Murrination Insights

Many ask why Global Forecaster focuses so much on Military technology and the string of revolutions in military affairs that have been flowing from China. The answer to why we are…

This is a big topic, so we have created a hefty summary of this extensive Murrination study! The subject of Unidentified Aerial Phenomena (UAPs) and Unidentified Submerged Objects (…

Global Forecaster rarely agrees with Trump, but in this case, I do—100% with the substance of his speech at the UN. Yet an important contrast must be made. Trump occupies a lateral…

Much as physics seeks the holy grail of a universal force that explains the universe's four fundamental forces ( Gravitational, Electromagnetic, Strong and Weak Nuclear Force), my…

In an age of atomic weapons, fighting below the nuclear ceiling is an essential part of the Chinese grand strategy. Otherwise, how can it inherit the earth if there are but a pile of…

In the pre-industrial era, most of the key variables of war remained relatively constant. Geography, demographics, and even leadership styles changed only slowly over generations.…

In an age defined by rapid geopolitical shifts, economic volatility, climate disruptions, and the resurgence of great-power competition, the psychological well-being of civilian…

My theory of Polarisation: The Road to War explains that as entropy within society increases, so too does polarisation, which can be measured through rising levels of civil unrest.…

Last week, I attended the DSEI exhibition at Excel London and came away with a sense of hope. Inside that vast building was a vibrant European defence industry, with a proliferation…

Many of our followers ask why Global Forecaster places such a strong emphasis on weapons and war. The answer is simple but profound: history consistently demonstrates that the path…

Europe has just crossed a historic threshold in air and missile defence. The successful July 2025 test of the Aster Block 1NT interceptor in France marks the deployment of a system…

In the framework of the Five Stages of Empire, systems rise and fall according to predictable patterns. During the expansion phase, societies experience a surge of lateral thinking…

The AUKUS pact—initially a trilateral security agreement between the United States, United Kingdom, and Australia—was born in 2021 as a means of enhancing undersea warfare…

Further to our Murrination: UAP-USOs 15: Disclosure, Cover Ups, Congressional Hearings & Key UAP Whistleblowers, September will mark the next major push by both the US Congress…

The Royal Navy currently operates eight River-class Offshore Patrol Vessels (OPVs), divided into two distinct batches:

America's rather linear approach to war—particularly since the 20th century—has been a direct extension of its identity as an industrialised superpower and the most populous power in…

Global Forecaster has long argued that the war in Ukraine was ultimately a consequence of President Biden’s weakness—a rare point of agreement with Donald Trump, albeit for very…

As we have long predicted, the time has come when history will witness a profound moment in the first days of September 2025.…

There is a well-known phrase: “Hard times create strong men, strong men create good times, good times create weak men, and weak men create hard times.”

This modern aphorism…

In Trump 15: America's Fracture Point, we predicted that Trump would purge any opposition with his revenge agenda for a second term including purging civil servants, particularly…

During World War II, the United States and the United Kingdom made notable exceptions to traditional military hierarchies by commissioning civilians with critical skills…

One of the reasons that the predictive tools that I have developed in Global Forecaster are so powerful is that the geopolitical model functions like a three-dimensional hologram,…

Our core product, Murrinations Gold, has evolved far beyond its original scope. As global instability accelerates, it has become my most personal and…

Over the past two weeks, we have witnessed yet another Trump–Putin “peace bromance” in which Trump has once more been humiliated while Putin has strengthened his position. Every such…

Like Britain in past hegemonic wars, America must now prepare to wage conflict not just with weapons, but with borrowing power. Key to this will be a shift away from unsustainably…

China’s massive and rapid build-up of long-range nuclear missiles and warheads—housed in deep mountain redoubts—is designed to achieve strategic parity, or even superiority, over…

History does not repeat itself exactly, but its patterns are unmistakable. In 1938, Neville Chamberlain returned from Munich proclaiming “peace for our time…

To our growing concern, Global Forecaster’s relentless warnings over the past decade about the UK’s lack of defence investment are now bearing disastrous consequences across all…

Much to many Americans' surprise, the British Empire was the largest and most globally integrated empire in human history. A  metric not recognised by Ray Dalio's empire…

Millions voted for Brexit with hope—hope for sovereignty, hope for immigration control, and hope for renewal. A Britain free to adapt and thrive on its own terms in an entropic world…

In the late 19th and early 20th centuries, the United States underwent a remarkable transformation from an inward-looking continental republic into a global empire. This seismic…

In our Predictions for 2025, we argued that global conflict would likely escalate, with a high probability of a fully-fledged World War III. We are now seeing increasing signs of…

During World War II, the most advanced submarines could dive to just under 800 feet. Today, that depth merely marks the beginning of a new frontier in warfare—one that…

China’s vast fishing fleet is more than a commercial enterprise—it is a key pillar of Beijing’s strategy for global influence and maritime dominance. As the world’s largest fishing…

The Conservatives left the UK in a weakened state after 14 years in power, marked by internal divisions, inconsistent leadership, and an inability to tackle long-term structural…

The experiences of Britain, Germany, Japan, and Ukraine under heavy aerial bombardment offer critical insights into how civilian populations adapt—or collapse—under extreme pressure…

