We believe that the commodity sector is now at the start of one of its biggest rallies in 56 years with an expected peak in 2025-27, as recently explained in my CIOs Macro View for July – Increased Volatility Ahead.
Commodities, after the completion of their wave 2 over the past 14 months, are now moving off their lows in what we expect to be the commencement of wave 3. Notably, Copper/Nickel/Wheat/Natural Gas have been leading the way, but others in the complex now seem to be following, such as WTI. We note that China is constricting two rare earth metals, consistent with the beginning of wave 3, which is all about resource constriction and escalating conflict.
As we explain in our upcoming Murrination, this period of accelerating commodity/input prices will not only fuel a massive surge into the 2025-27 peak, but represents a period of increased human entropy, as explained in A New Understanding of the Dynamics of Inflation, with all human social systems coming under enormous pressure, forcing adaptation or collapse. This will include an escalation of the ongoing WW3 between NATO and Russia, in which China makes its kinetic move and declares war on America and its allies, as described in Red Peril 17: Why Xi's War Will Start With Pearl Harbour V2.0, AKA Red Lightning – Part 5. What is most concerning is that, whilst America and its allies are aware of the risk of Xi’s aggression, they think it is coming at some time in the future - around 2027. However, our analysis suggests that it is imminent, and we are into extra time with respect to this risk.
Related Theories
Articles and commentary post publication
08 November 8, 2023: Russia accused of attacking civilian grain ship in Black Sea. https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/russia-accused-of-attacking-civilian-grain-ship-in-black-sea-3qd72pt9q
Russia struck a civilian grain ship with a Kh-31P anti-radar missile in the direction of one of the ports of Odesa from tactical aircraft in the Black Sea only hours after the Kremlin Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said that the Black Sea grain deal could not be revived. “The missile hit the superstructure of a civilian vessel under the flag of Liberia at the moment of its entry into the port. Three crew members (citizens of the Philippines) are injured, one of them is hospitalized. The pilot died and another port worker was injured.” This is a continuation of the ongoing blockade and constriction of resources.
20 September 2023: Sunak faces fresh inflation headache as oil price hits $95, potentially scuppering his ludicrous promise of halving inflation as Brent oil prices hit $96 as we have been predicting as Russia and Saudi Arabia conspire to limit production and push up global costs. Inflation figures published on Wednesday [today] are expected to show the first acceleration in consumer prices since February. Analysts have forecast a 7.1pc rise for August on the year, up from July when consumer price inflation came in at 6.8pc. Petrol hit £1.54 per litre on average this week, according to figures from the Department for Energy Security, up from £1.49 a month ago to its most expensive since December. Diesel is rising even more rapidly, up 6p to £1.58 over the past four weeks, confirming our predictions that the cost of living crisis is far from over.
10 September 2023: Soaring oil prices are an ominous sign of a new world order
Oil prices are up almost a third over the last three months. It’s a hugely significant increase that could seriously aggravate the UK’s cost-of-living crisis. Yet this oil price surge seems to have barely been noticed by much of our political and media class. Throughout the summer, the economic data has been weak across Europe, alongside a sharp slowdown in China – the world’s largest crude importer. As such, demand for oil should be slowing, causing prices to fall. Yet oil prices have still surged over the last three months, despite a sluggish global economy. This is the first time Brent crude has gone above $90 this year. Its US equivalent, West Texas Intermediate, is also at a 10-month high.
04 September 2023: Surging price of oil raises cost of filling a tank by £4
As per our energy price predictions, motorists faced one of the biggest monthly fuel price rises in more than two decades in August, figures show. The average cost of a litre of petrol rose by 7p last month, the fifth largest monthly increase in 23 years, according to the RAC. The price of a litre of diesel rose by 8p, the sixth largest monthly increase. Sadly, there is much more of this energy inflation to come in the months ahead.
