August 2021

The New Global Strategic Nuclear Balance Part 1: Legacies From the Cold War

Nuclear Balence

The cold war model of nuclear escalation was very simple. First, there would be conventional land war. Following this, if one side was losing it might be forced to escalate to the use of tactical nuclear weapons, with the very real risk that it could then escalate to regional nuclear exchanges and then onto the highest court of a total nuclear warfare strategic nuclear exchange. Thus, unless each side could make a strategic nuclear exchange unwinnable, it became vulnerable to a rapid escalation to the highest level of nuclear warfare.

The Retreat From Afghanistan is America's Suez Crisis.


As we move through August, our Arkent predictions across all of the Market sectors seem on track, especially now Equities have started to reverse. We expect that events in Afghanistan and the consequent loss in confidence in America should now be followed by an acute period of financial crisis.