Arkite Alerts Archive

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For those of you who are relatively new to Global Forecaster, I thought it would be interesting to give you a brief overview and perspective of my work over the past two decades and some current views. Curious about the power of AI, I generated these answers using ChatGPT!
 

Question 6 - What were David Murrin's views on Brexit based on His Five stages of Empire Model?

David Murrin has viewed Brexit as a positive transformational process, considering it as a necessary step for the UK to regain sovereignty and position itself strategically in a changing global landscape. He predicted the referendum outcome, emphasising the social drivers behind the decision, such as the desire for greater independence from EU bureaucracy. However, Murrin has been critical of how Brexit has been handled, arguing that the UK government has failed to maximise its potential advantages, leaving the country underprepared for future challenges (https://www.davidmurrin.co.uk/blog-entry/ww3-the-world-is-on-the-brink) (https://www.davidmurrin.co.uk/blog-tags/brexit).

Question 7 - What are David Murrin's views on key leaders based on His Five Stages of Empire Model?

David Murrin is critical of Keir Starmer and the Labour Party, viewing them as ineffective in addressing the major geopolitical and economic challenges facing the UK. Murrin believes that Starmer's Labour lacks the visionary leadership needed to navigate complex global shifts, particularly in relation to China and the UK's position post-Brexit. He has expressed concerns that the party is not adequately preparing for the future, especially with respect to geopolitical threats and economic restructuring (https://www.politics.co.uk/politicslunch/2024/09/13/the-early-warning-signs-facing-keir-starmer-and-labour/) (https://www.politico.eu/article/labour-government-uk-china-relations-diplomacy-rival-elections-2024-foreign-policy-david-lammy/). Murrin also sees Starmer's Labour as continuing to miss opportunities to harness the UK's potential in a post-Brexit world with policies that he feels fail to align with the realities of global power shifts (https://www.davidmurrin.co.uk/blog-tags/brexit).

David Murrin is notably critical of President Joe Biden, particularly regarding his handling of global geopolitical issues. Murrin sees Biden's leadership as part of a broader decline in Western influence, especially in relation to the US' global standing. He argues that Biden has failed to respond effectively to major challenges such as China's rise and the shifting global power dynamics. Murrin believes that Biden's policies have contributed to weakening US global leadership at a time when strong and decisive action is required (https://podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/the-state-of-it/id1573113137 (https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/the-state-of-it/id1547176135). In particular, Murrin criticises Biden’s handling of key geopolitical conflicts, including the ongoing tensions with China and Russia. He suggests that Biden's approach is reactive rather than proactive, which, in Murrin's view, leaves the US and its allies vulnerable in an increasingly competitive world (https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2024/06/11/globally-biden-receives-higher-ratings-than-trump/).

David Murrin has been highly critical of Rishi Sunak, particularly viewing his leadership as lacking the necessary political vision and strategic acumen to navigate the significant challenges the UK faces. Murrin argues that Sunak's premiership has been defined by a failure to effectively address key geopolitical and economic issues. He sees Sunak as too focused on maintaining stability within the fractured Conservative Party rather than demonstrating the bold leadership required in today's rapidly changing world. Murrin also criticises Sunak for his weak approach to defending the UK’s national security, calling him "100% the wrong person" for the job in a time of growing global tensions. Sunak's perceived detachment from ordinary people, combined with his lack of political instinct and failure to challenge the party's radical elements, has left the country in a vulnerable position (https://www.politico.eu/article/rishi-sunak-failure/) (https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/rishi-sunak-downfall-tory-humiliation-b2572612.html). Overall, Murrin paints Sunak as an ineffective leader, more concerned with optics than with meaningful action, and as someone unable to unite the Conservative Party or command the country's confidence during a time of crisis.

