Creating Actionable Strategies For The Future
Welcome to the archive of Arkite Alerts, Global Forecaster's free newsletter notifying subscribers of the latest news, podcasts, interviews, Global Trader performance reviews and more.
Dear Arkite,
My latest wide ranging interview with North Star Bad Charts is now available to watch, covering Breaking The Code Of History, Russia and China's threat to the west, empire cycles, US decline, financial dislocation / 1929 squared, the Wuhan virus and lock down failures, Kondratiev wave theory and much more.
Dear Arkite,
You can now watch my latest podcast with Tom of Palisades Gold Radio, where I discuss American Hegemony, Lateral Vs. Linear, Kondratieff Cycles, Dollar Outflows & Rates, Doomsday Bubble, Commodities & Inflation, China Vs. U.S. Debt and lots more besides:
Tom welcomes back global forecaster and author David Murrin. David believes there is a risk of significant conflict in the Asian region including Korea and Taiwan. China is gaining knowledge of war and the usefulness of drone technology. The West is essentially at war with Russia, but the level of collective delusion from Western leaders is concerning.
The United States has been in decline since the beginning of this century. We’re seeing more liberal policies, and we’re seeing things unravel socially and politically.
David discusses how China has shifted policy to become independent from the West. The consequences could be severe because the West is far behind in manufacturing. China is trying to become a consumer nation, and currently, they are using excess manufacturing capacity for consumer goods and weapons.
David explains the differences between lateral and linear ways of thinking. We’ve had an abundance of linear thinkers who is less flexible but useful in times of stability. The truth is the West is declining because of this linear takeover of thought. What is needed today is greater understanding. The West’s institutions are dominated by linear thinkers whereas China is thinking laterally. Britain is the only country that has a chance of becoming more lateral soon.
The world of finance is dominated by linear thinkers, and we see how that approach is working with inflation.
Kondratieff cycles are composed of 52-year cycles that move from peak to bottom over 26 years. This cycle started around 2000, and he believes a collapse in demand is imminent . Equities will be chewed up, and the next phase will be more inflation and higher commodities. There will be a pause with inflation followed by another surge. He believes hyperinflation is in the cards. Whatever has worked for the past twenty years is unlikely to do so in an era of money printing.
He believes the dollar will sell off and enter a final declining cycle. The dollar is going to lose favor against the Euro in a profound way as capital flees.
There are numerous problems with commodities and a lack of capital investment in the sector. Europe needs to do far more to manage its energy resources. They haven’t taken a strategic view of energy, and now they face the consequences.
We’re looking at a collapse of a magnitude that is hard to comprehend as a hundred years of policies correct.
He explains the differences between the debts of the United States and China. The U.S. is far more vulnerable than China as China has invested in actual production capacity.
Lastly, he explains the psychology of markets and the importance of price. Investors need to analyze both their successes and failures because they may have just gotten lucky.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
1:19 – American Hegemony
4:56 – Eastern Planning
7:14 – Economic Consequences
10:36 – Lateral Vs. Linear
15:47 – Kondratieff Cycles
21:18 – Alpha & Beta Models
25:24 – Dollar Outflows & Rates
29:42 – Resource Underinvestment
31:26 – Doomsday Bubble
34:45 – Debt Jubilee?
40:00 – Commodities & Inflation
41:24 – China Vs. U.S. Debt
43:25 – Protecting Yourself
44:50 – Market Psychology
50:33 – Thinking Clearly
53:05 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Dear Arkite,
Today I'm launching a new campaign, one that is at the core of the change required to navigate a nation or organisation through these difficult waters ahead. The Adaptation Through Lateralisation campaign:
1.0 Infusing Lateral Thinking, To Survive Entropic Waves
The above image is the imposing picture of The Great Wave (Kanagawa Oki Nami Ura) which is the best-known work by Japanese artist Hokusai Katsushika (1760–1849), one of the greatest Japanese book illustrators. The image epitomises the power and impact of a tidal wave as an entropic event on the ships, struggling to survive. Natural entropic events that could impact human systems are meteorite strikes, earthquakes, weather events and disease. Human entropic challenges derive from the competition from other human systems that in extreme situations begat wars. Our theory of Anti-Entropy in Human Systems describes how humanity has evolved survival mechanisms to overcome these challenges...
Dear Arkite,
My latest video is now online to view, which is a lecture I recently gave for the Foundation for the Study of Cycles:
"The presentation for the Foundation for the Study of Cycles features concepts contained in David Murrin’s next book “Breaking the Code of War”, understanding and predicting wars."
This lecture replicates a speech given called BREAKING THE CODE OF WARS - DEFENCE ACADEMY OF THE UNITED KINGDOM for the higher command course to 50 one-star Generals about to move into command.
Dear Arkite,
My latest interview is online to view, where I join Dan Astin-Gregory of the Elevate podcast, an audio and video show designed to elevate humanity and enrich the world.
