Arkite Alerts Archive

Welcome to the archive of Arkite Alerts, Global Forecaster's free newsletter notifying subscribers of the latest news, podcasts, interviews, Global Trader performance reviews and more.

Arkite: the name derived from my Arkent Strategy to navigate, survive and thrive through the great shift.

Podcast: Taiwan, Ukraine and Sino-Russian Relations

Dear Arkite,

My latest podcast episode, Taiwan, Ukraine and Sino-Russian Relations, is available to listen to online or via your podcast app on your mobile. In this episode, Winston and I briefly go over the changing situation of Ukraine as well as future predictions for that conflict. The main topic of discussion, however, is Taiwan and the possibilities of conflict in the Pacific Basin between it and China, as well as the political consequences of such a conflict for the wider region. Finally, Winston and I examine the strengthening ties between China and Russia and the repercussions of this close relationship on the West.

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the state of it

 

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GLOBAL FORCASTER and GLOBAL TRADER Q3 2022 PERFORMANCE REVIEW – RECORD RETURNS AGAIN

GLOBAL FORECASTER -THE NIGHTMARE ‘DON’T LOOK UP’ YEAR

 

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2022

We predicted from the outset that 2022 would be a tumultuous year as the K wave crisis took hold, impacting through wars, inflation, energy and food security challenges, with growing political unrest. All of which have come to pass and never have our geopolitical predictive models been more in tune with the unfolding reality and entropic shocks.-Subscribe

 

GLOBAL ; TRADER -TOP 20 PERFORMING MARKETS OVER PAST 36 MONTHS

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TOP 20

 

Q3 continued to produce exceptional overall alpha extraction, with the highest returns coming from the bond markets (T Notes and Bunds) which as a result are now in the top 4. To achieve that we were initially long and then reversed our position to being short at the top of the correction, we then ran our maximum size short positions into the lows at the end of the quarter. In equities we maintained our maximum short positions through the quarter's squeeze and into the lows at quarter end. Similarly we maintained our shorts across the crypto sector and in EM equities and EM currencies, producing solid results across these sectors.

In the commodity sector we initially traded from the short side as wave 2 unfolded, driven by demand contraction, which saw a fall in prices (oil from $130 to $74). Then at the end of the quarter we reversed into long positions. With respect to the dollar we maintained the view that it was near the peak of an extreme rally linked to interest rates differentials and repatriation of capital (to meet bond and equity margin calls), making this our worst performing sector.

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market outlooks

HOW TO AVOID A SHIPWRECK

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GF

Please, make it your mission to spread this message to all who you know. It is still possible to change our future, not by using conventional, linear thinking, but by harnessing the past lessons of humanity and applying them to today's challenges with strength, courage, knowledge and wisdom. The alternative is a metaphoric shipwreck of gargantuan proportions. View all Subscription Levels

SHIPWRECKS AND THE AFFAIRS OF MEN

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Shipwrecks

As a lifetime sailor, I am well aware of the entropic nature of the sea and how benign situations can quickly turn into disasters, unless swift and decisive action is taken. To remind me of this, I have a favourite book on shipwrecks, the cover of which is shown above. A book that I commend to you all, which is filled with photos taken by the Gibson family of numerous shipwrecks off the inhospitable shores of the Isles of Scilly and Cornwall.

The numerous and haunting images of stranded ships remind me that at sea, as in life, one moment all is well and the next, with a huge crunch the ship becomes grounded and the destruction begins. Such is the nature of the entropic universe that we exist within.

I often wonder what mistakes were made in the run-up to each shipwreck, and the dynamics of the captain and officers. They might have been having a heated dialogue just before the impact, or if caught in the fog would have been in a heightened state of alertness but oblivious of the impending disaster, right up to the moment when it happened.

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S12
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S13

But today it's different – or is it?

Of course, modern technologies have significantly reduced the risk of shipwrecks occurring, with GPS positioning and radars. But when it comes to navigating the course of nations and the cycles of empires, humanity is still groping around in the fog whilst in the proximity of rocky shores.

