A new model for Britain's Defence Forces: Part III Timing of the next potential major war

The concepts in BTCH explained that the majority of wars are always driven by the need for resources and thus related to the 54-year Kondratiev cycle. The new current cycle commenced in 2000, rallied until 2010, and is now in a deep correction until 2018 which will create severe deflationary pressures much as the 1929 Wall Street Crash did. However, it will then be followed by an extremely powerful inflationary rally into a spiked peak around 2025/2027.

It is this cycle that could potentially catalyse a major war with Russia during the next two years of deflationary dip, as Russia’s finances deteriorate and Putin creates a war designed to distract his population (we do not consider this to be a high-risk scenario if the West increases its commitment to its defence). However, we do consider the risk of Chinese aggression to be extremely high as the inflationary cycle moves into its final phase from 2022 onwards.

Within this context, the 2015 Strategic Defence Review was a disaster as it both failed to anticipate these very real risks and consequently has not set in motion the planning required to be ready for a major potentially global war within the next seven years, i.e., by 2022.

This blog has been extracted from my recent paper "A new model for Britain's Defence Forces", and if you would like a free copy please contact christel@eaml.net.


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