Insights from the Black Lives Matter Movement Part 2: American Social Integration

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Although America and Britain speak the same language, they exhibit many fundamental differences with respect to social integration of its various races. Today in Britain, based on a 2011 census, some 86% were white; 8% Asian and 3% of African Black decent. Whilst in America today, the total non Hispanic white population is some 60.4%; Hispanics are 21% and those of African Black decent 13%. Note that out of the 18% Hispanics, 11% would classify themselves as white, taking the total white population to 77%.

The Differences between American and British Social Integration

When looking at a social issue, its impact and resonance on society depends on where that society is on the Five Phases of Empire Curve. Comparing where America and Britain are today in terms of this cycle – at opposite ends - is very instructive with regard to the impact of the black lives matter theme (capitals? I’m mixed on this one). I would surmise that the social situation in Britain and America is completely different. Britain is in expansion and America is in terminal decline. Meaning that, whilst both will inevitably see political unrest, in America this could lead to a potential fracture if not managed constructively and supportively in relation to this sector of society. Whilst in Britain, its expansive energy can be harnessed to create a better, more integrated multi racial society as part of the definition of British values going forward. This is best explained by the law of concentric competition as per my theory of polarisation. In essence, a nation with an expansive energy moves outwards from the centre, including more of the concentric circles. Whilst a nation with contracting energy, best exemplified by wealth destruction in the lower echelons of society, moves from the outside rings inwards and each concentric circle is a potential fracture line. In America's case, today the BLM meme operates at the nation versus tribal line.

 

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American Decline and Potential Fracture

America abolished slavery in 1863, but maintained a system of “apartheid” (“separateness” not “hate”) or racial segregation until the Civil Rights Act of 1964 and Voting Rights Act of 1965 were enacted. This meant that America has been a racially integrated nation for only 55 years. This took place during the phases of maturity and into over-extension and decline. This is not enough time to make fundamental change, especially when well over half of that phase was during decline. This is defined by economic shrinkage starting in the poorer classes of society - a dynamic that creates fracture and not integration. Additionally, within the context of the Super Western Christian empire, America was relatively numerous demographically and thus projected its culture upon other nations rather than integrated with them. This reinforced a construct of a failure to recognise or indeed understand other cultures, even if they existed within their own American nation. The Afro Americans, Mexicans and Indigenous Indians all suffered from this blindness. Lastly, American history has been written by the white over class, which I strongly suspect has not given credit for the roles that Afro Americans or indeed other sub cultures have played at critical times in American history.

According to my model of the Five Stages of Empire, America has been in decline (the 5th phase of an empire cycle) since 9/11. Consequently, over the past two decades it has lost its hegemonic power as China has risen up to challenge its status. One of the clear manifestations has been the loss of the nations' wealth and increased debt. Rather than being spent on new infrastructure to give a future advantage, this debt has been spent on keeping the system afloat. This has impacted the lower and middle classes over two decades, who have been gradually getting poorer. Meanwhile, the few at the top have become super-rich, as a result of  the monetary interventions of the FED. With the twin forces of the pandemic and lack of medical coverage, coupled with the economic standstill from the Wuhan pandemic, the poor and middle classes have been placed under dire economic pressure which has created massive pent up social instability within America.

The collective emotions of anger, fear and frustration have been building and need an outlet. Such economic shrinkage meant that there is less to go around; consequently social systems fracture according to my theory of polarisation. Thus, as the system declines, and contracts it fractures into smaller units as a natural adaptation for survival. In the case of black lives matter, that fracture is racial as defined by fracturing from nation to tribe. However as the economic prognosis for the Americas is, in my opinion, very poor for the months ahead, these forces will continue to build over time. However many other fracture lines in American society will continue to be exacerbated by the current poor leadership and the future weak leadership of Biden. Increasing large scale social unrest is a very real threat in the months ahead. With American cowboy history and the right to bear arms embedded deep in the culture, America is probably the most intrinsically violent of the democratic nations. Any escalation in social unrest is thus bound to bring high levels of violence. That, coupled with a police force that essentially governs by force over the American population, is a recipe for great unpleasantness.

The latest FBI stats for 2018 record 2,925 black people killed in violence, 2,600 of which were killed by blacks. The number of whites killed by blacks is twice that of whites to blacks. However, as easy as it is to characterise blacks as violent with these statistics, the truth is that as in all societies, the lower social economic sectors of society tend to be more violent than the higher ones. Blaming this data on race is therefore inaccurate and only fuels the energy of fracture. Indeed there are plenty of white extremists groups who are armed to the teeth and prepared to commit violent acts as they perceive that their world is threatened. There is evidence that violence was rising in America even before the lock downs. I would suggest that this is due to the increase in economic duress as the economy declines in its middle and lower sectors of the population.

For the first time I have to contemplate that if, my economic forecasts are accurate and the western nations are in the early stages of a deep depression, then there is a risk (although very small at present) that America might fracture into western and eastern nations i.e the reverse of the American Civil War and as befell the USSR. If, heaven forbid, this was the case then it would give China free rein to become the new hegemony, with all the risk that entails for the democratic nations of the world.

What America needs is a great leader at this time of crisis. It is certainly not Trump and it is unlikely to be Biden. Thus we need to look at Biden's Vice President as critical to Americas future.

My study of empire cycles suggests that the social values of an empire die with its decline and only then can new, enhanced values be integrated into a new expansive cycle. This is what Britain has been doing since 1970. Thus America will decline further, following Britain’s path post 1945 and will inevitably decline to a low point in this decade, where its power has been lost. The big questions are (i) how long that decline will take, and (ii) can America’s rate of decline be slowed so that it is able to effectively deter Chinese aggression in this decade? At present the prognosis does not look good.

Next; Insights From the Black Lives Matter Movement Part 3 ; British Social Integration

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Black Lives Matter makes a big deal about the perceived unfair treatment of (principally) African Americans. But we don't hear of Chinese, Indians, Hispanics or other non-white racial groups whining about their alleged 'disadvantages'; they knuckle down and get on with life. The 'black disadvantage' problem won't go away anywhere until someone BIG says 'stop your tedious victim mentality, pull your pants up, stop the ghetto behaviour, dump your violent/sexist rap 'music' - and face your parental responsibilities. Basically, grow up. Plenty of black people saying this, just not loudly enough.