Global Forecaster was created following the discovery that human social systems were subject to clear cycles, as outlined in Breaking the Code of History. The vision was to provide a kind of GPS and radar for our present and future decisions. However, as the world moves towards a dire moment, that knowledge of collective self awareness seems not yet to have influenced our course. Thus today mankind is speeding towards its catastrophe or conscious moment.

As such, I ask you to spread the word to your friends and work compatriots to read our Theories and Murrinations, which have proven frighteningly prescient as you can see from the list of predictions listed below that have come to pass. We believe we have broken the code of unconscious collective human behaviour enabling the conscious use of these patterns to navigate through the extremely volatile times ahead. 

So please, make it your mission to spread this message to all who you know. It is still possible to change our future, not by using conventional, linear thinking, but by harnessing the past lessons of humanity and applying them to today's challenges with strength, courage, knowledge and wisdom. The alternative is a metaphoric shipwreck of gargantuan proportions. View all Subscription Levels

Imagine If you had known in advance,

  • The results of the last five US elections, as well as the next one?
  • The results of all the UK elections in the past 12 years and That Boris Johnson would not last his full term in office and Truss would replace him?
  • The arrival and end of the Covid pandemic years and months ahead of others?
  • The start of the Ukraine war 6 months before the invasion?
  • That commodities had entered a period of super price inflation from the 2020 low, and are soon about to resume that trend after a predictable demand contraction price dip.
  • The exact high of the US markets/NASDAQ just before thanksgiving in 2021 was the place to sell all long positions and put on a maximum sized short equity positions
  • That the Thanksgiving High in 2021 in the US markets would stand for at least a decade as the Doomsday bubble collapsed equity markets some 80%
  • That rise of Inflation would be secular and not temporary 12 months ago?
  • That the highs of inflation would exceed the peak of 1975 by a multiple of at least 2X
  • That the Bond Markets would fall precipitously in 2022 and interest rates would keep rising, collapsing the leveraged structure across Western economies
  • That the tide in Ukraine had turned against Putin in July 2022, and the collapse of Russia Army would risk a nuclear weapons release

All past predictions

Subscriptions 

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GF

 

 

Webinar: Geopolitics and the Shifting World Order with David Murrin

Dear Arkite,

You can view my latest webinar, Geopolitics and the Shifting World Order with David Murrin now! brought to you by Portal Asset Management.

"Join us for a discussion on the global macroeconomic outlook with David Murrin, the bestselling author and founder of Global Forecaster. Topics to be covered in the discussion on geopolitics and the economic outlook, as well as the rise of China and the New Arms Race with consideration of the American Empire in the 21st Century alongside the West. We will also touch on Demographic shifts and Climate Change and how to best navigate the global financial markets."

The supplied file is missing my introduction but otherwise the full discussion is available to view.

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portal podcast

You can also listen to my latest podcast, Ukraine: What's The Situation? where Winston and I pay a visit once more to the pressing topic of Ukraine. The situation on the ground in Ukraine at the time of publication is discussed, as is the position of President Putin in his political stronghold. Winston and I also go over the importance, and danger, of tactical nuclear weapons and their possible role in the future of the conflict.

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The State of It podcast

 

Listen Now

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Our World On The Edge seminar/webinar

 

More information on the seminar

Podcast: Ukraine: What's The Situation?

Dear Arkite,

In the first podcast episode of the new season, Ukraine: What's The Situation?, Winston and I pay a visit once more to the pressing topic of Ukraine. The situation on the ground in Ukraine at the time of publication is discussed, as is the position of President Putin in his political stronghold. Winston and I also go over the importance, and danger, of tactical nuclear weapons and their possible role in the future of the conflict.

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The State of It podcast

 

Listen Now

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Our World On The Edge seminar/webinar

 

More information on the seminar

Global Forecaster Seminar / Webinar: Our World On The Edge

Dear Arkite,

I've exciting news to tell you about, the very first Global Forecaster seminar/webinar titled Our World On The Edge! It's happening in just over a month's time, 3-4 October 2022, and not only can you be there in person, but for those who can't attend we will also be streaming a live online webinar of the event!

