeting campaign against Iranian command centers and senior personnel.

4.4 IRGC Targets

• None reported in the public domain.

4.5 Regime Change Remains the Clear Objective

• Trump’s demand for Iran’s total surrender now transposes into the demand for regime change.

4.6 IDF Ballistic Missile Suppression

• Israel Says It Struck Missile Sites in Western Iran The Israeli military announced on Tuesday that its forces carried out a series of strikes on multiple locations in western Iran, targeting and destroying “dozens” of missile launchers. According to a military statement, the Israeli Air Force “completed a series of strikes in western Iran,” during which “a number of sites and dozens of surface-to-surface missile launchers were struck.” The statement followed an earlier announcement confirming “several extensive strikes” overnight on military targets in the western region of the Islamic Republic.

4.7 Nuclear Sites

• Explosions Heard in Iranian City of Isfahan Iranian media said several blasts were heard on Tuesday in the central city of Isfahan, which hosts multiple nuclear facilities, as Israel kept up its strikes for a fifth day. “Several explosions were heard in the east and north of Isfahan and air defences were activated against the hostile targets,” the Mehr news agency reported.

4.9 Cyber Attacks

• Iranian Media Reports ‘Massive’ Cyberattack Israel has launched a “massive cyber war” against Iran’s digital infrastructure, Iranian media quotes the country’s cybersecurity command as saying. Many of the attacks were successfully repelled, the command adds.

5.0 Non-Hermetic IDF Defences becoming  stronger

As the image above demonstrates, some Iranian missiles have hit on or close to their military targets, as shown in this Iranian attack on the AMAN base, with four missiles successfully striking the facility. AMAN is Israel’s military intelligence directorate and is closely linked to Unit 8200—a highly secretive division specialising in cyber operations and signals intelligence. The missile impact points were geolocated by the Faytuks Network Geo team at the following coordinates:

• 1st Hit: 32.145833, 34.811944
• 2nd Hit: 32.144216, 34.811862
• 3rd Hit: 32.154444, 34.816389
• 4th Hit: 32.152778, 34.810278

Mossad sites were reportedly among other targets also struck during the attack.

• Iranian Missile Attacks on Israel – Damage and Capability Assessment
  Since the start of Israel’s air campaign on June 12, approximately 380 to 410 ballistic missiles have been launched by Iran toward Israel. Of those, about 10% made impact, with 39 confirmed Iranian ballistic missile or interceptor impacts recorded inside Israel. Over the past 24 hours alone, Iran has conducted five additional missile attacks, each with a relatively small volume of fire, suggesting a possible degradation of Iran’s missile capabilities.
• Reduced Barrage Size
  Notably, Israel’s and the U.S.’s anti-ballistic missile missions appear to have significantly reduced Iran’s ability to conduct large-scale, long-range barrages. This is a critical development, as high-volume saturation attacks are designed to overwhelm defences, increasing the likelihood of missile “leakers” reaching their targets. In contrast, low-volume assaults, while still dangerous, are more effectively intercepted by existing missile defence systems. Iran’s most recent barrages are also markedly smaller than those launched during the October 2024 attack, when Iran fired around 200 ballistic missiles in two waves. In the current conflict, on June 16, Iran launched 30 to 40 missiles per barrage. On June 17, the largest Iranian barrage consisted of 20 missiles, and the smallest involved just two missiles.
• Continued but Diminishing Risks to Israel
  The Israeli military believes these strikes have disrupted Iran’s ability to launch further mass barrages, though Iran still retains the capacity to inflict serious damage. It's important to note that the launchers destroyed so far pertain primarily to longer-range systems capable of reaching Israel. Iran still possesses a significant number of short-range missiles, which are more numerous, easier to conceal, and remain largely intact.
• Damage Assessments
  While official Israeli damage assessments from incoming missile strikes remain unavailable, preliminary indicators suggest that actual damage may be higher than publicly acknowledged.

6.0 Trump’s Elusive Diplomacy Turns into War

Our working theory to explain Trump’s behaviour regarding Iran is that he has been influenced by both Vladimir Putin and Israel. On one hand, Putin may have pushed Trump to prolong diplomatic efforts in order to give Iran—Russia’s ally—time to advance its nuclear ambitions. On the other hand, we believe Israel has also exerted significant influence over Trump, potentially leveraging compromising information, such as the Epstein files, which may have ties to Mossad. As a result, after Iran failed to meet the terms within the 60-day grace period, Netanyahu took the initiative and launched military action. Now that Israel's campaign has proven successful, Putin’s agenda has been undermined. Meanwhile, Trump, faced with yet another diplomatic failure and experiencing a fear of missing out (FOMO), appears eager to align himself with the winning side and claim credit for resolving the Iran issue once and for all. Needless to say, such a decision-making process at the highest levels of the free world is deeply concerning.

6.1 Iran’s Threats to America

None of Iran's threats will be strong enough to prevent American action, but will instead only destroy any legacy of the Iranian proxy construct.

• Iran's Planned Response:
  Iran is preparing to fire missiles at U.S. forces if the United States launches a strike on Iranian territory, according to The New York Times. The report states that Iran would initially target U.S. positions in Iraq, followed by strikes on other, unspecified Arab countries—presumably those located around the Persian Gulf.
• Militia Support:
  Iranian-backed militias have reportedly agreed to attack U.S. forces in Iraq in the event of a U.S. strike on Iran. These same militias were responsible for approximately 200 attacks on U.S. positions in Iraq and Syria between October 2023 and November 2024.
• Houthi Involvement:
  A senior Houthi official stated that the group "will intervene to support Iran against Israel." This support could include launching projectiles at U.S. or Israeli targets or resuming attacks on international shipping lanes.

7.0 U.S. Force Build-Up

The United States is significantly reinforcing its military presence in the Middle East amid rising tensions with Iran.

• The Pentagon has deployed advanced fighter jets—including F-16s, F-22s, and F-35s—as part of what officials describe as a "defensive" posture. U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth confirmed on June 16 that he had ordered additional assets into the region under the command of CENTCOM, citing the need to counter threats such as drone and projectile attacks.
• In parallel, satellite imagery shows several U.S. Navy vessels departing from Salman Port in Bahrain—located less than 150 miles from Iran—suggesting heightened naval alertness to potential Iranian aggression.
• Meanwhile, more than 30 U.S. aerial refuelling tankers have also been dispatched, reportedly to provide operational flexibility and contingency options, including the possible refuelling of Israeli fighter jets should they conduct airstrikes over Iran. While such support would represent a limited form of U.S. involvement, officials note that the broader military build-up is designed to give Washington and its allies strategic options if the situation escalates further.

8.0 Escalation Risks Remain High

• China – A Yalu River Moment Ahead? In the wake of Israel’s strike on Iran last Friday, a series of mysterious cargo flights from China has raised significant concern. A Boeing 747 freighter departed the day after the attack, followed by another from a coastal Chinese city on Saturday, and a third from Shanghai on Monday—three flights in as many days. Although flight plans listed Luxembourg as the destination, none of the aircraft appeared to enter European airspace, prompting questions about their actual routes and cargo. Aviation analysts have flagged the use of Boeing 747 freighters—commonly used to transport military equipment under government contracts—as especially concerning. Cargolux, the Luxembourg-based operator of the flights, confirmed the planes did not pass through Iranian airspace but declined to reveal what they were carrying. These developments have fuelled speculation about possible covert Chinese support for Tehran. Of particular concern is the potential transfer of DF-17 hypersonic missiles to Iran, which could threaten U.S. carrier groups, or even direct Chinese intervention using DF-26 missiles stationed in its western desert—possibly timed with the launch of a broader conflict in Asia.
• Russia's Pacific Fleet has launched a large-scale military exercise in the Far East, running from June 16 to 30, involving over 40 warships, 30 aircraft, and 5,000 personnel. Led by Admiral Viktor Liina, the drills span the Pacific Ocean, Sea of Okhotsk, and Sea of Japan, focusing on submarine tracking, convoy defense, missile strikes, and long-range logistical operations. Coastal units equipped with Bastion missile systems are also participating.
• Pakistan has been silent since its nuclear threats to Israel.

 

 

17 June 2025 The Iran–Israel War – GF Analysis Day 4

1.0 Overview

Israel and Iran exchanged strikes for a fourth consecutive day. Prime Minister Netanyahu outlined three core objectives for Israel’s campaign against Iran: “Eliminate the nuclear program, eliminate the ballistic missile threat, eliminate the axis of terror”—in other words, dismantle the regime. He has not ruled out targeting Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, stating that his death would “end the conflict.” Trump appears to align with Israel, demanding a complete halt to Tehran’s uranium enrichment.