David Murrin has been consistently critical of Boris Johnson's leadership, particularly highlighting Johnson's failure to adequately defend the UK in the face of rising global threats. Murrin believes Johnson missed critical opportunities to strengthen the nation's defences, especially at a time of increased geopolitical instability. He has argued that Johnson did not respond effectively to warnings about emerging threats, such as those highlighted in Murrin's Now or Never Defence Review (https://www.politico.eu/article/rishi-sunak-failure/) (https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/rishi-sunak-downfall-tory-humiliation-b2572612.html). Moreover, Murrin views Johnson as having betrayed Conservative values, as having failed to deliver on the promises of Brexit, and as having allowed moral and political corruption to undermine the country. According to Murrin, this mismanagement delayed the potential benefits of Brexit and weakened the UK's position at a crucial time (https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/rishi-sunak-downfall-tory-humiliation-b2572612.html).

David Murrin views Donald Trump as a narcissistic figure in global politics. He acknowledges Trump's disruptive role in international affairs but is critical of his lack of long-term strategic vision. Murrin has described Trump as a "clown", implying that while Trump's presidency stirred up the political landscape, especially in challenging global norms, it lacked the coherence and foresight necessary to navigate the evolving geopolitical dynamics effectively. He believes that Trump's erratic style and nationalist policies contributed to the declining influence of the United States on the global stage (https://palisadesradio.ca/david-murrin-we-are-looking-at-a-decade-of-conflict/) (https://www.davidmurrin.co.uk/blog). Despite these criticisms, Murrin recognises that Trump's rise to power was symptomatic of broader global shifts, particularly the growing polarisation in Western politics and a backlash against liberal political elites. However, Murrin remains skeptical of Trump's capacity to address the deeper systemic challenges facing the US and the global order.

If you wish to understand our ever-more entropic world, subscribe to Murrinations Gold for the price of a newspaper and see the world without those rose-tinted glasses- so you can navigate the rapids ahead.

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1. Do you have the in-house skills to predict the market's responses as events escalate into a global war?
2. Have you appreciated that the current conflict-escalating dynamics, which are taking place against the rising entropy of the K-wave into 2030, make de-escalation highly unlikely?
3. Are you in denial in a state of war blindness? Much as in July 1914, we are now in an unstoppable chain reaction to a full-blown regional war in the Middle East. Yet the majority of the population of the democratic world is in total denial as to the scale of the disaster ahead.
4. Have you accounted for the Delusional market behaviour? Similar to July 1914, the world and markets are in denial in a state of war blindness. Hence, we are not seeing reality reflected in markets. But remember, after the assignation of Archduke Ferdinand in 1914, the markets went sideways for a month, then when the first shot was fired, UK bonds fell 50%! To survive this situation, we must all shake off our shock and be prepared for the worst while only hoping for the best! So, re-read:
5. Are you prepared for a massive oil price shock? The key immediate economic ramification will be the massive rally in oil to $150, and over the next few years $250, as the Gulf is closed to traffic by Iran, which will be the driver behind market responses. Read; The Iran-Israel War Will Drive A Major Commodity Rally.
6. Have you factored in that China could well Initiate its war with America. In line with our predictions of a total escalation into WW3, we see a high probability that China could commence its war with America as the Middle Eastern war escalates (see Red Peril 30; Ten Reasons Why Xi Will Go To War In 2024 and Red Peril 41. American War Blindness; Part 8 Vulnerability Exposed). A key reason is an oil shock that further weakens China's economy, forcing Xi into war rather than economic collapse (see Managing Investment Risk Into A War With China).
7. Have you done the work? Can you afford not to integrate our perspectives into your investment starter?

• An Investment Strategy For WW3: Part 1
• An Investment Strategy for WW3: Part 2 – Market Behaviour During WW1
• An Investment Strategy for WW3: Part 3 – Market Behaviour During WW2
• An Investment Strategy for WW3: Part 4 – How To Preserve Wealth

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We integrate unique behavioural models outlined in  Theories | David Murrin (rmaco.com) . Breaking the Code of Markets | David Murrin. Much like a weather forecaster predicts the weather. Real time ever-changing

