The Brexit Election: Part 1 The Remain Parties

brexit election

So the 57th Parliament of England has been dissolved and last week it's self-serving egocentric speaker retired and subsequently was replaced by  a more respectful and impartial Speaker of the House. I suspect that history will judge the arrogant and deluded 57th Parliament and its speaker Bercrow as one of the most duplicitous and self-serving in British democracy’s long history. Having solemnly agreed to respect the will of the people to leave the EU following the referendum result and subsequent election, a large number of MPs then fought a long sustained and covert campaign to undermine the outcome against the will of the people. In the process they diminished and humiliated the nation that they supposedly serve. Those very same MPs will now be subject to the will of the people in a general election on December 12th and due to their delusion within the Westminster Bubble and dislocation  from the general public, will undoubtedly be surprised by the outcome.

One of the reasons why the 57th Parliament was so conflicted was that the main issue of Brexit was not reflected in party policies allowing remainers and leavers to co-exist within all the parties. However, this next election will be about leaving or staying and parties will have to align themselves with one or the other perspective or risk being heavily punished for sitting on the fence.

So what, you might well ask, is my prediction for the outcome of the Brexit Election?

By applying the five-phase growth cycle to Britain's current situation, I have long maintained that Brexit represents nothing less than the energy of a civil war of the magnitude as the English civil war of 1642-51. But to the great credit of British democracy, the framework although sorely tested at times has contained the potentially destructive energy peacefully.

As in any civil war at this stage of a cycle the two energies that have been contesting this evolution. are the left-brained  elite that have governed up to now and who seek continuation through linear iteration.Versus  the new right-brained energy that seeks a new expansion and release of creative energy along with the greater influence on the global stage. This new rising energy represents national  aspiration and self-belief. The leader and party that taps into this collective undercurrent will, without doubt, win the election. So how do the various parties and most importantly their leaders rate by this measure?

Corbyn's Labour Party (positioned to the left of left and effectively a remain party)

The Blairite Labour party which moved to the centre making it electable (if no less incompetent with respect to the management of the nations finances) is no more. Confirmation if ever needed, came with the resignation of Tom Watson its deputy leader and Blairite champion. Having survived a few political assassination attempts from the Labour left, he saw the writing on the wall and resigned of his own accord. Thus Labour is now positioned to the left of left, with Corbyn's socialism masking the even more extreme Marxist policies, as espoused by the shadow chancellor John McDonnell. Together they are attempting to lead a class war that personifies the politics of envy combined with  wealth distribution politics on steroids. Their policies are throwback to a toxic mixture of Lenin and Trotsky infused with completely unacceptable anti-semitism.

To entice voters who are not aware of the disastrous consequences such policies have created in the past century. The terrible duo is promising to spend £600 Billion in as yet unspecified ways. Even if they could harness such a giveaway efficiently, which is very unlikely, this spending spree would take Britain back to levels of national debt only ever seen post WW2 at the time when we had also lost an empire. One only has to look at the history of high spending Labour governments to see that everyone ended their terms leaving Britain's finances in a complete mess that the Conservatives had to remedy. In the case of a Corbyn Government, there is no doubt with their collective incompetence would lead the nation to the brink of destruction following in the footsteps of a bankrupt Italy in short order.

The wisdom of crowds can at times be very perceptive. In Britain's case today, the electorate is probably the most sophisticated collective in the world. So coupled with the expansionary phase that Britain is currently navigating, Labour's Marxist policies will have very little broad-based resonance in British society. Why? Because based on teh five stages of Empire model, expansionary systems seek wealth and power creation, not distribution. Thus for many years contrary to many peoples fears, I have maintained that Labour has been a dying party as British politics moved to the right. As if in some self-destructive drive the Labour party under Miliband and Corbyn with the direction of Len McCluskey and the trade unions have moved the wrong way, in an act of political suicide.