So far, Operation Rising Lion has inflicted on Iran the gravest penalty in Middle Eastern culture: public humiliation, both internationally and in the eyes of its own people. The regime’s efforts to restore its honour through mass missile barrages have only deepened the humiliation, as their retaliation has failed to prevent the dismantling of Iran’s key instruments of aggression. All that now remains for Iran’s leaders is the desperation of escalation—and martyrdom. We argue that a potential path to escalation is inevitable, as outlined below in what we are describing as a Yalu River risk, as outlined below.

2.0 G6+1: A Gathering of Platitudes

G7 leaders have been meeting in Alberta, Canada, for their 2025 summit. During the talks, Trump took a notably harder line in support of Israel, in contrast to the lukewarm platitudes offered by other nations, who issued the typical call for "de-escalation." In that regard, we agree with Trump’s stance, as he torpedoed a joint G7 statement, insisting that Iran must not be allowed any uranium enrichment activity.

3.0 Iran's Position Holds Firm Despite Urgent Messages and Ongoing Conflict

Iran has reportedly maintained its uncompromising stance despite sending urgent diplomatic signals. While Tehran has declared it will not negotiate under Israeli attack, sources told The Wall Street Journal that Iran has privately conveyed a willingness to return to the negotiating table—on the condition that the U.S. does not join the strikes. Iran has also told Israel that it is in both sides’ interests to restrain the violence. According to Reuters, Iran has asked Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Oman to press Trump to demand an immediate ceasefire from Israel.

However, in practice, Iran has not altered its negotiating position on the nuclear issue during the current Israeli campaign, suggesting it is not yet ready to negotiate an end to the Iran-Israel war. We have long argued that the regime believes relinquishing its nuclear program would leave it dangerously exposed to regime change. Arab intermediaries have confirmed that Iran is “not ready to make concessions in nuclear talks,” a position supported by public statements from Iranian leaders. President Masoud Pezeshkian has continued to issue threats of “severe” retaliation if the U.S. fails to restrain Israel, while also defending Iran’s “right” to peaceful nuclear energy and research.

In a further sign of hardening positions, the Iranian parliament has begun drafting a proposal to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). Such actions are seen as non-starters by both the United States and Israel. Prior to the strikes, Israeli officials stated that, at a minimum, Iran must halt uranium enrichment—a position the Trump administration has also consistently upheld in negotiations.

4.0 The IDF Air Campaign Continues

On the fourth day of operations, the IDF Air Campaign expanded over Tehran, establishing air superiority. Israeli airstrikes continued with intensity as the IDF announced that the campaign would persist until Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs are fully dismantled. Prime Minister Netanyahu declared that Israel now “controls the skies” above Tehran, with IDF aircraft operating over the Iranian capital with the same freedom they enjoy over Tel Aviv. Israeli leadership warned that Tehran’s residents would "pay the price" for the continued missile attacks on Israeli cities.

The Iranian regime has proven unable to protect even the highest levels of its military command, much of which has been decimated in a matter of days—an unprecedented development in modern state-on-state warfare. This marks a continuation of the IDF’s operational success following campaigns against Hamas and Hezbollah. An evacuation order from Israel alone was enough to trigger mass movement among Tehran’s population, highlighting a dramatic loss of sovereignty by the regime over its own capital. Thousands of Iranians are now fleeing the city, stockpiling supplies, and causing massive traffic jams on Tehran’s main roads.

4.1 Duration and Course of the War Are a Function of Magazine Depths

This long-range regional war will be constrained by the available weapon stockpiles of each side. Iran began with 2,000 ballistic missiles, of which some 300–350 have already been fired, with up to 700 destroyed. Israel, by contrast, relies on plentiful and relatively inexpensive GPS- and laser-guided bombs. While Israel’s air defence also faces magazine depth constraints, even a complete depletion of SAMs would not allow the remaining 1,000 Iranian ballistic missiles to knock Israel out of the war. Once Israel achieves moves from air superiority to full air dominance, the IDF will carry out sustained 24-hour bombing campaigns and seamlessly shift to opportunistic targeting once fixed assets are destroyed. As the situation grows more desperate and attritional, the Iranian regime may escalate further, potentially by closing the Gulf. We estimate that the point of Iranian desperation will be reached at this tempo within three to five days.

4.2 SAM Suppression Missions Continue at Pace

The IDF’s SAM suppression program is now likely in a mature phase, with only a limited number of short-range systems remaining, typically operating with radars turned off to avoid detection.

4.3 Decapitation Strikes Continue at Lower Command Levels

Targeted strikes on mid-level leadership continue to degrade the IRGC’s operational capacity.

4.4 IRGC Targets

• The Israeli Air Force struck the IRGC Quds Force headquarters in Tehran.
• Additional strikes hit an IRGC barracks in Zanjan Province and a munitions bunker in Qom City.
• The IDF also targeted the Parchin military complex, long linked to advanced munitions and nuclear weapons development.

4.5 Regime Change Remains the Clear Objective

• Netanyahu has issued repeated appeals to the Iranian people to rise up against the regime—calls that have received growing public support.
• The IDF has targeted Iran’s state TV broadcaster and the IRIB headquarters to disrupt propaganda.
• Israeli forces are striking regime infrastructure and critical energy assets.
• Widespread reports of dissent are emerging; the regular army—less loyal to Khamenei and the IRGC—may be preparing to act.
• For the first time since 1979, the Iranian people may have a genuine opportunity to choose new leadership.

4.6 IDF Ballistic Missile Suppression 

The below is an Iranian missile barrage on its way to Israel, taken from a commercial airliner

• Israel has reportedly reduced Iran’s ballistic missile threat by 50%.
• According to Captain Masha Michelson, head of the IDF International Desk, targeted strikes have destroyed launch pads and transport vehicles, eliminating around 30% of Iran’s ballistic missile stockpiles.
• Of the original 2,000 missiles, roughly 300–350 have been fired, with destruction of infrastructure reducing usable stockpiles to ~1,000.
• Approximately one-third of Iran’s 360 missile launchers have also been destroyed.
• At the current rate, Iran may soon be left with fewer than 250 viable missiles and under 100 launchers capable of reaching Israel. However, over 1,000 short-range missiles may still threaten Gulf targets.

4.7 Nuclear Sites

• Above-ground and shallow nuclear facilities are being destroyed, but deep bunkers remain intact. Elimination options include the use of bunker-busting ordnance (e.g., modified C-130 delivery systems) or U.S. intervention.
• Netanyahu claims the program has been set back “a very, very long time.”
• Natanz: Centrifuges destroyed; up to 10 nuclear scientists killed.(shown below)
  Image

  
• Isfahan: Underground facilities reportedly unaffected; uranium stockpile status unknown.
• Fordow: Appears unscathed.(shown below)
  Image

  

5.0 Non-Hermetic IDF Defences

Defrin reported that Israeli defences intercepted dozens of missiles and drones, though some broke through during an early Monday barrage, killing at least eight and injuring nearly 300. Iran has launched around 350 ballistic missiles—each carrying approximately a ton of explosives—and over 100 drones. So far, 24 Israeli civilians have been killed and many hundreds wounded. Damage to military installations remains unclear. While each loss is tragic, the overall impact has fallen well short of Khamenei’s repeated promises of devastation. The IDF is successfully intercepting approximately 90% of incoming threats, with only 5–10% reaching residential areas. Officials state that airstrikes are severely degrading Iran’s launch capability, meaning barrages are expected to decline in intensity.

6.0 Trump’s Elusive Truce

Trump has said Iran is seeking negotiations to end the conflict, urging talks to begin “before it’s too late” for Tehran. As Iran faced heavy bombardment, Trump stated that backchannel messages were being sent to the U.S. and Israel via Europe and the Gulf. Speaking at the G7 summit, Trump said he had given Iran 60 days to reach a deal to limit its nuclear program: “And on the 61st day, I said, we don’t have a deal. They have to make a deal. It’s painful for both parties, but I’d say Iran is not winning this war, and they should talk—immediately, before it’s too late.” Our assessment: only surrender and regime change are viable endgames. Trump recently stated that he was “not in the mood” to negotiate with Iran after departing the G7 summit early to focus on the escalating crisis in the Middle East. Speculation has emerged that he may possess intelligence suggesting Iran is preparing to strike a U.S. base in Iraq, fueling concerns that America could be drawn into a broader conflict. Trump said on Monday that he was aiming for a “real end” to the conflict, instead of a temporary ceasefire.

