Arkite Alerts Archive

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This extensive interview lasted for over 4.5 hours and is not in the public domain, as it is only available to his gold members

However, Grant has kindly made our conversation available only to Murrination Gold Subscribers.

So  CHOOSE YOUR GOLD SUBSCRIPTION TO David Murrin and gain this bonus and a new understanding of this perilous world we all live in and its oncoming challenges;

The 43rd episode of About Time

Grant travels to rural England to spend the day with David Murrin. From the jungles of Papua New Guinea to the trading floors of Wall Street, David’s life has been a compelling journey through the core of global risk.

A former hedge fund manager, Murrin’s unique worldview—shaped by a family legacy steeped in Britain’s imperial history—has led him to a stark conclusion: the world stands on the cusp of a new era defined by escalating conflict and upheaval.

In this expansive conversation, Murrin challenges conventional thinking with bold predictions about the decline of American power, the rise of China, and the growing likelihood of a third world war—all converging within the next few years. This episode offers a rare and thought-provoking glimpse into a future few dare to acknowledge.

About Time

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Conducting an in-depth interview over the course of a day is a delicate exercise in time management—a dynamic blend of structured choreography and organic improvisation. It’s a pursuit driven by the challenge of uncovering timeless yet original insights. Amid the tangle of cables powering cameras, lights, and microphones, there’s a tangible awareness of the clock ticking—each moment a chance to ask the right question, to spark that elusive “a-ha” moment that captures the essence of a subject’s decades of experience: the building, the setbacks, the breakthroughs. And always, there's the quiet obligation to honour the time our About Time viewers invest in every interview we produce. It’s a challenge the grant-williams.com team welcomes wholeheartedly.

Gold tier subscribers receive exclusive access to About Time—monthly, long-form interviews with some of the most insightful and hard-to-reach figures in finance. Building on the tradition of the In Conversation With… series, Grant hits the road once again to deliver compelling, intimate conversations designed to shift your worldview for years to come.

Gold members also gain access to The Gold Bar—Grant’s private, subscriber-only Slack room—where ideas are exchanged, relationships are built, and discourse is held to a standard of mutual respect.

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Contrast David’s predictive power with the retrospective nature of mainstream news.

Why should you invest in David’s Murrination Insights?

David Murrin’s insights are widely praised for their depth, accuracy, and originality. Subscribers frequently highlight the unmatched foresight he offers — identifying key global trends and geopolitical shifts well before they hit the mainstream. While many media outlets report on what’s already happened, David consistently predicts what’s next, making his analysis truly investment-grade and indispensable for anyone trying to stay ahead of unfolding world events.

From military expertise to financial foresight, David brings a rare blend of experience that informs his unique global model. His work has helped investors, business owners, and concerned pensioners make sense of chaotic times, anticipate risks, and seize opportunities. Whether you’re tracking financial markets, planning for retirement, or simply trying to understand the bigger picture, his commentary offers clarity and strategic value.

What sets Murrinations apart is not just accuracy — it’s perspective. David links history, psychology, and patterns like Kondratiev and Elliott waves to explain today’s headlines and tomorrow’s. His work challenges conventional thinking, appeals to naturally curious minds, and speaks to those tired of mainstream echo chambers. For many, reading his work feels like finding a kindred voice — one grounded in realism, truth, and an uncommon optimism that through facing reality we can overcome any obstacles ahead.

"I don’t know enough about charting (price based analysis)  to make much of it myself, but I’ve seen enough to recognise the repetitive nature of market-driven behaviour. Market patterns do repeat and are therefore worth paying attention to. For instance, for a superb overview, take a look at David Murrin’s website. His global forecasts and commentary are worth a sign-up to run through his chart-supported outlook and reading of the underlying forces at play."

Bill Blain - Morning Porridge and Shard Capital

In Trumps entropic world, Murrinations Insights will help you to future-proof your world with analysis, predictions, and strategies to help you anticipate future events. His insights are based on a global model that integrates significant geopolitical, military, economic, financial market, and environmental developments. Murrinations are published on a regular basis as David reacts to the rhythms of the geopolitical world around us, on average twice a week. They are then updated with real time news as they unfold in our update strings at the bottom of each Murrination. Allowing you to follow our predictions.

In contrast to newspapers - which solely furnish yesterday's headlines - David’s insights stand out for their exceptional ability to predict those very headlines.