To add to that underlying loss of relevance, the Labour party has no clear position as to leaving or staying, hoping to dupe the leaving Labour voters into their continued support. Their position is to renegotiate a new better third version of a Brexit deal, despite the EU clearly indicating that that would never happen. Then put it to another national Referendum along with Scottish independence. A classic Corbyn move: one of a man who espouses a sit on the fence strategy. However in this case the strategy is immediately undermined by Labours' failure to support the last referendum despite numerous commitments to do so. Thus there is a zero probability of a third deal been agreed and that will mean  that Labour will end up defaulting to the largest component of their party's views, which is  to stay in the EU. Thus Labour is effectively a remain party. A perception supported by the multitude of blocking votes against Boris’s deal.

Corbyn’s covert and indecisive position on Brexit echoes his style of leadership. Indeed its his party that has essentially frustrated Brexit to date, sought to hold a minority conservative government to ransom despite the damage to the nation's interests and doing his best to say no to change and hold onto power knowing that an election would see potentially huge losses for Labour. His levels of hypocrisy are breathtaking and on show for all to see. Foremost of which was to frustrate Boris's Brexit agreement at every turn and then to say that it was Boris's failure to leave by Halloween. News flash the electorate can see you, Mr Corbyn!

Most importantly Corbyn's support of any and all foreign parties that have been deemed acting against British interests is of huge concern, along with his objection to a nuclear deterrent. That deterrent is the only effective defence Britain has with the current weak state of its conventional forces. So Corbyn as PM would leave Britain defenceless. This is such a matter of great concern that four former Labour MP's felt so strongly about that they advocate voting Conservative! Thus it is no wonder that Corbyn's personal popularity is the lowest of any party leader.

Lastly for those fearing a similar surprise surge to Labour as seen in the last election, where May lost her Conservative majority, I believe that was not Corbyn's success but a refection of the complete unsuitability of May to lead as PM. Coupled with her massive negative personal appeal to even the most staunch conservative supporters.

However this time Corbyn faces Boris who will be perceived as a very different proposition win a time when the quality of a leader is as important as the policy that his/her party exposes. In this scenario I predict that Labour will suffer a most grievous defeat in the upcoming elections and will be potentially relegated from the opposition party, to that of one ever more isolated on the left of British Politics and displaced in its role as the opposition by the growing power of the Liberals and independents in the centre.

 

Jo Swinson's Liberals (positioned to the centre and effectively a remain party)

This party represents the centre and will no doubt gain from disenfranchised Labour voters who could never voted conservative. However, the only defining policy they apparently advocate is to reverse the referendum and stay in the EU. A path that I believe is unlikely to gain strong traction. Their policies seem to be based on negative imagery as to being against Brexit against Boris and Corbyn but having no clear vision of polices that would drive Britain into a successful future. This lack of an aspirational Vision is a major political weakness at this phase of Britain's cycle.Thus they  could be nicknamed the are not party.

As such their voting base will only grow on the back of disenfranchised remain Laborites and Conservatives and by default I would expect them to displace Labour as the main opposition party. However the biggest block this party faces is Jo Swinson herself.Althoigh a refreshing honest face in British politics as a leader she lack gravitas and just does not provide the sense of confidence that the rudder of the national government would be in sound hands in the rapids ahead,

 

Tomorrow in the Brexit Election Part 2 The Leave Parties, we will look at the other parties and our prognosis for the election.

Tags
Category

 

Subscribe

Engage With David On Social Media

LinkedIn  Twitter  Facebook

Comments

Permalink

This piece is for the young and not so young who are unfamiliar with the Labour Governments of the late 60s and the 70s.

The stakes are high. There is a real possibility of a serious political accident resulting in a minority Labour Party with far fewer MPs than the Conservatives forming a Government in partnership with a one policy, independence referendum or bust, SNP. Power is everything and a small band of committed Communists with strange friends overseas, who have been rightly on the fringes for their entire political lives can smell power.

Amongst the dire consequences were this to come about would be the possible break up of the Union as Labour would have to offer a referendum on independence as a price for the SNP’s cooperation. Due to the strong Remain vote in Scotland, another Independence Referendum could succeed.