7.0 Escalation Risks Remain High

The greatest risk remains escalation that draws the U.S. into war, triggering support from Iran’s allies (e.g., Pakistan or China), particularly via:

• Missile and drone attacks on U.S. forces in the region.
• Closure of the Strait of Hormuz:
  • Tools include naval mines, fast attack boats, uncrewed drones, midget submarines, and ballistic missiles.
  • Physical or perceived risk could halt shipping, achieving the same result.
  • The U.S. Navy’s mine-clearing capabilities remain limited.
  • Iran’s dispersed, mobile forces make retaliatory strikes difficult.
• Selective disruption via hijackings, harassment, and missile attacks—as seen in the Red Sea. But unlike the Red Sea, the Strait has no alternative route. We expect ships from China and selected allies would be excluded from attack.
• Houthis may also resume attacks, although significantly degraded by earlier U.S. strikes—an action we correctly identified as prelude to the Iran campaign.

8.0 U.S. Force Build-Up

The USS Nimitz carrier strike group is en route from the South China Sea to the Middle East, reportedly ahead of schedule. Simultaneously, the U.S. Air Force is moving a “large number” of aerial refueling tankers to Europe. As of June 15, flight data confirmed at least 21 tankers have departed the U.S. to bolster American air power in the region.

9.0 A Yalu River Moment Ahead?

History reminds us how unpredictable war can be. In 1950, during the Korean War, UN forces advanced toward the Chinese border at the Yalu River. In response, China launched a massive counterattack, turning the tide of the war. A similar turning point may now loom. If the U.S. enters the conflict, China could respond by:

• Indirect CCP support: Supplying Iran or Pakistan with DF-17 hypersonic “carrier-killer” missiles and targeting data.
• Direct PLAN intervention: Launching DF-26 missiles from its western deserts at U.S. carriers.

Such actions would escalate the current regional conflict into a full-scale great power confrontation—our modern-day Yalu River moment.

16 June 2025 The Iran–Israel War – GF Analysis Day 3

1.0 The IDF air campaign.

Now that the nuclear targets have been hit to arrest Iran's immediate atomic breakout, they will come back to those targets later to pound them into dust. Significant decapitation strikes to have succeeded on C3 locations, we should expect targeting priorities to emphasise air defence suppression and Iranian ballistic missile sites to constrain the attacks on Israeli soil.

1. Duration and course of the War are a function of magazine depths. This long-range regional war has a limit on its duration based on the magazine depths of each side. The Iranians with their 2000 ballistic missiles, of which some 300-350 have been fired, and the Israelis with their cheap and plentiful GPS/laser-guided bombs. Whilst Israel's air defence suffers from a similar magazine depth issue, the brutal reality is that even if they ran out of SAMs now, the residual 1700 Iranian ballistic missiles would not knock Israel out of the fight. However, once the IDF gain air dominance they can pound Iran to dust and, with 24-hour coverage, move seamlessly to a target of convenience once the fixed targets have been destroyed. As the situation becomes more desperate and attritional, with nothing to lose but martyrdom for the Iranian regime, it is at this point that they could seek to escalate and close the Gulf.
2. SAM Suppression Missions Continue at Pace “The IDF is currently striking surface-to-surface missile sites in central Iran,” Israel Defence Forces (IDF) spokesman Nadav Shoshani wrote on X. “We are operating against this threat in our skies and in Iranian skies
3. Decapitation Strikes Continue

• Iran’s Intelligence Chief Killed in Israeli Strike. Mohammed Kazemi, head of intelligence for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), was reportedly killed in an Israeli strike on Tehran on Sunday. He died alongside his deputy, Hassan Mohaqiq, and a third intelligence officer, Mohsen Bagheri. The targeted attack marks a significant escalation in Israel’s ongoing campaign against the Iranian leadership.
• Trump Allegedly Vetoed Plan to Assassinate Iran’s Supreme Leader. According to U.S. officials speaking to Reuters, former President Donald Trump rejected an Israeli proposal to assassinate Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. One official stated: “Have the Iranians killed an American yet? No. Until they do, we’re not even talking about going after the political leadership.” While some claimed the decision was based on fears that an even harder-line figure could replace Khamenei, we dismiss this as implausible, arguing that Iran is already at war with the West due to Khamenei’s aggressive policies. Our working theory suggests that the decision was influenced by Trump’s relationship with Vladimir Putin, who may have urged Trump to protect Khamenei as part of broader geopolitical manoeuvring.

4. The IDF has targeted several nuclear sites in Tehran since June 14.
   • The Organisation of Defensive Innovation and Research (SPND), which played a leading role in Iran’s nuclear weapons research program before 2003. The IDF killed former SPND Research and Technology Department head Mansour Asgari on June 14.
   • The IDF also struck the Iranian Defence and Armed Forces Logistics Ministry (MODAFL), which oversees SPND. Additionally, the IDF hit unspecified "nuclear weapons development laboratories" in Tehran, as well as an unidentified "chemical materials research and development site" and a centrifuge production facility in western Tehran.
   • Netanyahu claimed that Israel has now destroyed Iran’s primary Natanz nuclear enrichment site. The facility was capable of enriching uranium in centrifuges to 60% purity, just below the threshold required to build a nuclear weapon.
   • Fordow remains yet to be neutralised. A U.S. weapons expert reported on June 15 that if Israel does not render the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant (FFEP) inoperable, Iran could produce enough weapons-grade uranium (WGU) for nine nuclear weapons within a month, using its pre-attack stockpile enriched to 60%. For the IDF attack solution, pls read the commentary below on the use of C-130s as bombers.
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2.0 Non-Hermetic IDF Defences

 In the past 24 hours, Iran has conducted two waves of ballistic missile attacks targeting Israel from Iranian territory. Some have got through?

1. 1. How do Iranian missiles get through? Reports suggest that just under 10 per cent of the some three hundred plus missiles fired by Iran have evaded Israel’s multi-layered air defences. This should not come as a surprise, as we highlighted in our analysis of the second large-scale missile strike on Israel by Tehran. When Iran unveiled its Fattah-1 manoeuvring hypersonic warheads in June 2023, they were capable of Mid-phase and terminal manoeuvring, which allows them to evade interception by Israel’s David's Sling and U.S. Patriots, while the high-altitude Israeli Arrow and /or THAAD systems can still make an interception. Although such high-end systems are limited in number, they can then be saturated. These are the very same missiles that make the Iranian nuclear threat so potent — the Israeli defences cannot intercept them in the terminal phase of their trajectory, meaning that just one bomb sent on such missiles would have destroyed Israel. What is unknown is how many Fattah-1 were in the Iranian arsenal on June 13^th, 2025. We can assume that the number is a small fraction of the 2000 missiles with the range to hit Israel; as such, the missiles would only have been used against high-value IDF targets. Notably Iran's plan to increase its missile arsenal to 8000 was a factor in the timing of Israel's pre-emptive war.
   2. Civilian Targets On Sunday, Lt. Col. Nadav Shoshani, an IDF spokesman, stated: “Iran is intentionally firing missiles at Israeli homes and apartments. These aren’t misfires – they are deliberately targeting civilians, firing towards the centre of the civilian population.” Iranian missiles are not as accurate as Western systems and may also be suffering from EW position spoofing by the IDF.  Hence, the multiple civilian strikes. The warheads of up to two tonnes have a destructive power similar if not greater than, a WW2 V2, as the image below shows. We will be publishing WW3 63; Resilience of Bombed Populations 2-The Blitz and After tomorrow, which includes a complete analysis of this campaign and its impact on the British population.
   3. Military Targets Footage circulated during Friday night’s Iranian barrage showed missiles landing in and around the Kirya compound — the headquarters of the Israeli Ministry of Defence, often referred to as Israel’s Pentagon — in Tel Aviv. It is not yet clear whether the missiles struck inside the facility or in the surrounding civilian areas. However, soldiers have been confirmed among the hundreds of people injured, according to Israeli authorities

 

3.0 Signs of Iranian Civil Unrest

1. Reports in the Western press suggest that Iran’s Supreme Leader is facing growing criticism from within the regime’s inner circle following recent Israeli strikes on its nuclear infrastructure. In an effort to suppress dissent, Iran’s Chief Justice, cleric Mohseni Ejeie, warned on Saturday that any citizen expressing support for Israel’s actions on social media could face up to six years in prison.
2. Despite these attempts to control the narrative, signs of discontent are emerging. Critics within the regime are increasingly questioning the effectiveness of Iran’s military, given the billions reportedly spent on its modernisation. “Where is our air defence?” one official reportedly texted. Another added, “How can Israel strike at will, eliminate our top commanders, and we are unable to stop it?”Concerns have also been raised about Israeli infiltration of Iran’s security and military institutions, which appears to have enabled covert operations targeting Iranian forces and nuclear facilities.