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Our World On The Edge seminar/webinar

A seminar that will change your worldview. Designed to pass on our highly predictive models of human behaviour in the world of markets and geopolitics. The goal is to empower you with an understanding of our geopolitical and market theories, whilst imparting our most current views on the world and where it is going. The sessions will be an interactive learning process, rather than a series of lectures, designed to challenge your thought process. To empower you to better understand the world and predict and take advantage of the unpredictable.

DAY 1 

Understanding and Predicting Macro Geopolitics and Events

Morning - Understanding our Key theories

  • Anti Entropy in Human Systems
  • Human Collective Systems
  • Dyslexic Strategic Thinking
  • 5 Phase Life Cycle
  • K Wave Commodity Cycle
  • Polarisation: The Road to War
  • The Theory Of Warfare

Background reading ahead of the event: The Genesis And Predictive Power Of Breaking The Code Of History and All Theories

Afternoon - Application of these theories to predict the paths of:

  1. The decade of catastrophe or consciousness
  2. America
  3. Europe
  4. Global Britain
  5. Russia
  6. China / Japan / India
  7. The EM world.
  8. Oncoming major entropic events-wars, climate change, food security.
  9. Evaluation of global leadership dynamics

DAY 2 

Understanding and Predicting Markets

Morning

  • Introduction to Global Forecasters risk methodology
  • Market modelling and alpha generation results
  • Understanding our key theories including your inner decision processes

Afternoon - A review of our analysis of the outlook for the major macro sectors

  • Equity indices
  • Choose individual equity examples
  • Bonds
  • FX
  • Cryptocurrencies
  • Commodities
  • Emerging Markets

6 x 40-minute sessions per day, plus Q&As. The cost for attendees is £4000 plus VAT for both days or £2500 per single day. 2-day access of the webinar, streamed live, costs £4000 plus VAT and £2500 for 1-day access.

For full details please click through to the website.

The Venue

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Lythe Hotel

Lythe Hill Hotel, Petworth Road, Haslemere, Surrey GU27 3BQ. Get directions

For full details please click through to the website.

When empires fall: Lessons from history

Dear Arkite,

"In this episode of the In Conversation podcast series Ben Ashby is joined by former trader and hedge fund manager David Murrin who is now an author, consultant and public speaker who asserts that Europe and the US are in decline, partially due to the Covid pandemic, and the war in Ukraine. He argues that by looking at patterns in history we can see that we are entering an era of volatility and increased danger.

This recording was originally a webinar organised by CFA UK’s Fixed Income special interest group in March 2022."

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In Conversation

Listen now

The Genesis And Predictive Power Of Breaking The Code Of History

Dear Arkite,

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​ Cycles Magazine is published by The Foundation For The Study Of Cycles

Cycles Magazine is published by The Foundation For The Study Of Cycles and in this edition, they have published a portion of my work 'The Genesis And Predictive Power Of Breaking The Code Of History'. The downloadable pdf contains this not insubstantial text from my book, Breaking The Code Of History, which will give you an insight into my key theories including my Five Stages of Empire model, Wars and The Empire Cycle and The Great Power Shift West to East.

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The Genesis And Predictive Power Of Breaking The Code Of History

Please click here to view the page then click the link provided to download a copy.

Step Back In Time

Dear Arkite,

I'm sorry things have been a little quiet on the website but I was struck down with Covid again, causing me to take a step back from writing for a short time. Fear not I'll be posting again soon enough but in the meantime why not take a step back in time to 2010 and watch my interview on CNBC Worldwide Exchange! I discuss the decline of the US, China's challenge and Dollar weakness.

"The real disaster is not to recognise where America is, but to continue to be unconscious over the collapse of its power base and that only accelerates the loss of power…”

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CNBC 2010 interview

 

View the interview in full