Murrination Insights

All team sports are competitive with the vital element of entropy deriving from the actions of opposite team. Two team sports are a ritualised contest In which the most…

In the best traditions of the British Army, DRS has been put together with tired equipment that is at least two decades old. But even in this lamentable condition, to the credit of the brigade, it…

For almost two decades, Global Forecaster has been warning that the fifth stage of empire, US decline, commenced on 9/11. Set in motion by the responses of Bush, Cheney and Rumsfeld after the …

The lessons around the impact of WW1 on globalisation, and indeed the nature of the economic war that set the scene for 30 years of global contraction, are many. Most notably, the conditions then…

For over two decades, as readers of our Murrinations will know, we have been warning that the world is on the road to WW3 as we approach the 2025 K-wave peak. Our warnings have become louder as…

History is replete with empires that fell from within, imploding as self-interest blinds the strategic vision that once created their victories and drove their expansion. The rout from Afghanistan…

The past two decades of national self-destruction have manifested the weakest relative combat capability of the British Army in over three centuries. A wilful destructive process that has taken…

Who will win the next US election? Before answering that question, it is worth summarising the feelings of the US electorate associated with the decline of America, which are mirrored across…

Finally America has turned up to the fight for the second battle of the South West Pacific. Having forgotten the hard-fought lessons learned in retaking the islands from the Japanese after their…

Biden is under assault from inside and out, and may well fall. Whilst Trump, like many extreme narcissists, does not believe the law of the land applies to him, and consequently has left a trail…

Britain’s nuclear deterrent, once a symbol of strategic resilience, is now dangerously overstretched. The recent return of a barnacle-encrusted…

Global Forecaster’s Theories on Human Systems, which we also call the "physics of humanity", provide a unique basis to understand and predict the way our human world is…

The Republican Party will now have the chance for reformation. Trump hijacked traditional Republican politics, and in so doing accelerated American decline. Obama represented centre-left policies…

We made the prediction that Trump would not be the next President above after the Capitol Hill riots in 2021, and we stand by it. Especially as he faces four criminal indictments, including…

4.0  America's Collapse in its Moral Imperative to Rule

American decline is now most obvious in the collapse of the moral imperative to rule from Washington,…

We believe that the Ukrainian counter-offensive is now reaching the critical point of a break-in assault on the Orikhiv axis, most probably at Verbove. Potentially heralding…

Globalisation is a much-used word, but few of us have considered its real context, taking for granted that it will just continue. This is a rather hubristic perspective, amid growing evidence that…

3.0 Two New Additional Core Theories Based on Human Anti-Entropy

Not only has time endorsed the theories in Breaking the Code of History, but it has also allowed David to further his…

The Founding Fathers of the United States must today be turning in their graves, at an increasing rate of agitation, as they watch their great dream, which ultimately came to rule the world, fall…

For an empire in the final throes of overextension, the cost of power vastly outweighs its economic benefit. Imperial sustainability becomes increasingly unfeasible, and the system rapidly begins…

We are not just, as the saying goes, "living in interesting times". We are attempting to survive the biggest geopolitical shift in 500 years. The culmination of two decades of the decline of…

1.0 – The Core Theory of the Five Stage of Empire

Back in 2002 David created a new set of theories that collectively he named ‘Human Systems Theory’, or the ‘Physics of Humanity’. His…

The tempo of Xi’s aggression is accelerating as the drums of war beat ever louder, as tracked in Red Peril 22: Warning – Xi’s War is Close At Hand and Red Peril 13: Read My Lips – I Am Preparing…

Ukraine’s attacks on targets inside Russia (two images are shown above) are replicating a pattern seen in WW2. Early in the war, the German air force bombed…

The very public execution of Yevgeny Prigozhin is a reminder of the brutal nature of Putin's rule. A gruesome event that proves another of our predictions…

Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, we have been arguing that like the onset of the second Sino-Japanese War in 1937 that started WW2, the invasion was the start of WW3…

The fifth stage of the Five Stages of Empire is one that produces some very frightening outcomes, which start with constrictive thinking. In the case of America today, this stage of decline…

The phenomenon where investors buy highs and sell lows, in response to collective herd movements, is not restricted to markets but also includes any human endeavour that is by definition…

In our Murrination The Next Commodity Surge Has Commenced, we warned that the next commodity surge had started and would be driven by the process of commodity constriction. This will be led by the…

6.0 Leaving the UK Defenceless
Wallace would have us believe that his proudest achievement is the war he waged in Whitehall for defence. One which he believes he won – but we have argued…

As we have discussed many times, war is the ultimate forced human adaption process, as each side seeks to out-adapt its enemy. We have no doubt that Ukraine, in combination with NATO resources, is…

5.0 Wallace’s current view is that higher defence spending is not just vanity but a necessity which he justifies by the picture that he painted recently of the risks ahead.

