Global Forecaster

Understanding past cycles to predict future geopolitical and market events

Murrination Insights

Geopolitical Forecasts

Murrinations Insights will help you future-proof your world with investment-grade analysis, predictions and strategies, to help you anticipate future events. Based on a global model that integrates significant geopolitical, military, economic, financial market and environmental developments.

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Last Update: Thu, 17/10/2024 - 13:37

Following on from The Next US President Part 1; Biden's End we predict that Harris will be the next US president. In our Murrination predictions for 2024 – The Year To Stay Under Cover | David…

Last Update: Thu, 02/07/2026 - 17:44
Introduction

Our persistent warnings over the past four years about a Chinese super Pearl Harbour - based on mass saturation attacks - are now reaching the mainstream. These warnings have been…

Last Update: Sat, 18/10/2025 - 06:46
Introduction

The clearest manifestation of China's expansive military intentions can be seen in the growth of its navy, which we argue is integral to the execution of China's Grand Plan. This…

Last Update: Fri, 08/05/2026 - 07:41
Introduction

For China's envisaged war plan against America to work, it needs to build up the ability to resource its people and wartime industrial economy based on a sphere of influence that…

Last Update: Mon, 04/05/2026 - 13:51
Introduction

The concept of "total war", as articulated by Carl von Clausewitz in his seminal work On War, refers to a form of warfare that mobilises all available resources of a nation—economic…

Last Update: Tue, 28/04/2026 - 22:25

Introduction

Having observed Chinese expansion closely for two decades, I believe that Xi and his upper echelons have been following a long-term strategy to challenge and destroy American…

Last Update: Thu, 23/10/2025 - 06:14
Introduction

In early January 2024, we made this prediction in Red Peril 30; Ten Reasons Why Xi Will Go To War In 2024. Eight months later, in this new Murrination, we will re-examine why I…

Last Update: Wed, 10/09/2025 - 14:13

War blind is a new term I have coined for those in the Western world who refuse to see the extreme danger we face from all-out WW3 with the Axis of Autocracy. The degree of their war blindness is…

Last Update: Thu, 15/08/2024 - 10:37

The government rightly remains on ‘high alert’ for the risk of more violence across the country. But does Starmer really understand what is unfolding on his watch? He was certainly quick to blame…

Last Update: Thu, 05/02/2026 - 10:13
Introduction

As CIO of Emergent in 2001, I identified the beginning of a new 26-year K-wave cycle that would breathe new life into the moribund commodities sector. That observation defined our…

Last Update: Mon, 23/09/2024 - 15:09

One of the clear market dynamics that we use in our market pattern recognition system is the rule of alternation. Put simply, it means that after any market has seen an impulsive move followed by…

Last Update: Wed, 23/10/2024 - 07:09

We predict that Starmer's government will be a wartime government, meaning that all other policy decisions will be eclipsed by those that Labour takes in the defence of the nation during this…

Last Update: Mon, 04/05/2026 - 14:02
Introduction

Before Brexit, the UK was part of the EU and adhered to the principle of freedom of movement, allowing EU citizens to live and work in the UK without restrictions. Post-Brexit, the…

Last Update: Sun, 06/07/2025 - 10:22

First, let's start with the good news - Sir Keir Starmer has said his government will be one of “service” in his first address to the nation as prime minister. Speaking outside Number 10 Downing…

Last Update: Sun, 16/11/2025 - 08:25
Introduction

There are significant trends that we witnessed during the recent election that will shape our political future. In this Murrination we will look to extrapolate forward:

1.0 'Not…
Last Update: Wed, 30/04/2025 - 12:46

In our Murrination predictions for 2024 – The Year To Stay Under Cover | David Murrin we made the below prediction that neither Trump nor Biden would be the next president of America. The first 50…

Last Update: Sun, 10/05/2026 - 09:07
Introduction

Now that the dust has settled from  The Most Delusional Election In British History, in this series of Murrinations, we begin to predict what Starmer's Britain will look like. But…

