Murrination Insights

For more than three decades, Western airpower has rested on the assumption that low observable aircraft could penetrate defended airspace with relative impunity. A capability task…

As we move into what may be the final pre-kinetic phase before a major war in the Pacific, it is precisely the moment to revisit history’s most instructive failures —those shaped by…

Many have asked what I believe the Chinese Communist Party's (CCP) grand strategy is. My answer is straightforward: the pursuit of global dominance and control of the human…

As we argued in our Murrination Irans War on Israel 17: Trump's Forced Ceasefire - The Calm Before the Next Storm  was driven less by strategic necessity than by his desire for…

NATO Major General Maik Keller says he sees no evidence that Western military support for Ukraine is weakening, stressing that long term commitment remains essential as the war shows…

The Napoleonic War was not an isolated European conflict but the culmination of more than a century of relentless Anglo-French rivalry—a struggle for global supremacy…

History often explains civilisational collapse in terms of lost wars, ideology, economics, or external shocks. However, far less attention is paid to the internal pathologies that…

Having outlined the potential Chinese battle plan in  WW 86; Red Peril 55; The Battle For Taiwan and Western Pacfic. In this Murrination, we examine the proposed U.S. PACOM strategy…

Some moments in History are much bigger than others, such as Trump's Greenland Grab. A move that we have been warning he would make since Trump 5; America's New Imperialist Defensive…

For more than a decade, U.S. officials have warned that Chinese intelligence operations would increasingly blur the line between civilian activity and state-directed espionage. We…

Immigration has shaped the rise and fall of nations for centuries, yet today’s debate is often reduced to simplistic binaries: pro-immigration vs. anti-immigration. This framing…

In the decades before 1914, Imperial Germany increasingly viewed itself as the natural hegemonic successor to the British Empire—an ascendant continental titan whose demographic…

Across Europe today, many remain complacent, believing that the war in Ukraine is distant, frozen along static front lines and unlikely to affect them directly. Some are so blind to…

The ancient Greek concept of amartia—the fatal flaw of overreaching pride that blinds leaders to reality—has today found a modern host in the far right currents of MAGA in the United…

In my Five Stages of Empire model, demographics are the primary engine of self-organisation within human social systems, driving the expansionary energy that enables civilisations to…

Europe and the Western world are living through an extraordinary form of strategic blindness—what Global Forecaster has long defined as extinction dissonance; the collective…

The Founding Fathers created the United States with one overriding fear, the rise of a demagogue who could bend a republic to his will. Their experience with monarchy, factionalism…

Trump’s “Snatch and Replace” operation in Venezuela, coupled with the unfolding regime change campaign in Iran, has marked a significant geopolitical shift. In our assessment, these…

We previously argued in an earlier Murrination that the October 7th attacks were triggered, in part, by a surge in inflation within Iran and rising domestic unrest. These internal…

Putin launched the invasion of Ukraine, believing it would restore Russia’s stature as a great power. Instead, it has accelerated a geopolitical reversal unprecedented in modern…

China “expects to be able to fight and win a war over Taiwan” by the end of 2027, according to a draft Pentagon report. The assessment states that Beijing is rapidly refining its…

I was a young boy when I first picked up Isaac Asimov’s Foundation. Like many boys of my generation, I was drawn to the allure of science fiction—the vastness of space, the grandeur…

The strategic breakouts of Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan during the Second World War were born from acute strategic compression—tightening economic, political, and…

As weapons systems became increasingly complex with industrialisation—and especially during the technological explosions of the First and Second World Wars—specific breakthrough…

The Royal Navy is at its lowest operational ebb at the very moment Britain faces a resurgent and increasingly aggressive Russian navy. To counter this threat, the Royal Navy requires…

The unveiling of Washington’s new security doctrine marks a decisive turning point in transatlantic relations — and not for the better as the covert Trump policy becomes overt. What…

Global Forecaster, in its Murrination analysis, typically does not focus on market dynamics; that responsibility lies with our inside out hedge fund, Global Trader: Your External CIO…

In our Murrination series on Strategic Compression, we explain why this is the most critical strategic construct to understand in geopolitics today. Strategic Compression is the…

Just as the Spanish Civil War served as the proving ground that generated the concepts, technologies and confidence underpinning the German Blitzkrieg, the war in Ukraine is…

The relationship between a nation's expansionary energy and its strategic compression is key to understanding past hegemonic wars. This is not just a historical phenomenon but one…

Throughout history, expanding empires have been driven outwards by powerful internal forces—surging populations, rising economic output, cohesive national identity and a growing…

Trump’s foreign policy is now the official 2025 National Security Strategy, marking the first update since the Biden administration released the 2022 strategy.  The document’s…

Tomahawk cruise missiles have been a cornerstone of U.S. strike capability for decades. They are widely regarded as the best in breed, costing roughly $2.1 million each, ensuring…

Helium is one of the most strategically important elements in the modern world, essential to technologies that underpin medicine, national security and the future of computing. Its…

Tensions between Japan and China have entered their most volatile period in decades, driven by the rapid expansion of the PLA Navy and the CCP’s increasingly assertive expansionist…

For over five centuries, global power has rested on the mastery of the oceans, from Elizabethan England’s daring raids against Spain that evolved into Britain's domination of the…