The rise of anti-semitism has deeply concerned Global Forecaster for some time as a rider of the apocalypse’s past coming into view today. Recent events have intensified that concern…

Britain once stood as the world’s preeminent sea power, a nation whose global influence was inextricably tied to the strength and reach of its Royal Navy. At its zenith, British…

This Murrination follows   WW3 62: The Nuclear Dimension IV - Who Survives? Intention and Preparation go hand in hand to enhance survivability, national resilience, and strengthen…

Wars are among the most diabolical activities humanity engages in collectively—none more so than those rooted in deep-seated, generational grievances and ignited by acts of…

China’s influence in Southeast Asia has now surpassed that of the United States, marking a significant shift in the region’s strategic balance. Once a contested space between…

We have studied World War II to understand how populations behave under sustained bombardment and can conclude that as long as societal structures remain functional and defensive…

We have long maintained that Ukraine is not only capable of winning its war against Russia but that victory is achievable with sustained and strategic support from its NATO allies.…

In 1938, with the threat of war looming over Europe, the UK government under Neville Chamberlain implemented strategic domestic and foreign policies to strengthen national resilience…

Debt-to-GDP ratios are one of the most commonly cited metrics for assessing a nation's fiscal health, often used to compare levels…

Readers of Murrinations will be aware that we identified the late-November to December 2024 period—immediately following the U.S. election and during the final days of Joe Biden’s…

Global Forecaster has long recognised Britain’s failure to extract and offer asylum to key Afghan soldiers who fought alongside our forces—a national shame that demands urgent and…

The Jeffrey Epstein case has long been surrounded by speculation and controversy, particularly regarding the nature and scope of his global network. One of the most persistent and…

Early in the Ukraine war, we predicted that drone warfare over the battlefield would evolve much like airpower over the trenches in World War I—starting with observation, then attack…

In classic science fiction films, humanity’s downfall often came at the hands of towering robots rampaging through cities—larger-…

The myth of Britain’s enthusiastic embrace of the ECHR is deeply rooted, but Lord Lilley’s report dismantles it with historical evidence. Rather than a proud British legacy,…

We have all seen the visceral scenes in Saving Private Ryan of the American Rangers making their beach assault in the first wave at 06:30 hours in one of Hollywood's most incredible…

In an era defined by rapid and often unpredictable change, both natural and human-made entropic forces continually challenge the stability of our systems, whether they be political,…

Many have written off the main battle tank, citing the thousands destroyed by cheap, ubiquitous drones. But the majority of those losses involved outdated, Soviet-era models, often…

The recent success of the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) in both defence and offence against Iran showcased the integrated strength of high-density missile defence and the…

Although the first bombs fell on Tokyo during the symbolic Doolittle Raid in April 1942, Japan remained largely shielded from a sustained American bombing campaign due to the vast…

Global bond markets are under increasing pressure, with mounting evidence suggesting significant declines ahead. While Japan’s bond market has drawn scrutiny, it is no more unstable…

In a world where the hotspots in Ukraine and Iran have escalated into peer-to-peer wars centred on the existential survival of both sides, it is timely to outline the rapidly…

In examining the assault on truth in Western democracies, it becomes evident that high-entropy environments—defined by widespread fear, social fragmentation, and uncertainty—create…

When war returned to Europe in 1939, Britain dusted off its war plans from 1918 and began rebuilding its force structure to implement a similar—if not expanded—strategy. However,…

Trump’s pursuit of today's ceasefire and what he would like to call peace has been driven more by his visceral need for a big win—and all the credit—than by strategic calculation.…

However, the UK population fared badly, and the Germans suffered 15 times worse. During World War II, the Allied forces—primarily the Royal Air Force (RAF) and the United States Army…

This Murrination is an extended study as the world stands on the cusp on the next phase of WWIII. Our prediction that Trump would Be The Appeaser who would catalyse…

Despite nearly a year of sustained conflict and international condemnation, the West has yet to force Russian President Vladimir Putin to reconsider his core assumptions about how…

Today, we are witnessing two fully fledged regional wars erupting simultaneously—one in Europe over Ukraine, and the other in the Middle East involving Israel. Both conflicts share a…

Although World War I was shorter in duration than the protracted conflicts of 1793 to 1815, it marked a dramatic escalation in the scale and intensity of modern warfare. It was the…

History teaches us that the truth is often the first casualty of authoritarianism. As empires decline, the dissonance between reality and propaganda intensifies.

In high-…

Just days after the 80th anniversary of VE Day, it is time we fully appreciate the sacrifices our forebears endured—and the hard lessons they were forced to learn. We in Europe now…

I realise this series of Murrinations will not be easy to read, but the time has come to shed any remaining illusions that global peace will endure. The danger is very real, and we…

As tensions rise across Eastern Europe and the broader global security landscape, the unthinkable is once again becoming plausible: the…

Followers of Global Forecaster will recall that we have long argued COVID-19, originating from Wuhan, was not only lab-engineered but likely released intentionally. We have…

Upon returning to power in 2024, Trump advanced a so-called peace agenda characterised by a dangerous mix of self-interest, transactional pragmatism and strategic disengagement.…