In this episode, geopolitical strategist and macro investor David Murrin joins host Steve Yang to break down the world through the lens of long term war and empire cycles. Murrin explains why he believes the West is in the late stages of its current cycle, why entropy is rising across political, financial, and social systems, and how that translates into real world risk for investors and citizens.
Drawing on four decades of professional investing, Murrin challenges the idea of true black swans. He argues that so called surprises are usually the result of bad models and missed signals. Using his Global Forecaster framework, he walks through how power transitions, conflict escalation, and structural imbalances tend to repeat, and why China’s rise, the pressure on the dollar system, and the growing risk of wider war are all part of a predictable pattern.
Murrin and Yang also dig into the role of gold, silver, and commodities in this environment. They discuss why capital is moving into hard assets, why gold and silver can correct with the stock market and then launch much higher, and how debt, money printing, and geopolitical entropy intersect. Murrin shares bold upside views on gold and silver, along with his thinking on the coming commodity supercycle.
© David Murrin 2025. All images courtesy of Getty Images. |