All you have to do to subscribe is follow this link and select a Gold-level option https://www.davidmurrin.co.uk/choose-your-subscription 

Whilst our Silver-level subscription is designed to offer a taste once a week on Sunday as to our world view. Our Gold-level subscription offers our full coverage of the unfolding geopolitical world.

"I don't think many people realise how difficult and taxing it is to write often and well. And then to write lucidly about vexing topics too; then put your arse on the line with predicting on top of it. I realise that and applaud you every time I get a post from you."

Mario Pretorius, The Unconventional CEO, entrepreneur and writer

Read more here about why you shouldn’t leave it any longer and subscribe now https://www.davidmurrin.co.uk/feedback-0

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Dear Arkite,

Listen to my latest interview on the Warships Pod podcast with Iain Ballantyne.

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In this episode of the Warships Pod guests David Murrin and Dr David Blagden, with help from host Iain Ballantyne, discuss a worldwide struggle in a multi-polar era that is rapidly turning kinetic - from Ukraine, to the Red Sea and Gaza. It may soon burn even hotter should China invade Taiwan and/or the USA attack Iran.

A number of topics are discussed during this episode, including the following:

• Does the European Union (EU) have a place in such a world, at the top table? Or is it going to be sweeping up the crumbs along with the UK, the latter finding itself a bridge to neither the USA or the EU?
• Bearing in mind the UK is a maritime nation, is committing what remains of the British armed forces to policing a frozen war in Ukraine unwise? Do we risk a situation where things get bogged down in that theatre while the Russians run amok at sea, with the UK defenceless?
• With concerted attacks by US Navy carrier jets and cruise missile attacks by other USN units against the Houthis in Yemen is it at odds with the Trump administration’s supposed urgent priority of facing down China and its huge navy? Every missile expended against the Houthis is surely one less for use against the Chinese?
• Narrowing the discussion down to the UK, with the Labour government announcing plans to cut welfare to pay for Defence boosts, how do the two Davids think the Royal Navy should mould itself?
• Finally - and this is a big one for the episode’s final point of discussion - are we heading inexorably towards what the tabloids might call WW3? Or can it be avoided?

The May 2025 edition of Warships IFR is published on 22.4.25 in the UK and also deployed globally. Visit the magazine web site http://bit.ly/wifrmag Also, follow it on X @WarshipsIFR Facebook @WarshipsIFR and Warships IFR TV on YouTube @warshipsifrtv3668 For more on various editions of the magazine https://bit.ly/wifri
 

• Dr David Blagden is Associate Professor in International Security and Strategy at the University of Exeter. Dr Blagden has previously worked in the Cabinet Office, regularly consults for several UK Government departments, and has served as Specialist Advisor to a Parliamentary Select Committee. He is also a Senior Associate Fellow of the NATO Defense College and a Visiting Fellow of the Royal Navy Strategic Studies Centre. Find him on X @blagden_david
• David Murrin is a Global Forecaster, investor, polymath and author of ‘Breaking the Code of History’ (2011). He has a talent for spotting and analysing deep-seated patterns in history and using them to try and understand the present and also where we might be going in today’s turbulent geopolitical scene. His other books are ‘Lions Led by Lions’ (2018), ‘Now or Never’ (2021) and ‘Red Lightning’ (2021). The latter is a work of faction that depicts China winning a world war. David Murrin’s website is https://www.davidmurrin.co.uk/about Find him on X @GlobalForecastr
• Iain Ballantyne is the founding and current Editor of ‘Warships IFR’ magazine (first published in 1998) along with its ‘Guide to the Royal Navy’ (since 2003) and ‘Guide to the US Navy’ (since 2018). Iain is also author of the books ‘Hunter Killers’ (Orion) and ‘The Deadly Trade’ (Weidenfeld & Nicolson), both about submarine warfare, plus ‘Arnhem: Ten Days in The Cauldron’ and ‘Bismarck: 24 Hours to Doom’ (published by Canelo). In 2017 Iain was awarded a Fellowship by the British Maritime Foundation, which promotes awareness of the United Kingdom’s dependence on the sea and seafarers. Visit his web site Bismarckbattle.com and follow him on X @IBallantyn

Listen Now

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The boundaries between fiction and foresight blur intriguingly in the works of David Murrin and the concept of psychohistory, introduced by Isaac Asimov through his character Hari Seldon. Though separated by genre—one a real-world geopolitical thinker, the other a fictional mathematician from a galactic empire—their ideas share remarkable thematic and methodological parallels. At their core lies a singular ambition: to map the future of civilisations through the lens of large-scale behavioral patterns.