Last Update: Thu, 11/07/2024 - 10:57

The new army chief, General Sir Roly Walker, has ambitious plans to strengthen the country’s military by doubling its lethality. Correctly, Gen Walker, a former member of the SAS, believes that “…

Last Update: Mon, 15/12/2025 - 11:40
Introduction

France is undergoing a massive shift to the far right, along with many European nations. Of course, understanding exactly what the far right stands for is at times challenging.…

Last Update: Sat, 22/11/2025 - 12:44
Introduction

We predicted the day that Sunak called his election, that he was the turkey that voted for Christmas. An outcome which has now come to pass, ending a very sordid chapter in British…

Last Update: Sun, 07/07/2024 - 09:05

The rise of the far right parties across the West has been spawned in the crucible of two decades of the failed liberal politics of wealth distribution and decline. They are a direct response to…

Last Update: Tue, 06/08/2024 - 15:22

In Breaking the Code of History, published in 2009, we made many very specific predictions as to the nature of the decline in American military power. The below is directly quoted from the book.…

Last Update: Thu, 12/06/2025 - 09:37

Iran’s strategy to become the foremost Islamic power in the Middle East is based on an endgame of becoming a nuclear power, as we have warned in a series of Murrinations:

Iran's Nuclear…

Last Update: Thu, 27/02/2025 - 13:20

Watching the various party leaders debate on TV and in public has been incredibly depressing. Arguing over how they would govern Britain with various degrees of incompetency, based on their…

Last Update: Fri, 06/02/2026 - 09:52
Introduction

In Breaking the Code of History, published in 2009, we made public the following predictions, which we originally formulated before 2003:

BE PREPARED FOR A WAVE OF CHINESE…
Last Update: Sat, 29/11/2025 - 12:51

 

Preamble

UFOs, UAPs, and the Age of Disclosure: A New Perspective For many, UFOs, now officially termed UAPs (Unidentified Aerial Phenomena), have long been dismissed as fringe or…

Last Update: Thu, 27/02/2025 - 13:20

We are almost halfway through 2024, and note that our predictions made in January – A Rough Year Ahead have been unfolding as we expected. The great geopolitical hegemonic clash is being driven by…

Last Update: Thu, 03/10/2024 - 07:18

This update on the war in Ukraine follows on from The Battle for Ukraine 73; Large Russian Glide Bombs Are Breaking The Stalemate.

 

1.0 Western democracies - the slumbering giants…

Last Update: Thu, 27/02/2025 - 13:19

The statistics of D-Day, codenamed 'Operation Overlord', are staggering. Eighty years ago, an armada of some 5,000 warships arrived at five beaches, ready to force their way back into Europe. On…

Last Update: Fri, 28/06/2024 - 13:23

The great irony of this election is that Sunak, who has presided over the irresponsible final leg of the implosion of the UK’s defence capabilities from the 2019 election, now seeks to make…

Last Update: Sun, 14/07/2024 - 13:55

Until Farage arrived on the scene, Britain was about to conduct an election between two main linear parties, providing a disastrous and uniquely dire choice such that we have not faced for many a…

Last Update: Thu, 20/06/2024 - 10:31

In our Murrination Britain’s Next Political Evolution 4: The Swing Back to the Right we explained how global entropic forces, associated with the K wave, would bring a trend for Western…

Last Update: Mon, 27/01/2025 - 09:28

Under the construct of the Five Stages of Empire model, Brexit was a regional civil war whose social purpose was to lateralise Britain and prepare it for a phase of expansion. Whilst Brexit might…

Last Update: Sun, 14/07/2024 - 12:21

To achieve his goal of becoming an elected prime minister, Sunak is trying to make this election as presidential as possible, i.e. Sunak vs Starmer rather than Tory vs Labour. Although Starmer is…

Last Update: Sun, 17/11/2024 - 10:24

On 4 July, Britain will go to the polls in the unenviable position of trying to choose the least bad choice of party to lead for the next five years. This situation could well be repeated in…

