Arkite Alerts Archive

Dear Arkite,

Listen now to my latest interview with Catherine Cashmore of Land Cycle Investor, "Cycles, economic downturns and intense geopolitical friction":

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The Kondratieff cycle represents fundamental shifts in economic power, innovation, and conflicts over resource allocation – often marking the end of an old economic order and setting the stage for a new wave of innovation and prosperity. War and major international conflicts happen in the years approaching the peak of the Kondratieff wave. David Murrin takes this analysis one step further, however. He describes the Kondratieff waves as cycles of entropy—periods characterised by increasing disorder and friction within global human social systems. While Kondratieff originally identified these as roughly 54–56-year economic cycles marked by recurring peaks of conflict, Murrin has expanded this concept to what he terms a major "war cycle," which encompasses two Kondratieff waves, totalling around 108–118 years. Murrin argues this extended cycle better captures the full rhythm of large-scale hegemonic conflicts. The peaks of these extended cycles are marked not just by economic downturns but by intense geopolitical friction, that alter the world order. And this is where we are now! In this week’s LCI interview you’ll discover...

• Why David firmly believes we entered World War 3 back in 2022, with Russia's invasion of Ukraine marking the onset.

• How current global events align precisely with historical cycles of war and empire—specifically his identified 108–112-year war cycle, consisting of two Kondratieff waves.

• The concept of "entropy waves," how they trigger global friction, and why conflicts consistently emerge near the peak of the cycle.

• Insights into America's stage of "terminal decline" in the broader historical pattern of empirical rise and fall.

• The deeper historical and regional complexities at play in the Israel-Gaza conflict with Trump's provocative stance further fuelling geopolitical tensions.

• Why David sees China as the central force behind current geopolitical tensions, empowering aggressive actions from nations like Russia, Iran, and North Korea.

• The critical significance of Ukraine—not as a minor regional conflict but as a major global battle indicative of this larger, ongoing war cycle.

• How the current geopolitical instability fits into a repeated pattern of history, forecasting substantial global upheaval before the cycle's expected peak in 2030.

The interview is a must-watch for anyone seeking clarity about today's chaotic geopolitical landscape and future developments.

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Understanding the Interconnected World of Global Forecaster

I aim to provide early warnings of geopolitical and economic shifts, allowing leaders and the public to anticipate and navigate critical inflection points. Read More

Dear Arkite,

I'm happy to present to you a comprehensive guide to Global Forecaster and my Murrinations Insights. Understanding the Interconnected World of Global Forecaster is a thorough compilation of my work that illustrates the how, what and why behind Global Forecaster. How it came about, what my insights can be used for and why I share them with you.

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The topics covered are listed below and these will help you grasp why now is the time to follow my work in full and get ahead of the oncoming storm before it's too late to change course.

Index

1.0 - The Origins of Murrinations
2.0 - Aspirations
3.0 - Global Trader
4.0 - Global Forecaster Strategy and Future
5.0 - Our Theories
6.0 - Five Stages of Empire
7.0 - K-Wave and War Cycles
8.0 - Polarisation and the Road to War
9.0 - The Theory of Anti-Entropic Human Evolution - Lateralisation
10.0 - Escalation into WW3
11.0 - Grand Strategy
12.0 - Weapons
13.0 - COVID, AKA the Wuhan Pandemic
14.0 - Monitoring Other Countries
15.0 - Global Politics
16.0 - Science
17.0 - Finance and Markets
18.0 - Philosophy 
19.0 - Unidentified Aerial Phenomena (UAPs)
20.0 - My Annual Predictions

I aim to provide early warnings of geopolitical and economic shifts, allowing leaders and the public to anticipate and navigate critical inflection points.

Murrinations: Your Compass In A Chaotic World

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Dear Arkite,

Listen now to my latest interview on Palisades Gold Radio:

Tom Bodrovics, Palisades Gold Radio, welcomes back global forecaster and author David Murrin to discuss the significance of historical understanding for predicting complex geopolitical events and avoiding future conflicts. Murrin shares his belief in the repetition of historical patterns due to human unconsciousness, emphasizing the importance of studying history from multiple perspectives. He believes that the current geopolitical situation between the West and China/Russia could lead to World War Three, highlighting historical cycles as potential catalysts for conflict.

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Talking Points From This Episode

• David Murrin stresses historical patterns' repetition and their role in predicting geopolitical conflicts.
• He identifies five stages of empires and warns about China's economic instability and military expansion.
• Murrin advocates understanding war blindness, lateral thinking, and historical cycles to prevent future conflicts.

Listen Now

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Dear Arkite,

Season 5 of my podcast, The State Of It, is back, and you can listen now!

"In the first episode of Season 5, David and Horatio talk about the current state of the world during a tough and confusing time where much too much is going on. Get a better understanding of what's really happening in the world. We cover Trump, Tariffs, Greenland, the Gulf of Mexico, Israel and Gaza, Climate Change, China, nuclear power and much more."

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Listen Now!

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Dear Arkite,

Listen now to my latest interview on the Macrocast by Forbes Tate Partners:

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In this episode, the Macrocast team is joined by global forecaster and author David Murrin. Using Murrin’s international relations theories as a framework for analysis, they take a macro-level view of the U.S. economy and its role in a shifting global order. The discussion explores whether the U.S. is in decline, the impact of global conflict—from the Middle East to Ukraine—and the role of debt. The episode concludes with insights from December’s job market data.

