Horatio and David Murrin discuss a shifting world order: a declining, alliance-strained U.S.-led West versus a rising, industrially scaled China at the centre of an “axis of autocracy.” David argues China has converted economic weight into military power (missiles, drones, hypersonics), created large anti-access/area-denial zones, and now holds the upper hand.
David foresees a decade-long global conflict cycle unless the West urgently mobilises industrially and militarily, coheres alliances, and creates a “firebreak” by decisively backing Ukraine. India and Turkey are portrayed as pivotal fence-sitters; Taiwan is the likeliest trigger, potentially cascading into a wider Pacific war. Murrin is sharply critical of Western leadership—especially Trump—for fragmenting alliances and slowing the response.
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Key points
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Power shift: From a post-Cold War unipolar U.S. order to a China-centred bloc with Russia, Iran, North Korea (and others) aligned.
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Alliance math: West = NATO + Pacific partners (Japan, Australia, South Korea, Philippines). East = China-led “axis of autocracy.”
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Industrial scale → military power: China out-producing and, in key areas, out-innovating the West (missiles, drones, hypersonics).
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A2/AD envelope: DF-26/DF-21 (and DF-17 hypersonic warheads) underpin long-range strike and carrier denial; carriers seen as vulnerable to saturation attacks.
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Golden Dome concept: Space-layered defence as a potential U.S. counter—but not operational, and could provoke preemption.
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Trigger logic: A Taiwan move would likely be paired with preemptive strikes on U.S./Japanese assets, risking rapid regional escalation.
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Cycle theory: We’re in a 108–112-year hegemonic conflict wave; resolution could take ~10+ years, as in prior great-power shifts.
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India & Turkey: Strategic hedging; expected to tilt West over time (India vs China rivalry; Turkey’s leverage inside NATO).
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Ukraine as firebreak: Decisive Western airpower and support urged to prevent wider contagion and signal resolve to Beijing/Moscow.
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West’s vulnerability: Inflation, debt, slow rearmament, fragmented leadership; need for coordinated industrial mobilisation.
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Nukes unlikely (per Murrin): China seeks to “inherit the world, not ashes”; precision conventional war more probable.
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Call to action: Mobilise now—defence spending, supply chains, alliance cohesion, and tech catch-up.
© David Murrin 2025. All images courtesy of Getty Images. |