Murrinations

In order to understand more thoroughly Nelson Mandela’s magnificent achievements, one has to appreciate the geopolitical context of his life and to do that it is necessary to look at South Africa’s history and its phase on the empire cycle. From the time of its independence SA started its regional process and its population expanded unevenly with the black population growing faster than the white population, exacerbating the latter’s minority position.

History abounds with many clear lessons on the limiting of a nation’s acts of aggression in the early stages of militarization, as China is now. If in 1936 Britain and France had acted decisively against Hitler's reoccupation of the demilitarized Rhineland zone, when his Nazi army was still in its infancy, there was every chance that Germany would have been prevented from going to war in 1939.

As readers of my articles you are by now well acquainted with my view that Iran is currently in an expansionary stage of its development and as such its intentions to become a nuclear power and position itself at the head of the Middle East should not be dismissed lightly. I also believe that the only way to ensure that the threat of this program is removed would have been via US Military action to destroy the key facilities. However, this was not a course of action that Obama ever contemplated, indeed he choose to inhibit any such action by the Israelis.

Our view over the September and October period has been that the stock market rally in the US and Europe has been going through a topping process that marks the end of the 24 month bull market in the US and Europe. However to our surprise the low volatility grinding rally has continued for much longer than we expected, despite many signs that this is a final thrust to the upside. Typically this mature rally is sucking in the last of the new longs, after which we expect the market to turn downward, in a sustained bear market.

The first time Turkey defied NATO, and specifically US interests, was during the Second Gulf War when it denied access to the US Army’s 4^th division which sought to invade Iraq from the north via Turkey. This act was in effect a statement of Turkish independence from America and the West, and now repeated by the recent Turkish decision to award a contract to China for its requirement for air-defense missiles.

With deadlock in Washington and default date looming on the 17^th there seems to be a general feeling that when the time comes one party will blink and the problem will go away, after all America will never default?

When one views the current civil wars across the Middle East within the context of a BTCH regional civil war, there are only a few countries that appear to be untouched by the hot gusts of these latest winds of change.

If you enjoyed our blog on China's Africa: How America has dropped the ball, you might appreciate the following recent interviews given by David on Africa:

Moneyweb Special Report - China's fifth reincarnation as an empire system and its link to Africa

I have always been fascinated by the relationship between the film industry and social mood not just in Hollywood, but indeed globally. At times film directors and produces show an uncanny ability to predict and anticipate themes and stories that will appeal to the public in future years when the film completes the transition from inception to completion. Often the way a film is received by the public acts as a data point to current public social values and moods at the time of release.

As highlighted in Breaking the Code of History, one of the key requirements for an empire to grow successfully is to be able to expand into new territory and extract resources that can be returned to the homeland to feed economic growth. In an age where our planet is so populated and when America has to date been so dominant, the only strategic option for China was to move into the barren spaces in American foreign policy of which Africa remains the largest. Is this just a strategic blunder by the US?