Since the Invasion of Ukraine, we have been arguing that NATO nations must put their economies and armed forces on a war-time footing. We described this specifically with respect to the process of…

3.0 The war in Ukraine
During the time when the defence department and Whitehall officialdom (aka the linear-thinking Blob) thought Britain should not get involved, Wallace, with the support…

2.0 Events on Wallace’s Watch

Wallace’s seven-year watch (as security minister for three years and then defence secretary for four) has covered a series of seminal events in modern UK…

UFOs, UAPs, and the Age of Disclosure: A New Perspective For many, UFOs, now officially termed UAPs (Unidentified Aerial Phenomena), have long been dismissed as fringe or speculative.…

In our thesis of human anti entropy outlined in Anti Entropy in Human Systems and Human Collective Systems we argue that wars begat human Darwinist competition that lateralises the combatants in…

The judgement of Ben Wallace’s time as Secretary of Defence is a critical process, as it is a study of the UK’s failures on the unfolding path to WW3 that have effectively encouraged aggression by…

We have been following the progress of the Ukraine counter offensive in The Battle for Ukraine 48; The Challenges Of The Phase 3 Break In. So far it has progressed along the lines we expected,…

Our warnings of Chinese hostile intentions towards the West go back to the publication of Breaking the Code of History, well before 2009, and with respect specifically to Britain, to…

We have been warning that Xi has been planning for war since the onset of the Covid pandemic, which was an intentional but covert act of war by China, as we outlined in The Unnatural Origins of…

We believe that the commodity sector is now at the start of one of its biggest rallies in 56 years with an expected peak in 2025-27, as recently explained in my CIOs Macro View for July –…

If you have not had the chance to study my two new sets of theories that I have added since Breaking the Code of History then I commend them to you. They have filled in the…

In our Murrination The Battle for Ukraine 51; NATO is Doing Too Little and Too Late, we outlined that America especially and NATO generally had not equipped Ukraine with the…

The NATO meeting this week in Vilnius will have to discuss five main considerations.

One of our Global Forecaster predictions post-Brexit was that Britain had entered an expansive new global mode, in contrast to America's accelerated decline under Biden. The…

The UK has been the most outspoken of the Western allies regarding support for and supply of weapons to Ukraine. Making it Putin’s number one NATO target.

Just as we warned it would, the NHS has become a black hole in Britain's finances, constraining much-needed expenditure on defence at a time when we are facing WW3. Indeed, it now…

To start unpicking why Britain has been so badly blighted, we first need to better understand why UK inflation is relatively higher than any other nation in Europe. Extracting the underlying K…

Global Forecaster has a very clear mission statement, which is outlined below for those not familiar with our purpose and objective. We seek to understand human systems, and then based upon our…

The Battle for Ukraine is not a remote war, but one that is taking place in Europe, on the same scale as Stalingrad. One that will decide not just the existence of an independent Ukraine, but…

1.0 The lockdown disaster
It's now over three years since the first lockdown was enacted, and the evidence is clear that it was one of the most disastrous policies of…

In our Murrination The Battle for Ukraine 30; Putin’s Achilles Heel is his Meat Grinder Strategy With Negative Demographics we articulated that Ukraine's strategy of drawing Russian soldiers into…

Total War is a battle of innovation and adaptability, and one that Ukraine/NATO is winning over Russia. This is the first time since the second Gulf War that…

In the Elizabethan era, the wealthy sought to protect their teeth and thus brushed them with a new fangled substance called sugar – with horrendous consequences! A story that can today be told…

Following on from The Battle for Ukraine 48; The Counter-Offensive Phase 2 (added in below), we can assume that Ukraine’s forces will advance as closely as they can to Russia's second line of…

While the NATO nations have been training crews and very slowly supplying armoured weapons optimised for the unfolding offensive, the Russians have not been sitting around twiddling their thumbs.…

Today in the battle of Ukraine, the 600-mile front is being fought over by two armies, whose size in our modern world should take our breath away! They are positioned on either side of the front…

The pillar of law is critical to the healthy functioning of a democracy, especially a republic. Hence, in a remarkably synchronous set of events unfolding over the past few days, three democratic…

The mainstream press is now picking up on what we have been warning since the invasion of Ukraine over a year ago. That the lessons derived from the war in Ukraine will make the PLAN stronger and…

One of our predictions for 2023 was that Iran would attack Israel, first by proxy, and seek to go nuclear or have a revolution. 

Australia has emerged as a strategic bulwark in the Indo-Pacific in response to China’s accelerating military threat and clear intentions to dominate the region. Drawing stark lessons…

One of our predictions for 2023 was that Biden’s accelerating dementia would make him unfit to continue in office, such that he would not survive 2023 as the US President.

The weakness of…

Despite a clear road to an escalation of WW3, There is Collective Western Denial That WW3 Has Started. However, the reality is that Chinese Lethal Aid to Russia is Now almost Inevitable whilst The…

Brexit did not fail, rather, none of the policies that were associated with the promise of Brexit have, as of yet, been enacted (apart from the process of actually legally leaving the EU). Since…

One of our predictions around the emergence of a new Global Britain was that as American power waned, we predicted that the UK would seek to fill that vacuum as the EU also followed the US path.…

One of the great ironies is that our Murrinations at times seem to attract more attention from the West’s enemies than they do from our linear British and American political leadership, whom they…

Liz Truss may be a strange fish, but to her credit, she has consistently highlighted the correct strategic priorities, which only a lateral thinker would see as the critical path forward for the…

As we explained in The Battle for Ukraine 43: What Next? our conclusion remains that despite Russia’s best efforts to employ combat adaptations (see The Battle for Ukraine 40; Russian War-Fighting…

The advantages of AI are obvious and include streamlining any iterative…

The delusional, liberal and optimistic scenario is that AI development will be focused on the common good of humanity. It…

The AI revolution is upon us. In this case, I do not use the word 'revolution' lightly, because it will bring with it sweeping short and long-term…