So the 57th Parliament of England has been dissolved and last week it's self-serving egocentric speaker retired and subsequently was replaced by a more respectful and impartial Speaker of the House. I suspect that history will judge the arrogant and deluded 57th Parliament and its speaker Bercrow as one of the most duplicitous and self-serving in British democracy’s long history. Having solemnly agreed to respect the will of the people to leave the EU following the referendum result and subsequent election, a large number of MPs then fought a long sustained and covert campaign to undermine the outcome against the will of the people. In the process they diminished and humiliated the nation that they supposedly serve. Those very same MPs will now be subject to the will of the people in a general election on December 12th and due to their delusion within the Westminster Bubble and dislocation from the general public, will undoubtedly be surprised by the outcome.
One of the reasons why the 57th Parliament was so conflicted was that the main issue of Brexit was not reflected in party policies allowing remainers and leavers to co-exist within all the parties. However, this next election will be about leaving or staying and parties will have to align themselves with one or the other perspective or risk being heavily punished for sitting on the fence.
So what, you might well ask, is my prediction for the outcome of the Brexit Election?
By applying the five-phase growth cycle to Britain's current situation, I have long maintained that Brexit represents nothing less than the energy of a civil war of the magnitude as the English civil war of 1642-51. But to the great credit of British democracy, the framework although sorely tested at times has contained the potentially destructive energy peacefully.
As in any civil war at this stage of a cycle the two energies that have been contesting this evolution. are the left-brained elite that have governed up to now and who seek continuation through linear iteration.Versus the new right-brained energy that seeks a new expansion and release of creative energy along with the greater influence on the global stage. This new rising energy represents national aspiration and self-belief. The leader and party that taps into this collective undercurrent will, without doubt, win the election. So how do the various parties and most importantly their leaders rate by this measure?
Corbyn's Labour Party (positioned to the left of left and effectively a remain party)
The Blairite Labour party which moved to the centre making it electable (if no less incompetent with respect to the management of the nations finances) is no more. Confirmation if ever needed, came with the resignation of Tom Watson its deputy leader and Blairite champion. Having survived a few political assassination attempts from the Labour left, he saw the writing on the wall and resigned of his own accord. Thus Labour is now positioned to the left of left, with Corbyn's socialism masking the even more extreme Marxist policies, as espoused by the shadow chancellor John McDonnell. Together they are attempting to lead a class war that personifies the politics of envy combined with wealth distribution politics on steroids. Their policies are throwback to a toxic mixture of Lenin and Trotsky infused with completely unacceptable anti-semitism.
To entice voters who are not aware of the disastrous consequences such policies have created in the past century. The terrible duo is promising to spend £600 Billion in as yet unspecified ways. Even if they could harness such a giveaway efficiently, which is very unlikely, this spending spree would take Britain back to levels of national debt only ever seen post WW2 at the time when we had also lost an empire. One only has to look at the history of high spending Labour governments to see that everyone ended their terms leaving Britain's finances in a complete mess that the Conservatives had to remedy. In the case of a Corbyn Government, there is no doubt with their collective incompetence would lead the nation to the brink of destruction following in the footsteps of a bankrupt Italy in short order.
The wisdom of crowds can at times be very perceptive. In Britain's case today, the electorate is probably the most sophisticated collective in the world. So coupled with the expansionary phase that Britain is currently navigating, Labour's Marxist policies will have very little broad-based resonance in British society. Why? Because based on teh five stages of Empire model, expansionary systems seek wealth and power creation, not distribution. Thus for many years contrary to many peoples fears, I have maintained that Labour has been a dying party as British politics moved to the right. As if in some self-destructive drive the Labour party under Miliband and Corbyn with the direction of Len McCluskey and the trade unions have moved the wrong way, in an act of political suicide.
To add to that underlying loss of relevance, the Labour party has no clear position as to leaving or staying, hoping to dupe the leaving Labour voters into their continued support. Their position is to renegotiate a new better third version of a Brexit deal, despite the EU clearly indicating that that would never happen. Then put it to another national Referendum along with Scottish independence. A classic Corbyn move: one of a man who espouses a sit on the fence strategy. However in this case the strategy is immediately undermined by Labours' failure to support the last referendum despite numerous commitments to do so. Thus there is a zero probability of a third deal been agreed and that will mean that Labour will end up defaulting to the largest component of their party's views, which is to stay in the EU. Thus Labour is effectively a remain party. A perception supported by the multitude of blocking votes against Boris’s deal.
Corbyn’s covert and indecisive position on Brexit echoes his style of leadership. Indeed its his party that has essentially frustrated Brexit to date, sought to hold a minority conservative government to ransom despite the damage to the nation's interests and doing his best to say no to change and hold onto power knowing that an election would see potentially huge losses for Labour. His levels of hypocrisy are breathtaking and on show for all to see. Foremost of which was to frustrate Boris's Brexit agreement at every turn and then to say that it was Boris's failure to leave by Halloween. News flash the electorate can see you, Mr Corbyn!
Most importantly Corbyn's support of any and all foreign parties that have been deemed acting against British interests is of huge concern, along with his objection to a nuclear deterrent. That deterrent is the only effective defence Britain has with the current weak state of its conventional forces. So Corbyn as PM would leave Britain defenceless. This is such a matter of great concern that four former Labour MP's felt so strongly about that they advocate voting Conservative! Thus it is no wonder that Corbyn's personal popularity is the lowest of any party leader.
Lastly for those fearing a similar surprise surge to Labour as seen in the last election, where May lost her Conservative majority, I believe that was not Corbyn's success but a refection of the complete unsuitability of May to lead as PM. Coupled with her massive negative personal appeal to even the most staunch conservative supporters.
However this time Corbyn faces Boris who will be perceived as a very different proposition win a time when the quality of a leader is as important as the policy that his/her party exposes. In this scenario I predict that Labour will suffer a most grievous defeat in the upcoming elections and will be potentially relegated from the opposition party, to that of one ever more isolated on the left of British Politics and displaced in its role as the opposition by the growing power of the Liberals and independents in the centre.
Jo Swinson's Liberals (positioned to the centre and effectively a remain party)
This party represents the centre and will no doubt gain from disenfranchised Labour voters who could never voted conservative. However, the only defining policy they apparently advocate is to reverse the referendum and stay in the EU. A path that I believe is unlikely to gain strong traction. Their policies seem to be based on negative imagery as to being against Brexit against Boris and Corbyn but having no clear vision of polices that would drive Britain into a successful future. This lack of an aspirational Vision is a major political weakness at this phase of Britain's cycle.Thus they could be nicknamed the are not party.
As such their voting base will only grow on the back of disenfranchised remain Laborites and Conservatives and by default I would expect them to displace Labour as the main opposition party. However the biggest block this party faces is Jo Swinson herself.Althoigh a refreshing honest face in British politics as a leader she lack gravitas and just does not provide the sense of confidence that the rudder of the national government would be in sound hands in the rapids ahead,
Tomorrow in the Brexit Election Part 2 The Leave Parties, we will look at the other parties and our prognosis for the election.