"With growing geopolitical tensions, inflation out of control and a rapidly accelerating downward economic spiral many are rightly concerned for our future.
To address these issues I am joined by David Murrin, founder of Global Forecaster, who is renowned for the development of unique human behavioural and economic models. when combined with a geopolitical overlay, have a most impressive track record at predicting economic and political outcomes.
In this interview, we cover David's “Five Stages of Empire” model and the dramatic ramifications, including the growing risks of a World War in the next 5 years as conflict escalates and empires collide.
Whilst it may all sound doom and gloom, our hope is that by making more informed choices, we can avoid destructive cycles and create positive and actionable strategies for the future."
Dear Arkite,
My latest interview, with Southbank Investment Research, is available to view on the website:
"Boaz Shoshan (Southbank Investment Research) hosts David Murrin on tonight’s episode of Southbank Live – the interactive money show for UK investors.
David is an acclaimed economic and geopolitical forecaster.
His career spans founding JP Morgan’s European Market Analysis Group, building and selling hedge funds, and developing frameworks to predict human behaviour – from which he’s authored four books.
David can really help open your eyes to the impact of geopolitics on financial markets, and is able to give insights many money experts can’t.
Everything from Brexit, the Ukraine war, and markets at all-time highs, to the impact of lateral vs linear thinking from governments – David can help make sense of our world and its ever-expanding complexities."
Dear Arkite,
This update is for all professional Asset Managers with an eye on the geopolitical and global economic situation at hand. Below is an excerpt from the latest Global Trader Q1 2022 Performance Review, which can be read in full here:
If we described the last quarter as another excellent result, then Q1 2022 knocked the ball out of the park with our geopolitical calls predicting Putin's invasion of Ukraine and the rampant inflation and its impact on economies and markets. Those calls translated into some huge alpha extraction in Equity indices and shares, the Yen's decline, the precious metals and the fall of the Ruble, which we exited at the lows. We strongly recommend that our subscribers take the time to read this analysis of our performance to enhance their understanding our how we consistently extract alpha from the markets.
Q1 2022 PERFORMANCE REVIEW CONTENTS
1. Global Forecaster introduction
2. Our main Q1 2022 geopolitical calls
3. Q3 market predictions and performance
4. Alpha Capture funds and their performance
1.0 GLOBAL FORECASTER TRADE RECOMMENDATIONS AND RISK METHODOLOGY
Global Forecaster was set up in the summer of 2019 to inform and advise professional asset managers through troubled waters. During that year, there were obvious indicators that global markets were soon to peak (in February 2020) and collapse with the most grievous consequences. We have called this transition The Great Shift as it is driven by the intersection of the peak of the K wave cycle and hegemonic challenge of China to America and the West.
We now have 11 quarters of performance under our belt, and the results of our geopolitical predictions, market predictions and Alpha Capture fund performances have been exceptional. We believe the key to high returns and long-term success is based on:
1. Prescient market views generated within a systematic multi-timeframe and price modelling system
2. Good trade entry points with tight and structurally meaningful stops (entered with contrarian price modelling)
3. Appropriate position sizing
4. Risk management following the progression of a trend
5. Successful trade exit points.
These key five points describe Global Forecaster’s risk methodology. By reading the below quarterly performance appraisal, you will have a better idea of how we apply our risk allocation methodology, as well as how we combine geopolitical predictions using various models from Breaking The Code Of History. All of these real-time predictions have been published on the Global Forecaster website and are available to our clients.
Dear Arkite,
Thank you for joining our Global Forecaster site. Following a number of requests for more information on our financial predictions, I have the pleasure to enclose some details below.
“David, your fully integrated work combining global geopolitical historical perspective, overlaid with a keen understanding of the inner working of financial markets, provides a level of wisdom that is rare. The quality and depth of research is invaluable to leaders across the political, corporate and investment disciplines.”
Satish Rai - Chief Investment Officer OMERS Pension Fund Canada
“Quite often, those of us continuously trading in the markets tend to get lost in the noise and pay less attention to the major geopolitical issues that will shape the global economy for years to come. These geopolitical transformations are happening now. David is there to help you bring these issues into focus and help you think outside the box. We've had numerous in-depth discussions on how these transformations will impact not only our portfolios but our lives in general.”
Antonino Fortes Senior Portfollio manager
1. Arkent Macro Scenario Updates – provides our real-time macro market strategies. These integrate all the elements of our geopolitical perspectives (Murrinations Insights) and market views into one coherent strategy and perspective. Annual subscription of £1,500 plus VAT per month.
View Subscription Options
2. Individual Macro Market Forecasts – this service provides specific recommendations in the market sectors outlined below, with entry points and stops and recommended sizes relating to our evaluation of the quality of the trade. The global market sectors are Equity Indices, FX and Crypto Currencies, Bond Markets, Emerging Market FX and Indices and Commodity Markets.
View Subscription Options
3. The Premium Strategist Package – includes Murrinations Insights, Arkent Macro Scenario Updates and one Individual Macro Market Analysis sector.
