GLOBAL FORECASTER -THE NIGHTMARE ‘DON’T LOOK UP’ YEAR
We predicted from the outset that 2022 would be a tumultuous year as the K wave crisis took hold, impacting through wars, inflation, energy and food security challenges, with growing political unrest. All of which have come to pass and never have our geopolitical predictive models been more in tune with the unfolding reality and entropic shocks.-Subscribe
GLOBAL ; TRADER -TOP 20 PERFORMING MARKETS OVER PAST 36 MONTHS
Q3 continued to produce exceptional overall alpha extraction, with the highest returns coming from the bond markets (T Notes and Bunds) which as a result are now in the top 4. To achieve that we were initially long and then reversed our position to being short at the top of the correction, we then ran our maximum size short positions into the lows at the end of the quarter. In equities we maintained our maximum short positions through the quarter's squeeze and into the lows at quarter end. Similarly we maintained our shorts across the crypto sector and in EM equities and EM currencies, producing solid results across these sectors.
In the commodity sector we initially traded from the short side as wave 2 unfolded, driven by demand contraction, which saw a fall in prices (oil from $130 to $74). Then at the end of the quarter we reversed into long positions. With respect to the dollar we maintained the view that it was near the peak of an extreme rally linked to interest rates differentials and repatriation of capital (to meet bond and equity margin calls), making this our worst performing sector.
© David Murrin 2025. All images courtesy of Getty Images. |