Breaking The Code Of History: Part 1 Genesis


It has been over 13 years since Breaking The Code of History was published and almost 21 years since its theories were first developed. Today the world is now close the to dangerous precipice that it predicted, so we thought that this was a good time to review its genesis and predictive power as well as the modifications and additional theories that have been made since it was published.

  1.  The Genesis Of Breaking The Code Of History

The theories developed within Breaking the Code of History were inspired by the development of my CIO’s investment thesis of my hedge fund, Emergent Asset Management, that I developed soon after the seminal moment of 9/11. The following day, I realised the world had changed forever and that the event had far greater significance than people realised. Specifically, it shattered the delusion that Western democracy would rule the world for the next century.

My initial hypothesis was that this was effectively an immune system failure of the American system because the US security services had detected and successfully thwarted the majority of the previous Islamic fundamentalists attacks to American interests globally, and everyone on US soil. My assumption, that later proved correct, was that the two intelligence services, the CIA and FBI, had behaved as if they were in competition and did not share information. I further hypothesised that such behaviour is representative of decline and fracture in a system.

I expanded this thought process such that America was actually in decline when it thought it was at the top of its game (a process of collective denial that is very common in market behaviour) at points on a cycle where prices start to decline from a new high and the market believes that it is a buying opportunity, while it is, in reality, a point of acceleration in a new bear trend.

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Within six weeks, I had formulated the essence of what were to become the theories within Breaking the Code of History. However, it took years of research to study every empire in history and confirm that they all underwent five distinct stages of empire in their cycles.

In the following months and years, I became more convinced of my findings and decided to share them with our investors and the wider world, because they were potentially far too important to keep secret, namely that:

  • America was the last of the Christian empires and had entered the phase of terminal decline after 9/11; and
  • China was the second of the Asian empires that had started its new cycle in 1902 and was inevitably going to become, in a very short period, the hegemonic challenger to America that would lead to WW3 in 2025–2027, coincident with a commodity cycle price peak.

I remember at the time using words and phrases that were unheard of to describe my theories, but which are now common in our language, such as ‘a uni-polar world’ migrating to a ‘multi-polar world’ or the process of ‘polarisation’ to describe the road to war and the ‘dehumanisation’ of the opposition.

Next The Key Theories and Messages Of Breaking The Code Of History

Breaking The Code of History