Last Update: Fri, 26/07/2024 - 16:53

The Bank of England and Rishi Sunak have made much of the recent fall in inflation, with Andrew Bailey promising a rate cut and Sunak hoping that this will change his election fortunes. Inflation…

Last Update: Mon, 06/07/2026 - 16:35
Introduction

Over the past two decades, we have warned that China would inevitably go to war with America before the 2030 K-wave cycle peak. Since our prediction, there have been many dark…

Last Update: Fri, 20/03/2026 - 18:51
Introduction

Camouflage came about in modern industrial wars due to the increasingly destructive power of weapons so great that not being seen became a vital element of survival on the…

Last Update: Fri, 26/07/2024 - 12:13

Sun Tzu's The Art of War is a timeless text, revered not only for its insights into military strategy but also for its applicability to various aspects of leadership and policy.

In Red…

Last Update: Fri, 26/07/2024 - 17:03

I have argued that wars are part of humanity's evolutionary process as they force lateralisation upon the combatants. As such, entropic environments, and especially wars, demand that heroic,…

Last Update: Thu, 27/02/2025 - 13:19

The UK government has wilfully allowed our national defences, which are critical in the defence of the realm, to decay to a point where we are now – in the age of mass missile attacks – all but…

Last Update: Thu, 27/02/2025 - 13:19

Our children carry our love with them and are the future of our genes. As such, they are the most precious of all our endeavours. Yet we of the current older Western generations, just like our…

Last Update: Fri, 02/01/2026 - 11:09
Introduction

UFOs, UAPs, and the Age of Disclosure: A New Perspective . For many, UFOs, now officially termed UAPs (Unidentified Aerial Phenomena), have long been dismissed as fringe or…

Last Update: Thu, 08/01/2026 - 08:14
Introduction

Despite the claim that Western-supplied F-16 fighter jets due to arrive in Ukraine in July are “no longer relevant”, according to one senior Ukrainian military official speaking to…

Last Update: Sun, 20/07/2025 - 09:18
Sumary

The Murrination contends that Western leaders, particularly Biden and Sunak, have dangerously misjudged global threats by pursuing appeasement over deterrence, echoing Chamberlain’s pre-…

Last Update: Sun, 06/07/2025 - 11:35

There is an old phrase: "There is nothing new under the sun". It is common knowledge that in America today, there is a major drug epidemic. However, very few fully appreciate the role of China in…

Last Update: Wed, 29/10/2025 - 06:31
Introduction

Global Forecaster does not give much credence to superstition. That is, until it intersects with critical points in real geopolitics, such as Iran's war against Israel, which is on…

Last Update: Sat, 27/07/2024 - 16:21

Today in Ukraine and Israel: "Open war is upon you whether you would risk it or not"

As we outlined in Breaking the Code of History, the rise and fall of civilisations is cyclical. Indeed…

Last Update: Sat, 27/07/2024 - 16:39

In our recent Murrination The Breathtaking Magnitude of China's Global Ambitions, we published the secret speech given by Defence Minister Chi Haotian to high-level Communist Party cadres sometime…

Last Update: Mon, 05/08/2024 - 15:50

Following the heinous Hamas attack on Israel on 7 October, two days later we warned that it would inevitably escalate into a full-blown Middle Eastern conflict (see Iran's war Against Israel and…

Last Update: Thu, 27/02/2025 - 12:45

Whilst the majority of Western leaders are in denial and are relying on a strategy of hoping that the pattern of increased and bigger wars will not happen, we have been warning that the move of…

Last Update: Sun, 08/03/2026 - 09:54
Introduction

Today, across the democratic world, our future freedom is under greater threat than at any time since WW2. For over two decades, I have been warning that the entropy of the K-wave (…

Last Update: Wed, 08/01/2025 - 11:31

On first glance, there is no comparison between the apparent uniqueness of Western empires and the perceived continuity of Chinese dynasties across 4,200 years. However, when comparing China with…

Last Update: Mon, 26/05/2025 - 10:53

We are all used to the idea of cyber espionage to spy on enemies and steal secrets, and even low-level offensive operations that interfere with infrastructure and computer networks and servers.…

