Murrinations

In early 1942, the German battleship Scharnhorst and heavy battlecruiser Gneisenau made a daylight dash up the English Channel, from occupied France to the relative safety of Germany. Despite the best efforts of the RAF and Royal Navy, the two warships, with the help of the Luftwaffe, made it safely to Germany. The Royal Navy's failure to interdict this force, so close to its shores was a major blow.

We have been watching Copper closely, as a continuing indicator of commodity price deflation. Overall, we expect the CRB index to drop by a further 50% from current levels over the next two years. Copper shows a picture consistent with this view, with a long-term target of 1200, i.e. a new low below that of 2008. Short term, the lateral trading range between 2300 and 1980 is about to break downwards once the 2090 level is broken. This will lead to the next thrust down towards the 1700/1800 zone.

We have long been negative on the future political integrity of the Euro and expect in all probability that the EU as we know will break up within the next two years. Financially, we would expect the first market that anticipates this breakup would be the Euro currency.

The horrendous events of 9/11 catalysed the ideas in Breaking the Code of History (BTCH) and the Five Stages of Empire Model interpreted 9/11 as the beginning of the decline of the American Empire.

The current Sterling crisis which the press claims is due to Brexit is receiving considerable press coverage. Indeed, the sentiment on the future of the Sterling is exceptionally bearish.

Although Britain’s Intelligence Services have continued to receive relatively generous funding over the past decade from an absolute spending perspective, it would appear that our capability does not match the expanding multiple threats, especially in the cyber domain, but also in the traditional Intelligence Services with three major threats requiring ongoing monitoring: the Islamic fundamentalism, Russia and China.

Breaking the Code of History proposed that predatory nations in expansion behave much like animal predators in that they prefer to attack the weakest prey to limit any potential damage to themselves, which ultimately could be life threatening. So how would such a power view the West and Britain in the light of our track record in the last two decades? Britain’s security record is entwined with that of America, Britain's closest ally in this risk assessment:

Historically, democracies have not been good at anticipating rising aggressor nations and preparing a commensurately strong defence. Furthermore, there is a long-established trend (that is not unique to the UK only) of preparing for the last war rather than anticipating the next, and its change in nature. Consequently, the 2015 Strategice Defence Review has built-in limitations and flaws that are of an institutional nature and repeat the errors of the past centuries’ military planning.

Losses due to lack of preparedness at the Somme

The concepts in BTCH explained that the majority of wars are always driven by the need for resources and thus related to the 54-year Kondratiev cycle. The new current cycle commenced in 2000, rallied until 2010, and is now in a deep correction until 2018 which will create severe deflationary pressures much as the 1929 Wall Street Crash did. However, it will then be followed by an extremely powerful inflationary rally into a spiked peak around 2025/2027.