History abounds with many clear lessons on the limiting of a nation’s acts of aggression in the early stages of militarization, as China is now. If in 1936 Britain and France had acted decisively against Hitler's reoccupation of the demilitarized Rhineland zone, when his Nazi army was still in its infancy, there was every chance that Germany would have been prevented from going to war in 1939.
As readers of my articles you are by now well acquainted with my view that Iran is currently in an expansionary stage of its development and as such its intentions to become a nuclear power and position itself at the head of the Middle East should not be dismissed lightly. I also believe that the only way to ensure that the threat of this program is removed would have been via US Military action to destroy the key facilities. However, this was not a course of action that Obama ever contemplated, indeed he choose to inhibit any such action by the Israelis.
Our view over the September and October period has been that the stock market rally in the US and Europe has been going through a topping process that marks the end of the 24 month bull market in the US and Europe. However to our surprise the low volatility grinding rally has continued for much longer than we expected, despite many signs that this is a final thrust to the upside. Typically this mature rally is sucking in the last of the new longs, after which we expect the market to turn downward, in a sustained bear market.