David Murrin, a former hedge fund manager turned global strategist, is best known for his theory of civilizational cycles, where nations rise and fall in predictable phases: regionalization, ascension, maturity, overextension, decline, and ultimately collapse. Rooted in historical data, Murrin’s work focuses on patterns of empire, innovation, military expansion, and cultural confidence—arguing that human behavior, especially at the collective level, is cyclical and thus predictable.

Hari Seldon, the fictional mathematician in Foundation, operates on a similar thesis. Psychohistory, the science he develops, uses advanced mathematics and probabilistic modeling to predict the broad course of history over millennia. Though Seldon concedes that the actions of individuals are inherently unpredictable, the behavior of large populations, when taken in aggregate, adheres to statistical laws. Through psychohistory, Seldon foresees the collapse of the Galactic Empire and lays out a secret plan—the Foundation—to shorten the coming dark age.

The parallels between Murrin and Seldon are striking. Both see history not as chaotic or random but as a system governed by rhythms, feedback loops, and self-reinforcing cycles. Murrin’s warning about the West’s decline and China’s rise echoes Seldon’s projections of civilisational decay and rebirth. Both suggest that leaders ignore historical patterns at their peril—and that timely, strategic intervention could mitigate catastrophe.

A particularly compelling link is the idea of preemptive stabilisation. Seldon’s Foundation is designed not to prevent the fall of the empire, but to manage the aftermath, preserving knowledge and accelerating recovery. Similarly, Murrin does not propose utopian avoidance of decline but urges policymakers to recognize early warning signs and act decisively. In both cases, awareness of the cycle is key to transcending it.

Where they diverge is in tools and certainty. Seldon’s psychohistory is mathematical, precise to the point of predicting centuries in advance. Murrin, meanwhile, works within the messier world of human psychology, economics, and realpolitik—where variables are harder to control and narratives resist clean equations. Yet, the spirit of the enterprise remains the same: to impose order on the apparent chaos of geopolitics through deep historical pattern recognition.

Today, as the global order shifts and empires once again teeter between renewal and decline, the dialogue between Murrin’s real-world modeling and Seldon’s fictional foresight seems more relevant than ever. Both warn us that the seeds of the future are sown in the behavior of the present—and that if we learn to read the signs, we might just shape what comes next.

CHOOSE YOUR SUBSCRIPTION | David Murrin

Murrinations Insights will help you to future-proof your world with investment-grade analysis, predictions, and strategies to help you anticipate future events. Our insights are based on a global model that integrates significant geopolitical, military, economic, financial market, and environmental developments. Murrinations are published on a regular basis as David reacts to the rhythms of the geopolitical world around us, on average twice a week.

In contrast to newspapers - which solely furnish yesterday's headlines - David’s insights stand out for their exceptional ability to predict those very headlines.

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Dear Arkite,

CIO Ben Ashby is a superb Fund manager out of the senior management of JP Morgan. He has for years been a close associate of Global Forecaster. Hence I thought you would enjoy his very engaging keynote presentation taken from Henderson Rowe's Q1 Investor luncheon hosted at Raffles London.

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Watch Now!

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Dear Arkite,

An interview with Canadian Prepper discussing Kondratiev waves, WWI, WWII, linear and lateral thinking and how we got to the current geopolitical situation and WWIII.

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Watch Now!

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Dear Arkite,

I'm happy to announce a new way to gain advice on the current and future geopolitical and financial situation facing you, with one-to-one sessions made to meet your specific needs.

Murrin One-To-One - Geopolitical & Market Insights — When You Need Them – Global Forecaster is pleased to offer a new one-on-one premium service for Asset managers and C suites. Gain exclusive, timely, tailored geopolitical and market analysis with a consultation with David to address your strategic needs and specific questions.

• Expert insights on geopolitical shifts and market moves.
• Customised discussion focused on your priorities.
• Flexible scheduling—book at a time that suits you.
• £5000 per hour

Book your session today.

