Global Forecaster

Understanding past cycles to predict future geopolitical and market events

Murrination Insights

Geopolitical Forecasts

Murrinations Insights will help you future-proof your world with investment-grade analysis, predictions and strategies, to help you anticipate future events. Based on a global model that integrates significant geopolitical, military, economic, financial market and environmental developments.

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Last Update: Sun, 17/05/2026 - 08:17
Introduction

On the Ukrainian front lines, First-Person View (FPV) drones have transformed areas up to 15-20 miles behind the front into lethal kill zones, marking a decisive shift in the nature…

Last Update: Tue, 08/07/2025 - 15:57
Introduction

Hegemonic wars are vast, multi-year struggles for global dominance which occur roughly every 112 years. These conflicts demand not only formidable military capability but also…

Last Update: Tue, 08/07/2025 - 15:58
Introduction

We warned in our Murrinations Human Malevolence 3; Will Trump End American Democracy? and The End Of the American Republic As We Know It that Trump would seek to consolidate all the …

Last Update: Mon, 16/02/2026 - 19:35
Introduction

China may be slowing economically, but strategically, it remains the most formidable rival the United States has ever faced. This moment demands clarity, a radically new containment…

Last Update: Mon, 22/09/2025 - 07:59
Introduction

On fringe forums and in private chats, MAGA supporters have long floated the idea of the “Dark Enlightenment”—the belief that America doesn't need a traditional politician at the…

Last Update: Mon, 25/08/2025 - 11:40
9.0 - Impact on the UK & U.S.

In examining the single or limited nuclear war scenario, we will start with one such weapon, the Topol (SS25), which has a range of around 7,000 miles, leaving…

Last Update: Tue, 02/09/2025 - 13:02
1.0 - Dissonance & Decline: Hypernormalisation & the Illusion of Western Stability

We have regularly warned about the collective war-blindness in the West and remain surprised at how slow…

Last Update: Tue, 08/07/2025 - 16:00
6.0 - Nuclear Strike Warning

What happens if a nuclear weapon is launched? In both the United States and Russia, early warning systems are designed to detect the thermal signature of a missile…

Last Update: Tue, 08/07/2025 - 16:02
Introduction Image

Across the Western world, both our economies and our collective health are in visible decline. Our societies are becoming more…

Last Update: Tue, 21/04/2026 - 16:13
Introduction Image

The Prime Minister is expected to launch the Strategic Defence Review (SDR) from a UK dockyard tomorrow in an act of symbolism of…

Last Update: Tue, 08/07/2025 - 16:05
4.0 Surviving a First Strike

The strategic nuclear triad is the foundation of a nation's nuclear deterrence strategy, consisting of three distinct delivery systems: land-based intercontinental…

Last Update: Tue, 08/07/2025 - 16:06
Introduction

In the context of total warfare, a "Hail Mary" refers to a last-resort military action—bold, risky, and strategically desperate—undertaken when a nation or force is facing imminent…

Last Update: Tue, 08/07/2025 - 16:07
Introduction

Five years ago, I wrote Red Lightning to warn the Western world about the strategic threat posed by the Chinese PLAN’s development of a vast anti-ship ballistic missile capability—an…

Last Update: Tue, 08/07/2025 - 16:07
Introduction

As of May 25, reports from Moscow suggest that the Russian government was conducting a "Continuity of Government" operation, with key officials being moved to secure locations…

Last Update: Tue, 08/07/2025 - 16:08
The Big Interview

This extensive interview lasted for over 4.5 hours and is not in the public domain. However, Grant has kindly made our conversation available to Murrination Gold Subscribers.…

Last Update: Fri, 26/06/2026 - 16:02
Introduction

In warfare, a "Hail Mary" refers to a last-resort military action—bold, risky, and strategically desperate—undertaken when a nation or force is facing imminent defeat or overwhelming…

Last Update: Sat, 11/04/2026 - 09:25
Introduction

Whilst we are still only a fraction into Trump’s second term, it is already shaping up to be a disaster. As predicted, Donald Trump has emerged as an agent of entropy, accelerating…

