Immigration has shaped the rise and fall of nations for centuries, yet today’s debate is often reduced to simplistic binaries: pro-immigration vs. anti-immigration. This framing…
Global Forecaster
Understanding past cycles to predict future geopolitical and market events
“David is one of the best and most innovative geo-strategic thinkers I know. His understanding of past and current wars, and the weapons and strategies used to shape their outcomes, is profound. This has enabled him to make a series of remarkably prescient predictions about the new age of war, that unfortunately are coming true in front of our eyes. Our political and military leaders would greatly benefit from drawing on his knowledge and insight to help them navigate through these perilous times.”
Field Marshal Lord Richards of Herstmonceux, General Richards GCB, CBE, DSO, DL formerly The Chief of the Defence Staff, the professional head of the British Armed Forces.
Murrination Insights
Geopolitical Forecasts
Murrinations Insights will help you future-proof your world with investment-grade analysis, predictions and strategies, to help you anticipate future events. Based on a global model that integrates significant geopolitical, military, economic, financial market and environmental developments.
Posted by David Murrin on Thu, 15/01/2026 - 08:00
Last Update: Thu, 29/01/2026 - 14:27
Introduction
In the decades before 1914, Imperial Germany increasingly viewed itself as the natural hegemonic successor to the British Empire—an ascendant continental titan whose demographic…
Posted by David Murrin on Thu, 15/01/2026 - 08:00
Last Update: Sun, 22/02/2026 - 12:31
Introduction
Across Europe today, many remain complacent, believing that the war in Ukraine is distant, frozen along static front lines and unlikely to affect them directly. Some are so blind to…
Posted by David Murrin on Wed, 14/01/2026 - 08:00
Last Update: Fri, 03/04/2026 - 18:17
Introduction
The ancient Greek concept of amartia—the fatal flaw of overreaching pride that blinds leaders to reality—has today found a modern host in the far right currents of MAGA in the United…
Posted by David Murrin on Mon, 12/01/2026 - 08:00
Last Update: Sun, 29/03/2026 - 17:38
Introduction
In my Five Stages of Empire model, demographics are the primary engine of self-organisation within human social systems, driving the expansionary energy that enables civilisations to…
Posted by David Murrin on Fri, 09/01/2026 - 08:00
Last Update: Fri, 09/01/2026 - 10:50
Introduction:
Europe and the Western world are living through an extraordinary form of strategic blindness—what Global Forecaster has long defined as extinction dissonance; the collective…
Posted by David Murrin on Tue, 06/01/2026 - 08:00
Last Update: Tue, 06/01/2026 - 10:22
Introduction
The Founding Fathers created the United States with one overriding fear, the rise of a demagogue who could bend a republic to his will. Their experience with monarchy, factionalism…
Posted by David Murrin on Sun, 04/01/2026 - 17:00
Last Update: Mon, 16/02/2026 - 19:27
Introduction
Trump’s “Snatch and Replace” operation in Venezuela, coupled with the unfolding regime change campaign in Iran, has marked a significant geopolitical shift. In our assessment, these…
Posted by David Murrin on Sat, 03/01/2026 - 10:55
Last Update: Tue, 24/02/2026 - 12:08
Introduction
We previously argued in an earlier Murrination that the October 7th attacks were triggered, in part, by a surge in inflation within Iran and rising domestic unrest. These internal…
Posted by David Murrin on Wed, 31/12/2025 - 08:00
Last Update: Fri, 13/02/2026 - 17:14
Introduction
Putin launched the invasion of Ukraine, believing it would restore Russia’s stature as a great power. Instead, it has accelerated a geopolitical reversal unprecedented in modern…
Posted by David Murrin on Mon, 29/12/2025 - 16:30
Last Update: Fri, 03/04/2026 - 13:19
Introduction
China “expects to be able to fight and win a war over Taiwan” by the end of 2027, according to a draft Pentagon report. The assessment states that Beijing is rapidly refining its…
Posted by David Murrin on Thu, 25/12/2025 - 08:00
Introduction
I was a young boy when I first picked up Isaac Asimov’s Foundation. Like many boys of my generation, I was drawn to the allure of science fiction—the vastness of space, the grandeur…
Posted by David Murrin on Tue, 23/12/2025 - 08:00
Last Update: Thu, 22/01/2026 - 16:51
Introduction
The strategic breakouts of Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan during the Second World War were born from acute strategic compression—tightening economic, political, and…
Posted by David Murrin on Thu, 18/12/2025 - 08:00
Last Update: Thu, 29/01/2026 - 17:31
Introduction
As weapons systems became increasingly complex with industrialisation—and especially during the technological explosions of the First and Second World Wars—specific breakthrough…
Posted by David Murrin on Wed, 17/12/2025 - 08:00
Last Update: Wed, 18/02/2026 - 11:15
Introduction
The Royal Navy is at its lowest operational ebb at the very moment Britain faces a resurgent and increasingly aggressive Russian navy. To counter this threat, the Royal Navy requires…
Posted by David Murrin on Tue, 16/12/2025 - 08:00
Last Update: Mon, 02/02/2026 - 07:22
Introduction
The unveiling of Washington’s new security doctrine marks a decisive turning point in transatlantic relations — and not for the better as the covert Trump policy becomes overt. What…
Posted by David Murrin on Mon, 15/12/2025 - 08:00
Last Update: Mon, 23/03/2026 - 17:40
Introduction
Global Forecaster, in its Murrination analysis, typically does not focus on market dynamics; that responsibility lies with our inside out hedge fund, Global Trader: Your External CIO…
Posted by David Murrin on Sat, 13/12/2025 - 08:00
Last Update: Thu, 22/01/2026 - 16:49
Introduction
In our Murrination series on Strategic Compression, we explain why this is the most critical strategic construct to understand in geopolitics today. Strategic Compression is the…
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