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Dear Arkite,

Listen now to my latest interview with Catherine Cashmore of Land Cycle Investor, "Cycles, economic downturns and intense geopolitical friction":

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The Kondratieff cycle represents fundamental shifts in economic power, innovation, and conflicts over resource allocation – often marking the end of an old economic order and setting the stage for a new wave of innovation and prosperity. War and major international conflicts happen in the years approaching the peak of the Kondratieff wave. David Murrin takes this analysis one step further, however. He describes the Kondratieff waves as cycles of entropy—periods characterised by increasing disorder and friction within global human social systems. While Kondratieff originally identified these as roughly 54–56-year economic cycles marked by recurring peaks of conflict, Murrin has expanded this concept to what he terms a major "war cycle," which encompasses two Kondratieff waves, totalling around 108–118 years. Murrin argues this extended cycle better captures the full rhythm of large-scale hegemonic conflicts. The peaks of these extended cycles are marked not just by economic downturns but by intense geopolitical friction, that alter the world order. And this is where we are now! In this week’s LCI interview you’ll discover...

• Why David firmly believes we entered World War 3 back in 2022, with Russia's invasion of Ukraine marking the onset.

• How current global events align precisely with historical cycles of war and empire—specifically his identified 108–112-year war cycle, consisting of two Kondratieff waves.

• The concept of "entropy waves," how they trigger global friction, and why conflicts consistently emerge near the peak of the cycle.

• Insights into America's stage of "terminal decline" in the broader historical pattern of empirical rise and fall.

• The deeper historical and regional complexities at play in the Israel-Gaza conflict with Trump's provocative stance further fuelling geopolitical tensions.

• Why David sees China as the central force behind current geopolitical tensions, empowering aggressive actions from nations like Russia, Iran, and North Korea.

• The critical significance of Ukraine—not as a minor regional conflict but as a major global battle indicative of this larger, ongoing war cycle.

• How the current geopolitical instability fits into a repeated pattern of history, forecasting substantial global upheaval before the cycle's expected peak in 2030.

The interview is a must-watch for anyone seeking clarity about today's chaotic geopolitical landscape and future developments.

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Understanding the Interconnected World of Global Forecaster

I aim to provide early warnings of geopolitical and economic shifts, allowing leaders and the public to anticipate and navigate critical inflection points. Read More

Dear Arkite,

I'm happy to present to you a comprehensive guide to Global Forecaster and my Murrinations Insights. Understanding the Interconnected World of Global Forecaster is a thorough compilation of my work that illustrates the how, what and why behind Global Forecaster. How it came about, what my insights can be used for and why I share them with you.

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The topics covered are listed below and these will help you grasp why now is the time to follow my work in full and get ahead of the oncoming storm before it's too late to change course.

Index

1.0 - The Origins of Murrinations
2.0 - Aspirations
3.0 - Global Trader
4.0 - Global Forecaster Strategy and Future
5.0 - Our Theories
6.0 - Five Stages of Empire
7.0 - K-Wave and War Cycles
8.0 - Polarisation and the Road to War
9.0 - The Theory of Anti-Entropic Human Evolution - Lateralisation
10.0 - Escalation into WW3
11.0 - Grand Strategy
12.0 - Weapons
13.0 - COVID, AKA the Wuhan Pandemic
14.0 - Monitoring Other Countries
15.0 - Global Politics
16.0 - Science
17.0 - Finance and Markets
18.0 - Philosophy 
19.0 - Unidentified Aerial Phenomena (UAPs)
20.0 - My Annual Predictions

I aim to provide early warnings of geopolitical and economic shifts, allowing leaders and the public to anticipate and navigate critical inflection points.

Murrinations: Your Compass In A Chaotic World

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Dear Arkite,

Listen now to my latest interview on Palisades Gold Radio:

Tom Bodrovics, Palisades Gold Radio, welcomes back global forecaster and author David Murrin to discuss the significance of historical understanding for predicting complex geopolitical events and avoiding future conflicts. Murrin shares his belief in the repetition of historical patterns due to human unconsciousness, emphasizing the importance of studying history from multiple perspectives. He believes that the current geopolitical situation between the West and China/Russia could lead to World War Three, highlighting historical cycles as potential catalysts for conflict.

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Talking Points From This Episode

• David Murrin stresses historical patterns' repetition and their role in predicting geopolitical conflicts.
• He identifies five stages of empires and warns about China's economic instability and military expansion.
• Murrin advocates understanding war blindness, lateral thinking, and historical cycles to prevent future conflicts.

Listen Now

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