4.0 Trump Denials: "Not Me, Gov"

Trump said: “The U.S. had nothing to do with the attack on Iran tonight. If we are attacked in any way, shape, or form by Iran, the full strength and might of the U.S. Armed Forces will come down on you at levels never seen before. “However, U.S. officials have confirmed that American forces were involved in intercepting ballistic missiles fired by Iran at Israel late on Friday. Washington is known to have Patriot air-defence batteries, possibly a THEAD battery deployed in Israel, as well as two US Navy destroyers positioned in the Mediterranean on ABM duty.

5.0 Trump's Diplomatic Delusions Continue

“We can easily get a deal done between Iran and Israel, and end this bloody conflict,” Trump wrote. He claimed that Iran and Israel “will make a deal” and that there would be peace “soon,” adding that “many calls and meetings” were already taking place. He suggested he could restore calm to the region following Israel’s strike on Iran’s nuclear weapons program on Friday and Iran’s subsequent retaliation. After listing some of his self-proclaimed diplomatic achievements, Trump wrote on Truth Social: “I do a lot, and never get credit for anything.”He ended his message with: “MAKE THE MIDDLE EAST GREAT AGAIN!” which is an interesting comment as it has not been part of anything significant since the Ottoman Empire!

6.0 A Reminder for Those Still Deluded About Allowing IranNuclear Weapons

Due to the trauma of the Holocaust, the Jewish state is believed to have decided to pursue nuclear weapons almost immediately after its establishment. In 1956, France agreed to provide the necessary know-how. By 1963, the Dimona nuclear reactor was active, and by early 1967, Israel had manufactured its first atomic bomb. The tiny, poor, and threatened Jewish state had become the world’s sixth nuclear power. What is striking about Israel’s nuclear monopoly in the Middle East is that it did not lead to an escalation of violence but rather to the stabilisation of a volatile region. On one hand, Israel’s policy of nuclear ambiguity was highly conservative. It never threatened its neighbours nor used its non-conventional capabilities to dominate them. On the other hand, Sunni Arab nations never truly believed Israel would use these doomsday weapons against them — a stance that reflected a significant degree of underlying trust — and thus tacitly accepted the existence of the programme.As a result, Dimona helped ensure that since 1973, there have been no full-scale Arab-Israeli wars. Since 1979, six peace agreements have been signed between Israel and its neighbours. A nuclear reactor, built in the shadow of the destruction of European Jewry, has made a lasting contribution to the pacification of a region historically prone to conflict.In contrast, Iran’s motivation for acquiring nuclear weapons, based on its own public statements, is rooted in destruction and expansionism. Combined with its cult of death and martyrdom, this mindset undermines the doctrine of Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD). This is why, in recent years, the ever-increasing activity at Iran’s nuclear facilities in Natanz and Fordow has kept both Israelis and Arabs awake at night.

7.0 Escalation Risks Remain

1. America – Trump has said it is “possible” that the U.S. will become involved in the Iran conflict.Trump has said it is “possible” that the U.S. will become involved in the Iran conflict.The USS Carl Vinson carrier strike group is currently active in the Persian Gulf, operating there as of June 13, 2025, according to U.S. military reports. Additionally, a second carrier—the USS Nimitz—has departed the South China Sea and is reportedly heading west, likely en route to support operations in the Middle East amid rising regional tensions.
2. Russia – Russia is not overly concerned, aside from the potential loss of strategic prestige. Its primary focus is ensuring the continued supply of Iranian drones, which have played a crucial role in its war on Ukraine, has been mitigated by the building and now operation of Drone factories established within Russia, which are reportedly capable of producing up to 2,700 drones per month independently.
3. China – As the largest customer of Iranian oil products, China stands to be the most affected by Israeli strikes on Iranian oil and gas infrastructure. Beijing imports up to two million barrels of oil per day from Iran, accounting for a significant portion of its energy supply. Should the conflict escalate and Iran retaliate by targeting U.S. military bases in the UAE or Saudi Arabia — both key energy suppliers to China — Beijing could face severe disruptions to its energy flows. For a country already dealing with an economic slowdown and an ongoing trade war with the U.S., this is hardly an ideal situation. Our concern is that  Xi could use such a moment as a casus belli — much like the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand provided Germany with a pretext to ignite World War I.
4. Pakistan is a Chinese proxy, and as such, it could well weigh into this war. Indeed, only this morning, Pakistan has threatened to drop a nuclear warhead on Israel if Benjamin Netanyahu uses nuclear weapons against Iran, according to a top Iranian officer. General Mohsen Rezaee, a senior officer in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and a member of Iran's National Security Council, said in an interview: 'Pakistan has assured us that if Israel uses a nuclear bomb on Iran, they will attack Israel with a nuclear bomb.'

 

15 June 2025 The Iran–Israel War – GF Analysis Day 2

1. This is a full-scale regional war. The past 24 hours have confirmed our prognosis that this is an all-out war between two nations, on the same scale as the conflict in Ukraine. A war that will determine either the survival of Israel or the survival of the Iranian regime. There can be only one victor. That victor will be Israel, however long it takes and however much destruction occurs.
2. Understanding the Islamic Enemy – A Death Cult, not a Regime. Iran is governed by a theocratic death cult. This regime does not operate according to conventional political logic. Its ideology is rooted in the glorification of martyrdom, the celebration of death over life, and an apocalyptic vision of religious conquest. During the Iran–Iraq War, the regime sent more than 20,000 children—some as young as 11—into minefields and machine-gun fire, falsely promising them divine glory. These children weren’t protected; they were sacrificed. State propaganda, then and now, venerates these young martyrs. Murals in Tehran portray child suicide bombers under the adoring gaze of Ayatollahs, urging others to follow. This culture of death is not a tragic memory—it is ongoing. Today, Iranian schoolchildren begin their day with genocidal chants. The regime funds suicide bombers, punishes women for unveiling, and stood behind the atrocities of October 7. A recent UN report confirms Iran’s use of drones, facial recognition, and religious technology to repress dissent at home and export violence abroad. Death is not merely tolerated—it is institutionalised and weaponised. Many ordinary Iranians, who know their regime all too well, were quietly relieved by Israel’s strike on Iranian nuclear facilities. They understand that a nuclear Iran threatens not only Israel but themselves. In the event of a retaliatory strike, they would be collateral damage in their rulers’ apocalyptic delusion. The regime is willing to sacrifice its own people in service of its theological fantasies. As such, they will fight to the death, taking this war to the extreme, as we have seen in Gaza.
3. The IDF strategy is now very clear: destroy all vestiges of Iran’s nuclear program and facilitate regime change, internally or through Iranian surrender.
4. IDF air dominance for the long war. We are currently witnessing a demonstration of Western air power not seen since the Iraq wars. A lesson Putin should take note of, as when he foolishly faces NATO, he may suffer the same fate as Iran is experiencing today, as outlined in Peace by Sky Shield Israeli warplanes have hit more than 400 targets across Iran in the past 24 hours as part of Operation “Rising Lion,” including dozens of missile sites and air defence systems in Tehran. The key objectives of the air campaign are:

• Suppress and destroy all Iranian air defences to gain not just air superiority but air dominance. Once attained, the intensity of the airstrikes will increase. Over the past 24hrs IDF jets continue to strike at Iran’s air defences, radars, and missile systems. Israeli army spokesperson Effie Defrin said the road to Tehran was now "open," calling the strikes the deepest ever carried out by the Israeli Air Force. Netanyahu warned: “We will hit every site and every target of the Ayatollahs’ regime, and what they have felt so far is nothing compared with what they will be handed in the coming days.”
• Nuclear program: Initially inhibit and then completely destroy all facilities, personnel, and infrastructure. There have been continuous strikes on Iran’s key nuclear sites, including Fordow and Isfahan. Although some enrichment facilities have been destroyed, Iran retains a significant portion of its nuclear capability..

