David Murrin is a Future Trends speaker. He has an Honours degree in Geophysics from Exeter University. He started his career in the oil exploration business in the jungles of Papua New Guinea where he worked for almost three years. Since then he has spent the past 25 years in the world of financial markets. From 1986 to 1993 he worked as a trader with JP Morgan. From the outset he noticed many similarities between the collective behaviour of the tribespeople of Papua New Guinea and the traders at JP Morgan.
In 1993 David founded Apollo Asset Management, and in 1997 he co-founded Emergent Asset Management as Chief Investment Officer until 2011. He co-founded Emvest, Emergent’s African land fund in 2008 and acted as its Chairman until its sale from the group in 2011. He took full control of Emergent in 2011, combining his management of the Geomacro fund with the role of Chief Executive Officer. He is also an investor in renewable technology and the agritech sector.
Projecting Futures In Today’s Turbulent Times
David has been described as a polymath and his career of more than three decades has been focussed on finding and understanding collective human behavioural patterns and then using them to project futures in today’s turbulent times. He has a remarkable track record, which has led to his success as a future trends speaker. He follows Winston Churchill’s maxim “The farther back you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see.”
David has combined his fascination with military history, geopolitics and finance into a unified geopolitical model, published in “Breaking the Code of History” in 2011. This book highlights the key factors in today's changing world, as power shifts from the West to the East. His central idea is the Five Phase Life Cycle of Empire, which analyses and “decodes” the rise and fall of empires throughout history, from the Roman Empire right through to the rise of China today. He also points out the many factors that influence the rise and fall of regions and countries, including demographics, climate change and its impact on scarce resources, and technology.
The Geopolitics of Commodity Prices
David’s analysis of these external influences that affect regions and countries is also valid at a company level. The Five Phase Life Cycle applies to the individual, to teams and to companies. Is a company showing the energy, ambition and confidence of the growth phase, is it showing the maturity and stability of the third stage, or is it in decline? What can we do about this?
As well as a future trends speakers, David’s work naturally leads to a study of leadership and how change is created. He promotes the concept of Leadership as Service. “One of the key roles of leadership is to provide the vision for the future to move the group or nation from one place to another of safety that enhances collective wellbeing.”
Geopolitics and Economics
- The Future of the Global Economy
- The Rise of China and the Asian Economies
- The New Arms Race
- The American Empire in the 21st Century
- The Future for Britain and the European Union
- Demography and Climate Change
Business and Leadership
- Left Brain Right Brain companies – which are more agile and responsive to change?
- The Life Cycle of a Business
- Technology and the Rise of the Machines
- Iconic leadership - The Nature of Effective Leadership
David Murrins’s mission statement:
Having studied geophysics, I spent three years working in Papua New Guinea. My journey took me from Papua New Guinea to the trading floor of JP Morgan. It helped me to recognise the similarities in behaviour between the two groups, and taught me that human beings share emotions collectively and behave en masse. That was the beginning of my fascination with predicting human behaviour based on their unconscious collective thoughts and actions.
It led to the creation of the Five Stages of Empire Model, which I now call the Five Phases of Life Cycle Model, because it applies to the individuals, to companies, to countries, to teams. Indeed It is everywhere in human society.
It is clear that mankind is facing one of the greatest power shifts it has seen for centuries - the shift of power for West to East, the development of automation and AI coupled with climate change. We have to navigate through this multitude of challenges safely without a global war. The knowledge as to how we do that is important for our politicians and our leaders to understand, and therefore we must understand it.
Social models are the basis of my work. I share them so people can be better informed, ask more and seek more from our leaders and create a better environment for society in times that are more challenging for the whole of mankind than ever before.
David did such an amazing job delivering a keynote speech opening up the Future of Mining Forum event in London. David gave a very thought-provoking speech which kept the audience on the edge of their seats throughout the whole presentation.
Natalia Egorova - Natural Resources Forum
Really interesting and thought-provoking • Great vision and presentation skills • Sensible thought-provoking well done • Controversial but good. strong Brexit views • A lot of food for thought • Refreshingly different albeit slightly scary predictions! • A man with a similar view of the world delighted to see I am not the only one • Excellent
Citywire Income Forum Audience feedback 85.6%
I thought the session was excellent. David was a very good speaker and slightly provocative which made a great change from a lot of our events.
Peter Beckett, Partner, KPMG LLP (UK)