The Greeks understood that the gravest danger to a society is not stupidity but clever minds estranged from wisdom, and they had a word for the brilliant, educated people who cannot…

The giveaway of the Chagos Islands is one of Britain’s most strategically important assets in the entire Indian Ocean. Mauritius, a state increasingly entangled with Chinese…

I have come up with a new term; Trump’s “peace bombs”, which are diplomatic interventions driven by his own agenda, to benefit himself through either money or false recognition, that…

Meeting the demands of NATO’s evolving Multi-Domain Operations (MDO) concept requires the Royal Navy to invest in the most advanced undersea capabilities. MDO is a strategic form of…

In previous Murrinations, we have highlighted episodes in history that raise an uncomfortable contemporary question; what happens when a government is reluctant to discuss…

So this is how the late stage of decline within the five stages of empire feels like to live through. To the majority of sane, grounded people in what was once the free West, it now…

In the early hours of April 26, 1986, Reactor 4 at the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant exploded. Within minutes, firefighters and plant workers faced a radiological inferno without…

Applied quantum mechanics has transformed, and continues to transform our world in ways that challenge our deepest assumptions about reality. Now, scientists are beginning to see…

Democratic Governments often argue that wartime secrecy protects lives. Sometimes it does. But history shows there are moments when secrecy shields failure, misleads the public, and…

Today in Britain is Remembrance Sunday, just two days before Armistice Day, which is marked by the eleventh hour of the eleventh day of the eleventh month, when the guns of the First…

The history of the First World War demonstrates that the period of battlefield immobility from 1915 to early 1918 spurred the development of new tactics that ultimately…

Putin's father was a Russian submariner, and, as such, he is the head of state who truly understands and values submarine power and has made the build-out of Russian submarine…

Over the past decade and a half, Putin has driven an ambitious programme to modernise Russia’s nuclear arsenal. Both to restore strategic parity and to develop novel delivery systems…

“If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles.” — Sun Tzu, The Art of War. But do we in the West truly understand the cultural shaping…

By early 1942, America and Australia were in precarious positions as Japan’s forces swept through Southeast Asia and the Pacific. Australia,…

History offers a stark warning: the most advanced weapon on the battlefield is useless if you cannot produce it in sufficient numbers to sustain the fight. In World War II,…

In the world of empires, what expands must eventually contract. Hegemonies do not simply die; they are first forced into retreat by the rising military capabilities of an ascendant…

Global Forecaster has long warned the UK and the wider West of the dangers of Chinese influence through numerous articles, analyses and campaigns.

In just six months after December 1941, Japan carried out the fastest and largest oceanic expansion in history, seizing territory across the Pacific and Southeast Asia on an…

At the start of WWI and WWII, the Royal Navy faced a chronic shortfall of both front-line warships and Royal Fleet Auxiliary (RFA) support vessels. At the outbreak of both conflicts…

In June’s conflict, Israeli intelligence demonstrated a striking fusion of cyber and kinetic warfare by targeting a secret session of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council in…

Our prime Murrinations focus is on geopolitics, and I only touch markets when moves are significant enough to intersect that realm, think major bond dislocations and…

If you’ve ever wondered what an emergency broadcast would sound like in the event of an imminent nuclear attack, listen to this." Instagram. Now imagine the difference between being…

History has a habit of warning us, often in the smallest of symbols. In ancient Rome, the moment the faces of living rulers began to appear on coins marked not just a monetary shift…

For centuries, China was the archetype of a continental power, with a huge population living securely behind vast land borders…

October 13 was a day for the history books in Israel, a day when an entire nation finally exhaled. Ordinary Israelis had waited 737 agonising days for this moment. Across the country…

On 9 October 2025, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), without warning, introduced new export controls on rare earth elements in a move reminiscent of the US oil embargo on Japan in…

I hope this series of Murrinations has demonstrated how Revolutions in Military Affairs have and continue to catalyse wars and thus have reshaped geopolitical landscapes. Explaining…

Preparing for a potential global conflict, such as World War III, requires a thorough and strategic approach to ensure the safety and well-being of one's family.  A survival prepper…

The decline of Western shipbuilding is more than an industrial contraction — it is a visible symptom of the erosion of maritime hegemony that has underpinned Western power for…

We have long warned about  The Chinese Infiltration of Britain and the West In our  recent Murrination we once more warned that  The UK Must Remove the Reds From The British Bed!, …

Since early 2024, we have been sounding the warning bell that Trump Would End American Democracy. We then went further and outlined MAGA's Migration to The Dictatorship Of Emperor…

The launch of HMS Dreadnought in 1906 was the very personification of a Revolution in Military Affairs (RMA) at sea. By rendering every existing battleship instantly obsolete, it…

The entropy of stupidity can be understood as the natural tendency of foolishness and uncritical thinking to spread, multiply, and disorder human affairs if left unchecked. Like…

In the 1930s, the US Navy was deeply divided over the future of naval warfare, marked by a fierce internal struggle between traditionalists who championed battleships and reformers…

Many ask why Global Forecaster focuses so much on Military technology and the string of revolutions in military affairs that have been flowing from China. The answer to why we are…