Regionalisation and civil war in the Islamic Middle East

3 September 2012 The Regional Civil war of the Islamic Middle East.  This conflict continues to escalate, sucking in more countries into its war zone, with Turkey edging closer to conflict with Syria. In BREAKING THE CODE OF HISTORY that Islamic system is identified as being in a similar phase of its cycle to that of the Western Christian Super Empire in its late stage of Regionalisation. In the majority of systems the end stage of regionalisation has been marked by a massive youthful demographic bulge that seeks the most effective and broadly representative values and leadership. The English Civil War 1642-51, American Civil War 1861-65 and the Chinese Civil War 1927-50 were clear examples of this process, and, in each case, the challenger to the incumbent powerbase represented a much broader enfranchisement of the general population. As a result, its power ultimately prevailed, and the new militarised polarised society then marched out into the world on its path to empire.

And so, within 'the Five Stages of Empire' context (as defined in detail in BREAKING THE CODE OF HISTORY), the Arab Spring is, in reality, a regional civil war. On the one side are the Shias led by Iran, and on the other the Sunni powers. The energy of civil war is one that questions all aspects of a society and so there is a sub civil war within the Sunni powers that has created the wave of civil unrest in Egypt and Libya which is now also evident in Syria. These revolutions represent the sweeping aside of old regimes with narrow power bases that were linked to the western construct, and their replacement with a leadership that characterizes a new Sunni Islamic identity and pride.

As the Sunni powers find new effective leadership they will without doubt end up dominating the region, and Iran, with its 15% minority, will find itself even more isolated from the world, much as once happened with the first caliphate. The final outcome of this regional civil war process will ultimately be an Islamic Middle East, governed by new Sunni regimes that will assert their collective independence, and reject the values of the western Christian world, in favour  of its own Islamic identity.