Last Update: Sun, 12/07/2026 - 20:15
Introduction

Putin’s “shadow fleet” refers to a covert network of over 100 oil tankers and cargo ships used by Russia to evade Western sanctions and sustain its wartime economy. These vessels…

Last Update: Tue, 22/07/2025 - 12:55
Introduction

Despite his promises to the contrary, we have long predicted that very linear Starmer would seek to reverse Brexit, and that profoundly concerning forecast is now becoming reality.…

Last Update: Tue, 08/07/2025 - 16:13
Introduction

It is the first time in the Navy’s 500-year history that its First Sea Lord has faced a formal misconduct probe. The forced resignation of First Sea Lord Admiral Sir Ben Key,…

Last Update: Tue, 08/07/2025 - 16:13
Introduction

Global Forecaster has been bullish on gold since the $1,650 low in October 2022. Since then, the price has nearly doubled, and we believe its ultimate target is $10,000 by the 2030…

Last Update: Tue, 08/07/2025 - 16:14
Introduction

In our Theory of the Five Stages of Empire, we describe the rise of a system as being driven by a spirit of collective purpose over individual self-interest. While its decline is…

Last Update: Wed, 17/06/2026 - 19:42
Introduction

The age of the battleship came to a close as advancements in military technology extended the effective range of combat far beyond the line-of-sight engagements that once defined…

Last Update: Tue, 05/05/2026 - 20:24
Introduction

In the very week the Western world marked the 80th anniversary of the end of the Second World War, we were starkly reminded of our Failure to honour the Hard Lessons of VE Day. Chief…

Last Update: Sun, 18/01/2026 - 08:59
Introduction

The U.S.–UK trade agreement, known as the U.S.-UK Economic Prosperity Deal (EPD), is undoubtedly a milestone, though not quite in the way Keir Starmer might present it. A closer…

Last Update: Tue, 08/07/2025 - 16:15
Introduction

Trump is almost self-absorbed, and his trade wars have made him the central focus on the world stage, providing endless narcissistic supply to his messianic ego. However, in his self…

Last Update: Wed, 08/07/2026 - 16:23
Introduction

The unfolding conflict between India and Pakistan is a severe manifestation of the increasing entropy within the K-wave cycle heading into 2030. It involves two nations, both in…

Last Update: Tue, 08/07/2025 - 16:16
1.0 Our Unlearned Lesson

On Thursday, the UK and other Allied nations will commemorate the 80th anniversary of VE Day (Victory in Europe Day)—marking the moment, on May 8, 1945, when Nazi Germany…

Last Update: Fri, 08/05/2026 - 23:02
Introduction

One of my core theories applied to this decade's geopolitical dynamic is the pronounced shift to the right in Western politics. However, as we outlined in The Essential Principles of…

Last Update: Tue, 08/07/2025 - 16:18
Introduction

Trump’s ‘Historic’ Meeting with Zelensky at the Pope’s Funeral Marks a Watershed Moment in the Ukraine War. As Trump’s unexpected and symbolically powerful meeting with Zelensky at…

Last Update: Sun, 15/02/2026 - 14:12
Introduction

Trump promised that peace in 24 hours would be easy to negotiate based on his deluded view of the world. Meanwhile, GF predicted that we would only see escalation of the conflict,…

Last Update: Sat, 13/12/2025 - 07:41
Introduction

During  World War II, escort carriers (designated CVEs) became indispensable workhorses that played an outsized role in protecting Allied convoys and in shaping the decisive North…

Last Update: Mon, 19/01/2026 - 17:36
24 Xi Jinping: The Chinese Emperor

Xi Jinping wields incredible power, which should be analysed through the lens of narcissistic personality traits, which influence his leadership style and…

Last Update: Tue, 30/06/2026 - 08:43
Introduction

The air war over Ukraine has become a testing ground for a deadly form of long-range air-to-air sniping. Russian MiG-31s, equipped with Cold War–era R-37M missiles, can launch lethal…

