Arkite Alerts Archive

David has been discussing Coronavirus and its profound effect on global economies and in particular Africa. Hear David's views on how the virus came about, it's current impact and what lies ahead.

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Webinar: Coronavirus and the Challenge for Africa

As the COVID-19 outbreak continues to spread, how will Africa fare? Listen to The Africa Report's Nicholas Norbrook's conversation with David Murrin, global forecaster, Arshad Abba, Canback Consulting, and Vincent Rouget, Control Risks for expert advice from 12th March 2020.

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Coronavirus: The economic and political risks for Africa webinar

The UK’s Overseas Development Institute estimate a $30bn drop in export receipts should oil stay this low for a protracted period.

Spiking bond premiums – and big debt overhangs – are going to make refinancing debt difficult for many African countries.

Healthcare systems, often under-funded and under-staffed, will be tested in the coming months.

You can view all David's webinars and video here.

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Applying the analogy of Noah’s Ark by likening it to the economic shutdown of the Western economies, I note that it has been 41 days since my Murrination of February 22^nd - LESSONS FROM NOAH AND HIS ARK. Since then, it has not stopped raining. The bible told of rains pouring down for forty days and forty nights. After this storm had passed all the land was covered with water and the old world had disappeared. Luckily, this is not the literal case in the real world today.

However, we are suffering from a metaphorical downpour which is still in full swing and make no mistake the waters will continue to rise. In short, the longer the economic shutdown, the less will be left of the old economy. Those that dismissed the warnings of a flood are now on their roofs watching the waters rise. These same people are left with only the hope that the rain will stop and the world will go back to the way it was. However, the majority of the optimistic economic and market projections from the main financial institutions, are nothing more than fairy tales.

The  reality is that  the markets have fallen some 30-38% from their highs of the year. In response, central governments and central banks have done all they can to buttress crumbling economy’s. Meanwhile, asset managers and pension funds are still holding on the fairy tales, that this is the low of a nasty V bottomed move. All they have left is hope and hope is never a good reason to hold on to a position. That hope has been able to be maintained in the corrective price action over the past two weeks, which arrested the rapid decline. However, that correction is now all but over and prices are about to fall again, in what I expect to be a much bigger drop than the first one.

So what should you do to preserve your wealth? - Subscribe to my Murrinations, Arkent Scenarios and Financial Analysis to learn more. Or contact David directly.

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The Importance Of Effective Early Warning and AI

During the  Battle of Britain in 1940, the RAF faced the overwhelming odds of Goering's Luftwaffe. However, Air Chief Marshal of Fighter Command, Hugh Dowding was a unique innovator. Having anticipated the challenge ahead, he had created and put into operation the first integrated air defence system in the world. This was his groundbreaking response to the general belief at the time that the bomber would always reach its target. However, the RAF early warning system worked incredibly well. Even under relentless air attack it was this system that allowed the limited number of RAF fighters to maximise their impact, undoubtedly contributing to victory in the defining Battle of Britain.The parallels to todays Pandemic are striking.

Today's pandemic requires similar thinking and innovation. For example, there is a desperate need to accurately predict patient flows to hospitals seven days in advance allowing them to direct patient flows and manage and prepare emergency resources to maximum effect.

I have been working closely with the Swiss company Calyps and their Chairman Martin Schweighhauser in past weeks, enabling me to witness the accuracy of their predictive models day by day. Their system is AI-based (allowing it to become more accurate with more data). Indeed, if fed granular data it can accurately predict flows in areas and direct the patient flow to nearby hospitals according to their available capacity. In summary, Calyps could significantly reduce deaths in the weeks ahead if implemented without delay. The chart below reflects the type of outputs Calyps generates. CHART: situation and forecast UK - 4 days out; cumulative deaths on +/- 2 April will exceed 3000;

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A Call For Urgent Help

If there are readers who have contact with end-users in any country, such as hospitals, local governments, and central governments, who are keen to find out more please contact David. Additionally, any investors who may help accelerate the roll out, which is now potentially massive, are encouraged to do the same.

In the meantime, a storm is about to wash over Britain as our casualties accelerate most grievously. Our thoughts are with the NHS workers and the courage it takes them to go back into the fight each and every day and  those who are ill and their all their relations.

Old Peoples Homes Becoming Death Traps

Whilst all Western societies naturally seek to protect their vulnerable old aged population, the reality of the situation is deeply disturbing. Old peoples homes concentrate the old. The larger they are the more staff required. If one carer gets infected and then brings in the Virus into the home, it will sweep through the population like wildfire. Then as the number of sick sky rockets, the carers will be exposed to high viral loads and will get sick themselves adding to the NHS burden.

No doubt the NHS and primary hospitals will get priority over protective equipment which makes the carers very brave and compassionate people. Sadly unless the carers live in the home and isolate themselves with the population then infection seems all but inevitable.

There was a comment from government last week that was deeply distasteful, suggesting that the number of deaths from the pandemic would not exceed those that would die in the next year. A grossly misleading and insensitive comment by any standards. Especially as it seems that the deaths in old peoples homes are not added to the hospital statistics. Thus significantly underplaying the overall death numbers.

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David talks to the Independent Research Forum about his world view on the markets and the impact of the Wuhan Virus on the global economy. In addition this webinar, from 6th March 2020, is specifically focused on asset management and individual market outlooks.

Other free content includes:

• The New Wuhan Reality - 1: Government Strategies
• The New Wuhan Reality - 2: The Absence of Polarisation
• Denial In The Face Of The Economic Winter

Premium subscribers can now read:

• The Time Of The Great Shift
• The New Wuhan Reality - 3: Addressing Our Fear of The Unknown
• The New Wuhan Reality - 4: Preparation and Prevention 

Premium articles will become available to everyone in 14 days, or you can subscribe now for instant access.

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Dear Arkite

The human race is facing an unprecedented challenge with the Wuhan Virus sweeping through the world’s population. 

My book, Breaking the Code of History, was written to explain the human collective behaviours that have brought us to a moment in history where those behaviours will, in all probability, prove destructive to our civilisation. Unless we learn and evolve, I fear that the Wuhan Virus is but one of a sequence of massive challenges that humanity will face in the coming decade.

The application of the principals within BTCH, have allowed me to accurately predict the behaviour of global geopolitics and markets into the highs of 2020 and since then.

Having highlighted back in 2009 that I believed that the next great pandemic would be a virus that originated in China, my research allowed me to swiftly identify in early January the significance of the unfolding Wuhan pandemic as it crashed into a fragile global economy.

Recognising that most of us will be spending a lot more time at home in the weeks ahead, I have discounted my limited number of copies of Breaking the Code of History from £42 to £25 plus postage, in the wish that you will have time to digest the principals that will allow you to better understand the challenges ahead and be better prepared to navigate through them.

Wishing you all stay well and find hidden linings in the challenging times ahead.

Warmest Wishes

David

Arkite: the name derived from my Arkent Strategy to navigate survive and thrive through the great shift.  

Buy Now At a Discounted price.

https://www.davidmurrin.co.uk/breaking-the-code-of-history/purchase

Breaking The Code Of History

We must identify the theories that underlie historical cycles, learn the lessons and apply them to today’s changing world. Studying the ebb and flow of empires throughout history, in particular, can enable us to pinpoint the mechanisms that cause civilisations to rise and fall. Read about the book. https://www.davidmurrin.co.uk/breaking-the-code-of-history