Arkite Alerts Archive

Dear Arkite,

"In this interview with geopolitical forecaster David Murrin, we discuss Breaking the Spell of Denial – how individuals and businesses can face reality, create a strategy for survival and stay grounded and optimistic in times of crisis and global conflict."

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Dear Arkite,

If you do not wish to be a sheep with a box on your head, subscribe to my Murrinations Insights and find out what is really happening In the big bad world!

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Read David's Murrinations Insights in full on the website, predictions, strategy and analysis, covering the latest significant financial, geopolitical and environmental developments around the world. Insights are published on average twice a week. 

I am pleased to add some brief comments concerning David’s remarkable output via his regular and frequent Murrinations postings and other pieces covering inter alia the First World War, Covid and the Chinese question and a one man UK defence Review. Further whilst producing this prodigious output of facts, information and observations David somehow manages and advises on global investment strategy.

It is David’s deep study and knowledge of history that informs many of his views and judgements on geopolitical issues of the day and in the future. I would strongly advise more people to read David’s works. Frankly I would sleep easier if I could be confident that senior politicians and the MOD’s top brass from all services were among David Murrin’s readership. You may not be sympathetic to every view expressed but it is a learning experience to consider them.

Jonathan Perry - Chartered Accountant, 22 year Merchant Banker, Chairman of a PLC for 15 years until retirement

A subscription will give you instant online access, as opposed to a 6 month delay for non-subscribers. A 3 month trial subscription costs £150, 6 months £300 and 12 months £480. Subscribe Now.

Dear Arkite,

Catherine Cashmore, of Cycles, Trends & Forecasts, invited me back for a Q&A session, which you can watch here:

"As promised, I put your questions to David Murrin last week in our second interview for Cycles, Trends & Forecasts. He was delighted to get such an enthusiastic response, and I think you’ll find the content extremely interesting. We discussed, in brief, some events that have taken place in recent weeks — including the discovery of Chinese spy balloons over the USA. We then got straight to your questions."

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Dear Arkite,

My latest interview is available to watch, where I talk to Adz about the theories behind Breaking The Code Of History, Churchill, quantum mechanics, Chinese philosophy, empires, parenting, Admiral Nelson, wokeism, 9/11, linear/lateral thinking, WWI, WWII, WWIII, Brexit, Roswell, Reagan, Trump, Obama and more!

"Global Forecaster David Murrin talks to Adz about the truth; how he is able to successfully predict EVERY SINGLE election result, pandemic or world war without fail."

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Dear Arkite,

My latest interview for Southbank Investment Research is available to watch now, where I discuss the energy crisis and WW3:

"Global forecaster David Murrin simply wasn’t interested in discussing his latest energy crisis predictions. Even if they’d just been vindicated, again. Instead, he kept on circling back to one single issue: why World War III could be imminent. I’m sure that sounds fantastical and not particularly relevant to investors. That is why I had intended to interview David about energy markets instead. But, as you’ll see in this video, we are hurtling down the road of escalation towards something that is predictable and crucial for investors to understand…"

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Watch the interview in full

Dear Arkite,

My interview with Catherine Cashmore, of Land Cycle Investor, is available to watch now. I chat about what I see ahead in terms of the potential of a third world war, my books Breaking The Code Of History, Lions Led By Lions, Red Lightning, Australia's dependency on exports to China and where I think we should hide and store our cash at the peak of the Kondratiev wave. 

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Dear Arkite,

Here's my latest interview with North Star Bad Charts covering global bifurcation, Russia and China's threat to the west, inflation, Germany's weakness and empire cycles.

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Dear Arkite,

I continue my conversation on Palisades Gold Radio by discussing which commodities will be highly strategic. I believe all the metals are set to take off along with oil.

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"David discusses the role of commodities in the conflicts of the world and how governments should move towards a hybrid market command system in order to secure essential resources and protect their economies. He also talks about the collapse of real wealth due to inflationary dynamics and asset price depreciation, as well as the devaluation of the dollar due to the money printing of central banks. He argues that the only lever central banks have to fight inflation is to raise rates, but this could have a crushing effect on markets and people's wealth.