• Destruction of Nuclear Facilities in Deep Sites In our pre-war assessment, we highlighted the risk that if Israel were to launch a series of short strikes to disable Iran’s nuclear facilities, it might lack the ability to deploy bunker-busting bombs like the GBU-57 MOP, which must be delivered from a stealthy B-2 bomber(shown below). Despite IDF requests, the US has resisted supplying such bunker busters to date.
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  As a result, Israel might have had to resort to small-yield nuclear earth-penetrators, such as the B61 Mod 11 (now largely retired), designed to vaporize deeply buried facilities. The use of such a weapon would be both politically and strategically highly controversial, and would likely lead to dramatic escalation. However, the current IDF battle plan—focused on achieving air dominance—opens up another option for the destruction of these deep facilities.
  • The Inspiration dates back to April 13, 2017, in Afghanistan, when the U.S. Air Force dropped a 9,800 kg GBU-43/B Massive Ordnance Air Blast (MOAB) fuel-air bomb from the rear of an MC-130 Combat Talon (a special operations variant of the C-130 Hercules). The strike targeted fighters deep within the ISIS-K tunnel complex in Achin District, Nangarhar Province. The primary objective was to collapse tunnel systems and deny sanctuary to militants entrenched in remote mountain redoubts. The explosion was massive—visible and audible for miles—and it sent a clear strategic signal about U.S. willingness to apply overwhelming force. The Pentagon reported that the strike killed 94 ISIS militants, including four commanders, with no civilian casualties.
  • The lesson is clear: once the IDF has gained air dominance, it could similarly use its C-130s in a sustained program to destroy Iran’s underground nuclear production and ballistic missile sites.
  • The ideal weapon would be the GBU-57 MOP, weighing 13,600 kg and capable of penetrating over 200 feet of concrete or 60 feet into hard rock. Designed specifically to destroy the most hardened and deeply buried targets (such as nuclear facilities or mountain bunkers), the bomb is guided to its target by GPS/INS.
  • The MOP is, in essence, a modern-day version of Britain’s WWII Tallboy bombs, used to bust Hitler’s most fortified bunkers. It is engineered with a hardened penetrator nose to withstand the immense forces of high-speed impact against reinforced concrete or rock. It employs a JDAM GPS guidance system for pinpoint accuracy, supported by an inertial navigation system (INS) as a backup in GPS-denied environments. A delayed fuse ensures the bomb detonates only after reaching maximum depth. Its dense, elongated design and high-strength alloy steel casing allow it to maintain structural integrity while burrowing through earth and fortified materials. The aerodynamic form maximizes both stability and kinetic energy for deep penetration.
  • This technology could easily have been developed secretly by the IDF, or—like many other Israeli munitions—acquired from the United States. If so, Iran’s belief that its deep sites are safe would be yet another example of dangerous hubris.
• Decapitation of leadership: Initially via strategic surprise, followed by continuous drone coverage and suppression strikes. Over 20 senior Iranian commanders, including intelligence and missile officials, have been eliminated. The IDF has suggested even Supreme Leader Khamenei is not off-limits.Israel’s air campaign has led to a generational shift in Iran’s military leadership by killing numerous senior officers tied to the longstanding IRGC Command Network. This informal but powerful group, formed through bonds forged in the Iran-Iraq War, held key influence over Iranian military strategy and domestic politics for decades, with direct access to Supreme Leader Khamenei. Its disruption marks a significant blow to one of the Islamic Republic’s most stable and influential power blocs, though the long-term impact on Iranian behavior remains uncertain.
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• Destruction of ballistic missiles: Continued targeting of underground missile depots.
• Destruction of the IRGC: The IDF said the targets included the headquarters of the Iranian Defence Ministry and SPND, the organisation leading Iran’s nuclear research. 
• Destruction of oil and gas infrastructure: IDF airstrikes have expanded to energy infrastructure and have caused fires have broken out in northern Tehran following an Israeli air strike that apparently targeted two fuel depots. “It’s the gasoline depots that are exploding one after another, it’s loud and scary. Israel has reportedly struck a giant Iranian gas field, causing a fire to break out. “Due to a fire in one of the four units of Phase 14 of South Pars, the production of 12 million cubic metres of gas from the Phase 14 platform has been temporarily halted until this section of the refinery is brought back into operation,” the Tasnim news agency reported.
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5. Iran’s retaliatory response, following the initial minimalistic launch of 100 drones—which were shot down before reaching Israeli territory—has built momentum, with 300 out of a total inventory of 3,000 missiles launched in the first 48 hours. The Israel Defence Forces (IDF) have warned that its defence systems are not “hermetic.” We have pointed out that some of Iran’s ballistic missiles have late-stage warhead manoeuvring that can evade missile defences. “At this time, the IAF is operating to intercept and strike where necessary to eliminate the threat.” With a limited arsenal of warheads, it seems strange that Iran has been targeting residential buildings—unless they were misdirected or other targets were around those areas. Multiple hits have been recodred in Tel Aviv.Around Haifa, a major port city. Whilst an Iranian missile strike on the city of Tamra, which is east of Haifa in northern Israel, killed one person and wounded 13 others.
6. IDF news blackouts – The IDF has requested that public footage of missile strikes not be shared, as it provides targeting data to Iranian forces.
7. U.S.–Iran Nuclear Talks Cancelled – Unsurprisingly, the scheduled round of nuclear negotiations between the United States and Iran, due to take place on Sunday in Muscat, the capital of Oman, was cancelled. The decision followed remarks by Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi, who called the talks “unjustifiable” in light of what he described as the “savagery” of Israel. Despite this, former President Trump reportedly remained willing to proceed with the talks, according to an official quoted by AFP.
8. This regional war is rapidly deepening and escalating, especially considering where we are on the war cycle curve. As Iran becomes desperate, it may attempt to close the Gulf and halt its oil production to trigger two possible outcomes:
   • To force Trump to back off and stop Israel
   • To encourage China to come to its aid
9. U.S. Military Engaged Across Air, Land, and Sea to Counter Iranian Strikes – The U.S. military is actively operating in the air, on land, and at sea to intercept Iranian missiles launched at Israel.
   • U.S. fighter jets, Navy destroyers, and ground-based air defence systems were strategically positioned in advance to repel a potential Iranian assault—even before Tehran’s retaliatory strikes began—according to U.S. officials.
   • This operation indicates that Washington may be more directly involved in the conflict than previously suggested. This comes despite reports that former President Donald Trump told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu during a Thursday call that the U.S. would not assist Israel in an attack on Iran. Should the U.S. choose to deepen its military involvement, American embassies and bases could become prime targets for Iranian proxy retaliation.
   • U.S. officials confirmed that American forces played a direct role in intercepting Iranian missiles targeting Israel after wave upon wave of strikes were launched in response to Israel’s surprise attack early Friday morning. The United Kingdom was not believed to have taken part in the defensive efforts.
10. Iran has issued a warning to the United States, United Kingdom, and France, cautioning that any assistance provided to Israel in deterring Tehran’s retaliatory strikes will result in their bases and naval assets in the region being targeted. U.S. officials confirmed on Friday that the American military had assisted in intercepting Iranian missiles aimed at Israel. The missile barrages followed less than 24 hours after Israel’s surprise strike early Friday morning. The United Kingdom was not believed to have taken part in the defensive action. Meanwhile, concerns are rising over diplomatic security. On Friday, it was reported that Britain is closely monitoring the safety of its embassy staff in Tehran, amid fears they could become targets for reprisals. The United States and Canada have already closed their missions in the Iranian capital.
11. Iran Considers Closure of the Strait of Hormuz in Response to Israeli Attack – Iran is seriously reviewing the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, according to a senior hard-line security official in Tehran. Esmail Kosari, a member of the Iranian parliament’s national security commission, stated that the regime is considering shutting down the vital oil shipping route in retaliation for Israel’s recent strike on Iranian territory. The Strait of Hormuz, which connects the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea, is the world’s most critical oil transit chokepoint. It accounts for nearly one-fifth of global oil shipments—around 20 million barrels of crude and refined products per day. This is not the first time Tehran has threatened to close the Strait in response to Western pressure. However, the last time the waterway was effectively disrupted was during the Iran–Iraq Tanker War in 1984. The mere suggestion of a closure has already rattled global energy markets. A disruption in the Strait would likely trigger a sharp spike in oil prices and exacerbate inflationary pressures worldwide.