21 July 2023: Vladimir Putin’s Food Constriction could win him the war
Following Russia’s withdrawal this week from the deal brokered in July 2022 by the UN and Turkey, guaranteeing safe passage for grain exports, Russian missile attacks on Ukraine’s southern coast have destroyed 60,000 tonnes of grain and damaged vital storage infrastructure. Putin is clearly waging a vicious campaign to try to bring famine to Africa and leverage upon the West. Turkey has been humiliated and will be sympathetic. African nations are listening, with Kenya’s government describing Russia’s decision to withdraw as a “stab in the back”.
21 July 2023: We’ll treat all ships leaving Ukraine as military, warns Russia in grain row
Russia unleashed a third night of attacks against Black Sea ports after warning that all ships would be treated as hostile, intensifying efforts to block Ukraine’s grain exports.
© David Murrin 2024. All images courtesy of Getty Images. |
08 November 8, 2023: Russia accused of attacking civilian grain ship in Black Sea. https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/russia-accused-of-attacking-civilian-grain-ship-in-black-sea-3qd72pt9q
Russia struck a civilian grain ship with a Kh-31P anti-radar missile in the direction of one of the ports of Odesa from tactical aircraft in the Black Sea only hours after the Kremlin Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said that the Black Sea grain deal could not be revived. “The missile hit the superstructure of a civilian vessel under the flag of Liberia at the moment of its entry into the port. Three crew members (citizens of the Philippines) are injured, one of them is hospitalized. The pilot died and another port worker was injured.” This is a continuation of the ongoing blockade and constriction of resources.
20 September 2023: Sunak faces fresh inflation headache as oil price hits $95, potentially scuppering his ludicrous promise of halving inflation as Brent oil prices hit $96 as we have been predicting as Russia and Saudi Arabia conspire to limit production and push up global costs. Inflation figures published on Wednesday [today] are expected to show the first acceleration in consumer prices since February. Analysts have forecast a 7.1pc rise for August on the year, up from July when consumer price inflation came in at 6.8pc. Petrol hit £1.54 per litre on average this week, according to figures from the Department for Energy Security, up from £1.49 a month ago to its most expensive since December. Diesel is rising even more rapidly, up 6p to £1.58 over the past four weeks, confirming our predictions that the cost of living crisis is far from over.
10 September 2023: Soaring oil prices are an ominous sign of a new world order
Oil prices are up almost a third over the last three months. It’s a hugely significant increase that could seriously aggravate the UK’s cost-of-living crisis. Yet this oil price surge seems to have barely been noticed by much of our political and media class. Throughout the summer, the economic data has been weak across Europe, alongside a sharp slowdown in China – the world’s largest crude importer. As such, demand for oil should be slowing, causing prices to fall. Yet oil prices have still surged over the last three months, despite a sluggish global economy. This is the first time Brent crude has gone above $90 this year. Its US equivalent, West Texas Intermediate, is also at a 10-month high.
04 September 2023: Surging price of oil raises cost of filling a tank by £4
As per our energy price predictions, motorists faced one of the biggest monthly fuel price rises in more than two decades in August, figures show. The average cost of a litre of petrol rose by 7p last month, the fifth largest monthly increase in 23 years, according to the RAC. The price of a litre of diesel rose by 8p, the sixth largest monthly increase. Sadly, there is much more of this energy inflation to come in the months ahead.
21 July 2023: Vladimir Putin’s Food Constriction could win him the war
Following Russia’s withdrawal this week from the deal brokered in July 2022 by the UN and Turkey, guaranteeing safe passage for grain exports, Russian missile attacks on Ukraine’s southern coast have destroyed 60,000 tonnes of grain and damaged vital storage infrastructure. Putin is clearly waging a vicious campaign to try to bring famine to Africa and leverage upon the West. Turkey has been humiliated and will be sympathetic. African nations are listening, with Kenya’s government describing Russia’s decision to withdraw as a “stab in the back”.
21 July 2023: We’ll treat all ships leaving Ukraine as military, warns Russia in grain row
Russia unleashed a third night of attacks against Black Sea ports after warning that all ships would be treated as hostile, intensifying efforts to block Ukraine’s grain exports.