Darkest before the Dawn: Part II The ANC today

The phase of dictatorship ended after Mandela’s death and the pendulum swung back to a form of leadership that was at the other side of the swing. In this case, the old tribal values of hierarchical power, self-aggrandisement and corruption. This process began during Thabo Mbeki’s regime and is now prolific with Jacob Zuma, to the point where it has impaired the growth of the nation in every way possible. The swing in this case was also away from Mandela’s belief that leadership should serve the people towards one where leadership serves itself. Coincident with this extreme case of kleptocracy are the limitations of the very nature of the ANC. The party was formed to win control of the nation from the white population in a civil war, but it had no clear objectives beyond that point. For a short time Mandela’s personal vision gave the ANC the objectives of social integration and shared success beyond the initial victory in the war. A vision of a ‘rainbow nation’. However, with Mandela’s death, his dream has been deferred for at least two decades.

Since then the ANC’s policies have focussed on wealth distribution via processes like Black Economic Empowerment (BEE). Although an imperfect and challenging experience for those whites subjected to the BEE laws, this mechanism was always going to have to be a wealth distribution programme to build a black middle class rapidly, which would then create a degree of political stability for the new nation. ‘Black Empowerment’ was effectively the price of peace and social integration between the white and black populations. However, now that a black middle class has been created, it is time to enact a new strategy that encourages risk taking and value creation with equal opportunities for all sections of the SA society.

The post regionalisation phase that SA is moving through at present is always characterised by a period of recovery and integration when the new nation re-integrates. Today, the ANC under Zuma’s leadership has proven to be singularly incapable of leading the country and creating greater prosperity for its people. Consequently, this monolithic party that has dominated SA’s politics, is inevitably in the process of decline that will end with a split. Notably, the majority of declines are always energised internally and as such the ANC is now in a state of civil war against Zuma which will inevitably tear it apart and destroy its covenant with the people who voted it into power. Nature and politics abhor vacuums, and so as the ANC has gone into decline, two new parties have risen to prominence: the Democratic Alliance (DA) and the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF).

Cyril Ramaphosa, who was Nelson Mandela's choice as the future president, has always been the great white hope of SA politics. He is a loyal member of the ANC, whose purpose seems to be one of service to his nation, not tainted by corruption. As a businessman with an estimated wealth of $675M, he must be able to see the current economic failings of the ANC. The big questions are: "Could he represent one element in any future split of the ANC? If so, with his politics squarely in the wealth creation camp, might there be potential for an alliance with the DA?". Until recently, I would have given this option significant weight, however his failure to stand up against Zuma has made him look weak and ineffective, and more importantly he is now tarred with the same brush. As such, he should be considered a reduced factor in the great game as the ANC destroys itself.

Most importantly, the ANC was designed to win a civil war, not to enact wealth creation policies and grow the economy. In its current incarnation it has in effect distributed as much wealth as is present in the system without creating new wealth. It cannot distribute more, and it does not have the policies or competencies to grow the economy. With the objective of wealth creation in mind, the nation at the next elections in 2019 have to decide between the ANC, EFF and the DA as to whom will be the next party of leadership.


Dear Dave,

Many thanks for your feedback.

The application of BTCH principals to understand geopolitics as they unfold today is specifically designed to de-personalise what is a human process that keeps repeating. In so doing we have a better chance to understand how we behave and then change our outcomes.

Whilst I can fully understand the strength of your emotions and indeed, I have a great deal of empathy for them, I would objectively point out that:

1. What the white tribe subjected the black tribes to under apartheid was hardly reasonable and fair by any measure, so it’s not as if a good example had been set for the current black regime.

2. The blacks wrestled power from the whites in a civil war. As winners on a global scale of winners' responses, the black tribes have been remarkably lenient towards the losers in redistributing power and wealth, though I have no doubt that for the losing side if feels horrendous.

3. Sadly, there are plenty of very corrupt and egocentric white politicians in the world who suborn power to create wealth. Tony Blair been a prime example, so again it’s hard to say the one side is better than another.

Rather better to understand that the pendulum of power swung from one extreme, where the white tribe lost it moral imperative, to now another side where the ANC have lost theirs too, so a swing back to the centre is now inevitable. Indeed dare I say in time, past the centre to the other side again. All we can hope for is that the aptitudes of the swings become smaller with time.

From: Dave Rodger Date: 11 May 2017 at 9:15:19 

While Murrin may be correct in some of his statements, he surely misses the mark as well...

Black Economic Empowerment ( BEE ) is a misnomer..... The true meaning of BEE is Black Elite Enrichment.

Case in point is Cyril who as a previous Herd Boy (in the same vein as his leader) manages to accumulate wealth of R675m on a Politicians Salary... All the while complaining of White Monopoly Capital being the problem......

True African style.....Corruption is built into their DNA... Get in a position of power/influence and rip it off for personal benefit and FUCK THE POOR..... All the while talking platitudes and bright future to the un-educated masses who form the voter base for the ANC..... They have no morals or conscience. Any White politician facing the same exposures would have done the decent thing and resigned long ago.

All politicians are predators on the under-classes and the Zuma Clan have taken this concept to higher levels...