 

14 June 2025 The Iran–Israel War – GF Analysis Day 1

1. War is never pretty. But the IDF’s strikes mark the culmination of Iran’s long-running war on Israel, which effectively began on October 7th.
2. The IDF has systematically dismantled Iran’s proxy Shia Crescent, designed to hold a sword of Damocles over Israel’s head—clearing a path to the ultimate showdown to cut the head off the Iranian snake.
3. Trump’s delusional attempts at negotiation allowed the Iranian leadership to simply string him along while accelerating toward a nuclear breakout.
4. Iran’s Nuclear Breakout. That very breakout forced Israel to launch a pre-emptive strike against a regime that had vowed to destroy Israel and was only a short time away from owning nuclear weapons.
5. The IDF was forced to initiate Operation Rising Lion—without direct American kinetic support, though it’s almost certain that the U.S. is providing intelligence assistance and homeland ballistic missile defence.
6. This is a full-scale regional war, one that will determine either the survival of Israel or the survival of the Iranian regime. There can be only one victor.Iran described the attack as a “declaration of war” and warned Israel it faced a “bitter and painful” fate over the attacks. Israel mobilised its reservists after strikes on Iran
7. A New IDF Strike Pattern. We predicted that this conflict would not follow the familiar pattern of strike, retaliation, and pause, as it is a battle to the death.
8. Israel's objective is to eradicate Iran's Nuclear program and to also effect a Regime Change—to cut off the head of the snake by removing the mullah regime from power and ending the war decisively. In that regard, Israel is correct—there can be no lasting peace in the Middle East with a Shia regime that seeks the destruction of Israel. Netanyahu has called on Iranians to “rise up” and overthrow Tehran’s “evil and oppressive regime.”
9. Netanyahu will be resolute. While many may have issues with Prime Minister Netanyahu’s personal political ethics, as a war leader fighting for his and Israel’s survival, he is both resolute, determined, and capable, and no doubt will continue the fight until victory is attained.
10. Deception was integral to the plan. The Iranians were lulled into believing an attack was unlikely. Israel reportedly fed a stream of false signals—planted “leaks” hinting at a rift between Netanyahu and Trump, and news stories claiming Netanyahu was about to depart for a family holiday in the Galilee. The result was that the IRGC was caught with its pants down, and the surprise was total—lucky they are not followers of Murrination Gold, then!
11. Israel’s opening strikes were extraordinary in both precision and impact, hitting Iran’s nuclear and military infrastructure. The initial raids on Iran involved about 200 aircraft using 330 different munitions across 100 targets.
12. The IDF utilised a combination of intelligence, special forces, and airstrikes:

• Israel has penetrated almost every secret corner of Iran’s police state, as evidenced by the first strikes targeting. The success of the opening strike is akin to the use of pagers on Hezbollah last year to map the organisation and then decapitate its leaders and lower-tier commanders.
• Special forces drone assaults that started at 03:30 hrs local time from the desert destroyed the early warning radars and surface-to-surface missile launchers at an Iranian base near Tehran aimed towards Israel, opening the way for the IDF strike force. Strikes that destroy components of Iran’s air defence systems will cause a temporary disruption to Iranian defences that would enable Israeli 4th-generation, non-stealthy F-15 and F-16s to operate in Iranian airspace with greater ease.
• The first wave then took out Iran’s air defences with stealthy F-35s, which destroyed “dozens of radars and surface-to-air missile launchers” with HARM anti-radiation missiles. Simultaneous elements of the first wave would have been involved in the decapitation strikes before the alarm could be raised.
• The initial decapitation strikes most likely involved commando teams and stealthy F-35 airstrike combinations, reportedly eliminating three senior military commanders and six nuclear scientists.
  • Salami, the third most powerful man in the country, decided to issue a statement warning that any Israeli attack would be met with a “more forceful and destructive” response than in the past. Shortly afterwards, the missile that killed him blew out an entire floor in his apartment block, spilling out its contents onto the street. Emergency teams raced back and forth in the early hours as more buildings went up in flames.
  • The Revolutionary Guard’s air force command was at the same time meeting in an underground bunker to discuss the forceful retaliation that Salami had vowed—when it too was bombed by Israel. Israel had, according to a security official, tricked the top commanders into the meeting and then struck it. “We did specific activities to help us understand things about them and then used that information to make them act in a specific way,” the official told Fox News. “We knew this would make them meet, but more importantly, we knew how to keep them there.”
  • The Iranian nuclear scientist Fereydoun Abbasi was on X before an Israeli missile struck his apartment and killed him.
  • Some 20 other sites are said to have been hit within 15 minutes to take out individual targets.
• Then the second wave of F-15 Strike Eagles, heavily laden with ordnance, would have gone to work degrading Iran’s nuclear capabilities, sparing only Fordow, which lies deep underground—untouchable to the relatively light ordnance available to the IDF.
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    Iran’s initial retaliatory response, consisting of approximately 100 drones, appears to have been fully neutralised—likely shot down before reaching Israeli territory.
14. Trump is still in a delusional land where negotiation will follow the strikes. Trump posted on his Truth Social platform: first, “There has already been great death and destruction, but there is still time to make this slaughter, with the next already planned attacks being even more brutal, come to an end,” followed by, “I gave Iran chance after chance to make a deal. There has already been great death and destruction, but there is still time to make this slaughter, with the next already planned attacks being even more brutal, come to an end. Iran must make a deal, before there is nothing left…”
15. Iran mounts retaliatory large-scale missile strikes in two waves overnight as 100–150 Iranian ballistic missiles targeted Tel Aviv and Jerusalem as well as Tehran and other sites in the country on Friday, in what the IDF said was an attack on civilians.

• Israel said there were at least five casualties in what would amount to a serious escalation. Iran has not previously aimed missiles at civilian areas. “Iran has crossed red lines by daring to fire missiles at civilian population centres in Israel,” Israel Katz, Israel’s defence minister, said in a statement on Friday.
• Attacks continued early on Saturday morning, with residents in Jerusalem running for shelter as projectiles rained down over the ancient city.
• After the barrage, which lasted hours, Donald Trump warned Iran’s leaders that they faced complete destruction unless they agreed to a deal that put an Iranian nuclear bomb out of reach.
• Before the IDF strike, the US Navy deployed the ABM-capable USS Thomas Hudner to the eastern Mediterranean, presumably to assist Israeli ballistic missile defences

16. The IDF airstrikes have continued similarly to the sustained campaign against Hezbollah, in rolling attacks that hit targets and, after intelligence assessments, either move to the next target or strike again in a systematic program of destruction from the air.
17. Without Iranian air defences, the IDF planes can drop cheap dumb bombs with precision en masse to wreak destruction on all of their targets.
18. Expect news blackouts—as the IDF requests that public footage from missiles not be shared, as it gives targeting data to the Iranians.
19. This was the opening day of a new regional war that risks significant escalation.There are three potential scenarios:

• A bilateral regional war between Israel and Iran, with the United States remaining largely uninvolved.
• A joint military response, in which U.S. forces join Israel in attacking Iran. Triggered if Iranian retaliation directly attacks the United States, for example, through a direct attack or by disrupting oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.
• A diplomatic initiative, where the United States advances a U.N. Security Council resolution calling for an immediate ceasefire. This would raise the diplomatic costs for Iran to retaliate. “The Russians and the Chinese will be smart enough not to veto it,” Yadlin said, noting that such a move would give Trump “much better cards” for negotiating with Iran.

16. Russia receives Shahed drones that are now the predominant attack method against Ukraine, but has no agency to help Iran. The Kremlin claimed that Putin condemned Israel's strikes as violations of the UN Charter and international law. The upside for Putin is that Oil price increases following Israeli strikes against Iran may increase Russian revenue from oil sales and improve Russia's ability to sustain its war effort in Ukraine. 
17. China receives oil from Iran and sends missile technology and raw materials to sustain the IRGC. So the big question is: will this deepening regional war be the Archduke Ferdinand moment that China uses as its casus belli to start its war?
18. America. Trump campaigned on a pro-peace platform as part of his "America First" strategy—yet a war in the Middle East is now unfolding on his watch, with his “peace through strength” rhetoric looking toothless. He is mocked for his election boast to end the Ukraine war on day one. He views words as cheap compared to US military action and will use whatever rhetoric he can to browbeat allies and adversaries alike. “I had no wars. I’m the only president in 72 years—I didn’t have any wars,” he told Fox News last year. Well, he has one now, as we predict that the Israel–Iran war will
19. GF expects this war to deepen and escalate as Iran becomes desperate and will inevtably try to close the Gulf and its oil production to attempt to trigger two outcomes:

• To force Trump to back off and stop Israel
• To encourage China to come to its aid

23. All roads lead to a significant risk of escalation, especially considering our current position on the war cycle curve.