Many more years of uncertainty over Brexit will certainly follow as Labour squabbles internally with its strong remain and second referendum members thus further weakening the economy.
Even worse with an announced revolutionary programme - John McDonnell’s words not mine- Labour plan to nationalise everything in sight including the Railways , the major utilities and now broadband with BT and other competitors effectively out of the game removing price competition completely. Those of us with a memory of all those nationalised industries in the 60s and early 70s recall gross inefficiency and endless strikes. Whilst nationalisation of the railways for example may resonate with commuters, believe me from my own experience then as a commuter, the Rail Unions were for ever calling lengthy strikes. Aside from the current ongoing, entirely political and unjustified strikes over the use of guards, days lost from strike action since the Thatcher and Blair years have been minimal as compared with millions lost in the 70s. This is due to some sensible changes to strike legislation and a fall in Union membership. The true cost of the massive nationalisation programme proposed by Labour is unaffordable and would result in all the inefficiencies of the those earlier years.

The biggest threat however is to our way of life in the UK. The Labour Party is now under the control of a small band of committed communists of one stripe or another supported by the largest Trade Union, Unite. When such people achieve political power through promises of untold benefits, they are then in a position to take over all major institutions piece by piece and eventually assume an insidious element of control over the lives of all citizens. The new yet unproductive elite become the rich members of society and as in the most recent example in Venezuela the poor and the general population suffer whilst the economy tanks, inflation soars and save for the elite and their henchmen suffering is universal. COULD THIS HAPPEN HERE ?

Corbyn and Co may be decent individuals who love their families and would not be unkind to animals but they have a myopic, ideological obsession with and total commitment to a communist, ultra left creed and the destruction of capitalism which has shown little success under those regimes elsewhere in the World which manage their affairs in this way. We have seen free speech stifled, free movement denied and one party states emerge. You might suggest that China is prospering but say that to the millions in the countryside and to the majority who have fled their homes to seek a livelihood in the big cities and they would not agree.

Extraordinarily, the relatively small Corbyn cadre has cowed the vast majority of moderate Labour MPs into total inaction. No new moderate leader has emerged to motivate MPs to get out in the Country and to sell Labour Party membership to normal labour voters at a modest cost ( £3 per head p.a. for ages 14 to 19 and Students and members of the armed forces. Around £50 per head for the rest ). They could have done so in order to outnumber the extreme Momentum gang and fellow travellers so as to facilitate a proper leadership challenge and to return the Party to its traditional roots. Today the top clique openly discuss possible like minded successors to Corbyn knowing that the Labour Members/ Momentum vote will see their candidate win the next leadership contest.

In the meantime Momentum activists have destabilised many traditional Labour held seats precipitating the deselection of moderate Labour MPs in favour of their own nominees. A number of moderate MPs have been threatened by these people via social media and effectively hounded out of office. The abuse of Jewish Labour MPs continues unabated.

It may be politically incorrect to add this aside as the background is wholly different, but the Nazi Party came to power as the National Socialist German Workers Party through the normal German democratic election process after years of government inadequacy, massive inflation and failed coalitions under the Weimar Republic. They spoke to a public who wanted change and strong leadership after years of post First World War dither. Perhaps after three years of politics being dominated by post Referendum Brexit dither many, particularly the young, might look for just that, a new direction. Change, any change. But be careful what you wish for.

I urge those voters who were too young to have experienced the left wing Wilson and Callaghan Labour Governments of the late 60s and 70s to consider the following paragraphs. I should add that the then leaders of the Labour Party were comparative angels as compared with their present counterparts. Yet they made a total mess of our economy.