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• Unique Long-term Empire cycle analysis with 20-plus-year track record of specific and time-focused accurate prediction for global geopolitics.
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‘’David you fully integrated work combining global geopolitical historical perspective, overlaid with a keen understanding of the inner workings of financial markets, provide a level of wisdom that is rare. The quality and depth of research is invaluable to leaders across the investment, cooperate and political disciplines’’

Satish Rai- Chief Investment Officer OMERS Pension Fund

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A Unique Financial Military Fusion for a Time of war

• Do you have the in-house skills to assess the market as global events run to war?
• We offer world class expertise and military analysis with a focus on predictive output to anticipate the start and course of major conflicts that will shape our world
• We offer a unique insight on warfare that is absent in financial markets.
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“David is one of the best and most innovative geo-strategic thinkers I know. His understanding of past and current wars, and the weapons and strategies used to shape their outcomes, is profound. This has enabled him to make a series of remarkably prescient predictions about the new age of war, that unfortunately are coming true in front of our eyes. Our political and military leaders would greatly benefit from drawing on his knowledge and insight to help them navigate through these perilous times.”

Lord Richards of Herstmonceux, General Richards GCB, CBE, DSO, DL formerly The Chief of the Defence Staff, the professional head of the British Armed Forces.

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Track record and performance

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• Our results over five years have been consistently impressive, and we recommend that any of you managing money should take the time to read this report and consider subscribing. Arkent Macro Q3 2024 Performance Review - The Threat of War Drives The  Safe Haven Rally  | David Murrin

Engage David | David Murrin

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For those of you who are relatively new to Global Forecaster, I thought it would be interesting to give you a brief overview and perspective of my work over the past two decades and some current views. Curious about the power of AI, I generated these answers with the help of ChatGPT!

Question 4 - What are the common criticisms of David Murrin’s work?

1. Overly deterministic: Some critics argue that Murrin’s predictions, while grounded in historical cycles, can sometimes appear too deterministic. His reliance on cyclical patterns might downplay the role of contingency, innovation, or changes in human behaviour that could disrupt historical trends. To see our answer to this, read FAQs under Testimonials | David Murrin

2. Polarising views: His predictions about the decline of the West and the rise of China can be controversial. While some see his foresight as prescient, others view it as too pessimistic or one-sided. Our response to this can be found at Red Peril 41. American War Blindness; Part 1

Question 5: How would you rate David Murrin's work?

Identifying the geopolitical forecaster with the "best track record of accuracy" can be subjective, as it often depends on the specific metrics used, the time frames considered, and the nature of the forecasts made. However, a few global geopolitical forecasters and think tanks are frequently recognised for their historical accuracy and impact:

1. George Friedman (Stratfor and Geopolitical Futures): The founder of Stratfor (a private intelligence firm) and later Geopolitical Futures has a strong reputation for long-term geopolitical forecasting. His 2009 book The Next 100 Years made bold predictions about the 21st Century that have been praised for their foresight on issues such as US dominance, rising tensions with Russia, and the growth of Turkey and Poland as regional powers. While some of his forecasts are controversial or long-term, his insights are often seen as highly strategic and credible.

Friedman uses a mixture of historical analysis, political theory, and strategic assessment, focusing heavily on geography and long-term cycles in geopolitics.

2. Ian Bremmer (Eurasia Group): The founder of the Eurasia Group is known for his annual Top Risks reports, which outline key global risks for the coming year. He has been relatively accurate in identifying major geopolitical events, such as the rise of populism, the increasing influence of China, and significant changes in US foreign policy. Bremmer specialises in analysing political risk and the impact of global governance structures on market economies. His expertise lies in the intersection of politics and economics, particularly in emerging markets.

3. David Murrin (Global Forecaster): The founder of Global Forecaster has gained a following for his unconventional forecasting methods, often drawing on historical cycles of empire and civilisational shifts. He has made some bold predictions about Western decline, China's rise, and the dynamics of conflict, which have resonated with many, especially in light of recent global developments. Murrin relies on cyclical models of history and empire, which he applies to contemporary geopolitics. His approach focuses on long-term historical patterns and cycles of growth, dominance, and decline.