 

13 June 2025, The IDF strikes Iranian Nuclear Sites in the opening engagement of A Sustained Campaign

1.0 The Opening pre-emptive strike on Iran’s Nuclear, weaponisation and missile facilities

Israel has now launched a maximum effort airstrike comprising some 200 IDF F15s and F-35s against Iran, stating that the regime possesses enough fissile material to build 15 nuclear bombs “within days.” Israeli officials said the decision to strike was made after intelligence confirmed that the Islamic Republic was accelerating its progress toward a bomb, despite the ongoing diplomatic talks.

Israel’s warplanes were in the air barely two hours after Trump had laid out the case for continuing talks — or appeasement — with Iran over the weekend. “We remain committed to a diplomatic resolution to the Iran nuclear issue,” he posted on his Truth Social site. “My entire administration has been directed to negotiate with Iran.”Speaking to Fox News, Trump denied that the US played any role in the strikes and expressed hope that they might actually help bring Iran back to the negotiating table:“Iran cannot have a nuclear bomb, and we are hoping to get back to the negotiating table. We’ll see. There are several people in leadership who will not be coming back,” he said.

The Americans had reportedly been forewarned that Israel had run out of patience with Iran’s nuclear ambitions and its continued defiance of international constraints. Clearly, Netanyahu sold his strike to Trump as follows: From Trump’s perspective, as long as the US is not directly militarily involved, there may be a strategic advantage in allowing Israel to take military action, effectively forcing the Iranian regime back to negotiations from a significantly weakened position. Trump's tacit agreement to the strikes meant that the IDF's F-35s could be employed in the strikes- a key component of SAM suppression in the first strike wave.

GF asses that The markets and world will think that this is a one off strike and after an Iranian retaliation, it will calm down. However, we predict that this is a very different scenario as without a nuclear program, the Iranian regime will collapse, so it will fight to the death. As such, this strike is, with a high probability, the opening chapter of a full-scale war between Iran and Israel. Explosions lit up the night sky over Tehran as Israeli jets struck both nuclear and conventional regime targets, and without direct US military support.

This war is now shaping into an existential battle between Israel and the IRGC-backed religious regime in Tehran, and there is a high probability that it will escalate further into a fully blown regional war.

 

2.0 Netanyahu- Operation Rising Lion-

Key Phrases

• "Moments ago, Israel launched Operation Rising Lion, a targeted military operation to roll back the Iranian threat to Israel's very survival.
• “We are at a decisive moment in Israel’s history,”
• “We are defending the free world from the terrorism and barbarism that Iran fosters and exports across the globe.”
• “This operation will take as long as is needed to complete the task of fending off the threat of annihilation against us.”
• ‘’Our fight is with the brutal regime that has oppressed you for 40 years’’
• “We can’t leave these threats for the next generation,” he continues. “Because if we don’t act now, there will not be another generation. If we don’t act now, we simply won’t be here,”
• “Never Again’ is now,

 

3.0 Netanyahu- The full speech, which is worth reading

Whilst Global Forecaster holds serious reservations about Netanyahu’s political conduct, he remains the right leader to defend Israel against Iran’s escalating war. His personal survival and that of the nation are now inextricably linked — until the conflict is resolved. One can only wish that Western leaders demonstrated similar boldness and decisiveness when confronting threats of war and aggression from Russia, Iran, and China

Moments ago, Israel launched Operation Rising Lion, a targeted military operation to roll back the Iranian threat to Israel's very survival.
This operation will continue for as many days as it takes to remove this threat.

For decades, the pirates of Tehran have brazenly and openly called for Israel's destruction.
They backed up their genocidal rhetoric with a programme to develop nuclear weapons.
Over the years, they have produced enough highly enriched uranium for nine atomic bombs.
In recent months, Iran has taken steps it has never taken before—steps to weaponise this enriched uranium.
If not stopped, Iran could produce a nuclear weapon in a very short time.
It could be a year. It could be within a few months—less than a year.

This is a clear and present danger to Israel’s very survival.
Eighty years ago, the Jewish people were the victims of a Holocaust perpetrated by the Nazis.
Today, the Jewish state refuses to be the victim of a nuclear Holocaust perpetrated by the Iranian regime.

As Prime Minister, I have made it clear time and again: we will never allow those who call for our annihilation to develop the means to achieve that goal.
Tonight, Israel backed those words with action.
We struck at the heart of Iran’s nuclear enrichment programme.
We struck at the heart of Iran’s nuclear weaponisation programme.
We targeted Iran’s main enrichment facility and its leading nuclear scientists working on the Iranian bomb.
We also struck at the heart of Iran’s ballistic missile programme.

Last year, Iran fired 300 ballistic missiles at Israel.
Each carried a ton of explosives and threatened the lives of hundreds of people.
Soon, those missiles could carry nuclear payloads, threatening the lives of hundreds of millions.
Iran is gearing up to produce 10,000 of these ballistic missiles within three years.
Just imagine—10,000 tons of TNT landing on a country the size of New Jersey.

This is Iran’s new plan to destroy Israel.
The old plan failed. They tried to encircle Israel in a ring of fire and launched the horrific attack of October 7.
But the people and soldiers of Israel rose like lions to defend our country.
We smashed Hamas.
We devastated Hezbollah.
We hit Iranian proxies in Syria and Yemen.
And twice last year, when Iran directly attacked us with long-range missile barrages, we struck back inside Iran itself.

In defending ourselves, we also defend others.
We defend our Arab neighbours, who have suffered from Iran’s campaign of chaos and carnage.
Our actions against Iran’s proxies have led to the establishment of a new government in Lebanon and the collapse of Assad’s murderous regime in Syria.
The people of those two countries now have a chance for a different future—a better future.

To the brave people of Iran, I have a message for you. Our fight is not with you.Our fight is with the brutal dictatorship that has oppressed you for 46 years.
I believe that the day of your liberation is near.
When that happens, the great friendship between our two ancient peoples will flourish once again.

I want to assure the civilised world: We will not let the world’s most dangerous regime acquire the world’s most dangerous weapons. Especially as Iran plans to give those weapons to its dangerous proxies.
That would make the nightmare of nuclear terrorism all too real.

The increasing range of Iran’s ballistic missiles would bring nuclear weapons within reach of cities in Europe—and eventually America.Remember: Iran calls Israel “the Little Satan” and America “the Great Satan”.

For decades, they’ve led millions in chants of “Death to Israel” and “Death to America”.Today, Israel is responding to those genocidal calls with action—and with a call of our own: Long live Israel, and long live America.
Our action will help make the world a much safer place.

I want to thank President Trump for his leadership in confronting Iran’s nuclear weapons programme. He has made it clear that Iran cannot have a nuclear programme. Today, it is clear that Iran is defying this basic requirement of peaceful nations.
That is why we have no choice but to act—and act now.

The hardest decision any leader has to make is to act against danger before it is fully realised. In the early 20th century, facing the Nazis, a generation of leaders failed to act in time. They were paralysed by the memory of World War I.
They were determined to avoid war at all costs—and they got the worst war ever. They adopted the policy of appeasement. They closed their eyes and ears to all the warning signs.

That failure to act resulted in World War II, the deadliest war in history, claiming the lives of 60 million people, including 6 million Jews—one-third of my people. After the war, the Jewish people and the Jewish state vowed: Never Again.
Well, “Never Again” is now.

Today, Israel has shown that we’ve learned the lessons of history. When enemies vow to destroy you—believe them. When enemies build weapons of mass death—they must be stopped.

As the Bible teaches: when someone comes to kill you, rise and act first. This is exactly what Israel has done today. We have risen like lions to defend ourselves.

Over 3,000 years ago, Moses gave the people of Israel a message that still steels our resolve: “Be strong and courageous.”
 

Today, our strong and courageous soldiers and citizens stand together to defend ourselves against those who seek our destruction. And by defending ourselves, we defend many others. We have rolled back murderous tyranny.

