Arkite Alerts Archive

Image

For those of you who are relatively new to Global Forecaster, I thought it would be interesting to give you a brief overview and perspective of my work over the past two decades and some current views. Curious about the power of AI, I generated these answers using ChatGPT!
 

Question 3 - What are David Murrin’s biggest predictions?

One of his most significant predictions (dating back to 2002) revolves around the decline of Western powers, particularly the United States and Europe, and the simultaneous rise of Eastern powers, primarily China. The themes below form the core of his predictions, often with the message that urgent change is required to avoid or mitigate these outcomes for the Western World.

1. Rising powers and declining empires: Murrin sees the geopolitical landscape as being defined by the rise of China and the relative decline of Western powers, particularly the United States. He believes China is challenging US hegemony and views the conflict between these superpowers as almost inevitable. He compares this to historical cycles where rising powers have often clashed with established ones, leading to war.

1. China’s dominance: He believes China will continue to rise as the dominant global superpower, surpassing the US in military, economic, and geopolitical influence. He warns that China’s ambitions, particularly regarding Taiwan, could increase global tensions, potentially triggering WW3.
2. Decline of the West: Murrin argues that Western democracies, especially the US and Europe, are in terminal decline due to internal divisions, aging populations, and economic stagnation. He predicts that the West's relative power will continue diminishing unless dramatic reforms exist.
3. Cycles of empire: Murrin’s broader theory of cycles suggests that the rise and fall of empires follow predictable patterns. He uses this model to suggest that we are entering a period of upheaval and realignment with the West in decline and Asia on the ascent.

2. WW3 - Decade of conflict ahead: Murrin has been vocal about his belief that the world is on the brink of World War 3. His views are shaped by his study of historical patterns, particularly cycles of conflict and empire expansion. Murrin argues that we are entering a period of global instability driven by several key factors: the global economic system (strained by resource competition) and increased military spending are contributing to rising tensions. He also points to China’s military ambitions and the West's slow response to these challenges as accelerating factors toward a global conflict.

3. Decade of conflict: Murrin forecasts that the 2020s will be marked by escalating geopolitical tensions, which could culminate in a major global war by the mid-2020s. His prediction centres on China’s potential conflict with the US and its allies, as well as other hotspots like the Middle East and Eastern Europe (https://www.davidmurrin.co.uk/blog-entry/ww3-the-world-is-on-the-brink) (https://www.davidmurrin.co.uk/blog-entry/red-lightning-how-the-west-lost-ww3-to-china-in-2025).

Murrin has laid out these views in various forums, including in his book Breaking the Code of History, and numerous interviews, warning that without significant changes in global leadership and strategic adjustments, the world could be drawn into widespread conflict.

Image

If you wish to understand our ever-more entropic world and the unfolding Regional war in the Middle East, and the regional war In Ukraine. We urgently encourage you to subscribe to Murrinations Gold for the price of a newspaper and see the world without those rose-tinted glasses so you can navigate the rapids ahead.

Image

Image

For those of you who are relatively new to Global Forecaster, I thought it would be interesting to give you a brief overview and perspective of my work over the past two decades and some current views. Curious about the power of AI, I generated these answers with the help of ChatGPT!

Question 1 - Who is David Murrin and what is Global Forecaster?

David Murrin is widely regarded as a significant geopolitical and market forecaster, particularly known for his insights into the rise and fall of empires and the prediction of global conflicts. His work, especially through his book Breaking the Code of History and regular forecasts on his website, has earned him recognition in niche circles for his unique, cyclical analysis of global events. The British global forecaster and author is known for his bold predictions of historical and cyclical analysis of geopolitical, financial, and military trends.

He bases his forecasts on a model of human behaviour and cycles driven by his core Theory of Anti-Entropy in Human Systems, which then manifests in the "The Five Stages of Empire" cycle or, when applied to any human system of any magnitude, the 5 Phase Life Cycle. These cycles then interact with The K wave Cycle. These combined theories draw from historical patterns of rise and decline in global empires and are applied to contemporary geopolitics.

Murrin combines this historical framework with his understanding of markets, economics, and warfare to predict, in the largest degree time frames, the unfolding of major shifts in global power, particularly in relation to Western decline and Eastern (especially Chinese) ascent. The same models working in smaller degree time frames accurately predict the outcome of elections and macro market moves to generate significant alpha returns. Murrin’s focus on understanding patterns from the past to predict future geopolitical and market shifts places him among respected analysts. His influence grows in sectors that value long-term historical cycles and complex geopolitical predictions, which have proven very accurate.

