Murrinations

We, as individuals and nations learn the most from our mistakes. Especially, from the painful ones! So, the first step for the Conservatives is to take a deep breath and digest the lessons from the election, before choosing the path forward (see yesterday's Murrination). In that regard, the Conservatives are correct in keeping May as the PM and falling in behind her for a short time at least.

After such a calamitous election result, it is time to take stock and analyse the lessons; lessons that should provide a guide as to how Britain can navigate its path through what could be a challenging but ultimately, very positive journey. However, before we do that, it is time to review our Breaking the Code of History (BTCH) predictions for UK politics going into the polls and most importantly, which key lessons can be learned from our failed expectations:

We previously noted that as part of America’s force build up in preparation for a pre-emptive strike against North Korea, the Americans would concentrate at least three carrier groups in the area. With the USS Carl Vinson already in the region and the USS Ronald Reagan stationed in Yokosuka, Japan, the last carrier group the USS Nimitz is undergoing a 'final pre-deployment assessment' off Oregon.

The closure of the difference between the polls of the Conservatives and Labour has caused great consternation to those who thought it would be a landslide victory. However, the reason is very simple. May has tried to follow the path of Blair and Cameron in occupying the centre ground when the vast majority of the electorate requires a move to the right with the associated wealth creation policies.

Using the model from ‘Breaking the Code of History’, we have identified that Britain has started a new cycle. The UK ‘bottomed out’ in 1970, completed its regionalisation stage in 2016 with its Brexit referendum, and is now in a phase of expansion once more. As such, we should expect its foreign and trade policies to encourage Britain to seek new partners across the globe.

The Democratic Alliance, on the other hand, is a very different proposition for SA’s future. It is a party of wealth creation, which is what the nation most requires, with a proven track record of effective governance. Now, it has a black rather than white leader which gives them general appeal. There has been, and will continue to be, a massive shift in sentiment as the population no longer chooses a party for its past associations like the ANC, but for its ability to govern and give its children a bright economic future.

Historically, once a regional civil war has been won, it is rare that it is refought, although the feeling that it might happen again resounds through the society for generations. This, coupled with the simple fact that the EFF (Economic Freedom Fighters) is not a party of wealth distribution, will in all probability mean that they will not be the next party to lead SA after the ANC. Rather, I think of them as a catalyst that acts to weaken the ANC, hopefully as they claim within the rule of law.

The phase of dictatorship ended after Mandela’s death and the pendulum swung back to a form of leadership that was at the other side of the swing. In this case, the old tribal values of hierarchical power, self-aggrandisement and corruption. This process began during Thabo Mbeki’s regime and is now prolific with Jacob Zuma, to the point where it has impaired the growth of the nation in every way possible. The swing in this case was also away from Mandela’s belief that leadership should serve the people towards one where leadership serves itself.

I have been asked with increasing frequency regarding my outlook for SA, set against what feels to be a wave of negative sentiment for the country’s future. Coincidently, I had the privilege of giving a speech in Cape Town on March 31st, 2017. It was the day after Zuma had enacted his ‘night of the long knives’ on his Cabinet. The mood amongst the ‘white tribe’ was very dark indeed. I would go so far as to say the darkest collective sentiment I have ever witnessed. What interested me was that this darkness was not really a reflection of current events.

Prime Minister May’s call for an election should not have taken anyone by surprise. The surprise was that she had not announced it sooner. The Conservatives were not elected with May as their leader and she did not want to make the same mistake as Gordon Brown who was never endorsed by the people and served out an ignominious short term as PM. Following such a divisive referendum, May and the Conservatives need a resounding mandate to push through the Brexit negotiations using the risk of a no-deal outcome as the ultimate bargaining chip.