Generations from now, history will record that our generation stood its ground, acted in time, and secured our common future.

God bless Israel.
May God bless the forces of civilisation everywhere.
Thank you.

 

4.0 IDF commentary

An IDF  military official stated:

“Nuclear scientists and senior officials in Iran have been working secretly to develop all the components necessary for a nuclear weapon — including explosive materials, enriched uranium for the core, and a neutron source.”

“Based on this decision, the regime now possesses enough fissile material to build 15 nuclear bombs within days. In recent months, secret attempts to assemble these components have been made with the regime’s approval.”

Israel also cited Iran’s plans to “triple” its stockpile of conventional ballistic missiles as a major reason for launching its preemptive strike, describing the missile expansion as an “existential threat” to the State of Israel.

A military source warned: “If we don’t act now, each passing day reduces our chances. We have a gun to our head. We are approaching the point of no return.”

Israeli strategists have reportedly been advocating for a strike during what they view as a favourable military window, following the IDF’s successful destruction of Iran’s S-300 air defence systems last autumn.

 

5.0 Known Initial Targets

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that the country’s initial strikes on Iran were “very successful. ”We are off to a very successful start, and with God’s help, we are going to achieve many great achievements,” he said.

5.1 Israeli Mossad agents conducted significant covert operations inside Iran to sabotage its air defence systems and military assets ahead of surprise airstrikes launched early Friday morning, according to a senior Israeli security official.

Operatives from the national intelligence agency were reportedly deployed deep into central Iran, where they positioned precision-guided drone weaponry near key surface-to-air missile systems. According to the official, Mossad agents also embedded strike systems and advanced technologies into civilian vehicles, which were remotely activated to destroy Iranian air defence targets at the outset of the assault. In addition, Israel established a clandestine FPV drone base within Iranian territory. The official noted that the drone systems had been covertly smuggled and staged well before the operation. These drones were activated to strike surface-to-surface missile launchers at the Esfajabad military base near Tehran.

Israel also conducted covert operations against Iranian ballistic missile launchers, likely limiting Iran’s ability to retaliate immediately with such weapons. On June 12, Israel reportedly used a secret one-way attack drone base inside Iran to strike missile launchers near Tehran. The Israeli Air Force also targeted additional Iranian ballistic missile sites.In response, Iran launched over 100 drones at Israel, approximately six hours after the Israeli strikes. Syrian sources reported missile impacts in Syria, although it's unclear whether these were Iranian missiles or fallen interceptors.

Iranian leaders had announced plans for an “immediate counterstrike” involving hundreds of ballistic missiles on June 11. However, the limited scale of their actual response suggests these plans were disrupted, likely due to the effectiveness of Israel’s preemptive drone operations that disabled a substantial portion of Iran’s launch capabilities.It is unlikely that Iran would decide only to use drones to attack Israel in response to the recent Israeli airstrikes, given that it has learned that drones are less effective against Israel than large amounts of ballistic and cruise missiles. Israeli media stated that the IDF intercepted all Iranian drones targeting Israel on June 13, which underscores how Israel’s attacks on Iranian ballistic missile launchers likely caused Iran to have to conduct an underwhelming immediate retaliation against Israel.

 

5.2 Decapitation Strikes- Similar to the Hexbollha campaign, the first stage of the attacks has focused on decapitation, killing three senior commanders. The headquarters of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) were reportedly ablaze, suggesting that Israel is targeting not only military infrastructure but also key elements of the regime’s command structure. The current Killed list is-

• Major General Hossein Salami – Commander-in-Chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), killed during strikes on Tehran military targets (above left)

• Major General Mohammad Bagheri, Chief of Staff of Iran’s Armed Forces, was killed in the early morning attack. (above right)

• Major General Gholam Ali Rashid – Deputy Commander-in-Chief and head of the Khatam-al Anbiya Central Headquarters, also killed in the strikes. 

• Ali Shamkhani – Former Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council and a senior advisor to Ayatollah Khamenei, was critically wounded and later confirmed dead

• Additionally, two prominent nuclear scientists—Fereydoun Abbasi‑Davani and Mohammad Mehdi Tehranchi—were reported killed, along with four unknown scientists.

5.3 Explosions were reported in Natanz, one of Iran’s two known underground nuclear sites, according to state television. Iranian state media also reported that prominent nuclear scientists Fereydoun Abbasi-Davani and Mohammad Mehdi Tehranchi were killed in an Israeli strike earlier this morning. Subsequent reports count six key nuclear scientists killed.

5.4 Fordow was notably absent from the list of reported Israeli targets—a glaring omission that underscores the site's strategic resilience. Deep inside Iran’s mountains near Qom, the Fordow uranium enrichment facility is buried under layers of reinforced rock and concrete, making it one of the most heavily fortified nuclear sites in the world. Its location and construction are specifically designed to withstand conventional airstrikes. As such, Israel lacks the deep-penetration ordnance and strategic bombers required to destroy Fordow on its own. This limitation means that any serious attempt to neutralise the facility would require direct U.S. military support, likely involving bunker-busting munitions like the Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) deployed by American B-2 bombers. The decision not to target Fordow—at least in this initial wave—signals both operational constraints and the geopolitical calculus of escalation management.

5.5 Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant Meanwhile, the Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Rafael Mariano Grossi, stated that Iran’s first commercial nuclear facility was not targeted in the strikes. “Iranian authorities have informed the IAEA that the Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant has not been targeted and that no increase in radiation levels has been observed at the Natanz site,” Grossi stated.

GF believes that this is the opening strike in a multisequence battle plan which comprises a regional war of survival

 

6.0 Iran Vows Retaliation

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has warned that Israel will pay a heavy price for its recent strike, which killed the IRGC’s top commander, Hossein Salami. In a statement, the IRGC pledged “decisive retaliation against its sworn enemies,” and accused the United States of complicity.

Israel is now bracing for a retaliatory wave of missile and drone attacks. Israel’s military reported that over 100 Iranian drones have been launched toward the country, triggering a wide-scale defence mobilisation. The drones are expected to take up to nine hours to travel the approximately 1,500 km from Iran to Israeli airspace.The drone strike is believed to be a prelude to a larger ballistic missile attack, potentially designed to overwhelm Israel’s aerial defence systems. In preparation, Israel has closed its main international airport, while neighbouring Jordan has temporarily shut its airspace as a precaution against spillover from the unfolding conflict.

 

7.0 The Path to Escalation to a Fully Blown Regional War

Global Forecaster predicts that this conflict will inevitably escalate as Iran’s regime grows increasingly desperate. The IDF is expected to pursue the destruction of both Iran’s nuclear and missile programs, as well as the Ayatollahs’ regime, which is facilitated by the IRGC.

1. Iran attacks Israel. Iran has threatened to attack Israel and is expected to do so using drones and missiles. In October, following Israeli airstrikes on Iranian missile production facilities and air defence systems, Iran retaliated by launching a barrage of missiles at Israel. While most were intercepted by Israeli air defences—with support from the US, Britain, and France—around two dozen Fateh-110 missiles penetrated the shield, striking an airfield housing a fleet of F-35 jets just a few hundred metres from Mossad’s headquarters. For Israel and the US, a key challenge in any first strike would be to neutralise as many Iranian missile batteries as possible in the opening wave to limit the scale of retaliation.

2. Iran responds with missile strikes on US bases  Iran possesses thousands of medium-range missiles capable of reaching US bases across the region, including installations in neighbouring Iraq and the al-Udeid airbase in Qatar. In 2020, it carried out missile strikes on US airbases in Iraq in retaliation for the killing of military commander Qasem Soleimani by an American drone strike.

3. Iran disrupts shipping in the Persian Gulf
The Persian Gulf is a critical artery for global oil shipments, with up to 30 per cent of the world's supply passing through the Strait of Hormuz. A regional conflict could significantly disrupt this flow, and at some stage, we expect the IRGC to block the waterway. Britain’s maritime agency, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO), has already issued warnings to vessels operating in the area. Iran has previously sabotaged or attacked ships in the region as a form of pressure on Gulf states and Western powers.

4. Iran targets oil fields in the region. The Middle East supplies roughly 30 per cent of global oil, with major producers including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Kuwait. In 2019, a missile and drone attack—blamed on Iran—temporarily halved Saudi oil production, removing 5 per cent of global supply from the market. While Iran has since improved relations with Saudi Arabia and others, it has signalled that it could once again target oil fields if its nuclear facilities come under attack.