Question 2 - What are the strengths of David Murrin’s forecasting?

1. Historical perspective: Murrin’s approach is highly influenced by historical cycles. His view that empires rise and fall in predictable stages allows him to identify trends and emerging dynamics that may be overlooked by conventional analysts focused on short-term factors.

2. Bold visionary predictions: Murrin makes large-scale predictions about global power shifts. He has consistently argued that the West (particularly the US and Europe) is in decline, while nations like China are in an ascendant phase.

3. Impactful comprehensive framework: Murrin is widely respected in the field for his visionary approach to forecasting, especially regarding large, structural geopolitical and economic shifts. His strength lies in identifying macrotrends, particularly concerning the rise and fall of powers, and the cyclical nature of human history. His Five Stages of Empire model is considered innovative and provides a valuable lens through which to view global affairs, making him influential among strategists and analysts looking for long-term trends.

4. Geopolitical focus: Murrin is particularly insightful in analysing geopolitical risks. He often points to under-appreciated threats, such as the potential for conflict between the US and China, or shifts in global energy dynamics, particularly as they relate to resource competition.

Image

If you wish to understand our ever-more entropic world and the unfolding Regional war in the Middle East, and the regional war In Ukraine. We urgently encourage you to subscribe to Murrinations Gold for the price of a newspaper and see the world without those rose-tinted glasses so you can navigate the rapids ahead.

Image

Dear Arkite,

Watch my latest interview with Catherine Cashmore of Land Cycle Investor:

"David is the author of numerous titles, including Breaking the Code of History, in which he expands on the models of empire and human behaviour that have allowed him to make some incredibly accurate forecasts in recent years.

The conversation started with a synopsis of current events. Global riots, the war between Israel and Hamas (Iran's proxy), and why David doesn’t see himself as a warmonger preaching doom – but rather an optimist showing how we can prevent the downfall of the West.

• We move onto recent movements in commodity prices. Where will the opportunities be in the new transition to net zero?
• David gives his excellent insights into the k-wave being an entropic cycle.
• And we finish with a look to the future - including UFOs! Yes, you read that correctly. David is one of the few forecasters I know of (and the smartest) who has researched recently released information on UFOs and is in the process of incorporating it into his analysis of global events. 

All in all, it was a great interview – and I am sure you’ll find the conversation as fascinating as I did."

Image

Watch Now

Image

Image

For those who have been following our Murrinmations on Iran's war against Israel, this should not come as a surprise.

Whilst many are asking what Hezbollah will do after the pager and walkie-talkie detonations

We assess that the probability that the IDF will execute a massive preemptive strike on Hezbollah in Lebonan in the next few days is extremely high.

Mossad must have interdicted the pagers and thus, in all probability, also has tapped into their communications. The fact that the Iranian ambassador to Lebanon was injured suggests that pagers were used for the higher command echelons of Hezbollah. Hence, the loss of high-level intelligence had to be balanced against striking a major blow in a pre-emptive decapitation strike against the Hezbollah command structure that would severely disrupt the command control and communications structure. The follow-on walkie-talkie detonations only confirm that Mossad is executing a brilliant multi-level first-stage strike that is just the beginning of a full-scale war.

The strike's success makes this the ideal time for the IDF to launch a large-scale preemptive strike against the numerous rocket sites that threaten Israel, like the sword of Damocles. Additionally, the US cannot deploy two carrier groups to pin down Iran indefinitely (maximum of two months). Thus we conclude that if the IDF plans to strike Hezbollah with a knockout blow, then it will come over the next few days.

If you wish to stay ahead of the multiple ongoing wars as they escalate, sign up for Murrinations Insights | David Murrin.

Dear Arkite,

Watch my latest interview with Jay Martin where I cover global conflicts, WW3, China, the South China Sea, Immigration, Commodities and more.

"In this episode of The Jay Martin Show, Jay sits down with geopolitical strategist and author David Murrin to delve into the complexities of global conflicts and their far-reaching implications. Murrin, known for his insightful analysis and bold predictions, shares his expertise on various pressing issues, offering a sobering look at the current state of world affairs."

Image

Watch Now!

Image

Image

Dear Arkite,

Britain is in the last phase of   The Most Delusional Election In British History without a single party leader even raising the topic of war in what appears to be blissful ignorance. Such that we have to ask  Can Britain Awake From Its Slumber?

Meanwhile, in America, as explained in Dimensions of American Decline 7, Biden's Weakness is Inviting escalation of its ongoing wars with Russia and now North Korea, and Iran.