View Subscription Options
4. The Global Macro Package – includes Murrinations Insights, Arkent Macro Scenario Updates and Individual Macro Market Analysis and Forecasts for £5,000 per month. In addition, advisory packages are available on request.
View Subscription Options
5. Personalised Consulting – We also offer higher levels of engagement to senior risk-takers and C-Suite executives, to maximise their outcomes. Price by agreement. Engage David
For further information please view our website. Once you have reviewed our services please click on one of the above links to subscribe or if you have further questions please contact me on david@davidmurrin.co.uk
I will then send you further information to help you understand how sharing our knowledge can empower you.
Dear Arkite,
My latest podcast, for the Independent Research Forum, is now available to watch:
David Osman of the IRF is joined by David Murrin, founder of Global Forecaster, renowned for the development of unique and effective behavioural models that predict financial markets.
David discusses the importance of the Kondratiev K wave commodity super-cycle to the outlook for inflation and other financial markets. He explains the implications of the K wave for his “Five Stages of Empire” model and the dramatic ramifications, including the growing risks of World War III in the next 5 years as empires collide in an increasingly bi-polar world.
Read my latest insights:
The Sinking of The Moskva Exposes UK MOD's Poor Strategic Thinking
Could Le Pen End The Reign Of The Putin Whisper?
Infusing Lateral Thinking To Survive The Entropic Waves Ahead
Subscribe now for immediate access to all my posts! I now offer a 1 month trial costing £50, giving you instant access to my latest insights.
Read the newspapers for yesterday's news or read my Murrinations Insights for future trends and strategies.
Feedback:
“I have worked through your well-written and disturbing book “Breaking the Code of History”. I am in broad agreement with what you have written and think the book makes a great contribution towards understanding the past and the present better, thus laying a sound foundation for preparing for the future.”
Former President FW de Klerk
"David Murrin dazzles us with the scope of his learning, the depths of his experience and the vigour of his enthusiasms; all are lit with the gleam of his focus. His book is closely and tirelessly argued and superbly and relevantly illustrated, whilst his analysis is lucid and vivid. Murrin warns of the dangers ahead if the human race fails to deal with the consequences of our systematic self-destructive behaviour. This is a book that each of us should read and learn from."
Rear Admiral Richard Cobbold Director of the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI)
Wishing you all stay well.
Warmest Wishes
David
Arkite: the name derived from my Arkent Strategy to navigate, survive and thrive through the great shift.
Dear Arkite,
My latest webinar, When Empires Fall: Lessons From History, is now available to watch:
"This session is brought to you by CFA UK’s Fixed Income special interest group.
We are potentially seeing the end of the US hegemony and the dollar. The philosopher George Santana once said “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it”. The lessons from history are often ignored in modern economic and financial analysis.
In this webinar former trader, hedge fund manager and author David Murrin draws on his research in Breaking the Code of History to explain why he believes we are seeing decline of both the United States and Europe, why covid and the Ukraine has likely accelerated this, and we are about to enter a much more volatile and dangerous world."
Read my latest insights:
Infusing Lateral Thinking To Survive The Entropic Waves Ahead
The Battle For Ukraine 8: Victory Beckons in Putin's Campaign In The East
Hypersonic Missiles And The Hegemonic Arms Race
Subscribe now for immediate access to all my posts! I now offer a 1 month trial costing £50, giving you instant access to my latest insights.
Read the newspapers for yesterday's news or read my Murrinations Insights for future trends and strategies.
Feedback:
“I have worked through your well-written and disturbing book “Breaking the Code of History”. I am in broad agreement with what you have written and think the book makes a great contribution towards understanding the past and the present better, thus laying a sound foundation for preparing for the future.”
Former President FW de Klerk
"David Murrin dazzles us with the scope of his learning, the depths of his experience and the vigour of his enthusiasms; all are lit with the gleam of his focus. His book is closely and tirelessly argued and superbly and relevantly illustrated, whilst his analysis is lucid and vivid. Murrin warns of the dangers ahead if the human race fails to deal with the consequences of our systematic self-destructive behaviour. This is a book that each of us should read and learn from."
Rear Admiral Richard Cobbold Director of the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI)
Wishing you all stay well.
Warmest Wishes
David
Arkite: the name derived from my Arkent Strategy to navigate, survive and thrive through the great shift.
I aim to provide early warnings of geopolitical and economic shifts, allowing leaders and the public to anticipate and navigate critical inflection points.
Historical patterns leading to WW1 and WW2 and our unique behavioural models all point to the fact WW3 has already started!
Trump's recent ceasefire with Iran is more a product of personal ambition than strategic foresight. After months of fruitless negotiations and late military responses, Trump sought a swift and public victory.
Why Subscribe?
This service is designed to provide long-term and medium-term investment outlooks in a range of markets from equity indices, bonds, Fx, emerging markets and commodities. Be the first to gain David's up-to-date market news, views and analysis.
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