We have long been negative on the future political integrity of the Euro and expect in all probability that the EU as we know will break up within the next two years. Financially, we would expect the first market that anticipates this breakup would be the Euro currency.
Since 2015, the Euro has traded a tight range, post a massive drop. However, we expect it to break below 104.00 and ultimately trade down to the 80 to 70 zone. Time frame wise, we see a test of the 104 level within the next month. Such a dramatic move in the Euro will shift the negative sentiment away from Sterling and commence its run as a safe haven currency.