Whilst Europe is moving to the Ultra-Right, whose policies potentially support the rise of autocracy.The Western Shift To The Far Right is Epitomised by the New 4th French Revolution

Consequently, we are now warning that the dark angry storm clouds are overhead in the next stage of escalation into a fully blown WW3. A major escalation is now potentially only weeks away. 

Because in every theater of conflict with the Axis of Autocracy, the situation is worsening.

• Iran’s War with Israel After Gaza The IDF Will Next Have to Take On Hezbollah and Iran and Iran’s Imminent Nuclear Breakout and the American Response
• The War in Ukraine is Escalating from a shadow war to an overt war between NATO and Russia. Strategic Bombing Campaigns and The Pendulum Is Swinging Back in Ukraine's Favour. Whilst North Korean combat troops are arriving in Ukraine to dig tunnels.
• China; The tensions over the Scarborough Shoal demonstrate the CCP's intentions supporting   Ten Reasons Why Xi Will Go To War In 2024

For those who follow our work at a distance, can you afford to ignore and understand our accurate predictions, which will allow you to be more aware and prepared?

Now would be a good time to shift up a gear and subscribe to Murrinations and to take a 3-month trial of our Gold Membership to get up to speed on what is coming down the track.

Image

Dear Arkite,

Here's my interview on CNBC Worldwide Exchange from 2010 discussing my book Breaking The Code of History, the Five Stages of Empire, the Fall of the US Empire and loss of its power to the Next Hegemonic Challenger China:

Image

Fall of American Empire "The real disaster is not to recognise where America is, to continue to be unconscious over the collapse of its power base and that only accelerates the loss of power… the expansion of the Chinese Navy and aggression in the South China Sea... the rise of the Renminbi currency...” Watch Now!

Image

Watch Now!

Image

Dear Arkite,

I thought I'd share this article by Daniel Fisher, senior editor at Forbes Magazine from 2011. It highlights some of my predictions from my book Breaking the Code of History written over 20 years ago:

“I’m not joking!” David Murrin says, staring across a table at the Waldorf-Astoria Hotel as he explains why the U.S. is doomed to economic and military decline. “That is not my attitude at all.”

It’s easy to get confused with Murrin, a geophysicist-turned global macro trader who seems to delight in thinking up ways to profit from the decline of the West. Murrin’s U.K. fund, Emergent Asset Management, has bought tens of thousands of acres of African farmland and made aggressive currency bets against the U.S. dollar, in the belief that the industrialized nations will lose the coming war with China for economic and military supremacy.

Murrin has positioned himself to make money on the decline, but he wants everybody to know he doesn’t like it. He speaks quickly, his ideas flowing out in bursts like the commands of the currency trader he once was. He’s even written a book, “Breaking the Code of History,” which explains how the U.S.-led Western empire is following a well-trod path of imperial overreach and decline.

Image

Murrin’s grand theory revolves around the global fight over commodities. Murrin’s a believer in the Kondratieff wave, a roughly 25-year cycle in which populations that are growing both in number and in wealth make increasingly aggressive demands on a limited pool of commodities. That drives up the price and ultimately can lead to devastating wars.

Supercycle believers see patterns in world history that others might ignore. World War I? Germany’s fatal miscalculation that it could dominate England in the quest for resources to feed its growing, young population. The revolutions sweeping the Middle East? An assertive new generation trying to seize control of commodities – particularly oil – that are vital to the rest of the world.

In countries like Iran and Egypt, Murrin says, “you’re bulging at the seams and you need more resources.”

Behind it all is China, which is destined to become the world’s most powerful nation if it continues its current trajectory. There’s no sense in fighting this, Murrin says. “It’s relentless,” he says. The Chinese Navy may have one aircraft carrier to the U.S.’s 20, he says, but that balance will eventually flip. The same thing happened to the U.K. after it developed the Dreadnought, a speedy steel battleship that made the Royal Navy’s existing fleet obsolete. An economically superior Germany copied the design and matched the rebuilding U.K. navy ship for ship.

The falling dollar makes things worse, Murrin adds. When the U.S. economy was growing at a 1% real, or after-inflation rate and China was growing at 6%, both economies were reasonably healthy. Now China’s growing at 9% nominal, 4% real, and exporting its 5% inflation rate back to the U.S. to make for real growth of -1%. That’s stagflation, even if the U.S. refuses to admit it.