Last Update: Tue, 08/07/2025 - 16:22
Introduction

Following on from Trump 12; The Zelensky Ambush; Peace or the Path to WW3?, Trump’s strategy in Ukraine has taken on the character of coercive expropriation — a superpower muscling a…

Last Update: Thu, 24/04/2025 - 07:23

In our Murrination, Trump The Betrayer we highlighted what Putin has been doing, but the big question remains: how does he control Trump? We suspect that Kompromat played a role at the beginning…

Last Update: Mon, 21/04/2025 - 09:27

The boundaries between fiction and foresight blur intriguingly in the works of David Murrin and the concept of psychohistory, introduced by Isaac Asimov through his character Hari Seldon. Though…

Last Update: Thu, 11/06/2026 - 08:16

Introduction

For over a decade, I have warned that allowing a strategic competitor like China to own critical parts of Britain’s—and the wider West’s—infrastructure was nothing short of…

Last Update: Wed, 16/07/2025 - 08:19
Introduction

Today, as we watch Trump and the MAGA party attempt to strike a bargain with Putin, it would be wise for him and his supporters to revisit the events surrounding the sinking of the…

Last Update: Tue, 08/07/2025 - 16:25

Unlike the nations of the Axis of Autocracy, the West, and especially America, is underpinned by free capital markets. While Trump might have duped a sufficient number of Americans to gain power,…

Last Update: Wed, 30/04/2025 - 16:58

Having examined the  Dark Psychology of  Trump’s Narcissistic character, it is time to look at his nemesis. Putin’s psychological megalomaniac profile is often described in the understatement of…

Last Update: Thu, 15/05/2025 - 13:46

Narcissists with NPD can never be wrong or admit defeat. The more extreme their denial the more energetic their justifications become as they are double down. For a messianic narcissist like Trump…

Last Update: Wed, 14/05/2025 - 10:02

Britain is at a Crossroads and needs to navigate the Entropic rapids ahead and seize its opportunities. Whilst enacting a policy of ever-greater and Strategic Independence. Because the world is in…

Last Update: Sat, 02/05/2026 - 18:00
Introduction

Yesterday, Trump escalated his trade war to a global scale, implementing an economic policy driven by delusion—one that may well be the final nail in the coffin of the American…

Last Update: Sun, 31/08/2025 - 14:24
Introduction

Alfred Thayer Mahan, the father of American naval strategy, derived his thesis written in 1890 on the Influence of Seapower on History (1660-1783) from the lessons from the success…

Last Update: Sun, 28/06/2026 - 09:45
Introduction

In Dark Psychology 2: Narcissism and War Cycles, I explained how dark narcissists have been instrumental in the majority of hegemonic wars. This brings us to today as I argue that…

Last Update: Wed, 27/08/2025 - 09:42
Introduction

In Breaking the Code of History, written in 2002 and published in 2009, I explained the Five Stages of Empire model, specifically explained that America had entered the fifth stage…

Last Update: Fri, 17/04/2026 - 07:42

In Dark Psychology 1: Understanding Narcissism, we explored the origins and various manifestations of narcissism, narcissists' relentless need for Narcissistic Supply, and the consequences when…

Last Update: Tue, 25/03/2025 - 10:45

In this Murrination series, I will explore dark psychology, with a particular focus on narcissism and its various manifestations. At their core, narcissists are energy vampires, extracting energy…

Last Update: Sun, 29/06/2025 - 08:01

In our Murrination The Battle for Ukraine 73; Large Russian Glide Bombs Are Breaking The Stalemate, written a year ago on 14th March 2024, we noted how these stand-off weapons had brought the…

Last Update: Thu, 20/11/2025 - 16:11

 

Introduction

The journey to US Government UAP disclosure has come further in the past four years than it has over the past eighty years. During the course of our extensive Murrinatsion…

Trump and MAGA have complained about how much support America has given Ukraine, using the many billions of aid to foment resentment and encourage the isolationist sentiments of the American…

Last Update: Tue, 07/07/2026 - 17:08
Introduction

This Murrination follows on from our critical series Red Peril 41. American War Blindness; Part 8 Vulnerability Exposed.

