In this fifteenth instalment of Longview Conversations With, CEO Chris Watling speaks with David Murrin — geopolitical strategist, market forecaster, and founder of Global Forecaster — in a wide-ranging discussion on war patterns and geopolitical tensions. Murrin, originally a geophysicist in Papua New Guinea, developed an early interest in collective human behaviour that shaped his work across markets and conflict. After JP Morgan and co-founding Emergent Asset Management, he launched Global Forecaster, advising governments, militaries, and financial institutions.
His 2009 book Breaking the Code of History outlines his Five Stages of Empire and 108–112 year hegemonic war cycle theory, frameworks behind his non-consensus forecasts. The conversation explores this war cycle and today’s position within it, alongside his fractal, quantum-inspired view of market behaviour during conflict. Murrin argues tensions around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz may persist longer than markets expect, supporting elevated oil prices. He also highlights Western strategic weakness and declining defence capacity, while pointing to China’s steady build-up as it positions itself as the next hegemonic power. We hope you enjoy it.
00:00 - Introduction
02:00 - A bit about David & his methods
10:54 - Hegemonic war cycles theory & more
37:30 - A current assessment of geopolitics
49:30 - The Straight of Hormuz & oil forecast
01:06:20 - China within this
01:14:00 - Final thoughts on market impacts
© David Murrin 2026. All images courtesy of Getty Images. |