“As things start to go bad, you begin to fracture and argue,” Murrin says, perhaps describing the pitched civil war in the U.S. between taxpayers and public-sector unions. China, meanwhile, has a centralized government that may ultimately prove less resilient than a democracy, but is just the ticket during an empire’s commodity-grabbing ascent. Think: Bismarck, Caesar.

The seemingly benign revolutions in the Middle East mark the beginning of the end of the U.S. empire, Murrin says. As a British subject, perhaps he’s a little too captivated by the parallels between the collapse of the Mubarek regime in Egypt and Britain’s failed attempt to maintain control of the Suez Canal some 60 years before. Mubarek’s defeat was “an utter catastrophe for the U.S.,” Murrin asserts, eliminating a vital ally and insuring Israel’s encirclement and defeat by the Arab nations.

Murrin sees a way out of this trap, but it isn’t palatable or even realistic for most Americans to consider. First, the U.S. must make peace with the fact that China will ultimately overpower it militarily. So this currency trader-turned global macro manager’s advice is to cooperate with the Chinese and invite them into the “global structures of power.”

Cede power to China? “You need to, or they’ll take it,” Murrin says.

Next: Default on the U.S. debt. As a country in the late stages of empire, the U.S. piled up more external debt than it can possibly repay. The costs imposed on its own citizens would stifle economic activity and hasten the military decline. “America has to choose to default, so it can do it on its own terms,” Murrin says.

That leads back to the trading strategy: Short the dollar. The greenback is already down 20% since Murrin predicted a 50% decline in the pages of Forbes two years ago and he says it’s headed lower, flight-to-safety upturns be damned. “It’s going to be oversold all the way down,” he says, chuckling.

A parallel bet is to go long the Euro. “It’s a piece of crap, as a concept, but it’s the only way to absorb the outflows from the dollar so it will go up.”

This post is part of an ongoing effort to identify the people, places, ideas, products and companies that are poised to become central to the global conversation over the next six to nine months. Click here to nominate your own “name.” The best will be featured in an upcoming issue of Forbes magazine.

Image

Daniel Fisher is a senior editor at Forbes, covering legal affairs, corporate finance, macroeconomics and the occasional sailing story.

Image

Dear Arkite,

Here's my latest podcast interview with Buddhist podcaster Mahabodhi including discussions on my book Breaking the Code of History, my Five Stages of Empire theory, Kondratiev Waves, China's rise and WW3:

Image

In today's episode Buddhist podcaster Mahabodhi interviews David Murrin global forecaster, investment advisor and author. In 2010 David published Breaking the Code of History, building on the work of the Russian economist Nikolai Kondratiev.

Kondratiev noticed how capitalist economies experienced long-term economic cycles in agricultural commodity and copper prices, lasting about 54-56 years, later termed Kondratiev or long waves. Such cycles, indicated by periods of evolution and self-correction, were brought about by technological innovation that results in a long period of prosperity. Economists have identified the following Kondratiev Waves and their associated technological advances.

1. The first coincided with the invention of the steam engine, which particularly benefitted Great Britain and its advance to empire and ran from 1780 to 1830.
2. The second cycle arose because of the steel industry and the spread of railroads that ran from 1830 to 1880.
3. The third cycle, which ran from 1880 to 1930, resulted from electrification and innovation in the chemical industry, which benefitted the German Empire.
4. The fourth cycle was fueled by autos and petrochemicals and lasted from 1930 to 1970.
5. The fifth cycle was based on advanced manufacturing and information technology and began in 1970 and ran through the present and flows into quantum computing and AI, benefiting China. 

Image

Kondratiev's views were anathema to Josef Stalin, because they suggested that capitalist nations were not on an inevitable path to destruction; he ended up in the Gulag in Siberia and was shot by a firing squad in 1938. (https://www.investopedia.com/terms/k/...)

David trained as a physicist then worked in Wall Street. After 9/11 he developed the theory that every empire passes through five stages, that certain types of war correlate with those stages, and that major wars usually manifest just before peaks in the Kondratiev cycle. As a result he thinks, unfortunately, that we are already in World War Three and he offers how we might best respond to the fact.

Watch Now!

Image

Dear Arkite,

Here's my talk on Gargour's Global Gaze running you through how we got to where we are now, the reasons behind the current state of play and what's next:

Guest speaker David Murrin, on Gargour's Global Gaze, discusses political and economic events in 'Are We At War?". Forecasts for Gold, Bitcoin, Stocks, Bonds and a deep dive on China and the upcoming conflict in the Middle East.

Image

Watch Now!

Image