4. Peter Zeihan (Zeihan on Geopolitics): The former analyst with Stratfor has become known for his books like The Accidental Superpower and The Absent Superpower, which predicted the US retreat from global affairs and the destabilisation of global supply chains. His insights into demographic trends and energy geopolitics have gained a following, especially after the pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war. Zeihan combines geopolitics, demographics, and energy market analysis to make predictions about global economic and political trends, particularly emphasising US isolationism and the fragmentation of global systems.

5. Nouriel Roubini (Roubini Macro Associates): While primarily known for his economic predictions, Roubini's forecasts often intersect with geopolitical issues. He is most famous for predicting the 2008 financial crisis, but he has also offered important warnings about geopolitical risks like the potential for conflict in the Middle East, the rise of populism, and challenges in the global financial system. Roubini blends economic analysis with geopolitical risk factors, often focusing on systemic risks to the global financial system.

6. The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU): The EIU is well regarded for its country-specific political and economic risk forecasts. It produces in-depth analysis across multiple regions, often used by businesses, governments, and institutions for strategic planning. EIU analysts provide quantitative assessments of risks by using a combination of macroeconomic and political analysis, offering detailed forecasts for individual countries and regions.

7. The RAND Corporation: The RAND Corporation is a US-based think tank that has had a strong track record in defence and security-related forecasts. Its work is used extensively by the US government and NATO for long-term strategic planning and it has produced many accurate forecasts in areas like cybersecurity, military strategy, and the evolution of global conflicts. RAND employs a rigorous, data-driven approach, often conducting war games and simulations to forecast potential geopolitical outcomes.

If you wish to understand our ever-more entropic world and the unfolding Regional war in the Middle East, and the regional war In Ukraine. We urgently encourage you to subscribe to Murrinations Gold for the price of a newspaper and see the world without those rose-tinted glasses so you can navigate the rapids ahead.

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Global Trader offers the IP of a Global Macro Hedge fund real time to our Clients. Like all funds we track our alpha generation record and publish it in the public domain, every quarter end.

This quarter our key investment strategy of owning precious metals once again produced substantial returns

Our results over five years have been consistently impressive and we recommend that any of you managing money should take the time to read this report and consider subscribing.

Read more at Global Trader: Your External CIO | David Murrin

Arkent Macro Q3 2024 Performance Review - The Threat of War Drives The  Safe Haven Rally 

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Dear Arkite,

Watch my latest interview on Palisades Gold Radio:

Tom Bodrovics, Palisades Gold Radio, welcomes back global forecaster and author David Murrin to discuss the significance of historical understanding for predicting complex geopolitical events and avoiding future conflicts. Murrin shares his belief in the repetition of historical patterns due to human unconsciousness, emphasizing the importance of studying history from multiple perspectives. He believes that the current geopolitical situation between the West and China/Russia could lead to World War Three, highlighting historical cycles as potential catalysts for conflict.

Murrin also shares his theory on five stages of empires, which he's applies to Britain, Germany, and America's power dynamics. He warns about the challenges facing China due to economic instability and military expansion, urging strategic thinking to counteract this challenge. Murrin discusses China's economic shift towards industry growth, and the potential implications of the U.S.'s rate-cutting cycle. David emphasizes the importance of understanding war blindness, a dangerous tendency for denial and appeasement in Western society, and the potential consequences of inflation due to economic power shifts between democratic and autocratic systems. He encourages individual action and the embrace of lateral thinking as crucial steps for personal growth and societal progress. Murrin also discusses the potential for wars to promote accelerated societal evolution and encourages understanding historical cycles to prevent future conflicts.

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Talking Points From This Episode

• David Murrin stresses historical patterns' repetition and their role in predicting geopolitical conflicts.
• He identifies five stages of empires and warns about China's economic instability and military expansion.
• Murrin advocates understanding war blindness, lateral thinking, and historical cycles to prevent future conflicts.

Watch Now

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We have started a new Instagram and Facebook feed on World events, so please rush over and sign up. I will be asking the big questions of our time and of course, pointing to where you can find the answers! Short and to the point!

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