WW II  ushered in a new age of amphibious warfare…

Last Update: Sat, 15/11/2025 - 16:11
Introduction

After three years of savage war with over 1.5 million casualties, the only way that there will be peace in Ukraine is when Putin is defeated by force. With or without American…

Last Update: Tue, 18/03/2025 - 09:32

John ‘Paddy’ Hemingway, the last surviving Battle of Britain pilot, passed away at the age of 105, marking the end of an era of extraordinary courage and sacrifice. His story is not just one of…

Last Update: Thu, 11/06/2026 - 09:05
Introduction

Since 1956 and the UK's post-Suez decision to align with the US, the process of force integration has seen the UK become increasingly entwined with US forces on every level. This…

Last Update: Thu, 15/01/2026 - 22:06

Looking to the future, my aspiration and most profound hope is that through the development of a new science of the study of human cycles—one dedicated to studying humanity’s past and present…

France, unlike some other NATO allies, is not heavily dependent on the U.S. military. While cooperation and interoperability with the U.S. play a role in certain NATO tactical operational areas,…

Last Update: Mon, 05/05/2025 - 17:44

After some two decades of building pressure, when first China and then Russia commenced their plans to assault the West, the tectonic plates of geopolitics released their energy in a shift of…

Last Update: Sun, 08/03/2026 - 09:12
Introduction

As we approach the third anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, it is essential to recognise a stark reality: on that very dark day, World War III began.…

Last Update: Thu, 20/11/2025 - 16:21
Preamble

UFOs, UAPs, and the Age of Disclosure: A New Perspective For many, UFOs, now officially termed UAPs (Unidentified Aerial Phenomena), have long been dismissed as fringe or speculative.…

Last Update: Mon, 04/05/2026 - 09:36
Introduction

Trump is now fulfilling one of my earliest geopolitical predictions, made in 2002 using the Five Stages of Empire framework—that America entered a state of decline after 9/11. Twenty…

Last Update: Thu, 09/07/2026 - 15:24
Introduction

There is a great irony in America demanding that Europe do more: lest we forget that it was an American failure of deterrence that encouraged Putin to invade both in 2014 on Obama’s…

Last Update: Tue, 08/07/2025 - 16:35
Introduction

The disastrous meeting between Trump and Zelensky at the 'Fight House' was a watershed moment, not just for the trajectory of the Russia-Ukraine war but for the broader clash between…

Last Update: Fri, 17/04/2026 - 08:25
Introduction

Throughout our UAP Murrination series, we have tried to give you a complete download to enable you to get up to speed on this fascinating and vital topic. To that end, the time has…

Last Update: Sun, 01/06/2025 - 05:53

Over the past three years since the invasion of Ukraine, successive UK governments led by Johnson, Sunak, and especially Starmer have all resisted the urgent need to make defence spending the…

Last Update: Tue, 05/05/2026 - 09:01

Britain is dependent on the sea for its economic well-being and defence. For centuries, its great Sea power status attested to that reality. However, over the past decades, that reality has been…

Last Update: Tue, 25/02/2025 - 12:28

Having observed Trump during his election campaign and the first month of his presidency, it is clear that he is using a new political strategy to engage with the American people, its institutions…

Last Update: Mon, 03/03/2025 - 14:45

In previous Murrinations we have outlined the great Battle Between Democracy and Autocracy unfolding as the doom of our time. That outline supposed that America and its Western allies would stand…

Last Update: Thu, 20/11/2025 - 16:20

 

Preamble

UFOs, UAPs, and the Age of Disclosure: A New Perspective For many, UFOs, now officially termed UAPs (Unidentified Aerial Phenomena), have long been dismissed as fringe or…

Last Update: Sun, 03/05/2026 - 10:02
Introduction

We have recently witnessed the Munich 1938 moment of our time in a very surreal way with the commencement of Trump's negotiations with Russia. These have been accompanied by a…

Last Update: Fri, 22/08/2025 - 06:25
Introduction

Ahead of crunch talks in Paris on Monday in an emergency summit hosted by Emmanuel Macron, the French President, Prime Minister Starmer said he would not take the decision of putting…