Prognosis for the Euro

We have long been negative on the future political integrity of the Euro and expect in all probability that the EU as we know will break up within the next two years. Financially, we would expect the first market that anticipates this breakup would be the Euro currency.

Since 2015, the Euro has traded a tight range, post a massive drop. However, we expect it to break below 104.00 and ultimately trade down to the 80 to 70 zone. Time frame wise, we see a test of the 104 level within the next month. Such a dramatic move in the Euro will shift the negative sentiment away from Sterling and commence its run as a safe haven currency.




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My interpretation of this is that the EU frames as an Empire tradition of the WSCEs is dramatic decline.
Maybe more blogs on the model applied to non nation state based Empires as sometimes these can appear more powerful or independent of the nation states that spawned them - include pseudo political - economic alliances past an present e.g Hanseatic Trading League with todays EU or OPEC. Military - Where is NATO right now, what about Chinas string of pearls aliances vs US own networks in Indian and Pacific Ocean? Also transnational corporates - Apple, BP just to name a few