Longview Economics x David Murrin: Kondratiev Waves, WW3 & Bear Markets

In the first instalment of our new series, Longview Economics’ CEO Chris Watling spoke with author, behaviourist and global forecaster David Murrin to discuss the life cycle of empires, the end of the Western Super Empire, the ascension to empire of China, and how this impacts stock markets. Touching on technical analysis, Elliott and Kondratiev waves, bear markets and the end of the tech bubble. And even, has World War 3 already started?

financial market analysis


Daev Dangerous
"linear thinkers" are made for a steady state environment. I get this. I always note how entreprenuers give way to MBA types and companies lose their ability to create, hadn't quite thought about about it in politics and empire.

Excellent discussion. Particularly enjoyed the lateral/linear thinking ideas and how we need both and what happens as the lateral aspect gets sidelined. And the “create to earn” mantra for UK. Grow the pie don’t fight over your slice! And RR SMNR asap to create energy independence. 

On China would like to have heard David’s response to the Zeihan view on China as v different. One key point: as a big energy and food importer China is v vulnerable to supply chain disruption on both and does not have the naval power to project far enough to protect said supply lines. With massive pop dependent upon these imports USA can strangle quite easily if the war David expects was to start. Would really like to hear David’s counter argument. 

Anyway - thanks for the intro to David as will now go and consume his books/podcasts and website content. V helpful

Reply: Hi Adam, yes they are vulnerable but I’ve written a book, Red Lightning, that describes how they can circumvent this https://davidmurrin.co.uk/book/red-lightning

Jason Lake
Thanks a lot gents! Really enjoyed this!

One asset class that you didn't talk about was crypto - if the Nasdaq/Tech is going into decline for the next decade, is it all over for Bitcoin and the like?

rosie kelly
Great interview!

Dedicated 1
This guy is a genius. Would love to see a convo between him and Ray Dalio.

Dedicated 1
I think a little bit too much geopolitics, not enough financial markets in this one. Of course they’re related, but you get my point. Explaining the dynamics of the Kondratiec was good. 

I also wonder if David read Dalio’s stuff on big debt crises and changing world order because it basically matches with this 100% but they feel like independent derivations.

Reply: You might like to read my post How Original is Ray Dalio's New Book 'The Changing World Order'?!