Chancellor Dennis Healy famously announced that he planned to tax the rich “until the pips squeak.” He introduced a top rate of tax of 83% and a surcharge on top of 15% on any unearned income ie. dividend or interest income. This punitive and confiscatory tax rate resulted unsurprisingly, in what was referred to as the ‘brain drain’ as many of the Country’s top producers and business leaders left the UK. Millions of days were lost to strike action whether justified or not, as the Unions exercised almost unfettered powers. Wages rose unaffordably and inflation soared to 25% p.a which amongst other consequences destroyed the savings and pensions of the elderly. Inevitably tax revenues dropped alarmingly as top tax payers moved offshore, the economy shrank and deficits rose. Soon the UK’s ability to borrow on the International markets was compromised and the International Monetary Fund were called in by the Chancellor to bail out the UK by imposing tough constraints on the management of the economy. The long slow and painful fight back to restore sound finance started that day.

It is worth noting that today the richest 1% of tax payers contribute approximately 12% of income tax revenues whilst extending to the top 5% their contribution is approximately 50%. It is easy to see the adverse effects of punitive tax on that segment of society. Already the risk of a Corbyn administration has caused a number of prominent tax payers and world leading industrialists to base themselves elsewhere.

The 60s and 70s Labour Governments may have made a mess of the economy but as far as we know they were genuine life time Labour members committed to bettering the lot of the working man. Those Labour members who controlled the major Unions of the day arguably let them down by immoderate wage claims and excessive strikes which together with inefficient nationalised industries and reduction in tax revenue broke the economy removing any resilience to counter global downturns.

A consensus of historians referred to the Labour Administrations of the 60s and 70s as “ incapable of positive achievement, unable to control inflation, unable to control the Unions, unable to solve the Irish problem, unable to solve the Rhodesian question, unable to secure it’s proposals for the Welsh and Scottish devolutions, unable to reach a popular ‘modus vivendi’ with the Common Market and unable to stay in power.”
The present and few in numbers, top Labour leadership are cut from an entirely different cloth and are committed Marxists or shades thereof. They are funded principally by many of the remaining Trade Unions dominated by Unite under the extreme left wing leader McCluskey. A number of Labour MPs are funded by the left wing Unions.

The Labour leadership team are genuine in one sense. They have total belief in the Communist economic model and thus the destruction of Capitalism by imposing across the board state control through mass nationalisation, the freeing up of labour laws to permit even easier strike action and by taking control of all aspects of the state and its institutions. The fact that there is no evidence that such a model is successful without adversely affecting the freedom of expression, free movement and the overall prosperity of the general public, is ignored.

It is usually the case that those rulers become the new elite, become very prosperous and in very many examples corruption becomes endemic. The vast majority of citizens lives are dumbed down with a negative effect on the lot of the disadvantaged. As seen in the most recent example, Venezuela, a country rich in oil has been brought to its knees with rampant inflation and extreme distress and poverty. The amply rewarded armed forces are keeping a rotten administration in power. COULD IT HAPPEN HERE ?

Mr McDonnell, the smooth ‘Eminence Grise’ of Labour, publicly talks about a revolution and he means it. We cannot say that we were not warned. The honeyed words, the free gifts to all are carefully targeted for maximum effect, the so called benefits of nationalisation are illusory, unaffordable and of course ignore the dire performance of the 60s and 70s. These proposals are aimed at the majority of the population too young to recall those years and who may not fully comprehend the level of borrowing required to deliver on all the extravagant promises.

The nationalised industries in the late 60s and 70s were generally inefficient and as mentioned lacked investment and made losses exacerbated by regular and lengthy strikes. All of this had to be funded by the taxpayers which will be exactly the outcome should Corbyn be elected. The leadership has no business experience to see through such a demanding programme and the essential support and enthusiasm to get the job done may just be unavailable. Further, international lenders may well baulk at the scale of UK Government borrowing necessary to fund such extravagant commitments.

The only other credible alternative to Labour is the Conservative Party. The past three years of minority Government dominated by parliamentary obstruction of Brexit following a disastrous campaign by a weak leader have been painful. The Austerity years necessary to restore sound finance were painful but the Labour Government of Gordon Brown had famously emptied the coffers. The fact that a sufficient majority of MPs of both major parties reneged on their pledge to honour the Brexit vote has resulted in parliamentary chaos and disruption to normal government. The unparliamentary behaviour of the previous and biased Speaker added to the confusion.