Last Update: Mon, 16/02/2026 - 10:48
Introduction

For almost a decade, Global Forecaster has been closely following the incidences of “Havana Syndrome”, long since attributing it to either the Russians or the CCP. To confirm that…

Last Update: Sat, 27/07/2024 - 16:30

Global Forecaster combines our proprietary Geopolitical and Market models (that cover some 80 markets) into coherent predictions of future events and market trends. Our alpha-generating track…

Last Update: Sun, 28/07/2024 - 11:58

The history of China is a fascinating tapestry of dynastic change, innovation, and conquest, spanning four millennia. This overview will take you through the most significant empires and dynasties…

Last Update: Tue, 20/08/2024 - 14:54

In our last Murrination Red Peril 34; The Breathtaking Magnitude of China's Global Ambitions, we exposed the CCP's dangerous sense of cultural superiority that is very similar to that expressed by…

Last Update: Tue, 20/08/2024 - 14:59

The big question of our time is: ''How big are China's hegemonic ambitions?'' The answer, which is hiding in plain sight, is terrifying. The very human process of projection has blinded most of us…

Last Update: Sat, 29/03/2025 - 09:54

Every second, roughly two million bits of sensory data attempt to enter your mind. However, your brain can process only about 40,000 bits per second. This means your mind is constantly filtering,…

Last Update: Wed, 14/08/2024 - 16:23

In the era of applied quantum mechanics and the real-life world of quantum engineering, we stand on the cusp of the next great leap in mankind's technological evolution. New quantum computers are…

Last Update: Thu, 27/02/2025 - 12:42

Donald Trump's unspoken relationship with Vladimir Putin has been polarising, both within the United States and internationally. Critics argue that Trump's approach to Putin has been overly…

Last Update: Sat, 08/02/2025 - 08:14

As we outlined in The Situation Is Now Desperate and The Darkest Days As NATO Awakes From Its Slumber, Russia now has control of the battlefield initiative and Ukraine is very much on the back…

Last Update: Fri, 10/04/2026 - 19:22
Introduction

In the short term, the race to roll out these new quantum technologies is execrably linked to the unfolding arms race between democracy and autocracy, as discussed in The Quantum…

Last Update: Mon, 05/01/2026 - 09:41
Introduction

Quantum engineering is an interdisciplinary field that applies the principles of quantum mechanics to the design, development, and deployment of advanced technologies. This cutting-…

Last Update: Thu, 27/02/2025 - 12:42

2.1 - Fascism in Britain pre-WW2

The pre-war 30s saw the rise of two opposing ideologies, Communism and Fascism. Communism became covert when the war started and reared its ugly head in…

Last Update: Tue, 14/04/2026 - 09:58
Introduction

The origins of quantum theory trace back to the early 20th century, marking a monumental shift in how scientists understand the nature of matter and energy. It began with Max Planck'…

Last Update: Thu, 27/02/2025 - 12:41

Before 1914, British attitudes towards Germany were shaped by a complex interplay of cultural, royal, intellectual, and political connections, alongside emerging rivalries. The prelude to WW1…

Last Update: Thu, 27/02/2025 - 12:41

The last significant hegemonic war cycle, spanning 112 years, was marked by Germany's challenge against Great Britain, beginning in 1914 and entering its second act in 1939. Before the escalation…

Last Update: Wed, 08/07/2026 - 16:04
Intyroduction

Spying is as old as mankind. Only recently, it was revealed that in 1749, a Spanish spy known under the pseudonym Mr Josue penetrated British society to steal shipbuilding…

Last Update: Thu, 19/09/2024 - 12:54

We have recently entered the third year of the war in Ukraine. To mark this diabolical milestone, we have created an extended analysis, looking to the year ahead in this titanic war. We continue…

Last Update: Mon, 09/09/2024 - 08:16

To the observant, it appears that the West has been duped and manipulated by its autocratic enemies in ways unimaginable during the Cold War. A terrifying string of strategic manipulations has…