Britain's Future: Part I Regionalisation, the first phase of a new British cycle

The impending vote by Scotland to secede from the union, coupled with the threat from radicalised terrorists returning from the Middle East, raises critical questions about Britain’s future. Applying the five stages of the empire model described in “Breaking The Code of History” to modern Britain gives perspective of Britain's future that may come as a surprise to many of both its population and indeed the world.

The starting point for the analysis is the question as to where Britain is on the cycle of empires? The answer will give context to the events of today. Within the structure of the Super Western Christian Empire post 1945, the US rose to the heights of empire whilst Europe was at the lows, having being forced to divest itself of its imperial assets. In effect, Europe commenced a new cycle and had to start again. As part of that process, continental Europe committed itself to the EU dream, initially helped by the Cold War which forced Europeans together, for fear of invasion from the USSR. However, without strong demographics this agglomeration was not driven by natural social forces, but rather compressed together by a political dream. Not surprisingly, six decades later this false construct has not fared well. Instead, hidebound by Brussels’ burocracy, neutral demographics and negative real economic growth the EU is imploding. Only Germany has shown a heartbeat, but that has been stimulated by the low exchange rate (due to the other weak economies averaging down the exchange rate of a strong Germany) that has made its industry competitive on the export markets to the Far East.

Courageously and wisely, Britain stayed outside the EU which has served it very well, keeping its currency and a degree of independence. The exhausted Britain of the Eighties also had a saviour in the form of Margret Thatcher who kick-started the enterprise culture and new work ethics, moving Britain away from the doldrums. This successful independent path means that Britain is now leading in the cycle of regionalisation within Europe. Combined with the American decline, this rather surprisingly places Britain in the lead of the western nations undergoing a new phase of regionalisation. This trend will in time give Britain increasingly more relative economic power in Europe than Germany in the years to come and will produce a rebalancing of the Anglo-American relationship in Britain’s favour.

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Is your premise about Britain's leading role in regionalisation dependent both on Scotland remaining within the Union and the UK within the UK? Or are both irrelevant?