Prognosis for the Euro

We have long been negative on the future political integrity of the Euro and expect in all probability that the EU as we know will break up within the next two years. Financially, we would expect the first market that anticipates this breakup would be the Euro currency.

Since 2015, the Euro has traded a tight range, post a massive drop. However, we expect it to break below 104.00 and ultimately trade down to the 80 to 70 zone. Time frame wise, we see a test of the 104 level within the next month. Such a dramatic move in the Euro will shift the negative sentiment away from Sterling and commence its run as a safe haven currency.

Category: 
Tags: 

Comments

David

My interpretation of this is that the EU frames as an Empire tradition of the WSCEs is dramatic decline.
Maybe more blogs on the model applied to non nation state based Empires as sometimes these can appear more powerful or independent of the nation states that spawned them - include pseudo political - economic alliances past an present e.g Hanseatic Trading League with todays EU or OPEC. Military - Where is NATO right now, what about Chinas string of pearls aliances vs US own networks in Indian and Pacific Ocean? Also transnational corporates - Apple, BP just to name a few

Dear Tristan, You are of course correct that nations are no longer the largest organising meme of human social structures. In BTCH I discuss this at length with the Super western Christian Empire (SWCE) and the Asian Super empire (ASE) and of course we should add the Islamic Super Empire ISE which is in a war of regionalisation, deciding how it should be consolidated and defined in the future. In this context the • EU is a legacy structure of the SWCE, but doomed to failure without positive demographics. • NATO is the defence alliance associated with the SWCE • OPEC was the first expression of a trading blocks based on oil associated with the ISE • The Trans Pacific Partnership, is an American and thus SWCE trading mechanism design to contains China in the region. • As for transnational companies, they all have ultimate affiliations to the nations in which they originated, so Apple to the US, BP to Britain, Amco to Saudi Arabia etc. I hope this hierarchy of social organisations makes sense as it drives geopolitics today. David

The puzzle for me is 'why has the Euro survived thus far?'