David discusses various geopolitical themes to watch for in the coming year, such as the Taiwan conflict, the Biden presidency, and inflation. David predicts that China may make a move soon and that the US, Japan, and South Korea would be the targets of a possible preemptive strike. He believes that Russia does not have the ability to mount an effective offensive in Ukraine and the Allies in NATO are prepared to back a Ukrainian victory. David also talks about the importance of being prepared for surprises and adapting to changing conditions. Finally, he reflects on the human desire to fight, noting that warfare can bring people together for a common cause."

0:00 - Intro
0:24 - Strategic Commodities
3:49 - China & Supply Chains
7:14 - Real Wealth Collapse
9:05 - Dollar & Devaluation
11:50 - Inflation Path & Rates
14:37 - Gold the Anti-Entropic
19:04 - Metals & Mining Stocks
23:02 - Geopolitical Themes
29:40 - Change & Perspective
37:03 - Wrap Up

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Dear Arkite,

My interview on the Independent Research Forum (IRF) podcast, back in April of last year, covers a lot of interesting topics relevant to the state of markets and geopolitics today.

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David Osman of the IRF is joined by David Murrin, the Founder of Global Forecaster who is renowned for the development of unique and effective behavioural models, which when combined with a geopolitical overlay have a most impressive track record at predicting financial markets. David has also authored the highly acclaimed book, Breaking The Code of History, which has striking parallels with the work of Ray Dalio. 

David discusses the importance of the Kondratiev Wave commodity super-cycle on the outlook for inflation and other financial markets. He explains the implications of the K Wave for his “Five Stages of Empire” model and the dramatic ramifications, including the growing risks of a World War in the next five years as empires collide. 

He believes we have entered the doomsday bubble with the stock market peaking in November last year and now on a rapidly accelerating downward spiral with inflation out of control and the Fed out of levers to fight back. Meanwhile expect Putin to take over Ukraine and move towards occupying a NATO country whilst China will go for Taiwan and South Korea. The world is entering a key juncture, investors should be prepared for the worst!

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Dear Arkite,

My interview on the Palisades Gold Radio podcast is out and can be viewed online:

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Tom Bodrovics interviews global forecaster and author David Murrin on the topic of the road to war being peppered with polarization. Murrin explains that the human strategy for survival is through social structures, and that wars between a weaker system and a rising system are necessary to create a better outcome. He also explains that war is regulated by the Kondratiev cycle which takes place every 56 years. He then talks about how China is seen as the primary polarizer, with America as the secondary polarizer. He then moves on to discussing Germany and how it has not yet responded with secondary polarization. He believes that Germany's reunification with East Germany was a reverse takeover, and that Germany has been subverted by Putin. Murrin then talks about the UK's response to Russia, and how misguided it is to not be increasing defense spending while at war with Russia. He says that the UK needs to be spending 5% of its budget on defense until the threat of China and Russia is abated.

David discusses the importance of lateral thinking, particularly in times of war. He posits that dyslexia and lateral thinking are key qualities that can provide game-winning strategies and are underutilized in the Western world. He explains the concepts of hunter-gatherers and agrarianism, pointing out that when the Western world is in decline, there is a disproportionate number of linear leaders who aren't able to adapt. He then moves on to discuss his five stages of empire model, which is a construct to explain human social systems, and the Kondratiev cycle. Central banks have been unable to predict and manage inflation due to their linear thinking. He argues that the current wave of inflation is likely to lead to further escalation of wars and that China's need for commodities will drive its agenda.

Time Stamp References:

0:00 - Introduction
0:37 - Polarization & War
6:07 - Germany's Response
15:30 - Political Oscillations
16:53 - Stages of (Empire) Decline
27:46 - Disordered Thinkers
35:49 - Commodity Cycles

Talking Points From This Episode

• David Murrin discusses the Kondratiev cycle, which takes place every 56 years and regulates war.
• According to Murrin, dyslexia and lateral thinking are key qualities that can provide game-winning strategies and are underutilized in the Western world.
• Murrin explains how war is often linked to commodities and how central banks have been unable to predict and manage inflation due to linear thinking.

Watch part 1 now