Global Military Balance

Winston Churchill once said about history, ‘The longer you can look back, the farther you can look forward’. As we approach the centenary of the end of World War I (WWI), perhaps it is time to ask questions about whether we really understand why such a destructive war, which blighted a generation, took place, and more importantly, how it was won. And out of respect for those that gave their lives and for the benefit of future generations, we must ask the key question: Have we learned the necessary lessons to avoid it ever happening again?

Trump’s strategy to reverse America's global decline has impacted three critical areas of American foreign policy: Russian relations, the Middle East and China. I have not included North Korea because it is, in reality, part of the Chinese challenge to oblate American power. It is worth remembering that North Korea ascended to become a nuclear power by using the distraction of the second Iraq war, on the basis that America would not fight on two fronts. It worked and is a lesson that Kim seems not to have forgotten.

One of the core thesis of BTCH is that there are five stages of an Empire: the first of which is characterised by “copy and assimilate” as a rising system seeks to gain best practice knowledge to accelerate its growth. For many years China was known as just that, a nation that copied others. Indeed it has taken this “copy and assimilate” stage to new levels with its systemised, government sponsored intelligence operations designed to extract every piece of IP for advanced technology from every nation in the world, specifically America.

America has been building the political pressure towards both North Korea and China to bring about a peaceful resolution to North Korea’s nuclear ambitions. That pressure reached white hot levels when America orchestrated the capture of the Hong-Kong-flagged oil tanker which was accused of transferring 600 tons of refined oil to a North Korean ship in October in violation of United Nations sanctions.

Trump's success in passing his tax bill is a major achievement and one that in the long run could make the world a safer place. It is the first of two critical elements that can temporarily reinvigorate the US economy. The second is to restructure the US debt burden but that is at the moment a little way ahead.

One topic that my readers know I feel deeply concerned about, is Britain's failed defence policy and the urgent need to remedy this potentially catastrophic situation. The urgency could not be better illuminated by yesterday's North Korean ballistic missile test that places Britain within reach of the despotic Kim. This threat is but one of many simultaneous threats on the horizon.

Red lines are dangerous concepts in the game of geopolitics. When they are drawn, they have to be enforceable and the creator has to have the intent to follow through with force if they are crossed. Obama’s chemical red line in Syria was the end of his credibility and what happened thereafter was an accelerated degradation of American influence and power.

During the arms race in the late thirties, Britain and the Royal Navy did all they could to ensure that the nation preserved its naval dominance over Germany. However, there were a few anomalies.

Since 2005, Breaking the Code of History has predicted the rise of Chinese economic power that would directly compete with the American empire. The nature of the competition would be economic and would then be followed by resource competition and a simultaneous Chinese military expansion that would inevitably result in the rise of Chinese blue water naval capabilities to challenge the USN and its allies.