The Next Commodity Surge Has Commenced
We believe that the commodity sector is now at the start of one of its biggest rallies in 56 years with an expected peak in 2025-27, as recently explained in my CIOs Macro View for July – Increased Volatility Ahead.
Commodities, after the completion of their wave 2 over the past 14 months, are now moving off their lows in what we expect to be the commencement of wave 3. Notably, Copper/Nickel/Wheat/Natural Gas have been leading the way, but others in the complex now seem to be following, such as WTI. We note that China is constricting two rare earth metals, consistent with the beginning of wave 3, which is all about resource constriction and escalating conflict.
As we explain in our upcoming Murrination, this period of accelerating commodity/input prices will not only fuel a massive surge into the 2025-27 peak, but represents a period of increased human entropy, as explained in A New Understanding of the Dynamics of Inflation, with all human social systems coming under enormous pressure, forcing adaptation or collapse. This will include an escalation of the ongoing WW3 between NATO and Russia, in which China makes its kinetic move and declares war on America and its allies, as described in Red Peril 17: Why Xi's War Will Start With Pearl Harbour V2.0, AKA Red Lightning – Part 5. What is most concerning is that, whilst America and its allies are aware of the risk of Xi’s aggression, they think it is coming at some time in the future - around 2027. However, our analysis suggests that it is imminent, and we are into extra time with respect to this risk.
© David Murrin 2025. All images courtesy of Getty Images. |