Listen Now

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Dear Arkite,

Today, the journey to disclosure and greater global UAP awareness is building momentum. Watch my interview with Catherine Cashmore of Land Cycle Investor to find out more:

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The recently released book Imminent by Luis Elizondo exposes the incredible evidence outlined by a key government insider turned whistleblower, which is a game changer for humanity. Additionally, a further area of interest is that we note the correlation between UAPs, war, and nuclear weapons, which crosses over into the domain of the unfolding of WW3 in the current entropic pulse into 2030. In addition, the potential duration and scale of the UAP cover-up goes to the heart of the Nature of Western democratic Governments."

Our discussion is a fascinating one – and to my knowledge, the only interview David has done solely on the subject. As David stresses, it is time to move beyond merely asking, "Are they real?" Instead, we should consider deeper, more urgent questions, such as:

• How much do the US and other governments know?
• How long have UFOs been visiting Earth?
• What is the connection between UFOs and nuclear weapons?
• What are the unique technological capabilities of UFOs?
• Where could UFOs come from?
• Has there been a sustained cover-up of UFO activity?
• Do UFOs operate under a policy of interference or non-interference in human affairs?
• What are USOs (Unidentified Submersible Objects) doing under our oceans?
• Have we already had close encounters?
• Would disclosure trigger the biggest cultural shift in human history?
• Why are they here?

Watch Now 

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Dear Arkite,

Happy New Year! Let's start the year with my latest interview with Ron William of the Foundation for the Study of Cycles:

"FSC Development Director Ron William recently interviewed David Murrin, a polymath known for his blog Murrinations. His career has focussed on recurring patterns of history and using them to try and predict the future for markets and society in turbulent times. David’s advisory and speaking work is based on his direct investment experience combined with a framework that can be used to explain and qualify decisions within an investment team, aid risk assessment, and reduce biases in collective investment decisions.

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Ron William, CFTe, is a market strategist and educator/mentor with more than 20 years of experience working for leading economic research and institutional firms. At his market advisory firm (RWA), his work gained industry recognition, and his market insights are featured regularly in financial media and industry publications. William is the FSC's Development Director."

Watch Now

Feedback

Really enjoyed the interview, definitely some golden nuggets in there and made me think of a few correlations I hadn't thought about before.
@conormcg8702

The Russian K Wave has it. Mike Maloney’s stages of empire, Fourth Turning etc. Always good to hear from Mr Murrin. Especially his conversation with Grant Williams. Best conversation I’ve listened to I think forever-the one with Grant. Need better thinkers here in the UK. We simply need this kind of stuff going more mainstream tbh.
@karimpaulrajan6682 

Great guest😊
@AussieCarnivoreRunner 

David is truly a great intellect.
@elliskaranikolaou2550 

Talk about a casually delivered way to scare the holy crap out of you. Great interview. scary conclusions.
@jobob47

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As we approach this festive season, I wish you and your loved ones peace, joy, and renewed optimism as you face the significant challenges ahead.

Christmas is a time to pause and reflect on the year that has passed and the opportunities that lie ahead. In a world of entropic change, I believe that, based on my theory of human anti-entropy, love, unity, adaptability, innovation, and resilience, underpinned by hope, guide us forward to the light.

In the face of challenges, we are reminded of the strength found in family and community, which gives us the courage to face darkness and embrace transformation.

Most importantly, let the spirit of Christmas inspire gratitude for all we have and are in this moment.

Fueling a new determination to meet the future with open hearts and minds.

May this season bring you love, clarity, compassion, and the resolve to turn uncertainty into opportunity, lighting the path to a brighter and more prosperous year ahead.

Wishing you a very Merry Christmas and a New Year filled with hope, health, and endless possibilities.

With warmest regards,

David Murrin
Global Forecaster

Dear Arkite,

I took part in Southbank Research Gold Summit 2025, and I can share with you exclusive access to my interview below:

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A who’s who of world renowned gold investors, experts and insiders:

I have pulled out all the stops to bring together investors and experts who are going to give you deep insight into the gold market.

Not the old news you see in the papers. Not the rumours you read online. But real market intelligence.

All told, you’ll be getting more than 125 years’ worth of combined gold investing wisdom and acumen.

And they are going to speak in plain English, no jargon or insider speak…

They all have one clear purpose: to help you understand why now is such a make-or-break time for anyone with money in gold, stocks, property or plain old savings in the bank.

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David Murrin on We Are Already in World War III

David Murrin is a geopolitical forecaster, advisor, and author with over three decades of experience. Transitioning to finance from an early career in oil exploration, Murrin joined JP Morgan, where he founded the European Market Analysis Group. He later co-founded Emergent Asset Management and authored Breaking the Code of History, offering insights into historical patterns that predict future geopolitical and market trends.

Watch Now

The Spotlight series is designed to introduce highly successful, unusual and – in many cases – idiosyncratic providers of independent research, data, tools and thinking. The third spotlight in the series introduces a seismologist-turned-trader, highly successful author and fund manager with a 20-plus year track record of successful geopolitical calls and significant alpha generation.

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