What can be said about theTory party is that, despite the pain and endless partisan criticism, the public finances have been restored to some level of normalcy after the disaster of the previous administration. The Treasury official who famously left a note on his desk for his successor that “the money has run out- good luck” knew what he was saying. The Tories still retain a reputation for sound finance.

I repeat, the Marxist led Labour Party leaders wish to destroy capitalism. All evidence to the contrary that this has not proved to be a great move elsewhere has been ignored. Ideology blinds them. Capitalism, warts and all, has the capacity to create wealth and the ability to take care of the weak and vulnerable who exist in all societies whatever the regime. If the next Conservative Government can manage appropriately and fairly and can focus on dealing with pressing social issues, investing heavily in early years learning for every child regardless of background and in education generally, this one major drive alone could lift the next generation out of a systemic lack of opportunity.

Brexit will happen under a majority Tory administration if elected and in due course a trading deal will be struck with Europe which will be mutually beneficial. The UK can then advance on so many fronts. A successful economy will pay to cure a lot of ills.

This will not come about by mass nationalisation, freeing up labour laws to make strikes even easier, nor by taxing the rich alone. Under Labour every tax payer will pay more to fund Labour’s excessive demands. Check out the Institute of Fiscal Studies’ views on the matter. The lower and middle range tax payers would need to pay much more to make a real difference to revenue levels. You will not be told that !
If you are considering voting Labour, PLEASE CHECK OUT THE FACTS around the late 60s and 70s Labour Governments. PLEASE CHECK OUT the state of communist and other dictatorships some of which have acquired power initially via a democratic process and consider the quality of life of those citizens. Capitalism may not be perfect but it creates wealth which is widely spread and there is that precious commodity, freedom. Wealth creators do become successful and are rewarded excessively in some cases as are top football stars, actors, authors and others who are the peak of their professions. The former, however create thousands if not millions of jobs, generate tax revenues and create prosperity.

Labour are hitting every identifiable segment of the population with an incredible array of eye catching benefits to attract voters. Even football supporters have been roped in with some sweets. These give aways are patently unaffordable and most likely undeliverable. The Conservatives are guilty of the same manoeuvres but on a materially less significant scale. All recent elections suffer from this trait. And always the NHS becomes quite cynically a political football as it resonates so much with us all.

BEFORE YOU VOTE please do your homework. If you do vote Labour do not be surprised to see the UK break up and drift quite rapidly to third World status with all the unpleasant consequences that implies. Such an outcome will affect us all adversely save for the new brand of political Leaders. They and their henchmen will continue to flourish.

The writer has been an employee all his working life. There has been no silver spoon. He has three children educated privately with some difficulty as the local state schools were poor. He is retired but has seen it all and wears the T shirt ! Yes he has always voted conservative but with an open mind. Why ? Because it is the economy which kills or cures.

What do I wish for?
At this election, an adequate Tory majority so that the Party can govern and if so that it can govern fairly. A disaster for Labour and the exit of Corbyn. The follow
up should be a moderate leader emerge to challenge the Left. And the hope that all moderate MPs will campaign for new Party membership in the Country so as to dwarf the Momentum gang followed by a leadership election which removes completely the Marxist cadre presently poisoning Labour.

We need a left of centre Labour Party with traditional credentials to provide an effective opposition. I hope that the Liberal Party will return to its wider traditional role too with a change of leader from a rather strident lady who has made the Liberals seem an one issue party. I hope that the SNP does much less well than it’s arrogant leader’s expectation. The obsession with Independence hides a woeful record of management. She should be found out. Also as Alex Salmond’s Deputy for some years after a meteoric rise what does she know of the shenanigans he is accused of ? Answers please.

As for the other smaller parties it would be good to see the Greens making headway but only if at the expense of Labour.

If the outcome is near to the above the UK should be able to recover some respect internationally and to prosper.