Arkite Alerts Archive

Dear Arkite,

Our results are out for Q1 2023:

Our best alpha-generating positions for the quarter were long silver and short the dollar index. As shown in the blue box, the quarter in silver comprised of a move lower into early March and then a retracement of that fall, back to the highs. In effect a V price action, which was replicated across most of the macro sectors. However, by using our ratchet risk model, we were able to make more alpha on the way up than we lost on the way down. Which was a good endorsement of our risk methodology. But most importantly, in silver and the dollar, this risk management methodology has kept us in these core strategic trades and added to our alpha-generated war chest.

Q1 2023 PERFORMANCE REVIEW CONTENTS

We recommend that our subscribers take the time to read this analysis of our performance to enhance their understanding of how we consistently extract alpha from the markets, whilst minimising our downside risk with extremely tight strategic stops.

1. Executive summary; Global Forecaster and Global Trader
2. Trade recommendation and risk methodology
3. Our key 2023 geopolitical calls
4. Our main Q1 2023 geopolitical calls
5. Q1 23 market predictions and performance
6. Alpha capture funds and their performance

Read the review in full

Dear Arkite,

The commodity cycle is in full flow, Xi Jinping is currently in Russia meeting with Vladimir Putin and NATO continue to supply weapons to Ukraine to defend their country. To help explain our thoughts on whether WW3 has actually started we have put together this page and would advise you to read it in full. Please also share it to help spread the word:

Find out more

Dear Arkite,

"In this interview with geopolitical forecaster David Murrin, we discuss Breaking the Spell of Denial – how individuals and businesses can face reality, create a strategy for survival and stay grounded and optimistic in times of crisis and global conflict."

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Watch Now

Dear Arkite,

If you do not wish to be a sheep with a box on your head, subscribe to my Murrinations Insights and find out what is really happening In the big bad world!

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Read David's Murrinations Insights in full on the website, predictions, strategy and analysis, covering the latest significant financial, geopolitical and environmental developments around the world. Insights are published on average twice a week. 

I am pleased to add some brief comments concerning David’s remarkable output via his regular and frequent Murrinations postings and other pieces covering inter alia the First World War, Covid and the Chinese question and a one man UK defence Review. Further whilst producing this prodigious output of facts, information and observations David somehow manages and advises on global investment strategy.

It is David’s deep study and knowledge of history that informs many of his views and judgements on geopolitical issues of the day and in the future. I would strongly advise more people to read David’s works. Frankly I would sleep easier if I could be confident that senior politicians and the MOD’s top brass from all services were among David Murrin’s readership. You may not be sympathetic to every view expressed but it is a learning experience to consider them.

Jonathan Perry - Chartered Accountant, 22 year Merchant Banker, Chairman of a PLC for 15 years until retirement

A subscription will give you instant online access, as opposed to a 6 month delay for non-subscribers. A 3 month trial subscription costs £150, 6 months £300 and 12 months £480. Subscribe Now.

Dear Arkite,

Catherine Cashmore, of Cycles, Trends & Forecasts, invited me back for a Q&A session, which you can watch here:

"As promised, I put your questions to David Murrin last week in our second interview for Cycles, Trends & Forecasts. He was delighted to get such an enthusiastic response, and I think you’ll find the content extremely interesting. We discussed, in brief, some events that have taken place in recent weeks — including the discovery of Chinese spy balloons over the USA. We then got straight to your questions."

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Watch Now

Dear Arkite,

My latest interview is available to watch, where I talk to Adz about the theories behind Breaking The Code Of History, Churchill, quantum mechanics, Chinese philosophy, empires, parenting, Admiral Nelson, wokeism, 9/11, linear/lateral thinking, WWI, WWII, WWIII, Brexit, Roswell, Reagan, Trump, Obama and more!

"Global Forecaster David Murrin talks to Adz about the truth; how he is able to successfully predict EVERY SINGLE election result, pandemic or world war without fail."

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Dear Arkite,

My latest interview for Southbank Investment Research is available to watch now, where I discuss the energy crisis and WW3:

"Global forecaster David Murrin simply wasn’t interested in discussing his latest energy crisis predictions. Even if they’d just been vindicated, again. Instead, he kept on circling back to one single issue: why World War III could be imminent. I’m sure that sounds fantastical and not particularly relevant to investors. That is why I had intended to interview David about energy markets instead. But, as you’ll see in this video, we are hurtling down the road of escalation towards something that is predictable and crucial for investors to understand…"

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Watch the interview in full

Dear Arkite,

My interview with Catherine Cashmore, of Land Cycle Investor, is available to watch now. I chat about what I see ahead in terms of the potential of a third world war, my books Breaking The Code Of History, Lions Led By Lions, Red Lightning, Australia's dependency on exports to China and where I think we should hide and store our cash at the peak of the Kondratiev wave. 

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Dear Arkite,

Here's my latest interview with North Star Bad Charts covering global bifurcation, Russia and China's threat to the west, inflation, Germany's weakness and empire cycles.

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Listen now

Dear Arkite,

I continue my conversation on Palisades Gold Radio by discussing which commodities will be highly strategic. I believe all the metals are set to take off along with oil.

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"David discusses the role of commodities in the conflicts of the world and how governments should move towards a hybrid market command system in order to secure essential resources and protect their economies. He also talks about the collapse of real wealth due to inflationary dynamics and asset price depreciation, as well as the devaluation of the dollar due to the money printing of central banks. He argues that the only lever central banks have to fight inflation is to raise rates, but this could have a crushing effect on markets and people's wealth.

David discusses various geopolitical themes to watch for in the coming year, such as the Taiwan conflict, the Biden presidency, and inflation. David predicts that China may make a move soon and that the US, Japan, and South Korea would be the targets of a possible preemptive strike. He believes that Russia does not have the ability to mount an effective offensive in Ukraine and the Allies in NATO are prepared to back a Ukrainian victory. David also talks about the importance of being prepared for surprises and adapting to changing conditions. Finally, he reflects on the human desire to fight, noting that warfare can bring people together for a common cause."

0:00 - Intro
0:24 - Strategic Commodities
3:49 - China & Supply Chains
7:14 - Real Wealth Collapse
9:05 - Dollar & Devaluation
11:50 - Inflation Path & Rates
14:37 - Gold the Anti-Entropic
19:04 - Metals & Mining Stocks
23:02 - Geopolitical Themes
29:40 - Change & Perspective
37:03 - Wrap Up

Listen now